HEATWAVE JANUARY DATE: 26 January 2014

Transcription

1 PREPARED BY: Systems Capability DATE: 26 January 2014

2 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION RESERVE LEVELS DURING THE HEATWAVE EVENTS ON THE NEM POWER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTING TO LOW RESERVES RISKS TO THE NEM POWER SYSTEM DURING MINIMUM RESERVES MAXIMUM OPERATIONAL DEMAND GENERATION SOURCES FOR OPERATIONAL DEMAND VICTORIA SOUTH AUSTRALIA CONTRIBUTION OF EMBEDDED SOLAR GENERATION VICTORIA SOUTH AUSTRALIA CONTRIBUTION OF SCHEDULED AND NON-SCHEDULED WIND POWER BUSHFIRE THREAT DEMAND FORECASTING VICTORIA SOUTH AUSTRALIA MARKET PRICING AEMO MEDIA RESPONSE CONCLUSIONS January 2014 Page 2

3 1 Introduction Victoria and South Australia experienced record temperatures between Monday 13 January and Friday 17January Details for the heatwave in South Australia are: First ever five-day period above 42 C (13-17 Jan 2014). Hottest five-day maximum temperature on record (13-17 Jan 2014). Hottest maximum five-day average temperature: 43.6 C. Fourth hottest day on record (45.1 C, 14 Jan 2014). Details for the heatwave Victoria are: First ever four-day period above 41 C (14-17 Jan 2014). Hottest four-day maximum average temperature on record (14-17 Jan 2014). Hottest maximum temperature four-day average: 43.1 C. During the 2014 heatwave, Victoria and South Australia both experienced near-record demands on the NEM power system. The level of demand experienced has not been seen since the last heatwave in 2009 where record operational demands were set. The NEM power system proved capable during this high demand period, with demand able to be supplied at all times. While minimum reserve levels were at times low, AEMO did not require any load shedding. Small distribution level local outages were experienced due to distribution equipment failures. AEMO has gathered data from the 2009 and 2014 heatwave events (detailed in the summary of operational and market data).this paper is a summary of the events and presents interpretations and observations of this data. 2 Reserve levels during the heatwave AEMO manages reserve levels to accommodate the loss of the two largest generators in a single NEM region at any given time. The table below shows the minimum reserve levels experienced during the 2014 heatwave: Table 1: Minimum reserve levels experienced during the 2014 heatwave in Victoria Victoria /1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Reserve at time of maximum operational demand (MW) 2,212 (17:00 hrs) 816 (16:00 hrs) 602 (15:30 hrs) 1,188 (16:00 hrs) 1,197 (15:30 hrs) Minimum reserve experienced during the day 2,212 (17:00 hrs) 792 (19:00 hrs) 498 (14:55 hrs) 1,129 (16:30 hrs) 1,095 (15:50 hrs) Table 2: Minimum reserve levels experienced during the 2014 heatwave in South Australia South Australia /1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Reserve at time of maximum operational demand (MW) 679 (18:30 hrs) 818 (15:00 hrs) 616 (17:30 hrs) 624 (18:30 hrs) 536 (16:30 hrs) Minimum reserve experienced during the day 674 (18:35 hrs) 660 (17:35 hrs) 268 (15:30 hrs) 611 (18:50 hrs) 505 (16:50 hrs) 26 January 2014 Page 3

4 Minimum reserve was not always observed at peak operational demand times in both Victoria and South Australia. 2.1 Events on the NEM power system contributing to low reserves Lower reserves were experienced in Victoria on 14 and 15 January 2014 during the heatwave. This was due to generation outages during this time. The table below shows all generator outages (including Basslink) experienced during the heatwave. Table 3: Supply outages during 2014 heatwave Asset Outage duration Cause Implications Loy Yang A3 (Vic) 14/1 13:45 to 16/1 08:45 Auxiliary supply problems Loss of 560 MW Loy Yang B1 and B2 (Vic) 14/1 to 17/1 inclusive Cooling problems Output reduced from 1120 MW to 680 MW Torrens Island B3 (SA) 14/1 18:35 to 15/1 15:40 Boiler Issue Loss of 200 MW Basslink 14/1 18:04 to 14/1 19:02 Transformer Temperature protection at VIC end Loss of up to 594 MW into VIC 2.2 Risks to the NEM power system during minimum reserves During the 2014 heatwave there were periods with low minimum reserve levels where the failure of any single major generator, interconnector, or transmission asset would have potentially resulted in load shedding. Of particular concern was the operation of Basslink. Basslink was consistently supplying approximately 500 MW into Victoria from Tasmania during periods of low reserve. Basslink has a temperature operating range of 36 C at the Tasmanian end and 46 C at the Victorian end. Temperatures during the event were close to these limits. The loss of Basslink at 500 MW would have caused the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) contracts to be applied, resulting in 650 MW of pot lines to be curtailed for up to 90 minutes. If at any time the load shedding required to maintain system stability was greater than 650 MW or longer than 90 minutes as supplied from the RERT contracts, shedding of Victorian and South Australian industrial, commercial, and domestic customer loads may have been required. Reserve levels in Victoria were at healthier levels on Thursday 16/1 and Friday 17/1 when the Loy Yang Generator was returned to service. In addition, AEMO observed higher wind generation in South Australia on these days. 3 Maximum Operational Demand Operational demand is defined as the demand met by scheduled + semi-scheduled + nonscheduled wind generation with aggregate capacity 30 MW or greater. This is the demand seen by the National Electricity Market (NEM) participant generators. It does not include demand met by embedded generation sources, such as solar PV, or other generators embedded in the distribution networks that do not meet the definition above. During the 2009 heatwave, Victoria and South Australia experienced record demand, as shown in the table below: Table 4: Record operational demands experienced during the 2009 heatwave 26 January 2014 Page 4

5 State Date Time Maximum Operational Demand Maximum Temperature Victoria 29 January :00 hours 10,494 MW 42.7 C South Australia 29 January :30 hours 3,383 MW 43.0 C NOTE: Record operational demand for South Australia was recorded on 31/1/2011 at 3,393 MW. All times shown are market time, which is Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) The 2014 heatwave maximum operational demand was slightly less than the record demand of 2009, as shown in the following table: Table 5: Maximum operational demands 2014 heatwave State Date Time Maximum Operational Demand Maximum Temperature Victoria 16 January :30 hours 10,307 MW 43.9 C South Australia 16 January :30 hours 3,281 MW 44.2 C Observations: In 2009 most schools had commenced. This was not the case in There is more embedded generation installed in 2014 than in Temperatures were higher in 2014 than 2009, yet operational demand was slightly less. 4 Generation Sources for Operational Demand 4.1 Victoria The graph below shows the generation mix for Victoria during the 2014 heatwave, including embedded solar. Graph 1: Contribution to peak operational demand by generation source for Victoria. 26 January 2014 Page 5

6 The percentage contribution by generation type during peak operational demand is summarised in the table below: Table 6: Percentage contribution to peak operational demand by generation source for Victoria. Victoria /1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Peak operational demand (MW) 8,262 10,151 10,126 10,307 10,263 Brown Coal Generation (%) Gas generation (%) Hydro generation (%) Interconnector imports (%) Wind generation (%) Embedded solar generation (%) Observations: Victoria relies heavily on brown coal and gas. In addition to supplying demand, they also supply spinning reserves. Victoria s hydro plants were the third highest contributor behind brown coal and gas, followed by the interconnectors as the fourth highest contributor. Embedded solar and wind contributed very small percentages at the time of peak operational demand. Embedded solar contributed more than the wind generation on 15 and 16 January. 26 January 2014 Page 6

7 4.2 South Australia The graph below shows the generation mix for South Australia during the heatwave including the embedded solar: Graph 2: Contribution to peak operational demand by generation source for S.A. Percentage contribution by generation type during peak operational demand is summarised in the table below. Table 7: Percentage contribution to peak operational demand by generation source for South Australia South Australia /1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Peak operational demand (MW) 2,877 3,046 3,122 3,281 3,126 Gas generation (%) Brown Coal Generation (%) Interconnector imports (%) Wind generation (%) Embedded solar generation (%) Observations: Gas generation is the largest contributor to operational demand and spinning reserve in South Australia. The interconnectors were not importing power from Victoria on 17 January due to higher wind generation in South Australia on that day. 26 January 2014 Page 7

8 Wind generation generated more during the night in South Australia, and wind contributed relatively small amounts to the peak operational demand. 5 Contribution of Embedded Solar Generation 5.1 Victoria The graph below compares the Victorian operational demand during the 2009 and 2014 heatwaves. Graph 3: Operational demand comparison 2009 and 2014 with 2014 plus solar. The operational demand profiles and peak demand times are similar for both years. The yellow line is the operational demand for 2014 plus the contribution from embedded solar PV; Victoria has 520 MW of installed solar PV. The table below shows the solar PV generation contribution in Victoria (over and above operational demand) for the 2014 heatwave: 26 January 2014 Page 8

9 Table 8: Victoria - contribution of embedded solar generation during the 2014 heatwave Victoria /1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Solar PV Generation at time of peak operational demand (MW) Peak Operational Demand (MW) 8,262 10,151 10,126 10,307 10,263 Peak Operational Demand plus Solar (MW) at time of peak operational demand. 8,323 10,270 10,274 10,414 10,427 Observations: At the time of daily peak operational demand, the sum of peak operational demand plus the solar generation maximum was 10,427 MW. This did not exceed the 2009 record demand of 10,494 MW. Solar contributes a small percentage of the total demand in Victoria. Solar does not appear to be shifting the time of the peak demand in Victoria during the high demand days at this stage. This may not be the case for lower demand days combined with high solar output. AEMO is investigating this. Victorian time of day of peak operational demands in the 2009 and 2014 heatwaves are shown in the table below: Table 9: Victoria time of peak operational demand 2009 and 2014 (Market time) Victoria 26/1/09 27/1/09 28/1/09 29/1/09 30/1/ Peak operational demand time (hrs market time) 2014 peak operational demand time (hrs market time) 16:30 16:30 15:30 16:00 12:30 13/1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 17:00 16:00 15:30 16:00 15: South Australia The graph below compares South Australian operational demand during the 2009 and 2014 heatwaves. 26 January 2014 Page 9

10 Graph 4: South Australia Operational demand comparison 2009 and 2014 with 2014 plus solar. The operational demands profiles are slightly different, with a definite reduction of time spent at peak operational demand. The yellow line is the operational demand for 2014 plus the contribution from embedded solar PV. This profile for 2014 is more consistent with the 2009 demand profile. South Australia has 450 MW of installed solar PV. The table below shows the Solar PV generation contribution in South Australia (over and above operational demand) for the 2014 heatwave. Table 10: South Australia - contribution of embedded solar generation during the 2014 heatwave South Australia /1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Solar PV generation at time of peak operational demand (MW) Peak operational demand (MW) 2,877 3,046 3,122 3,281 3,126 Peak operational demand plus Solar (MW) at time of peak operational demand. 2,884 3,228 3,147 3,285 3,226 Observations: At the time of daily peak operational demand, the sum of peak operational demand plus the solar generation maximum was 3,228 MW. This does not exceed the 2009 record demand of 3,383 MW. The contribution of solar is a noticeable percentage of the total demand in South Australia. The data indicates the solar could be contributing to shifting the time of the peak demand in South Australia during the high demand days. South Australia time of day of peak operational demands in the 2009 and 2014 heatwaves are shown in the table below: 26 January 2014 Page 10

11 Table 11: South Australia time of peak operational demand 2009 and 2014 (Market time) South Australia 26/1/09 27/1/09 28/1/09 29/1/09 30/1/ Peak operational demand time (hrs market time) 2014 peak operational demand time (hrs market time) 18:00 16:00 16:30 15:00 16:30 13/1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 18:30 15:00 17:30 18:30 16:30 6 Contribution of Scheduled and Non-scheduled Wind Power The table below shows the contribution of scheduled and non-scheduled wind power in Victoria and South Australia at times of peak operational demand during the 2014 heatwave. Table 12: Contributions of scheduled and non-scheduled wind power Victoria 13/1/14 14/1/14 15/1/14 16/1/14 17/1/14 Wind generation at time of peak operational demand (MW) Peak operational demand (MW) 8,262 10,151 10,126 10,307 10,263 South Australia Wind generation at time of peak operational demand (MW) Peak operational demand (MW) 2,877 3,046 3,122 3,281 3,126 Observations: The contribution of wind generation (scheduled and non-scheduled) varied considerably throughout the week, with contributions to peak operational demand ranging from 33 MW to 233 MW in Victoria and from 65 MW to 569 MW in South Australia. Wind power contribution to operational demand was low in both Victoria (62 MW) and South Australia (71 MW) on Wednesday 15 January when reserves were at their lowest. Wind power contribution was at its highest level during the night in both states. 7 Bushfire Threat During the 2014 heatwave period, fires threatened gas and electrical infrastructure assets. AEMO monitored fire activity via the INDJI fire detection system, and remained in direct contact with the Victorian State Control Centre, state fire authorities, emergency services, and transmission network service providers. A total of 17 separate fires were assessed as posing direct threats to energy infrastructure and were monitored closely. AEMO regularly provided information to the Victorian Emergency Electricity Committee (VEEC) on implications of fire threats to the security and reliability of energy assets during the heatwave. No energy asset reclassifications were issued due to bushfires in Victoria or South Australia during the heatwave. 26 January 2014 Page 11

12 8 Demand Forecasting AEMO s demand forecasting system performed well during the peak periods, accurately forecasting peak demand on the highest demand days. This provided stakeholders with a clear picture of the situation over the peak period, and informed accurate forecasts for power system operation. Victoria and South Australia experienced higher night-time and morning electricity demand than expected. Any forecast errors were mainly seen overnight and during the morning ramp. 8.1 Victoria The graph below shows actual versus forecast demand for each day in Victoria during the heatwave as of 16:00 hours market time the day before. Graph 5: Forecast (as of 16:00 hours previous day) vs. actual demand Observations: AEMO s demand forecasting performed well during a week of record temperatures in Victoria. One notable discrepancy occurred on 14 January. Demand was not forecast to exceed 9,248 MW this was based on a lower weather forecast maximum temperature than actual at the time of the forecast and an assumed lower demand due to schools being closed and not all industry back in operation for the 2014 year. The forecast was more accurate for the similar days following. 8.2 South Australia The graph below shows the actual versus forecast for each day in South Australia during the heatwave as of 16:00 hour s market time the day before. 26 January 2014 Page 12

13 Graph 6: Forecast (as of 16:00 hours previous day) vs. actual demand Observations:A notable forecasting discrepancy occurred on 13 January when the forecast was for a peak operational demand of 2,491 MW against an actual peak operational demand of 2,877 MW. Similar to Victoria, this was due to a lower-than-actual forecast temperature at the time of forecast (16:00 hours the Friday before in this case) and conservative assumptions for school and industry demand. The forecast corrected for the following days. AEMO continues to work on demand forecasting system accuracy and has now obtained some important data for extreme heat and demand days. 9 Market Pricing Spot price volatility was observed across the market in Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania from Tuesday 14 January to Friday 17 January, including frequent negative spot prices in Tasmania. Prices were at their highest and most volatile on Wednesday 15 January. There was also high five-minute price volatility, including a high rate of trading intervals with both very high and negative prices in Victoria and South Australia. This volatility was driven by rebidding, demand fluctuations in Victoria and South Australia, and changes in Basslink flows. From Tuesday 14 January to Friday 17 January, generation in Tasmania and Victoria was offered at low or negative prices during the day. This was the result of generation in those regions pursuing energy volumes, which contributed to price volatility by reducing the amount of generation being offered at intermediate prices. It also resulted in high transfers from Tasmania to Victoria via Basslink. 26 January 2014 Page 13

14 10 AEMO Media Response Due to the high-profile interest of the 2014 heatwave event and the potential community impacts, the Single Industry Spokesperson (SIS) protocol was implemented. Under the SIS protocol, AEMO is empowered as the industry spokesperson for the event on Victorian jurisdictional matters. Given the potential impact in South Australia, South Australian Communications representatives were included as part of this. AEMO s Facebook and Twitter channels pointed to AEMO s website for current information and social media traffic included retweets of AEMO s statement by industry, media outlets, and interested parties. Media enquiries on the Thursday were at the highest levels fielded by the AEMO Media team since AEMO media responded to 35 media enquiries on Thursday 16 January and more than 50 media enquiries between 13 and 17 January. 11 Conclusions 1. The NEM power system coped during the highest continuous temperature period seen in Victoria and South Australia. Low periods of reserve were at times a cause for concern, with generation assets at Loy Yang and Torrens Island being either out of service due to faults, or limited in their output as a consequence of the heat. No power system events occurred during low reserve conditions, so load shedding during the heatwave event was avoided. At times, the loss of an interconnector or major generator would have changed the circumstances. 2. The contribution of embedded solar PV generation was more noticeable in South Australia than Victoria. The percentage of installed solar to peak operational demand (approximately 13.7%) in South Australia is higher than in Victoria (approximately 5%), resulting in a larger percentage contribution to the generation mix. 3. The contribution of scheduled and non-scheduled wind generation was also more noticeable in South Australia than Victoria. On most days in both states, wind was a small contributor at the time of the peak operational demand. Wind generation was strongest throughout the nights. 4. Fire was a threat to a number of energy assets during the heatwave, including some major gas infrastructure. AEMO worked with all appropriate parties to obtain fire information and communicated the consequences of fire damage to each asset under threat to the emergency services. No transmission level assets were damaged or reclassified due to bushfire during the heatwave. 5. Wholesale electricity prices were lower than experienced during the 2009 heatwave. As expected there was price volatility during the heatwave, and prices were above usual January averages. 6. AEMO Media responded to more than 50 media enquiries during the heatwave. Media enquires began with interest in the potential for load shedding and moved to the contribution of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. 26 January 2014 Page 14

15 VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA 2014 Extreme Weather & Demand 13 Jan Jan 2014 Summary of Operational & Market Data Observations Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Typical day in Jan 13 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2014 Wed 30 Jan 2013 VIC Region Peak record Demand was 10,494 MW on 29 Jan 2009 Melbourne CBD Minimum Temperature (ºC) Melbourne CBD Maximum Temperature (ºC) Melbourne CBD Average Temperature (ºC) VIC Actual Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 8,262 10,151 10,126 10,307 10,263 6,643 VIC Reserves at the time of Maximum Operational Demand (MW) VIC Minimum Reserves (MW) 2,212 2,212 (1700 hrs) (1900 hrs) (1455 hrs) 1,188 1,129 (1630 hrs) 1,197 1,095 (1550 hrs) 4,785 4,785 (1630 hrs) Time of VIC Maximum Operational Demand (Market time) 1700 hrs 1600 hrs 1530 hrs 1600 hrs 1530 hrs 1630 hrs VIC Forecasted Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 1 7,548 (1630 hrs) 9,248 (1600 hrs) 9,987 (1600 hrs) 10,355 (1630 hrs) 10,450 (1530 hrs) 6,925 (1630 hrs) VIC Operational Energy Consumption of Day (MWh) 149, , , , , ,811 Price at the time of Maximum Operational Demand ($/MWh) $81.63 $ $3, $1, $ $47.14 Maximum Spot Price ($/MWh) $81.63 $1, $5, $2, $2, $49.76 Time of Maximum Spot Price (Market time) # 1700 hrs 1900 hrs 1600 hrs 1630 hrs 1600 hrs 0700 hrs Minimum Spot Price ($/MWh) $32.27 $39.20 $53.40 $ $25.70 $42.69 Time of Minimum Spot Price (Market time) # 1630 hrs 0330 hrs 0300 hrs 0400 hrs 1730 hrs 0230 hrs SA Region Peak record Demand was 3,399 MW on 31 Jan 2011 Wed 23 Jan 2013 Adelaide CBD Minimum Temperature (ºC) Adelaide CBD Maximum Temperature (ºC) Adelaide CBD Average Temperature (ºC) SA Actual Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 2,877 3,046 3,122 3,281 3,126 2,011 SA Reserves at the time of Maximum Operational Demand (MW) SA Minimum Reserves (MW) (1835 hrs) (1735 hrs) (1530 hrs) (1850 hrs) (1650 hrs) 1,421 1,415 (1700 hrs) Time of SA Maximum Operational Demand (Market time) 1830 hrs 1500 hrs 1730 hrs 1830 hrs 1630hrs, 1700 hrs 1730 hrs SA Forecasted Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 1 2,491 (1730 hrs) 2,871 (1700 hrs) 3,105 (1700 hrs) 3,267 (1700 hrs) 3,162 (1600 hrs) 1,852 (1700 hrs) SA Operational Energy Consumption of Day (MWh) 50,566 57,365 60,149 64,731 58,489 39,877 Price at the time of Maximum Operational Demand ($/MWh) $ $85.60 $ $66.93 $81.90, $ $53.30 Maximum Spot Price ($/MWh) $ $1, $6, $2, $1, $56.48 Time of Maximum Spot Price (Market time) # 1600 hrs, hrs 1830 hrs 1600 hrs 1630 hrs 1600 hrs 1600 hrs Minimum Spot Price ($/MWh) $38.69 $43.63 $57.37 $51.62 $44.11 $44.43 Time of Minimum Spot Price (Market time) # 0300 hrs 0330 hrs 0400 hrs 0400 hrs 0430 hrs 0230 hrs Weather observations sourced from AEMO's weather service provider Notes: 1. Forecasted Operational Demand published by Demand Forecasting System (DFS) at 1600 hrs the day before (e.g.: for 13 Jan 2014 this w as published by DFS on 12 Jan 2014 at 1600 hrs). # Is based on the time period (0000 hrs hrs.) Figures in bold/red text indicates the Maximum for the w eek. All data is recorded at National Electricity Market Time (GMT +10:00 hrs) MW: Megaw att MWh: Megaw att hours $/MWh: Dollars per Megaw att hour Fri 17 Jan (VIC): The minimum price in VIC region w as negative because the follow ing factors occurred during same time interval: The demand in VIC region reduced due to the cool change in w eather across VIC (Melbourne CBD temp reducing from 43ºC at 1530 hrs to 30.3ºC at 1730 hrs). The netw ork constraints in SA region limited the imports to SA on VIC-SA Heyw ood interconnector. The netw ork constraints in VIC region limited the exports of the negatively priced generation in VIC to NSW. Operational Demand = Demand met by Scheduled+Semi-Scheduled+Non-Scheduled Wind Generations (aggregate capacity 30 MW). Interconnectors: The maximum Operational Import parameters on the follow ing interconnectors are as detailed below : VIC-NSW total import to VIC: 1700 MW (include Murray generation) VIC-SA total import to VIC: 680 MW(460 MW on Heyw ood & 220 MW on Murraylink), VIC-SA total import to SA: 680 MW(460 MW on Heyw ood & 220 MW on Murraylink) VIC-TAS total import to VIC: 594 MW Note: The above parameters are the maximum imports that could be fed into VIC how ever, there are certain constraints that w ould limit these imports i.e. thermal, voltage collapse, Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS). 26 January 2014 Page 15

16 VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA 2009 Extreme Weather & Demand 26 Jan Feb 2009 Observations Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 26 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb 2009 VIC Region Melbourne CBD Minimum Temperature (ºC) Melbourne CBD Maximum Temperature (ºC) Melbourne CBD Average Temperature (ºC) VIC Actual Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 6,061 8,955 10,115 10,494^ 10,412 8,128 7,341 VIC Reserves at the time of Maximum Operational Demand (MW) VIC Minimum Reserves (MW) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Time of VIC Maximum Operational Demand (Market time) 1630 hrs 1630 hrs 1530 hrs 1600 hrs 1230 hrs 1230 hrs 1730 hrs VIC Forecasted maximum Operational Demand (MW) 1 6,129 (1700 hrs) 8,723 (1430 hrs) 9,696 (1600 hrs) 10,377 (1600 hrs)10,258 (1600 hrs) 8,043 (1600 hrs) 7,155 (1730 hrs) SA Region Adelaide CBD Minimum Temperature (ºC) Adelaide CBD Maximum Temperature (ºC) Adelaide CBD Average Temperature (ºC) SA Actual Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 2,187 3,090 3,336 3,383 3,295 3,001 2,921 SA Reserves at the time of Maximum Operational Demand (MW) SA Minimum Reserves (MW) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Time of SA Maximum Operational Demand (Market time) 1800 hrs 1600 hrs 1630 hrs 1630 hrs 1500 hrs 1630 hrs 1730 hrs SA Forecasted Maximum Operational Demand (MW) 1 1,820 (1630 hrs) 2,848 (1630 hrs) 3,039 (1600 hrs) 3,195 (1730 hrs) 3,291 (1600 hrs) 2,692 (1400 hrs) 2,430 (1630 hrs) Weather observations sourced from AEMO's weather service provider Notes: 1. Pre-Dispatch Forecasted Operational Demand published by Daily Forecasting System (DFS) at 1600 hrs the day before (e.g.: for 13 Jan 2014 this w as published by DFS on 12 Jan 2014 at 1600 hrs). Figures in bold/red text indicates the Maximum of the w eek. ^ This is the Peak Actual Maximum Operational Demand in VIC. All data is recorded at National Electricity Market Time (GMT +10:00 hrs) MW: Megaw att MWh: Megaw att hours $/MWh: Dollars per Megaw att hour N/A: Not Available Operational Demand = Demand met by Scheduled+Semi-Scheduled+Non-Scheduled Wind Generations (aggregate capacity 30 MW). 26 January 2014 Page 16