AMICUS: National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base Bringing together the best information for best decision
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1 AMICUS: National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base Bringing together the best information for best decision Jim Gould 1,2, Andrew Sullivan 1,2 Miguel Cruz 1,2 Chris Rucinski 2,3 & Mahesh Prakash 2,3 1 CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra ACT 2 CSIRO Digital Productive Flagship- Digital Technology & Services for Disaster Resilience, Canberra, ACT 3 CSIRO Computational Informatics, Clayton, VIC ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIP
2 Amicus: (an independent adviser) National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base (NFBKB) Outline National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base Relevance Science Software architecture Benefits and applications Future development Amicus- Fire behaviour DSS NOT another bushfire simulator Will NOT replace PHEONIX RapidFire- but will be COMPLIMENTARY
3 Relevance National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base (NFBKB) Significant increase in frequency of severe disastrous bushfire causing unprecedented land lasting socioeconomic and ecological impacts Current fire behaviour tools for prediction fail to incorporate the latest knowledge in fire science Limiting forecast quality and impairing critical decision making regarding community protection and safe and effective fire-fighting.
4 Relevance National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base (NFBKB)
5 Evolution of decision making tools (1960 s+) Australia vs. United States 1960 s 1970 s 1980 s 1990 s Slide rules and tables CSIRO Fire Calculator Australia Slide rules tables Software & tables Server / Internet US Behave+ Farsite GSPro FireFamily+
6 Fire behaviour models and applications Models Fire spread sustainability Rate of fire spread Onset of crowning Fire intensity Flame height Scorch height Residence time Burnout time Spotting Fuel consumption Smoke production Applications Fuel management Prescribed burn planning Interface hazard rating Pre-suppression planning Initial attach dispatching Firefighter safety Fire behaviour forecasting Bushfire suppression planning Large scale fire projections
7 NFBKB Structure
8 NFBKB Sub-systems and applications
9 Amicus- phase I Fire behaviour calculations Software development Amicus- NFBKB will be built using Workspace workflow environment (CSIRO Computational Informatics- Computational Modelling Workspace workflow input and output operations Example of workspace operation that calculates fire danger rating for grasslands.
10 Amicus- phase I Fire behaviour calculations Software development Workspace users may construct, modify and execute workflows using an intuitive graphical editor which inspects any input and output on workflow by using custom build widgets A workflow that plots temperatures against fire danger indices using newly developed fire model operations.
11 Amicus: Phase I Fire behaviour calculations Beta GUI layout
12 Amicus: Phase II NFBKB Concept Overview Vegetation description Fire history maps Bushfire fuel classifications Weather/behaviour data Predicted rate of spread (m h -1 ) 95% confidence interval Model comparison 0 Line of agreement Observed rate of spread adjusted for slope and fuel moisture (m h -1 ) Photo/Video/PDF documentation Fire behaviour details
13 Amicus- phase II NFBKB Understanding natural variability in fire spread Source Cheney et al (1998); IJWF
14 Rate of fire spread Amicus- phase II NFBKB Fire behaviour prediction data assimilation Calibrated predictions Fire observations Ref: Cruz & Alexander (2013); EM&S Wind speed
15 Amicus- phase II NFBKB Fire behaviour prediction- ensemble methods Input distribution Output distribution
16 Amicus- linkage Australian bushfire fuel classification Vegetation description Fire history maps Fuel type matching Ground truthing Photo/Video Documentation Fuel Models Input fuel parameters: Fire behaviour Fire danger Prescribed burn planning Fuel hazard assessment Fire effects etc Fuel attributes: Fuel hazard rating Load Height Curing Particle size etc Stage III
17 Amicus- NFBKB Application and benefits Operational tool for different platforms- PC, Tablets, Smartphone, Web base including the latest fire science NFKB will be a powerful tool for fire behaviour analysis and prediction for FBAN(Fire Behaviour Analysts), fire managers, etc Centralised repository of national fire behaviour data NFBKB will have the capacity to include photographs, videos, documents of pre-during and post-burn operation development DSS on prescribed burning Will integrate the Australian Bushfire Fuel Classification which will improve our overall understanding and prediction of fires
18 Amicus- Beta release CSIRO SYMPOSIUM Fire Behaviour The State of the Science for Practitioners When: October 2013 Where: CSIRO Discovery Centre, Canberra, ACT To register your attendance at the symposium please go to: IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE BUSHFIRE CRC, ACT PARKS AND CONSERVATION, ACT RURAL FIRE SERVICE AND NSW RURAL FIRE SERVICE.
19 Thank you Jim Gould Principal Research Scientist Ecosystem Sciences- Bushfire Dynamics and Application t e [email protected] w Acknowledgement: Thanks to Ryan Fraser (CSIRO) and CSIRO Disaster Resilience stream within the Digital Productivity and Services Flagship Government and Commercial Services theme for funding this endeavour. ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIP
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