NBAD vs GCC Banks. 8 June, 2015

Transcription

1 vs GCC Banks 8 June,

2 Disclaimer To the fullest extent allowed by applicable laws and regulations, National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC (the Bank ) and any other affiliate or subsidiary of the Bank, expressly disclaim all warranties and representations in respect of this communication. The content is confidential and is provided for your information purposes only on an as is and as available basis and no liability is accepted for or representation is made by the Bank in respect of the quality, completeness or accuracy of the information and the Bank has undertaken no independent verification in relation thereto nor is it under any duty to do so whether prepared in part or in full by the Bank or any third party. Furthermore, the Bank shall be under no obligation to provide you with any change or update in relation to said content. It is not intended for distribution to private investors or private clients and is not intended to be relied upon as advice; whether financial, legal, tax or otherwise. To the extent that you deem necessary to obtain such advice, you should consult with your independent advisors. Any content has been prepared by personnel of the Global Markets at the Bank and does not reflect the views of the Bank as a whole or other personnel of the Bank 2 2

3 Foreword Welcome to our vs GCC banks report. Many of you will be familiar with a similar publication that we do on a periodic basis whereby we compare with US, UK and European banks. In this report we compare with some of our main peers from the GCC countries. The approach we have followed for the comparison is as follows: We compare the peer banks across various parameters such as credit ratings, CDS spreads, RoE, Capital Adequacy, etc. We have used composite ratings for this analysis i.e. the average of the ratings assigned by three leading rating agencies Moody s, S&P and Fitch in order to provide a holistic view of the credit strength of each bank. We have deliberately made the report text-light and chart-based in an attempt to make it easier to digest. Hopefully you will find it both interesting and useful. If you have any feedback on the report, or indeed would like to discuss any of the point highlighted, please do contact me. Regards, Chavan Bhogaita Market Insights & Strategy Global Markets Chavan.bhogaita@nbad.com

4 Rating comparison vs GCC banks Moody's S&P Fitch Composite Rating Outlook Score* Rating Outlook Score* Rating Outlook Score* Rating Composite Score National Bank of Abu Dhabi Aa3 Stable 4 AA- Stable 4 AA- Stable 4 AA Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank A1 Stable 5 A Stable 6 A+ Stable 5 A Union National Bank A1 Stable 5 NR NR - A+ Stable 5 A+ 5 - First Gulf Bank A2 Stable 6 NR NR - A+ Stable 5 A Emirates NBD Baa1 Stable 8 NR NR - A+ Stable 5 A bank Baa2 Stable 9 BBB+ Stable 8 A Stable 6 BBB Qatar National Bank Aa3 Stable 4 A+ Stable 5 AA- Stable 4 AA Commercial Bank of Qatar A1 Stable 5 A- Negative 7 A+ Stable 5 A 6 87 Doha Bank A2 Stable 6 A- Stable 7 A+ Stable 5 A 6 - Samba Financial Group Aa3 Stable 4 A+ Negative 5 A+ Stable 5 A Banque Saudi Fransi Aa3 Stable 4 A Stable 6 A Stable 6 A+ 5 - National Commercial Bank A1 Stable 5 A+ Negative 5 A+ Stable 5 A National Bank of Bahrain Baa3 Negative 10 NR NR - BBB Negative 9 BBB Arab Banking Corporation Ba1 Positive 11 BBB- Stable 10 BBB- Stable 10 BBB National Bank of Kuwait Aa3 Stable 4 A+ Stable 5 AA- Stable 4 AA- 4 - Commercial Bank of Kuwait A3 Stable 7 NR NR - A+ Stable 5 A 6 - Bank Muscat SAOG A1 Negative 5 A- Stable 7 A- Stable 7 A 6 - National Bank of Oman A3 Negative 7 NR NR - BBB+ Stable 8 BBB+ 8-5-yr CDS level** Notes: * Scoring is derived based on the rating assigned by the rating agencies. AAA or equivalent being the best with rank 1, followed by AA+ or equivalent as 2, AA or equivalent as 3 and so on; ** CDS is in basis points and levels are for 5 th June 2015; Source: Bloomberg 4 4

5 CDS (bps) vs GCC banks (cont d) Banks composite credit rating vs 5-year CDS spread is the only bank from the GCC to be rated in the double-a category by all three major agencies with Stable outlook AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ Notes: X-axis represents the composite rating. The ratings have been arranged from higher to lower starting from AA, followed by AA- and so on; CDS levels are for 5 th June 2015; Source: Bloomberg 5 5

6 Basel II Total capital adequacy ratio FY 2014 Total capital adequacy ratio Total capital adequacy ratio vs Composite rating National Bank of Abu Dhabi 16.40% 24% 35% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 21.03% First Gulf Bank 17.50% Union National Bank 19.90% Emirates NBD 21.10% bank 16.62% 23% 22% Qatar National Bank 16. Commercial Bank of Qatar 15.22% Doha Bank 15.03% Banque Saudi Fransi 17.26% Samba Financial Group 19.90% National Commercial Bank 17. Arab Banking Corporation 34.30% National Bank of Bahrain 21.10% National Bank of Kuwait 14.50% Commercial Bank of Kuwait NA Bank Muscat SAOG 15.92% National Bank of Oman 14.60% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports 6 6

7 Basel II Total capital adequacy ratio (cont d) FY 2014 Total capital adequacy ratio Total capital adequacy ratio vs Comp. rating Total capital adequacy ratio trend National Bank of Abu Dhabi 16.40% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 21.03% First Gulf Bank 17.50% Union National Bank 19.90% Emirates NBD 21.10% bank 16.62% Qatar National Bank 16. Commercial Bank of Qatar 15.22% Doha Bank 15.03% vs UAE & 22% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 24% 22% vs UAE & Banque Saudi Fransi 17.26% Samba Financial Group 19.90% National Commercial Bank 17. Arab Banking Corporation 34.30% National Bank of Bahrain 21.10% National Bank of Kuwait 14.50% Commercial Bank of Kuwait NA Bank Muscat SAOG 15.92% National Bank of Oman 14.60% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) 24% 35% 23% 22% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ 25% 24% 23% 22% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports 7 7

8 Basel II Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio FY 2014 Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio vs Composite rating National Bank of Abu Dhabi 15.04% 22% 33% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 17.01% First Gulf Bank 16. Union National Bank 18.70% Emirates NBD 18.00% bank 15.26% Qatar National Bank 16. Commercial Bank of Qatar 13.06% Doha Bank 14.68% Banque Saudi Fransi 14.78% Samba Financial Group 19. National Commercial Bank 14.70% Arab Banking Corporation 17.08% National Bank of Bahrain 32.00% National Bank of Kuwait 13. Commercial Bank of Kuwait NA Bank Muscat SAOG 13.03% National Bank of Oman 12.30% 11% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports 8 8

9 Basel II Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio FY 2014 Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio vs Comp. rating Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio trend National Bank of Abu Dhabi 15.04% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 17.01% First Gulf Bank 16. Union National Bank 18.70% Emirates NBD 18.00% bank 15.26% Qatar National Bank 16. Commercial Bank of Qatar 13.06% Doha Bank 14.68% vs UAE & AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 23% 22% 11% 10% vs UAE & Banque Saudi Fransi 14.78% Samba Financial Group 19. National Commercial Bank 14.70% Arab Banking Corporation 17.08% National Bank of Bahrain 32.00% National Bank of Kuwait 13. Commercial Bank of Kuwait NA Bank Muscat SAOG 13.03% National Bank of Oman 12.30% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) 22% 33% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ 11% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports 9 9

10 Return on equity FY 2014 Return on equity* National Bank of Abu Dhabi 15.36% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 16.01% First Gulf Bank 17.30% Union National Bank 12.52% Emirates NBD 11.62% bank 15.69% Qatar National Bank 19.04% Commercial Bank of Qatar 11.40% Doha Bank 12.00% Banque Saudi Fransi 14. Samba Financial Group 13.60% National Commercial Bank 20.09% Arab Banking Corporation 14.42% National Bank of Bahrain 6.44% National Bank of Kuwait 10. Commercial Bank of Kuwait 8.81% Bank Muscat SAOG 12.93% National Bank of Oman 14.58% Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports Return on equity vs Composite rating 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% CBK 5% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- Notes: * Return on equity is calculated as: [ Net income available to shareholders in FY 2014 / (Total equity for FY Total equity for FY 2013) / 2 ] * 100 BB

11 Return on equity (cont d) FY 2014 Return on equity Return on equity vs Comp. rating Return on equity trend National Bank of Abu Dhabi 15.36% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 16.01% First Gulf Bank 17.30% Union National Bank 12.52% Emirates NBD 11.62% bank 15.69% Qatar National Bank 19.04% Commercial Bank of Qatar 11.40% Doha Bank 12.00% vs UAE & 11% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 28% 26% 24% 22% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% vs UAE & Banque Saudi Fransi 14. Samba Financial Group 13.60% National Commercial Bank 20.09% Arab Banking Corporation 14.42% National Bank of Bahrain 6.44% National Bank of Kuwait 10. Commercial Bank of Kuwait 8.81% Bank Muscat SAOG 12.93% National Bank of Oman 14.58% Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports 11% 9% 7% 5% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) CBK AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ 22% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) CBK 11 11

12 Return on assets (cont d) FY 2014 Return on assets* National Bank of Abu Dhabi 1.59% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 2.09% First Gulf Bank 2.78% Union National Bank 2. Emirates NBD 1.46% bank 2.46% Qatar National Bank 2.25% Commercial Bank of Qatar 1.64% Doha Bank 1.90% Banque Saudi Fransi 1.96% Samba Financial Group 2.37% National Commercial Bank 2. Arab Banking Corporation 1.95% National Bank of Bahrain 0.92% National Bank of Kuwait 1.30% Commercial Bank of Kuwait 1. Bank Muscat SAOG 1.79% National Bank of Oman 1.71% Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports Return on assets vs Composite rating 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% CBK 0.7% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- Notes: * Return on assets is calculated as: [ Net income available to shareholders in FY 2014 / (Total assets for FY Total assets for FY 2013) / 2 ] * 100 BB

13 Return on assets (cont d) FY 2014 Return on assets Return on assets vs Comp. rating Return on assets trend National Bank of Abu Dhabi 1.59% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 2.09% First Gulf Bank 2.78% Union National Bank 2. Emirates NBD 1.46% bank 2.46% Qatar National Bank 2.25% Commercial Bank of Qatar 1.64% Doha Bank 1.90% vs UAE & 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% vs UAE & Banque Saudi Fransi 1.96% Samba Financial Group 2.37% National Commercial Bank 2. Arab Banking Corporation 1.95% National Bank of Bahrain 0.92% National Bank of Kuwait 1.30% Commercial Bank of Kuwait 1. Bank Muscat SAOG 1.79% National Bank of Oman 1.71% Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) CBK AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% vs GCC banks (ex UAE & Qatar) CBK 13 13

14 has a strong international footprint Country International footprint outside local operation National Bank of Abu Dhabi UAE 16 countries Union National Bank UAE 4 countries (Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt & China*) Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank UAE 2 countries (UK & India) First Gulf Bank UAE 5 countries (Libya, Qatar, Singapore, Hong Kong* & India*) Emirates NBD bank Banque Saudi Fransi Samba Financial Group National Commercial Bank Qatar National Bank UAE UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Qatar 9 countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Singapore, UK, India*, Qatar, Channel Islands, China, & Iran*) 9 countries (Egypt, Hong Kong, India, Qatar, UK, US, Bangladesh*, Nepal* & Pakistan*) Local presence only 4 countries (UK, UAE, Qatar, & Pakistan) 6 countries (Bahrain, Lebanon, UK*, Singapore*, Japan* & South Korea*) 22 countries (Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Libya*, Mauritania, South Sudan (Juba), Sudan, Tunisia, China, Indonesia, India, Singapore, France Switzerland & UK) Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar Local presence only has one of the largest international networks amongst the Middle East banks and is also governed by some of the key regulators around the world including PRA/FCA (U.K.), Fed (U.S.), HKMA (Hong Kong), CBRC (China), Banque De France, FINMA (Switzerland), and Bank Negara (Malaysia) in addition to the U.A.E. Central Bank US (Washington, D.C.) Channel Islands Libya Egypt Sudan UK (London) France (Paris) Switzerland (Geneva) Jordan Kuwait Bahrain UAE Oman China (Shanghai) Hong Kong Doha Bank Qatar 14 countries (Canada, UK, Germany, Turkey, India, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Kuwait, UAE & South Africa) Malaysia (KL) National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 16 countries (Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, Egypt, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, UK, France, Turkey, Switzerland, USA, Singapore, China, Vietnam) Brazil Commercial Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Local presence only Arab banking Corporation Bahrain 16 countries (Algeria, Brazil, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Jordan, Libya, Russia, Singapore, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkey, UK, US) National Bank of Bahrain Bahrain 2 countries (UAE & Saudi Arabia) Bank Muscat SOAG Oman 4 countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Singapore) National Bank of Oman Oman 2 countries (UAE & Egypt) Note: * International presence include representative offices; Source: Zawya, Bank websites 14 14

15 The safest name you can bank upon Global Finance magazine has, once again, named as the Safest Bank in the Middle East & Africa based on its exclusive survey published in the November 2014 issue. The banks were selected through an evaluation of long-term credit ratings from Moody s, Standard & Poor s and Fitch and total assets of the 500 largest banks worldwide. continued to take the top spot in the Safest Bank in the Emerging Markets category, a survey conducted by Global Finance during the same period. was ranked 25th in the World s 50 Safest Banks survey conducted by Global Finance during the same period, up 10 positions from the previous year. is proud to have been ranked in the World s 50 Safest Banks since Safest Banks in the Middle East & Africa: National Bank of Abu Dhabi (UAE) 2. National Bank of Kuwait (Kuwait) 3. Qatar National Bank (Qatar) 4. Financial Group (Saudi Arabia) 5. National Commercial Bank (Saudi Arabia) 6. Al Rajhi Bank (Saudi Arabia) 7. Riyad Bank (Saudi Arabia) 8. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (UAE) 9. SAAB (Saudi Arabia) 10. Banque Saudi Fransi (Saudi Arabia) Safest Banks in the EM: National Bank of Abu Dhabi (UAE) 2. China Development Bank (China) 3. Agricultural Development Bank of China (China) 4. Export-Import Bank of China (China) 5. Korea Finance Corporation (South Korea) 6. Industrial Bank of Korea (South Korea) 7. Korea Development Bank (South Korea) 8. National Bank of Kuwait (Kuwait) 9. Export-Import Bank of Korea (South Korea) 10. BancoEstado (Chile) 15 15

16 Appendix As mentioned at the start of this report, we have used composite ratings for this analysis i.e. the average of the ratings assigned by three leading rating agencies Moody s, S&P and Fitch in order to provide a more representative view of the credit strength of each bank. The composite rating is calculated as follows: A score is assigned to the rating from each rating agency: AAA or equivalent being the best with a score of 1, followed by AA+ or equivalent as 2, AA or equivalent as 3, AA- or equivalent as 4 and so on; For example is rated Aa3/AA-/AA- by Moody s/s&p/fitch. So the scores are 4/4/4; Hence the average of the scores is 4 which indicates a composite rating of AA- for ; In case the average score is not an absolute number e.g (average of 4, 5, & 4 ) the final score is derived by rounding off the average score to the nearest whole number. In this case

17 Contact Rakesh Sahu / Chavan Bhogaita Market Insights & Strategy Global Markets National Bank of Abu Dhabi Tel: chavan.bhogaita@nbad.com 17 17