Technologies for Environmentally Preferred Commercial Air Transport

Transcription

1 Technologies for Environmentally Preferred Commercial Air Transport Technische Universität Darmstadt Michael Friend Director of Technology Boeing Germany November 21, 2007 The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing. Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved. Agenda Market Outlook for the future Aviation and the Environment Global Technology development for the Environment Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.. 2 1

2 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth 12 RPKs (trillions) Historical Future Historic Growth GDP = 2.9% Passenger = 4.8% Cargo = 6.3% Long-Term Growth GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0% Cargo = 6.1% 0 Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved Long-term demand for new airplanes remains strong Units 36, , ,200 Growth 10,400 Replacement 7,800 Retained Fleet ,600 Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.. 4 2

3 Airlines will need over 28,600 new airplanes 747 and larger Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jets 3% 13% 9% 4% 22% 62% 45% 42% Includes CIS Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved. 28,600 airplanes 2.8 trillion delivery dollars* *In year 2006 dollars. 5 28,600 new airplanes delivered to a wide mix of regions and operating segments Long-Haul Network 3% Freight 3% IT/Charter 3% Latin America 6% North America 32% Europe 23% Asia- Pacific 29% Middle East 4% Africa 2% C.I.S. 4% Global & Broad Network 54% Low-Cost / Short-Haul 37% Where they ll go How they ll operate Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.. 6 3

4 Potential Challenges to Growth Aviation is highly visible. It only contributes 2% of the world s CO2 output, but because it is poised for growth it is an easy target. The introduction of new technologies today will only begin to reduce the CO2 footprint of the world fleet many years in the future, because of the fleet size. Those technologies that reduce CO2 emissions may increase other emissions such as community noise. The European ACARE targets set for industry are difficult to achieve, but might not be enough if political pressure grows. Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.. 7 The challenge How can we most effectively minimize aviation s impact on the environment specifically CO2 emissions? 4

5 Sources of human-produced CO 2 Emissions from human activities are increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases that lead to climate change. Global man-made CO 2 Of the greenhouse gases, CO2 has the longest-lasting, global effects. Aviation has made steady, significant progress MORE FUEL Early Jet Airplanes 90% Reduction in Noise Footprint HIGHER DECIBELS Relative fuel use per seat km 70% Fuel Improvement and Reduced CO2 Second Generation Jet Airplanes Noise db LESS FUEL LOWER DECIBELS EVEN LESS New Generation Jet Airplanes EVEN LOWER Nose footprint based on 85 dba. 5

6 Our strategy for creating a better future 1 Focusing on a Clear Vision Technology unlocks the future CO 2 and fuel are the priority System efficiency is essential A global approach involves and benefits everyone How can we most effectively minimize aviation s impact on the environment specifically CO2 2 Achieving Specific Metrics and Milestones emissions? Pioneer new technologies Relentlessly pursue manufacturing and lifecycle improvements Create progressive new products and services Improve performance of worldwide fleet operations 3 Delivering Global Aviation Industry Leadership Continually work together with the industry to promote effective global public policies and best practices for a better future Priority technology research for alternative fuels Demonstrating alternative, low-carbon lifecycle fuels Conducting the first biofuel demonstration on a commercial airplane Researching potential of future environmentally progressive fuels Plants, including algae, could supply fuel for the world s airplane fleet while absorbing CO 2 from the atmosphere Accelerating deployment of viable sustainable alternative low carbon lifecycle fuels Initiated industry working group to facilitate alternative fuel research 6

7 Priority technology research for fuel efficiency, emissions and noise Designing aerodynamic improvements Result: Reduces drag which reduces fuel use and emissions Researching next generation materials Result: Reduces weight, which reduces fuel use and emissions Researching propulsion systems advancements Result: Reduce fuel consumption and emissions and lowers noise Researching airplane systems advancements Result: Improving electrical source and efficiency, reducing fuel, NOx and noise Advancing more efficient operations and air traffic management Result: Reduces noise and saves up to 500 pounds of fuel on each flight Key frameworks that drive our manufacturing and lifecycle improvements An internationally recognized ISO standard to implement or improve environmental management systems Promotes environmental stewardship Continual improvement Emphasis on prevention Lean A set of progressive manufacturing principles and practices to reduce environmental impact Increases operating efficiency Minimizes waste Emphasis on conservation of resources A commitment to recycling during all phases of the lifecycle Ensures airplane materials, including metals and composites, are recycled for high-value industrial uses Identifies environmentally progressive end-of-service solutions Promotes best practices 7

8 Waste reductions achieved through lean manufacturing at Renton site 23% Reduction in hazardous waste Lean 24% Reduction in acreage 41% Reduction in factory size 52% Reduction in power consumption Source: data The 787 Dreamliner is cleaner, quieter and more efficient The 787 Dreamliner delivers: 20%* Reduction in fuel and CO 2 28% Below 2008 industry limits for NOx 60%* Smaller noise footprint Advanced Wing Design Innovative Systems Technologies Enhanced Flight Deck Composite Primary Structure Advanced Engines and Nacelles *Relative to the 767 8

9 The is cleaner, quieter and more efficient The delivers: 16%* Reduction in fuel and CO 2 28% Below 2008 industry limits for NOx 30%* Smaller noise footprint New Wing Design Enhanced Flight Deck Advanced Materials 787 Dreamliner Technology High-bypass Engines Advanced Nacelles and Chevron Nozzles *Relative to the Improving the performance of worldwide fleet operations Opportunities to Reduce Emissions, Fuel and Noise Airplane Improvements Offer airplane hardware and software modifications to improve lifecycle performance Efficient Airline Operations Work with airlines to develop and implement best practices and operational procedures Airspace Efficiency Work with Air Traffic Management to optimize airspace navigation and efficiency around the world Lowers operating costs and reduces fuel use, emissions and noise Reduces fuel use, emissions and noise Reduces fuel use, emissions and noise 9

10 Airplane performance improvements are part of ongoing programs Next-Generation 737 Improvements Engine improvements lowering emissions Automated throttle control reduces takeoff noise footprint Increased precision navigation for operational efficiency Blended winglets for 3-5% aerodynamic efficiency Lighter weight carbon brakes Flight deck noise reduction 777 Improvements Wing modified to reduce drag Wing systems revision reduces drag New raked wingtip for improved aerodynamic efficiency Wing control surface tailoring reduces drag Engine inlet treatment for noise reduction Maneuver load alleviation for lower empty weight Efficient operating practices improve fuel and CO2 efficiency Sample Fuel Per CO2 Savings Target Opportunities Examples CO2 Annual Savings Reduce Aircraft Weight Plan More Efficient Flights Fly More Efficient Flights Catering weight program Aircraft servicing Flight plans Speed schedule Aircraft loading Reserve fuels Idle reverse Efficient routings 2 3 Million lbs Million lbs Million lbs Total Savings: Million lbs Source: Boeing analysis for a 115 narrowbody airplane operation (22B ASMs) 10

11 Air traffic modernization can provide significant near-term benefits ATM enhancements could improve fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions by up to 12% IATA More efficient routing reduces time in the air Better arrival management and speed control for sequencing, separation, and weather rerouting reduces inefficient delays Boeing is working with the industry to address important environmental issues facing aviation Working with industry partners to research and demonstrate sustainable alternative low carbon lifecycle fuels Initiated first comprehensive airplane recycling program Aircraft Fleet Recycling Association Promoting air traffic management development and demonstrations 11

12 CO 2 : A global challenge needs a global solution Wherever it is emitted, CO 2 mixes throughout the atmosphere, where it remains for approximately 100 years. And, regardless of where it is absorbed from the atmosphere, the entire world benefits from the reduction. Plant-based feedstocks naturally remove CO 2 from the atmosphere Plant-based fuel Plant-based feedstocks absorb CO 2 emissions as the feedstocks grow. Petroleum-based fuel CO 2 emissions from petroleum-based fuel are NOT absorbed because the source of the fuel is not plant-based. 12

13 Sustainable biojet fuel development timeline Establish Feasibility Biojet fuel technical performance demonstrated Research and Development Second-generation biojet fuel research & development Infrastructure integration challenges identified & worked Commercial Viability Cost-effective, environmentally progressive options move forward Alternate fuel drivers Airlines are seeking to: Reduce exposure to fuel price volatility Position for future fuel policies Reduce aviation s impact on global warming Future oil availability 13

14 Types of alternative fuels 1. Synthetic (from gas, coal or bio) 2. Biofuels (from oil-based feedstock such as soy beans and algae) 3. Other (ethanol, methane, liquid hydrogen) Soybeans Space shuttle s LH 2 tank Fuel should perform similarly to Jet-A Fuel performance challenges: Freezing point High temperature thermal stability Energy density Storage stability Elastomeric compatibility Must be a drop-in solution Room Temperature Biodiesel Cruise Flight Temperature 21C -30C 14

15 Boeing has studied alternate fuels that have low life-cycle CO 2 emissions 4 Relative CO 2 emissions as compared to jet fuel Jet fuel from crude oil Liquid hydrogen from water and nuclear power Biojet fuel Liquid methane from natural gas Methanol from natural gas Jet fuel from coal with CO 2 sequestration Jet fuel from coal Liquid methane from coal Liquid hydrogen from coal Biofuel feedstocks must come from sustainable practices Global CO 2 emissions that cause global warming Other 3% Deforestation 25% Petroleum 31% Coal 26% Natural Gas 15% Slash and burn deforestation Source:

16 Sustainability: Researching feedstock capability for biojet fuels 180, , ,000 Oil yield (kg/hectre) 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, times more fuel from future algae process than soybeans 0 Soybean (US) Rapeseed (Europe) Babassu (Brazil) Palm oil (Malaysia) Algae (world?) Sustainability: Soybean feedstock would be unable to meet aviation fuel demand If the world airline fleet used 100% biojet fuel from soybeans, it would require 322 billion litres. = World fleet in billion litres of biojet fuel (85 billion gallons) This would require 5,750 sq km of land (about the size of Europe) Planted with soybeans Soybeans (560 ltr oil/hectare) 575 million hectares (5.75 million sq km) soybeans 16

17 Sustainability: Evaluating the potential of other future feedstocks, such as algae, to meet aviation s fuel demand If the world airline fleet used 100% biojet fuel from soybeans, it would require 322 billion litres. = World fleet in billion litres of biojet fuel (85 billion gallons) This would require 35k sq km land (about the size of Belgium) 94K ltr/hectare yield? Algae Pond 34,250 sq km (3.4 million hectares) algae ponds Waste Water Pond Discharge to river/ocean 17

18 Natural Algae Growth Growing Algae Use sewage water output (scaled version) Encourage further algae growth in racetrack ponds Harvest algae Discharge clean water 18

19 Algae Oil Extraction Process Harvested Algae Examples are: Expeller/Press Hexane Extraction Supercritical Fluid Enzymatic Ultrasonic Etc. Oil Extraction Process Biocrude Oil Biojet fuel production process Biocrude Oil Refining Process Biojet Fuel 19

20 Several marine operators have been running biodiesel in their aero-derivative engines for about 2 years CF6 Aero Engine (core of LM2500 engine) Aero-derivative LM2500 Cruise Ship Engine Boeing and partners to use biojet fuel in flight demonstrations to propel biofuel industry GE & RR engine company tests Biojet fuel flight demonstrations Boeing screening tests NASA lab tests NASA flame tube tests Gather Biojet samples

21 Conclusions alternate fuels Drop-in alternate fuels presently work best for commercial aviation Alternatives need to be environmentally attractive and sustainable Algae feedstock looks very promising Governments and industry need to work together A few comparisons Commercial airplanes can be shown to exceed proposed future EU automotive regulations for CO2 produced per 100 km. Using typical load factors, commercial airplanes produce less CO2 per 100 km traveled than trains. Future aircraft now on the drawing boards will be even better! 21

22 Aviation is one of the most efficient modes of transportation 7.0 Liters Fuel Consumption Liters Petrol Sedan Liters 3-class, low density Small diesel car class, high density Liters SUV Car 787 Train Computed per 100 passenger kilometers, assuming average modal load factors (1.6 passengers for SUV and cars), aggregate average for rail CO 2 generated by each transportation mode converted to equivalent liters of diesel for comparative purposes. Aviation is one of the most efficient modes of transportation 184 g CO 2 /pkm CO2 generated per 100 km traveled g CO 2 /pkm Petrol Sedan g CO 2 /pkm 3-class, low density Small diesel car 60 g CO 2 /pkm 3-class, high density SUV Car 787 Train Equivalent grams CO 2 / passenger kilometers, assuming average modal load factors (1.6 passengers for SUV and cars, 70% for low density 787 and 90% for high density 787, aggregate rail average). UK National rail: DfT Network Modelling Framework (NMF) Environmental ModelCO 2 /fuel consumption and DfT rail statistics for 05/06 22

23 Using typical load factors, aviation is even more efficient 7.0 Liters Liters Predominantly diesel-powered Liters Petrol Sedan Liters 3-class, low density Small diesel car 3-class, high density Predominantly electric-powered SUV Train Car 787 Computed per 100 passenger kilometers, assuming average modal load factors (1.6 passengers for SUV and cars, 38.7% for German diesel train, 70% for low density 787, 90% for high density 787 and 47.6% for electric trains). Load factor not available for U.S. train and based on total system wide energy consumption and passengers carried in CO 2 generated by each transportation mode converted to equivalent liters of diesel for comparative purposes. Electric trains are assumed to have typical electricity generation factors, reflecting a mix of fossil fuels, nuclear and hydroelectric sources. Current production airliners surpass future EU automotive emission objective 130 g CO 2 /km 25% load factor (driver) EU future new car fleet avg.* g CO 2 /pkm 85% load factor 100% load factor g CO 2 /pkm 85% load factor 100% load factor g CO 2 /pkm 85% load factor 40% load factor (1.6 occupant avg.)** 100% load factor 100% load factor (4 occupants) equiv. to 33 g/km ER ER EU Objective As specified, the future EU automotive standard is not defined on a per-occupant basis, so interpret 130 g / km applied to a four-passenger vehicle, having a load factor of 25% - the driver. *130 g CO2/km for the average new car fleet by means of improvements in vehicle motor technology ( **Ref. European Environmental Agency ( 23

24 Current production airliners surpass future EU automotive emission objective g CO 2 /pkm 85% load factor 100% load factor g CO 2 /pkm 85% load factor 100% load factor g CO 2 /pkm 85% load factor 120 g CO 2 /km 25% load factor (driver) EU future new car fleet avg.* 100% load factor 100% load factor (4 occupants) equiv. to 30 g/km ER ER EU Objective Mission lengths: ER (6000 nm), (500 nm), ER (3000 nm). As specified, the future EU automotive standard is not defined on a per-occupant basis, so interpret 120 g / km applied to a four-passenger vehicle, having a load factor of 25% - the driver. * 120 g CO 2 /km for the average new car fleet by means of improvements in vehicle systems and biofuel ( Boeing technology strategy Boeing is investing its own money to develop technologies for more efficient commercial airplanes. Boeing is partnering to help focus the one trillion dollars in technology spending around the world towards 100% load factor technologies for the 100% environment. load factor Boeing has positioned a technology 100% director load factor in Berlin to develop plans for partnering with German industry on technology develop, with an emphasis on environmental topics. 100% load factor (4 occupants) equiv. to 30 g/km ER ER EU Objective 24

25 $1 Trillion in Technology Is Being Developed Throughout the World Europe $280B North America $380B Asia $300B Middle East $6B Africa <$1B South America $21B Australia $13B cs ni ar O th e rs ct E B o e in g le S of ro tw pu om C Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved. e r te o ut A A & D Boeing Enterprise Global Spend outside of US for 2007 Europe Suppliers Asia $1,590-1,610m Suppliers $1,690-1,710m N. America (excl. U.S.A.) Suppliers $ m Middle East Suppliers Africa $ m Suppliers $25-27m Australia S. America Suppliers Suppliers $ m $ K Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved

26 Boeing s External Technology Objectives Find world class technologies Align technology requirements Enable dual / multiple use technologies Incorporate exportable technology Ensure technology ready for new programs Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.. 51 Summary Technology and innovation play a key role in developing environmentally preferred commercial air transports for the future. Boeing is looking for suppliers and partners to be actively engaged in developing valueadded technologies for the future Working together, we can ensure successful technology development and insertion Collaborative joint concept and architecture development is a keystone Copyright 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved

27 Copyright 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Presentation Title 53 27