The Role of the IMF in the Financial Crisis

Transcription

1 The Role of the IMF in the Financial Crisis Age Bakker Executive Director, IMF National Bank of Romania, Bucharest December 17, 2009

2 Outline The IMF: functions and governance The financial crisis: where are we now? Challenges for Central and Eastern Europe 2

3 How is the IMF run? Board of Governors: : One governor from each of 186 member countries (meets once a year). International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC): 24 Governors (meets twice a year). Executive Board: : 24 Executive Directors (meets three times a week). Crucial aspect Crucial aspect of the IMF s governance: nearly all decisions are made by consensus. 3

4 The IMF s s Executive Board Countries with own Executive Director: China, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, United States. The other 178 members are represented by 16 Executive Directors. 4

5 5 The role of quotas A member's quota is broadly determined by its economic position relative to other members. The quota determines: Subscriptions: resources which the member provides to the Fund. Voting power: voice to influence the IMF s s decision making. Access to financing: up to 200 % of quota annually and 600 % cumulatively (higher in exceptional circumstances).

6 Examples of Voting Power United States 16.77% Japan 6.02% Germany 5.88% United Kingdom 4.86% France 4.86% China 3.66% Netherlands 2.34% India 1.89% Australia 1.47% Mexico 1.43% Spain 1.39% Romania 0.48% Saudi Arabia 3.16% Russia 2.69% Netherlands Constituency 4.78% 6

7 The Netherlands Constituency Armenia Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Georgia Israel Macedonia Moldova Montenegro Netherlands Romania Ukraine Fund program $ 900 mln (running) Fund program $ 1600 mln (running) Fund program $ 1200 mln (running) Fund program (being negotiated) Fund program (being negotiated) Fund program $ mln Fund program $ mln (suspended) 7

8 The IMF and the World Bank IMF and World Bank complement each other s s work. IMF s s main focus: short-term term macro- economic stability, balance-of of-payments support. World Bank s s main focus: long-term development, structural reform and poverty reduction. 8

9 The IMF s s roles in the global crisis Firefighter: providing financial assistance to countries that need it. Coach: providing advice on how to get individual countries and the global financial system back to health. Architect: providing recommendations on how to overhaul the global financial system. 9

10 Firefighter for emerging economies... The IMF has provided loans and credit lines worth $174 billion to 23 emerging market countries Ukraine $ 17.6 bln Hungary $ 17.0 bln Pakistan $ 11.6 bln Iceland $ 2.2 bln Latvia $ 2.4 bln Belarus $ 3.6 bln Mexico (Flexible Credit Line) $ 50.8 bln Romania $ 18.3 bln Poland (Flexible Credit Line) $ 22.1 bln Colombia (Flexible Credit Line) $ 11.2 bln Serbia $ 4.2 bln Angola $ 1.4 bln 10

11 ... and for low-income countries Concessional lending by the IMF is helping 29 low-income countries weather the crisis Liberia Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Haiti Malawi Nicaragua Madagascar Zambia Afghanistan Cote d Ivoire Ghana $ 315 mln $ 152 mln $ 150 mln $ 134 mln $ 119 mln $ 106 mln $ 94 mln $ 91 mln $ 85 mln $ 600 mln $ 620 mln 11

12 What is an IMF loan for? An IMF loan helps countries resolve balance of payments problems and restore long-term economic growth. The economic policies that underpin a loan are formulated by the country in consultation with the IMF. It is crucial that the government and the public support the program: ownership. 12

13 How the IMF is adapting lending Introducing more flexibility in its loans. Slimming down the number and scope of conditions. Seeking to protect the most vulnerable people from the effects of the crisis. 13

14 How much is available to lend? IMF resources for lending are provided by members through quota payments. G-20 Summit (April, 2009) increased IMF resources to $750 billion. The IMF also agreed to an SDR allocation of $ 250 billion. 14

15 Coach and advisor The IMF s s surveillance role at 3 levels: Global: World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report. Regional: Regional Economic Outlooks. Bilateral: regular checkups of countries, known as Article IV consultations. Financial Sector Assessments 15

16 Advice to deal with financial crisis Fiscal stimulus by G20 countries up to 2% GDP. Repair financial systems by recapitalizing banks and isolating bad assets. Strengthen financial regulation 16

17 Architect Improve surveillance of global economic developments and policies. Strengthen economic policy coordination. Improve regulation and supervision of internationally active financial institutions. Enhance financing arrangements. 17

18 New Initiatives Early Warning Exercise G20 mutual assessment framework Financial Stability Board Action Plan Quota and governance reform IMF 18

19 Impact Crisis on Central and Eastern Europe Countries vulnerable because of: Large current account deficits Dependency on capital inflows and FDI Dependency on remittances Foreign currency mismatches Issue: role of foreign banks (Vienna initiative) 19

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21 Sharp Contraction of GDP Country Armenia Bulgaria Macedonia Moldova Romania Ukraine

22 Correction of Current Account Country Armenia Bulgaria Macedonia Moldova Romania Ukraine

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24 Challenges for Central and Eastern Europe Restore macroeconomic stability Regain investor confidence Improve business climate Prepare for EU membership (Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro) Prepare for euro adoption 24

25 25 Thank you