PTC India Financial Services (PTCIND) 42

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 51 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 25% What s Changed? Target Changed from 55 to 51 EPS FY16E Changed from 7.6 to 6.6 EPS FY17E Changed from 5.6 to 5.3 Rating Unchanged Quarterly Performance Q2FY16 Q2FY15 YoY (%) Q1FY16 QoQ (%) NII Other income PPP PAT Key Financials Crore FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E NII PPP PAT Valuation summary (YoY Growth) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY16E P/E Target P/E P/BV Target P/ABV RoA RoE Stock data Particulars Amount Market Capitalisation 2698 crore GNPA (Q2FY16) 4.1% NNPA (Q2FY16) 3.0% NIM % (Q2FY16) 5.6% 52 week H/L 73.2/37.1 Equity capital 526 Crore Face value 10 DII Holding (%) 2.9 FII Holding (%) 11.0 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M PFS REC PFC Research Analyst Kajal Gandhi [email protected] Vishal Narnolia [email protected] Vasant Lohiya [email protected] November 13, 2015 PTC India Financial Services (PTCIND) 42 Growth on track; NPA concern bottoms Total income grew 207% YoY to crore, led by 207 crore one-time gain related to sale of equity investment in Ind-Barath Energy (Utkal). Accordingly, PAT increased four fold to 211 crore Asset quality deteriorated with 283 bps and 203 bps QoQ surge in GNPA & NNPA ratio at 4.07% & 2.99%, respectively. Accordingly, provision expenses surged to 47 crore in Q2FY16 (I-direct estimate - 5 crore) NII grew 13% YoY to 94.1 crore, below our estimate of 104 crore, due to decline in margins at 5.58% in Q2FY16 vs. 6.49% in Q2FY15. Decline in margins can be attributed to surge in slippages Credit growth remained strong at 30% YoY to 7225 crore; above our estimate of 6951 crore Credit traction to continue ahead; renewable energy key driver PFS advances have grown exponentially at a CAGR of 49% to 6288 crore at the end of FY15. PFS, initially, had the largest exposure to thermal power projects at ~60% till FY12, which were primarily sourced as a reference from parent company PTC India. The company is now able to garner business on its own with focus on small and medium renewable power projects, which constitute 45% of the overall loan book. Owing to moderation in credit growth and increasing competition from banking peers, we expect loan growth to moderate compared to previous fiscals at 30.8% CAGR to crore over FY15-17E; renewable energy loans to constitute ~54% of the loan book increasing to 5773 crore by FY17E. Expect margins to moderate to ~5.5% PFS enjoys NIM of 6.0% in FY15 due to higher yields of 13-14% on low ticket, mid-sized project lending and higher capital funds. Leveraging on its power sector lineage, PFS is able to structure loans and provide other technical assistance to small developers, which enables it to command a higher yield. On the liability side, PFS in the past had the benefit of raising funds through low cost tax free bonds and ECBs. However, to aid faster growth, bank borrowing is set to increase, pressurising NIM. We expect NIMs to stay at ~5.5%, factoring in increased bank borrowings and capital raising of 600 crore in FY17E. Asset quality to remain broadly stable, post hiccups seen in Q2FY16 PFS had zero NNPA and marginal GNPA till Q3FY15. However, NPA unexpectedly surged post Q4FY15 owing to pains in certain accounts. In Q2FY16, GNPA spiked to 294 crore ( 82 crore in Q1FY16) led by three accounts (two already restructured) slipping into NPA with exposure of ~ 216 crore. Slippages remain a concern but prudent provision provides comfort against substantial impact on future profitability. Considering the recent spike in NPA, we have revised our NPA estimate upwards and expect GNPA ratio at 3.7% in FY16E and 3.1% in FY17E. Maintain BUY rating on stock We believe the opportunity to grow in the renewable energy project financing remains large. PFS has been able to set itself up as a niche player in the same. RoA, RoE still remain healthy and are expected at 3.4%, 16.9% in FY17E, respectively, aided by double digit PAT growth. With moderation in credit growth and increased competition from banking peers ahead, marginal pressure is anticipated on NIM. Spike in NPA led to downward revision in our ABV estimate for FY17E at 34.4 per share (earlier ). Maintaining our target multiple at 1.5x FY17E ABV, we arrive at a target price of 51 per share (earlier 55). We maintain our BUY rating. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Variance analysis Q2FY16 Q2FY16E Q2FY15 YoY (%) Q1FY16 QoQ (%) Comments NII NII growth remained slower led by decline in margins NIM (%) bps bps Decline in NIM led by higher slippages QoQ Other Income ,553.5 Profit of 206 crore on sale of equity investment led to surge in other income Net Total Income Staff cost Other Operating Expenses Forex loss came to the tune of 7.0 crore vs. 4.3 crore in the previous quarter PPP Provision ,809.6 Slippages of 3 accounts led to surge in provision PBT Tax Outgo PAT PAT increased four fold to 211 crore, led by gains from sale of investment during the quarter. Adjusting for one-time gain, PAT came in at 4.4 crore Key Metrics GNPA NA GNPA deteriorated at 4.07%, decline of 203 bps QoQ NNPA NA 63 NA NNPA ratio increased 206 bps bps QoQ at 3.03% in Q2FY16 Change in estimates FY16E FY17E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Interest Income Factoring in Q2FY16, NII estimate lowered for FY16E and FY17E Pre Provision Profit NIM(%) (calculated) bps bps Margin revised lower based on expectation of rise in competition PAT ABV per share ( ) Assumptions Current Earlier FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Credit growth (%) NIM Calculated (%) Cost to income ratio (%) GNPA ( crore) Facotirng in Q2FY16 slippages, GNPA estimates revised upwards NNPA ( crore) Facotirng in Q2FY16 slippages, NNPA estimates revised upwards ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Company Analysis Credit traction to continue ahead; renewable energy key driver PFS, as a strategy, has focused on being a financier to small and medium power projects. The company s management team has significant experience in the power sector and the financial services industry, which enables them to identify specific requirements of power project developers and offer structured products and services. PFS had started focusing on its debt financing segment post FY12. Since then, PFS advance has grown exponentially at a CAGR of 49% from 632 crore in FY12 to 6288 crore at the end of FY15. Initially, PFS had the largest exposure to thermal power projects at ~60% at the end of FY12. Most of these projects were primarily sourced as a reference from parent company PTC India, which helped it to expand its loan book initially. However, of late, the company has been able to garner business on its own with the share of thermal projects coming down to ~32% by the end of FY15 as exposure to renewable energy projects increased to ~39% of the loan book in FY15 from ~21% in FY12. Q2FY16 advances grew 30% YoY and 10% QoQ to 7225 crore. Fresh disbursements during the quarter were mainly due to renewable energy of 249 crore, marginally higher than Q4FY15. Renewable energy loan growth was 49% YoY and 9% QoQ. Hence, its share in the total loan book has increased to 45% from 36% as on Q2FY15. Owing to moderation in credit growth from last three quarters and increasing competition from banking peers, we expect loan growth to moderate compared to previous fiscals at 30.8% CAGR to crore over FY15-17E. Growth may primarily be led by renewable energy loans. PFS sanction stood at crore of which ~51% was to renewable projects. We expect the share of renewable energy loans to go up to ~54% increasing from 2456 crore in FY15 to 5773 crore by FY17E given that majority of the new sanctions/disbursements are to renewable energy projects. Exhibit 1: Loan book break-up We expect the share of renewable energy loans to go up to ~54% increasing from 2456 crore in FY15 to 5773 crore by FY17E 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 FY16E FY17E Thermal Renewable Hydro Others ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Expect margins to dip but stay healthy at ~5.5% Earlier, the borrowing cost was very low for PFS - as low as 8.2% at the end of FY13 on account of higher funding from ECBs of 418 crore (which were funded at Libor +3.25%) and low cost infrastructure bonds (coupon rate of 8.5%) put together comprising ~40% of total borrowings. NIMs, therefore, stayed very high at 9% in the past, also shored up by equity capital of 352 crore raised via IPO in The share of loans from banks and financial institutions in overall funding has increased to ~81% at 3122 crore by FY14 supporting the accelerated pace of growth in FY14. Since the lending rate of banks were hovering at the base rate, cost of funds (CoF) has, of late, gone up dragging spreads lower to 4% vs. 6% earlier. Going ahead, we expect NII to grow at a CAGR of 23.9% over FY15-17E to 524 crore. Calculated NIMs, therefore, may remain stable with marginal downward bias at 5.5% in FY16-17E. Further, to maintain accelerated growth, PFS may have to raise capital somewhere at the start of FY17E. We have built in capital raising to the tune of 600 crore in FY17E, which will support NIMs at ~5.5%. Exhibit 2: Margins to stay close to 5.5% in FY16-17E 9.0 Calculated NIMs expected to remain stable with marginal downward bias at 5.5% in FY16-17E. % Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 FY16E FY17E NIM Spread Asset quality disappointed in Q2FY16 PFS had zero net non performing assets & marginal gross non performing assets till Q3FY15. Although there were no bad loans, PFS used to creates high standard asset vs. 0.25% stipulated by the RBI. In Q4FY15, PFS reported a negative surprise with a surge in GNPA from 4.3 crore in Q3FY15 to 81.6 crore in Q4FY15 (GNPA ratio 1.28%) and NNPA came at 63 crore in Q4FY15. This increase in GNPA was due to three loan accounts (already restructured), which slipped in FY15 with exposure of crore. Additional provision of 14 crore was made in FY15 in relation to exposure in one gas based power project, which added to provision. Restructured assets were at 450 crore out of which projects with exposure of ~ 150 crore are operational. PFS has made an investment of crore for 37% stake in RS India Wind Energy Pvt Ltd. However, owing to a delay in DCCO, PFS has provided crore in Q2FY15 and further crore in Q4FY15 due to misrepresentation of facts by the investee, thereby providing 100% of the exposure. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 In Q2FY16, GNPA surged more than two times QoQ at 294 crore on the back of two accounts slipping during the quarter (already restructured) with exposure of ~216 crore. However, adequate provision for these exposures bodes confidence against any substantial impact on future profitability. We do not see any sharp asset quality deterioration at least in the next couple of years as most thermal projects financed by PFS have reached the completion stage without much delay. Also, going ahead, lower exposure to thermal or coal linked projects and higher focus on low gestation and highly subsidised renewable energy projects will help maintain healthy asset quality. Also, involvement of the senior management in each sanction leaves less room for assets to turn non-performing at later stages. Going ahead, as the loan book size expands and book matures, we expect NPA accretion to continue in FY15-17E. Considering the recent spike in NPA, we have revised our NPA estimate upwards and now expect GNPA ratio at 3.7% growing to 305 crore in FY16E and 329 crore (3.1% in FY17E) by FY17E. Accordingly, NNPA ratio is expected to come at 2.0% in FY17E. Exhibit 3: Asset quality to stay steady ahead Crore FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% GNPA GNPA % Capital adequacy still strong, set to improve PFS capital adequacy ratio stood at healthy 25.2% aided by lower risk weighted assets. We believe the company is currently adequately capitalised for accelerated growth till FY16E. However, to maintain such a pace, we believe PFS will need to raise equity by the start of FY17E. We have built in capital raising in FY17E to the tune of 600 crore. Further, monetisation of its equity investment can also aid it to strengthen its capital adequacy ratio. The equity investment book as on FY15 stood at 340 crore (net of provisions). PTC Financial has struck a deal and exited Ind-Barath (Utkal) project in Q2FY16 at crore valued in the books at 105 crore. This deal shored Q2FY16 bottom-line with a one-time gain of 207 crore. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

6 Exhibit 4: Capital adequacy remains strong (%) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Capital adequacy (%) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

7 Outlook and valuation We believe there is ample opportunity to grow in the power project financing space and PFS has been able to set itself up as a niche player in the renewable energy space. Healthy balance sheet growth is expected to aid book value (per share) expansion from 24.4 as on FY15 to 37.6 in FY17E. Owing to moderation in credit growth from last three quarters, we continue to expect moderate credit growth compared to previous fiscals at 30.8% CAGR to crore growth over FY15-17E. With the exit from the Ind-Barath (Utkal) project at a profit of ~ crore (book value crore), surge in PAT seen in Q2FY16 bottom-line. Going ahead, we do not expect a sharp increase in NPA as seen in FY15 and Q2FY16 and have factored in GNPA and NNPA at 3.1% and 2.0% respectively in FY17E. RoA, RoE still remain healthy and are expected at 3.4%, 16.9% in FY17E, respectively, aided by double digit PAT growth. With moderation in credit growth from last 3 quarters and increased competition from banking peers ahead, marginal pressure is anticipated on NIM. Spike in asset quality has led to downward revision in our ABV estimate for FY17E at 34.4 per share (earlier ). Maintaining our target multiple at 1.5x FY17E ABV, we arrive at a target price of 51 per share (earlier 55). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. Exhibit 5: Trend in return ratios % FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E RoA RoE Exhibit 6: Valuation NII Growth PAT Growth P/E ABV P/ABV RoA RoE ( cr) (%) ( cr) (%) (x) ( ) (x) (%) (%) FY (32.4) FY FY (22.6) FY16E FY17E (5.0) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

8 Company snapshot Target price : Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event FY11 PFS completes intial public offer (IPO) at 26. The company received the status of an infrastructure finance company from RBI FY12 Dr Pawan Singh joins the company as wholetime director and CFO of the company with Deepak Amitabh appointed as Chairman & Managing Director of the company. PFS raises ECB at attractive rates. It reduced its stake to 5% in India Energy Stock Exchange at a profit of 79 crore FY14 Divests stake in Meenakshi Energy at a profit of 82 crore. Advances surge to 4974 crore growing 117% YoY. PAT doubles to 207 crore from 104 crore in FY13 Q2FY16 Divests stake in Ind Barath Energy (Utkal) Limited at a profit of 206 crore. Top 10 shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) (in %) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 1 PTC India Ltd 30-Sep Promoter Macquarie Investment Management Ltd. 30-Sep FII Life Insurance Corporation of India 30-Sep DII Capital International, Inc. 31-Jul Others JPMorgan Asset Management U.K. Limited 30-Sep Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 31-Aug Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company Limited 30-Jun Mirae Asset Global Investments (India) Pvt. Ltd. 31-Aug Van Eck Associates Corporation 31-Oct Jyske Invest Fund Management A/S 31-Jan Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares Mirae Asset Global Investments (India) Pvt. Ltd. 2.00m 2.96m HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd m -1.68m Emerging Global Advisors, LLC 0.17m 0.24m Pioneer Investment Management, Inc m -1.19m IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited 0.07m 0.11m Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company Limited -0.49m -0.70m Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 0.06m 0.10m Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited -0.31m -0.50m Van Eck Associates Corporation 0.03m 0.05m Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

9 Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Interest Earned ,206.8 Interest Expended Net Interest Income % growth Non Interest Income Net Income Employee cost Other operating Exp Operating Income Provisions PBT Taxes Net Profit % growth EPS ( ) Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Valuation No. of Equity Shares EPS ( ) BV ( ) BV-ADJ ( ) P/E P/BV P/adj.BV Yields & Margins (%) Yield on interest earning assets Avg. cost on funds Net Interest Margins Spreads Quality and Efficiency Cost / Total net income GNPA% NNPA% RONW (%) ROA (%) Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Sources of Funds Capital Reserves and Surplus Networth Borrowings Other Liabilities & Provisions Total 5,414 6,734 8,748 11,943 Applications of Funds Fixed Assets Investments Advances Other Assets Total 5,414 6,734 8,748 11,943 Growth ratios (% growth) (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Total assets Advances Borrowings Total Income Net interest income Operating expenses Operating profit (excl trading) Net profit Book value EPS 99.4 (22.6) (19.4). ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

10 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (NBFC) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) Buy 23, Reliance Capital (RELCAP) Buy 10, HDFC (HDFC) 1,191 1,410 Buy 187, PTC India Financial Services (PTCIND) Buy 2, ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 10

11 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 11

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