EUROPE QUARTER 1, 2016
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- Erick Farmer
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1 EUROPE QUARTER 1, 2016 May 2016
2 INTRODUCTION This report: Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe. Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market. Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels Reports on the 1 st quarter of 2016 Week 01, 2016 till week 13,
3 EUROPE OVERVIEW (Weighted average) 3,8% 3,6% 1,6% 3,1% 3,0% 1,9% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 1,5% 2,4% 1,3% 0,7% 0,7% 2,1% 2,0% 0,3% 0,8% 1,5% 2,6% 2,3% 2,2% 0,8% 1,8% 1,6% 1,3% 1,3% 0,7% -0,1% -0,6% Unit value change Volume change Nominal Value Growth (*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK. 3
4 Q GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2016) Nominal Growth Finland Norway Sweden Russia Estonia Latvia Denmark Lithuania Belarus Ireland Great Britain Netherlands Germany Poland Ukraine Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Moldova France Switzerland Austria Slovenia Hungary Romania Portugal Spain Italy Growth Rate above Europe Average Croatia Growth Rate between Zero and Europe Average Growth Rate below Zero Serbia Albania Montenegro Bosnia- Herzegovina Macedonia Greece Bulgaria Turkey 4
5 Q GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2015) Unit Value Growth Finland Norway Sweden Russia Estonia Latvia Denmark Lithuania Ireland Great Britain Netherlands Germany Poland Belarus Ukraine Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Moldova France Switzerland Austria Slovenia Hungary Romania Portugal Spain Italy Growth Rate above Europe Average Croatia Growth Rate between Zero and Europe Average Growth Rate below Zero Serbia Albania Montenegro Bosnia- Herzegovina Macedonia Greece Bulgaria Turkey 5
6 Q GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2015) Volume Growth Finland Norway Sweden Estonia Russia Latvia Denmark Lithuania Ireland Great Britain France Netherlands Belgium Switzerland Germany Czech Republic Austria Slovenia Poland Slovakia Hungary Belarus Romania Moldova Ukraine Portugal Spain Italy Growth Rate above Europe Average Croatia Growth Rate between Zero and Europe Average Growth Rate below Zero Serbia Albania Montenegro Bosnia- Herzegovina Macedonia Greece Bulgaria Turkey 6
7 Q GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2015) 9,7% 5,4% -0,3% -2,5% 0,8% -0,7% -1,5% -0,4% -1,6% 3,1% 3,3% 3,3% 3,4% 1,5% 0,1% 3,4% 3,6% 3,1% 0,8% 2,2% 2,5% 4,1% 1,8% 1,9% 2,2% 2,2% 1,3% 1,5% 1,9% 1,4% 1,9% -0,3% 0,1% 0,4% 0,5% 0,7% 0,1% 0,4% 0,8% 0,8% -0,6% -0,3% -1,8% - -0,8% - 4,6% 4,8% 1,3% 4,4% 3,3% 0,5% 8,5% -2,8% -11,5% -6,1% Unit value Volume growth Nominal Value Growth 7
8 DETAILS BY COUNTRY
9 AUSTRIA 5,9% 2,6% 3,3% 0,8% 3,7% 2,0% 1,8% 3,3% 2,5% 0,9% 2,7% 0,4% 2,0% 2,7% 2,5% 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% 3,9% 1,9% 3,0% 1,4% 1,6% 1,9% -0,7% -0,9% -0,2% -0,3% -0,3% -0,5% -2,3% -1,0% -3,5% ** Only Grocery retail from Q1 14-Q4 15, for all other periods Grocery and Drug retail 9
10 BELGIUM 5,7% 3,7% 2,2% 2,2% 0,0% 2,7% 2,4% 0,2% 0,0% 2,0% 1,4% 1,4% 0,8% 1,5% 1,0% 0,4% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,3% -0,2% -0,1% -0,6% 1,5% 2,3% -0,8% 3,4% - 10
11 CZECH REPUBLIC 4,4% 3,5% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 3,0% 2,1% 3,4% 3,2% 1,4% 2,9% 2,6% 1,8% 3,4% 1,9% 3,1% 1,0% -1,6% -0,3% 0,4% 1,4% 0,6% 0,1% -0,2% -0,9% -1,5% 0,6% 0,8% -0,2% - 11
12 DENMARK 1,8% 1,5% 0,1% 1,3% 1,0% 0,6% 0,2% 1,0% 0,8% 0,7% 0,9% 1,0% 0,9% 0,7% 0,5% 1,5% 0,4% 0,0% 0,6% 0,4% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,1% 0,1% -0,1% -0,2% 0,0% -0,2% -0,4% 0,3% 12
13 FINLAND 4,1% 0,5% 3,6% 2,8% 0,8% -2,3% -1,6% -1,6% -0,1% - 0,8% -2,1% 0,2% -1,3% - 1,8% -0,7% -0,7% -1,4% 0,9% -2,7% -1,9% -0,6% -0,4% -0,5% -0,9% -1,4% -2,0% -0,9% -0,2% - -0,3% -2,5% -5,0% -3,2% -2,8% 13
14 FRANCE 2,4% 2,2% 2,2% 2,0% 1,3% 1,6% 0,6% 1,8% 2,0% 1,9% 0,7% 1,5% 0,4% 0,8% 0,8% 0,2% 1,0% 1,3% 0,8% 1,4% 0,6% 0,6% 1,0% 0,6% 0,6% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% -0,7% Click & Drive channel included from 2013 data (2014 trends) Convenience Stores included from 2014 data (2015 trends); 14
15 GERMANY 3,5% 2,8% 2,4% 2,0% 2,5% 2,1% 3,3% 1,5% 1,6% -0,1% 1,3% 0,8% 3,0% 0,6% 1,5% 1,3% 0,4% 1,0% 0,9% 0,2% 2,4% 0,4% 1,5% -0,2% 1,4% 1,5% -0,2% -0,9% -0,8% -0,4% -2,4% -1,6% 15
16 GREECE 5,4% 0,1% -2,4% -2,2% -0,7% -0,7% -1,4% 0,9% 0,2% 0,7% 0,7% -0,5% 0,0% 0,4% -0,7% -0,2% -0,6% -0,8% -0,7% - -3,1% 1,0% 2,5% - -1,5% -2,2% -0,5% 3,4% 0,9% 0,8% -1,4% -2,3% -2,6% -3,9% -11,5% -6,1% 16
17 HUNGARY 6,4% 5,1% 3,4% 4,8% 2,3% 3,5% 1,6% 4,2% 4,4% 2,5% 4,9% 4,9% 3,9% 3,2% 3,0% 5,8% 4,3% 5,5% 2,4% 4,6% 1,3% 3,7% 0,4% 2,5% 1,9% 2,2% 1,9% 1,9% 2,7% 1,5% 3,1% 3,3% -3,3% 17
18 IRELAND 4,0% 2,9% - 0,5% 0,6% 2,0% 0,3% 1,0% 0,2% 0,9% 2,3% 0,8% -0,6% -1,4% 0,6% 1,8% -0,5% -2,3% 0,7% 0,3% 0,4% 2,4% 2,4% 0,0% 4,6% -0,6% 2,2% -4,0% - -4,0% 18
19 ITALY 1,5% 1,8% 1,9% 2,0% 0,9% 1,4% 1,0% 1,8% 1,9% 0,3% -0,2% -0,5% - -0,8% -0,7% 0,5% 0,2% -0,1% -0,6% -0,6% -0,2% -0,9% 0,0% 0,4% 0,6% -0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,1% -0,3% -2,5% ,3% 19
20 NETHERLANDS 1,6% 3,2% 1,5% 0,6% 0,9% 1,8% 0,6% 1,4% 2,1% 2,0% 0,7% 0,9% 0,8% 0,9% 1,4% 0,2% 0,7% 1,3% -1,6% -0,9% 0,0% -0,1% 0,0% -0,2% -0,5% -0,6% -0,4% -1,3% - -0,6% 20
21 NORWAY 6,0% 4,3% 4,3% 3,0% 2,8% 3,0% 3,9% 1,8% 4,2% 2,6% 3,0% 3,1% 3,6% 1,3% 3,5% 1,4% 3,3% 2,9% 0,1% 1,5% 1,3% 2,2% 2,5% 3,2% 2,1% 1,8% 2,3% 1,0% 0,5% -0,1% 2,1% 2,5% 0,8% 21
22 POLAND Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 4,8% 4,0% 3,6% 3,2% 2,4% 2,2% 2,6% 4,5% 4,4% 0,7% 0,8% -0,1% 0,3% 1,0% 2,7% -0,2% 1,4% 0,0% - 3,1% 0,2% 2,7% -0,1% -0,1% 1,5% -0,5% 1,4% 0,1% **Data has been reworked since Jan'2013 because of transition to new database platform (CIP) 0,5% 22
23 PORTUGAL 3,1% 2,5% 3,6% 2,3% 1,8% 0,5% 0,6% -0,6% -0,5% - 1,4% 1,3% 1,8% 0,5% 0,2% 0,5% -0,1% 0,0% -0,3% -1,0% -1,0% -0,9% -0,4% -0,4% -0,6% -1,4% -1,8% -1,5% -2,4% 0,9% -1,3% -1,8% 23
24 SLOVAKIA 4,5% 4,1% 3,5% 3,2% 3,3% 3,7% 3,2% 1,8% 0,7% 3,6% 3,3% 1,4% 3,8% 4,1% 0,6% -2,6% 0,9% 0,9% 0,4% 1,3% 0,5% -0,3% 1,0% 0,7% 0,8% 0,4% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% -0,1% -0,1% -0,8% 24
25 SPAIN 3,0% 3,1% 2,7% 2,4% 1,6% 1,8% 2,0% 1,9% 1,3% 2,2% 1,5% 0,7% 1,4% 0,9% 0,6% 0,9% 0,3% 2,1% 0,7% 1,0% 0,9% 0,2% 0,7% 0,9% 1,4% 0,8% -0,4% -0,7% -0,1% -0,6% - -1,4% 25
26 SWEDEN 4,9% 4,2% 3,5% 1,3% 3,9% 1,4% 3,3% 2,5% 2,4% 0,1% 2,7% 3,8% 1,0% 2,3% 3,4% 1,5% 2,2% 1,9% 0,8% 2,5% 3,1% 1,9% 1,4% 2,8% 2,6% 0,6% 1,8% 1,4% 0,8% 0,6% 0,2% -0,2% 2,6% 1,9% 26
27 SWITZERLAND 2,7% 1,5% 0,7% 0,1% 1,0% 0,8% 1,5% 0,5% 0,4% 0,7% 0,4% 0,5% 0,1% -0,3% -0,3% 0,9% 0,1% 0,8% -1,0% - -0,4% -1,3% -1,6% -1,6% -1,5% -0,7% -0,3% -1,3% -1,5% -1,3% -2,4% -0,7% -2,3% 27
28 TURKEY 16,9% 14,7% 13,6% 12,3% 13,5% 13,7% 7,9% 5,0% 13,1% 12,4% 10,6% 3,8% 5,4% 2,9% 9,9% 3,4% 5,4% 4,7% 3,6% 2,9% 0,3% 9,5% 9,7% 6,8% 8,2% 9,4% 9,7% 9,5% 9,5% 9,0% 9,0% 8,1% 9,2% 8,5% 6,4% Due to exclusion of Alcohol and Tobacco, history is updated from Q
29 UK 2,1% 3,2% 2,2% 2,3% - 1,3% -0,6% -1,9% -0,2% -0,3% -0,5% -1,6% -3,8% - 0,7% -2,5% -1,8% 0,2% -0,3% -0,5% 0,5% -0,2% -0,7% -0,4% -0,4% -0,8% 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% -0,3% -0,5% -0,6% -0,5% 29
30 Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Israel Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Romenia Russia Serbia Slovenia Ukraine EXTENDED EUROPE Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles Categories covered in food and drug channels
31 BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA Aug-Dec 12 Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 2,2% -1,3% -0,2% -0,5% -1,4% -2,9% -0,8% -1,5% -1,9% -0,8% 0,1% -2,5% -2,4% -0,2% -4,5% 3,3% 2,5% 4,0% 3,0% 3,0% -0,5% -0,7% -1,8% - 1,8% -0,9% -2,6% -2,6% 4,6% 8,2% -3,6% -7,3% -4,7% -8,4% -3,4% -6,1% -8,1% -10,1% 31
32 BULGARIA Dec-Apr 14 Apr- Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 2,8% 1,9% 2,0% 3,6% 1,9% 0,9% 0,3% 2,2% -0,4% 0,8% 0,3% 0,5% 0,1% 0,4% 0,3% 2,0% 0,1% 2,7% -0,8% -0,7% 1,0% 0,9% 0,0% -3,7% -2,5% 32
33 CROATIA Aug-Dec 12 Dec-Apr 13 Apr -Aug 13Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr -Aug 14Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr -Aug 15Aug-Dec 15 1,6% 2,4% 2,9% 1,4% 0,5% -0,8% -2,0% 0,3% -0,2% -0,5% -0,7% 0,0% -0,1% ,1% -2,1% -1,9% -0,7% -0,9% -0,2% -0,2% -1,3% 0,6% 0,6% 0,0% -3,3% -2,5% -3,0% -4,4% -5,3% -4,6% -5,1% -6,2% 33
34 ESTONIA 6,3% 5,7% 5,0% 4,8% 2,4% 5,3% 1,0% 2,4% 2,0% 2,8% 3,9% 2,8% 0,7% 0,5% 2,3% 3,9% 0,4% 2,0% 1,9% 3,2% 0,7% 2,5% 1,9% 1,0% 0,1% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,7% 0,6% 2,2% 1,3% 0,9% 34
35 ISRAEL 2,2% 2,4% 3,3% 3,0% 1,8% - 0,7% -2,1% -1,4% -0,9% -1,0% -0,1% 0,3% -2,1% -1,9% 0,3% -0,4% -0,7% -0,5% -2,0% -1,9% 0,1% -2,8% -2,5% 0,5% 0,6% -0,6% - 0,5% -2,5% -2,0% -2,5% -2,0% -3,8% -4,5% -5,7% 35
36 FYR MACEDONIA Apr-Aug 11 Aug-Dec 11 Dec-Apr 12 Apr-Aug 12 Aug-Dec 12 Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 18,3% 17,7% 14,3% 15,3% 20,2% 13,1% 12,1% 12,1% 1 8,1% 6,9% 14,3% 0,0% 8,5% 7,9% 6,1% 6,0% 4,4% 6,1% 12,2% 10,8% 11,3% 6,9% 6,6% 4,3% 2,5% 6,8% 2,5% 5,0% 3,5% 4,1% 3,0% 2,6% 0,9% 1,3% 0,8% -0,6% -2,3% 7,9% 5,3% 4,6% 1,8% 2,8% 2,6% 36
37 KAZAKHSTAN DJ-JF 2014 FM-MA 2014 AM-MJ 2014 JJ-JA 2014 AS-SO 2014 ON-ND 2014 DJ-JF 2015 FM-MA 2015 AM-MJ 2015 JJ-JA 2015 AS-SO 2015 ON-ND % 22% 9,3% 24% 13% 20% 9% 22% 9% 14% 22% 7,9% 17% 2,8% 16% 2,7% 1,0% 12% 7% 8,0% -1,0% 13,2% 6,2% 0% -6,4% 14% 15% 10% 11% 14,4% 13,7% 12,8% 11,3% 5,3% 3,2% 2,6% 5,1% -2% -7,7% -2% -7,2% -13,2% -12,2% -10% -10% 37
38 LATVIA 4,6% 4,1% 2,0% 3,1% 3,4% 0,4% 3,7% 1,8% 3,0% 2,6% 2,0% 1,0% 1,5% 2,9% 2,9% 1,9% 0,3% 0,9% 3,4% 0,5% 1,3% 1,0% 0,1% 0,9% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,0% -0,5% -0,4% -0,6% - 38
39 LITHUANIA 5,4% 4,4% 3,9% 4,2% 3,9% 4,4% 3,0% 2,9% 1,8% 1,9% 3,2% 0,8% 2,6% 1,4% 2,1% 1,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,2% 1,9% 0,9% 1,9% 1,0% 1,8% 0,4% 1,4% 1,9% 2,4% -0,4% -1,0% -0,9% -0,2% Historical data has been changed as there is a change in Total Country selection from 2014 onwards 39
40 MONTENEGRO Aug-Dec 12 Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 12,1% 6,3% 3,1% 1,6% -20,0% -20,5% -16,9% -18,8% 0,4% -5,9% -5,5% 5,8% 2,4% 3,3% 3,6% -3,2% -5,6% -19,9% -16,5% -34,4% 0,9% -30,6% 2,5% 1,5% 0,3% -0,7% -0,3% -0,4% -6,1% -1-5,8% -13,9% -16,8% -9,9% -12,5% -14,3% -30,8% -29,7% 40
41 ROMANIA (*) Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 9,6% 5,3% 8,5% 2,9% 3,1% -0,2% 0,4% -0,8% - 3,1% 6,3% 4,3% 0,3% 2,3% 2,4% 0,4% 2,0% 0,5% 1,0% 0,4% 0,0% 0,1% 0,0% -0,4% 0,4% 0,2% -2,7% - -3,3% -1,6% -2,2% -2,3% -2,2% -6,1% -6,1% (*) reworked data with all the major RMS categories included except for: Cigarettes, Make-up&Incontinence, reduction of VAT from 24% to 9% for food categories 41
42 RUSSIA DJ'14 / JF'14 FM'14 / MA'14 AM'14 / MJ'14 JJ'14 / JA'14 AS'14 / SO'14 ON'14 / ND'14 DJ'15 / JF'15 FM'15 / MA'15 AM'15 / MJ'15 JJ'15 / JA'15 AS'15 / SO'15 ON'15 / ND'15 DJ'16 / JF'16 8,1% 10,4% 5,1% 13,0% 15,0% 0,0% 9,0% 11,6% 2,1% 11,0% 0,3% 9,3% 9,9% 9,8% 12,8% 0,6% 13,7% ,8% 11,4% 14,8% 14,9% 14,4% 13,8% 14,2% 8,9% 9,4% 9,0% 9,5% 10,8% 10,7% 10,9% 10,9% 12,2% 11,8% -1,3% 5,3% -2,0% -1,4% -1,0% - -0,5% -3,1% -3,2% -2,6% -2,4% Minor changes in back data are due to transition of Cigars, Cigarettes and Tobacco to CIP -2,9% 42
43 SERBIA Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec15 15,7% 12,5% 5,9% 17,4% 14,0% 6,2% -6,6% 2,7% -5,4% -2,7% 6,0% 4,3% 0,5% 1,3% 2,3% 1,4% 1,4% 0,0% 0,9% - -1,4% -0,4% - -4,0% - -7,8% -4,1% -10,2% -10,6% -6,3% 0,9% 0,4% -0,4% 3,9% 2,3% 43
44 SLOVENIA Dec-Apr 12 Apr-Aug 12 Aug-Dec 12 Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 2,0% 2,0% -0,6% -0,5% -1,6% -2,7% -2,1% 1,5% 0,7% -0,8% 0,4% -1,0% -0,6% 0,7% 0,5% -0,2% 3,2% -2,1% 0,8% -0,5% -1,4% - -3,2% 0,1% -4,6% 0,6% -0,9% -2,6% - -2,0% -2,0% -1,4% -1,0% -2,4% -0,7% -1,0% -1,8% 3,1% -1,0% 2,5% -0,5% -3,3% -4,3% -4,5% 44
45 UKRAINE Aug-Dec 12 Dec-Apr 13 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 27,8% 15,6% 11,8% 3,8% 1 0,0% 1 25,2% 35,6% -10,5% 23,9% 21,6% 16,5% 30,0% 13,9% 18,3% 11,8% 9,5% 9,6% 18,4% 3,1% 10,8% 8,0% 7,2% 3,1% 10,5% 6,4% 3,3% 3,1% 3,8% 4,0% -0,9% -2,0% -6,1% 23,8% 40,5% 36,4% -12,6% -12,6% 45
46 Glossary Nominal value growth: Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories Unit value growth ( price change): Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc) The change in average price per unit may result from: Price changes of individual products Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc. Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc. Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics. The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience cost of living in their actual grocery shopping behaviour. Volume growth: Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products The three components are related: Value Growth = Unit Value Growth * Volume Growth 46
47 Appendix: Calculations For each country, the value growth index V and the Unit Value growth index I have been calculated for each available product category c. The overall Unit Value Index across all categories has been calculated as a weighted average of the category indexes V where each category is weighted according to its share in t the covered expenditures in the end period (Young Index). c 1; t = SalesValue[ c, t] SalesValue[ c, t 1] Volume, Value, Unit Value growth indexes are multiplicatively related to each other : Value Growth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth For ease of presentation, the relative volume change (in percentages) has been approximated by taking simple differences (difference is immaterial) : VolumeChange = ValueChange UnitValue change More detail on subject, see : ILO Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice. s/cpi/index.htm I I c t 1; t t 1; t SalesValue[ c, t] SalesVolume[ c, t] = SalesValue[ c, t 1] SalesVolume[ c, t 1] c c c = w I w = c t t 1; t t SalesValue[ c, t] SalesValue[ c, t] c 47
48
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