Ten years after Bucharest, 15 April Bulgaria after accession to the EU

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1 1 Ten years after Bucharest, 15 April 2014 Bulgaria after accession to the EU

2 2 Starting with conclusions It is time to celebrate and appreciate fully EU membership Somber assessment the importance of being critical Address the gaps and build on strengths

3 3 Three problem areas The public expectations gap re: EU The catching-up gap The public policy and debate gap

4 4 Participation in policy making and debate Policy drivers Policy killers Policy takers

5 Public support and political consensus on EU membership confirmed (July 2013) 5

6 - Discrepancy between trust in EU and identity - But not a cultural thing, other factors at play 6

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8 Public expectations on EU Bulgarians tend to perceive more realistically EU s role as external agent of change 8

9 9 Needs and roles gap The EU is perceived differently in Bulgaria; E.g. EU s democracy gap is not an issue in Bulgaria, instead: The EU is perceived as an arbiter and institution of resort to compensate for dysfunctional state;

10 What is the Catch-Up Index? Are we there yet? Are the ten new, post-communist member states of the EU the EU10 catching up with the old, Western EU members? The index registers the level of convergence or divergence along four categories: Economy Quality of Life Democracy and Governance The index also includes the EU candidate and potential candidate countries, so there are 35 countries covered by the index The standardized scores of the source data are used the scores are from 100 to 0 (highest to lowest) There are two editions the 2012 Index is still unpublished

11 11 The Catching-Up Gap: EU10+1 Overall Score Group Country Rank 2013 EU15+2 Maximum 72 1 EU15+2 Average Score vs 2012 Score vs 2011 Rank vs 2012 Rank vs 2011 EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Estonia EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Poland EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Hungary EU10+1 Latvia EU10+1 Croatia EU15+2 Minimum EU10+1 Bulgaria EU10+1 Romania

12 What is the Catch-Up Index? Are we there yet? Are the ten new, post-communist member states of the EU the EU10 catching up with the old, Western EU members? The index registers the level of convergence or divergence along four categories: Economy Quality of Life Democracy and Governance The index also includes the EU candidate and potential candidate countries, so there are 35 countries covered by the index The standardized scores of the source data are used the scores are from 100 to 0 (highest to lowest) There are two editions the 2012 Index is still unpublished

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14 14 Sort of a good news Group Trends by Overall Scores and Ranking Country Overall Score 2013 Rank 2013 Score change vs 2012 Score change vs 2011 Rank change vs 2012 Rank change vs 2011 EU15+2 Sweden EU10+1 Poland EU15+2 Greece EU10+1 Bulgaria EU10+1 Romania CC Montenegro CC Serbia CC Macedonia CC Turkey PCC BiH PCC Albania

15 Clusters in Europe Catch-Up Index

16 16 Economy Group Country Economy Score Score vs Score vs Rank vs Rank vs Rank EU15+2 Maximum 75 1 EU15+2 Average 57 9 EU10+1 Estonia EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Latvia EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Poland EU10+1 Hungary EU10+1 Croatia EU10+1 Romania EU10+1 Bulgaria EU15+2 Min 32 34

17 17 Democracy Group Country Democracy Score 2013 Rank Score vs 2012 Score vs 2011 Rank vs 2012 Rank vs 2011 EU15+2 Maximum 76 1 EU15+2 Average EU10+1 Estonia EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Poland EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Hungary EU10+1 Croatia EU10+1 Latvia EU15+2 Minimum EU10+1 Bulgaria EU10+1 Romania

18 18 Quality of Life Group Country Quality of Life Rank Score vs Score vs Rank vs Rank vs Score EU15+2 Maximum 71 1 EU15+2 Average EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Estonia EU10+1 Poland EU15+2 Minimum EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Hungary EU10+1 Croatia EU10+1 Latvia EU10+1 Bulgaria EU10+1 Romania

19 19 Governance Group Country Governance Rank Score vs Score vs Rank vs Rank vs Score EU15+2 Maximum 75 1 EU15+2 Average 62 9 EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Estonia EU10+1 Poland EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Hungary EU10+1 Latvia EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Croatia EU15+2 Minimum EU10+1 Bulgaria EU10+1 Romania

20 Catching-up in Quality of Life e.g. public services - seems the most difficult 20

21 21 Positive signs: economy and democracy indicators GOVERNMENT DEBT Group Country Score Ranking EU10+1 Estonia 82 1 EU10+1 Bulgaria 77 2 EU15+2 Maximum 76 3 EU10+1 Romania 66 6 EU10+1 Latvia 64 9 EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Croatia EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Poland EU10+1 Hungary EU15+2 Average 39 EU15+2 Minimum 0 35 TRUST IN PEOPLE Group Country Score Ranking EU15+2 Maximum 87 1 EU15+2 Average 59 EU10+1 Slovenia EU10+1 Romania EU10+1 Estonia EU10+1 Poland EU10+1 Lithuania EU10+1 Croatia EU10+1 Bulgaria EU10+1 Czech Republic EU10+1 Hungary EU10+1 Slovakia EU10+1 Latvia EU15+2 Minimum 7 33

22 What if analysis useful 22

23 Marin Lessenski