Århus-seminar, Aarhus Universitet, 21. august 2009

Transcription

1 Århus-seminar, Aarhus Universitet, 21. august 2009 Demokratiseringen af Central- og Østeuropa: hvilken rolle har EU spillet? v. Jørgen Møller Spor 4: International politik og demokratisering i verden omkring os

2 Disposition 1. Forudsigelser, da kommunismen brød sammen 2. Hvordan er det gået? 3. Hvorfor er det gået sadan? 4. Chok terapi kontra gradualisme 5. Hvilken rolle har EU spillet? 6. Hvad er udsigterne i næste ring af lande?

3 1. Forudsigelser, da kommunismen brød sammen Dilemma Theoremet To summarise, price and ownership reforms presuppose each other, as do democracy and constitutionalism. Each of the economic reforms is incompatible with democracy, while constitutionalism is required for the success of ownership reform. If these premises are true, full-scale reform is impossible. Given the direction of the causal arrows, political reform without a transition to competitive markets is possible, although in the long run democracy will also be undermined if the economy stagnates. Economic reform within an authoritarian framework is even less plausible. Elster (1990)

4 Kommunismens ugunstige arv Allow me to continue with my catholic heresy and suggest that in this setting it will be demogogues, priests, and colonels more than democrats and capitalists who will shape Eastern Europe s general institutional identity. Most of Eastern Europe of the future is likely to resemble the Latin America of the recent past more than the Western Europe of the present. Irony of ironies, it may be earlier writings by American academics on the breakdown of democracy in Latin America rather than the recent literature on transition to democracy that speaks most directly to the situation in Eastern Europe. Jowitt (1992: 300)

5 2. Hvordan er det gået? Political regime forms in the post-communist setting, % Democracies Hybrid Regimes Autocracies 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: The Freedom House s Freedom in the World Survey

6 The empirical distribution of political regime forms within the postcommunist setting in Democracies Hybrid regimes Autocracies 1992 Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Romania, Russia, Ukraine Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 2007 Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Ukraine Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

7 GD P per cap ita, cons tant prices Den økonomiske udvikling The development in GDP per capita, Moldova, , 1990 = Year

8 GDP per capita (constant prices), , selected countries Hungary Estonia Bulgaria Russian Federation Georgia Turkmenistan Source: World Development Indicators 2005.

9 Tendenserne i et bredere perspektiv Voice and Accountability, New EU-members Bulgaria and Romania Belarus, Moldova Russia, and the Ukraine Latin American countries EU Rule of Law, New EU-members Bulgaria and Romania Belarus, Moldova Russia, and the Ukraine Latin American countries EU Source: Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi (2005).

10 3. Hvorfor er det gået sådan? Aktørforklaringer i litteraturen: Parlamentarisme og demokrati Parliamentary Power Index and Freedom House Index 2004 Sources: Freedom House Country ratings and M. Steven Fish s Parliamentary Power Index.

11 Aktørforklaringer i litteraturen II: Et generelt overblik The full proximate typology with empirical referents, 2005 Democracy + Ref CZE EST HRV HUN LTU LTV POL SVK SVN + Legislature - Legislature + Displ - Displ + Displ - Displ BGR ROM Defective Democracy Autocracy - Ref + Ref MKD ALB MNG - Ref MDA GEO UKR + Ref - Ref ARM KGZ RUS AZE BLR KAZ TJK TKM UZB

12 Den geografiske fordeling af parlamentarisme og præsidentialisme

13 Den geografiske fordeling af styreformer, 2005

14 Strukturforklaringer i litteraturen: Et generelt overblik The full deep typology with empirical referents, 2005 Democracy Defective Democracy Autocracy + West - West + West - West + West - West + Nooil - Nooil + Nooil - Nooil + Nooil + Legacies - Legacies + Mod - Mod + Mod - Mod CZE BGR EST ROM HRV HUN LTU LTV POL SVK SVN MKD UKR ALB MDA - Nooil GEO + Nooil MNG - Nooil + Nooil BLR - Nooil ARM + Nooil KGZ TJK - Nooil RUS AZE KAZ TKM UZB

15 The full typology of deep and the proximate packages with empirical referents Proximate package Full presence Mixed score Full absence Deep package Full presence Mixed Score CZE EST HRV HUN LTU LTV POL SVK SVN MKD ALB ARM BGR GEO KZG MDA MNG ROM RUS BLR TJK UKR Full absence AZE KAZ TKM UZB Note: bold is used to highlight the democracies and italic to highlight the autocracies.