Consumer Price Index Report

Transcription

1 Directorate of National Statistics Consumer Price Index Report First and Second Quarter Mogadishu Somalia

2 Executive Summary The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by Somali consumers for goods and services. The Consumer Price Index is measured by the Directorate of National Statistics and reported Quarterly and is often used as a measure for cost of living and economic conditions. The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, beverages, fuels, transportation fares and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month across the Mogadishu from 120 retail establishments, and other service providers associated within the CPI market basket. Prices of most goods and services are obtained through personal visits by Statistics staff and it reflect the goods and services within the CPI market basket. In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights that represent their importance. Local data are then combined to obtain a national average. The expenditure weights of individual commodity/service sections in the CPI in March based on the price level, as well as those updated to the price levels in the preceding year (i.e. December 2014) and in the preceding month (i.e. June ), are shown in Table 1 and Table 2 of this report for reference. Calculating index changes Movements of the indexes from one month to another usually are expressed as percent changes, rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, whereas percent changes are not. The example shown in the box on this page illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes. Percent changes within the CPI publication reflects for (1) monthly, (2) annual and (3) historical trends since base period are computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would be if the current rate were maintained for the 3 periods specified in the latter. 2

3 Input Particulars Quarterly change In the June quarter compared with the March quarter: The consumers price index (CPI) fell Percentage change of CPI analytical 0.3 percent to a level of 0.83 measures, June quarter The largest downward / upward contributions to the change in the CPI 3-month rate between March and June came from:- Food & non-alcoholic beverages: prices, overall, fell by 0.7% between February and June, compared with a rise of 0.2% between the same Three months a year earlier. The downward contribution came from price movements for food most notably for bread, oil and sugar (where there were price falls at a number of major market chains) and a range of fruits because of aid food. Consumer Price Index Dec 2014 April May June All Items FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMINICATION RECREATION AND CULTURE Alcoholic beverages & EDUCATION tobacco: prices, overall, RESTAURANTS increased by 1.4% between AND HOTELS MISCELLANEOUS December 2014 and June GOODS AND, compared with a larger SERVICES rise of 3.1% between the same six months a year earlier. Transport: prices, overall, rose by 2.0% between December 2014 and June compared with a smaller fall of 0.6% between the same six months a year earlier. Most of the downward contribution came from motor fuel prices falling at a quicker rate than a year ago. The average petrol price rose by 1.0p per litre between December 2014 and June to 1.5p. The average diesel price rose by 1.0 p over the same period to 1.5p. Same as diesel the Petrol rose by 1.0 p over the same period to 1.5p. As for transport, the Composite CPI remained unchanged over a year earlier but the CPI(A) rose by 1.6%. 3

4 Recreation & culture: prices, overall, fell by 0.9% between December 2014 and June compared with a smaller fall of 0.5% between the same six months a year earlier. The downward contribution was broad-based across the sector, there was a slight rise on June because of Eid-ul Fitri. Clothing & footwear: prices, overall, rose by 3.7% between December 2014 and June, compared with a slight fall of 1.4% between the same six months a year ago. Prices for clothing always rise up in new year and May during the Eid-ul Fitri sales period. However, the rise this year was larger than in recent years with reports of better than expected sales. Furniture, household equipment & routine maintenance: prices, overall, rose by 2.5% between December 2014 and June, compared with a larger fall of 3.1% between the same six months a year ago. The upward contribution came from a range of goods, most notably household cleaning products, where there were a number of price recoveries this May compared with sales a year ago Compared with March 2014, increases in the section indices in March were recorded for electricity, gas and water (21.9% in the Composite CPI and 41.1.% increase in the CPI, housing (4.2% and 5.2%); meals bought away from home (4.2% and 4.1%); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (2.8% and 2.6%); miscellaneous services (1.8% and 2.2%); miscellaneous goods (1.4% and 1.7%). On the other hand, year-on-year Increases in the section indices were recorded in June for durable goods (-5.8% in the Composite CPI and -5.7% in the CPI(A)) as well as clothing and footwear (-3.5% and -1.7%). 4

5 Table 1: First Quarter Consumer Price Index Percentage change of CPI analytical measures, March quarter Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar All Items FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE Education HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION AND CULTURE RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES Chart 1: Percentage of 1st Quarter percentage changes Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Percentage point Contributions 5

6 Table 2: Second Quarter Consumer Price Index Percentage change of CPI analytical measures, June quarter Dec 2014 April May June All Items FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMINICATION RECREATION AND CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES hly percentage changes Chart 2: Percentage Changes of 2nd Quarter of CPI April May June Percentage Point Contributions 6

7 Table 3: Combined of both first and Second quarter Percentage Changes Consumer Price Index Percentage Changes Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June All Items FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE Education HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION AND CULTURE RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES Percentage changes Chart 3: Percentage Quarterly Movements Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Percentage point contributions In the June quarter, the main contributors to the CPI rise in Mogadishu were housing, water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels (+18.7 percentage points), Health (+15.7 percentage points) and Clothing & footwear (+7.1 percentage points). 7

8 The rise in the CPI was partially offset by a fall in Recreation & culture (-18.8 percentage points). This was mainly driven by a price decrease in Diaspora holiday travel & accommodation (-5.1 per cent). The main contributor to the rise in the education group for the June quarter was reopening of Schools after long break of Ramadan and Eid, education (+12.2.%) driven by increases of fees. Secondary education (+4.7%) and preschool and primary education (+5.6%) also increased following the commencement of the new school year. Over the twelve months to the June quarter, the education group rose 5.4%. Inflation Rate The inflation rate is a measure of the rise of the general level of the prices of goods and services over a period of time. The principal measure of price inflation is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index. Inflation and Consumer Price Index in First two Quarters =100 Expenditure groups Weight CPI First Quarter CPI Second Quarter Inflation Rate (%) General index number Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Clothing and Footwear Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and other Fuels Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation and Culture Education Restaurants and Hotels Miscellaneous Goods and Services

9 CPI GROUPS, Weighted average Index numbers(a) Period FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION AND CULTURE Education RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES December January Feb March April May June