Giant Oil Fields of the World

Transcription

1 Giant Oil Fields of the World Presentation AIM Industrial Contact Day Monday 23 rd May 25 Fredrik Robelius M.Sc. Petroleum Engineering (almost ) M.Sc. Engineering Physics

2 Introduction Is Peak Oil here now Peak oil 8, 7, 6, Prod Prod Forecast cum prod -22 cum prod Forecast 1,6,, 1,4,, 1,2,, 1 b/d 5, 4, 1,,, 8,, 1 b 3, 6,, 2, 4,, 1, 2,, Or have we heard all this before???

3 Oil Crisis in relation to oil price Oil Price in US$ 23 5) Pricepanic US Dollar ) Yom Kippur war ) UN Iraq embargo ) Nationalization of Anglo-Iranian ) Six day war ) Suez crisis ) War in Iraq Source: BP Statistical Review

4 Common factors: Geographic The oil did not reach the market Media and some governments: We are running out of oil! Today - Same old story again? or is the oil price a bad parameter? Source: CIA World Fact Book

5 Definitions Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR) cumulative production plus the estimated remaining reserves Gb Giga barrel = 1 9 barrels = billion barrels =.159x1 9 m 3 =159 million m 3 Giant Oil Field an oilfield with estimated ultimate recoverable oil of more than 5 million barrels (>.5 Gb)

6 Källa: AAPG, OGJ, Simmons & Company International The Important Parameter Giant Fields Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to: Number of fields URR Daily Production Giant Oil Fields ~1 % Other Oil Fields ~99 % URR of the Giant Oil Fields >5% URR from other oil fields < 5% Production from the 1 largest giants <5% Other Oil Field Production >5%

7 Top 18 Giant Fields Field Name Country Discovery year Range of URR [GB] Ghawar Saudi Arabia Burgan Greater Kuwait Safaniya Saudi Arabia Bolivar Coastal Venezuela Berri Saudi Arabia Rumalia N&S Iraq Zakum Abu Dhabi Cantarell Complex Mexico Manifa Saudi Arabia Kirkuk Iraq Gashsaran Iran Abqaiq Saudi Arabia Ahwaz Iran Marun Iran Samotlor Russia Agha Jari Iran Zuluf Saudi Arabia Prudhoe Bay Alaska Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

8 Where are the giant fields?

9 Discovery Trends of Giant Fields Discovered Recoverable Reserves in Giant Fields [Gb] Number of Giant Oil Fields Discovered 2 Gb & Number Source: AAPG, UHDSG

10 Discovery of Giant Fields 35 giant oil fields discovered during last decade None of the fields will have a production capability above 1,, b/d The largest fields discovered the last decade: Field Country Discovery Year Ultimate Recoverable Reserves [Gb] Kashagan Kazakhstan Azadegan Iran Roncador Brazil Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia Sihil Mexico Ourhoud Algeria Thunder Horse US GoM Source: AAPG, OGJ

11 Comparison of number of fields and their URR Field Name Country Discovery year Range of URR [GB] Ghawar Saudi Arabia Burgan Greater Kuwait Safaniya Saudi Arabia Bolivar Coastal Venezuela Berri Saudi Arabia Rumalia N&S Iraq Zakum Abu Dhabi Cantarell Complex Mexico Manifa Saudi Arabia Kirkuk Iraq Gashsaran Iran Abqaiq Saudi Arabia Ahwaz Iran Marun Iran Samotlor Russia Agha Jari Iran Zuluf Saudi Arabia Prudhoe Bay Alaska Reserves [Gb] Field Country Discovery Ultimate Year Recoverable Kashagan Kazakhstan Azadegan Iran Roncador Brazil Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia Sihil Mexico Ourhoud Algeria Thunder Horse US GoM Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

12 Production from Cusiana/Cupiagua Daily Prod (b/d) 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Daily Prod Cum Prod ,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Cum Prod (b) Source: AAPG, OGJ

13 Production from Cantarell 2,5, 2,, Daily Prod Cum Prod 12,,, 1,,, Daily Prod (b/d) 1,5, 1,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, Cum Prod (b) 5, 2,,, Source: AAPG, OGJ

14 Oil Production from Mexico and their Giant Oil Fields 3,5, 3,, Mexico Oil Production Mexico Giant Fields Production Daily Production (b/d) 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Source: OGJ, AAPG, PEMEX, UHDSG

15 Oil Production from Norway and their Giant Oil Fields 4,, 3,5, Norway Total Norway Giants Daily Production (b/d) 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Source: NPD

16 Oil Production from Saudi Arabia and Ghawar Oil Field 1,, 9,, 8,, Saudi Oil Production Ghawar Production Daily Production (b/d) 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Source: OGJ, AAPG, Saudi Aramco, UHDSG

17 Conclusion 2 years ago, 15 fields had the capacity to produce more than 1,, b/d. Today only four field can produce that much: Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), 1948 Kirkuk (Iraq), 1938 Burgan Greater (Kuwait), 1927 Cantarell (Mexico), 1976

18 Conclusion Producing regions will have a peak The Middle East is a key factor The giants are getting smaller, both to size and number When will the peak be? It depends on the: demand for oil, future exploration and the decline of the giants My guess/prediction is around 21