Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: synergies between international security applications

Transcription

1 Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: synergies between international security applications Vitaly Fedchenko Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

2 Content of this talk Introduction. What is nuclear forensics? List of applications where nuclear forensics methods are used SIPRI book on the matter One example Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: cooperation and synergies between different international security applications

3 Content of this talk Introduction. What is nuclear forensics? List of applications where nuclear forensics methods are used. SIPRI book on the matter. One example Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: cooperation and synergies between different international security applications

4 IAEA definition of nuclear forensics in the nuclear security context The term nuclear forensic analysis was first coined in the context of combating nuclear smuggling; In this context, the IAEA defines nuclear forensics as the analysis of intercepted illicit nuclear or radioactive material and any associated material to provide evidence for nuclear attribution : NF process: sample collection, characterization and interpretation for nuclear attribution.

5 SIPRI definition Nuclear attribution (material source and route identification for prosecution purposes) can be replaced by reconstruction (determination of a history of the nuclear or radioactive material or an event). Broad definition: Nuclear forensics is the analysis of a sample of nuclear or other radioactive material and any associated information to provide evidence for determining the history of the material.

6 Content of this talk Introduction. What is nuclear forensics? List of applications where nuclear forensics methods are used. SIPRI book on the matter. One example Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: cooperation and synergies between different international security applications

7 What is nuclear forensics? Selection of relevant applications Application of [nuclear] science to [nuclear] law: Domestic law; International law (treaties, regimes) and policies. Extraction of meaningful information from nuclear or other radioactive materials: Sample collection, characterization and results interpretation for history reconstruction. Limited to security issues.

8 Common applications Law enforcement and counterterrorism (classic NF): Combatting the illicit trafficking of nuclear materials; Post-explosion forensics and other post-event applications. Non-proliferation: NPT verification (IAEA safeguards, verification in Iraq); CTBT verification (radionuclide component of IMS, OSIs); FMCT verification (determination of reactor s lifetime Pu production, detection of undeclared production). Arms control and disarmament: Verification of bilateral arms control treaties by NTMs; Nuclear intelligence proper.

9 Common techniques Goals: determination of sample material s history (origin, age, intended use, route etc.); Bulk material analysis (e.g. HRGS and XRF for screening, ICP-MS and TIMS for characterization); Particle analysis (e.g. HRGS and XRF for screening, SEM, SIMS and FT-TIMS for characterization); Analysis of radioactive gases (e.g. HRGS and BetaGamma Coincidence counting).

10 Common origins In 1943 the US needs to verify if Germany operates plutonium producing reactors: Luis Alvarez suggests air sampling for detection of radioactive xenon gas (Xe-133): Radioxenon detection is crucial for CTBT verification; Robert Oppenheimer suggests water sampling downstream from suspected reactor facilities: The IAEA asked the SRNL as part of the Programme 93+2 to develop methods of sampling of Iraqi waterways, which proved extremely sensitive; 1945: first attempts by the US to collect radioactive particles (airborne, after explosions): Analysis of radioactive particles is crucial for both the CTBT and the IAEA safeguards applications.

11 Content of this talk Introduction. What is nuclear forensics? List of applications where nuclear forensics methods are used. SIPRI book on the matter. Examples! How can this book be useful and to whom?

12 SIPRI book on nuclear forensics Tour d horizon of nuclear forensics, including: Formulation of nuclear forensic analysis as a broad field; Description of the process of nuclear forensic analysis; Description of destructive and non-destructive measurement techniques often used for nuclear forensic purposes; Compendium of nuclear forensic signatures in the nuclear fuel cycle; Compilation of radionuclide signatures in post-explosion environments; The origins of nuclear forensics in the US, USSR and Sweden; Specific cases of applying nuclear forensics to verification of NPT, CTBT and FMCT, as well as to combating nuclear smuggling.

13 Team of authors Klaus Mayer et. al., Institute for Transuranium Elements (ITU), JRC, Karlsruhe - nuclear forensic mass spectrometry and nuclear forensic signatures in the nuclear fuel cycle; Sophie Grape, Uppsala University - theory of measurements and gamma spectrometry; Lars-Erik De Geer, Swedish Defence Research Institute (retired) - postexplosion signatures and history of the Swedish long-range detection program; Robert Kelley, IAEA Department of Safeguards (retired) - specific cases of verification in Iraq, history of the long-range detection programs; Vitaly Fedchenko, SIPRI - nuclear forensic methods, process and purpose, history of the long-range detection programs, treaty verification.

14 Content of this talk Introduction. What is nuclear forensics? List of applications where nuclear forensics methods are used. SIPRI book on the matter. One example Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: cooperation and synergies between different international security applications

15 Example: Enrichment in Iran Before 2002 the IAEA only had limited indications of enrichment-related procurement activities by Iran; August 2002 and February 2003: Tip-offs from open sources concerning the existence of the fuel fabrication plant at Natanz and Kalaye Electric Company (KEC) centrifuge R&D facility; IAEA requested access, which was provided with some delay (March 2003 for Natanz and August 2003 for KEC); Satellite imagery was used to identify Natanz as enrichment plant and to watch the KEC facility.

16 Example 2: Enrichment in Iran - 2 February 2003: Iran declared that: a) its enrichment program was indigenous, b) no enrichment activities involving actual nuclear material were conducted; August 2003: Iran allowed IAEA to take swipe samples at Kalaye Electric Company, but only after significant renovation of the site; In total about 300 swipe samples were taken in Iran, incl. at Natanz, KEC and other locations; On one occasion (Lavisan) sampling was unsuccessful due to razing the site, removal of topsoil and new construction.

17 Example 2: Enrichment in Iran - 3 Particles of LEU (1,2%) and a few clusters of HEU particles (32-38%, 50-60% and up to 70%, some with U-236 content) were found. Practically no depleted uranium found; Presented with the evidence, Iranian authorities admitted domestic enrichment (up to 1,2%) and attributed the presence of the remaining particles to contamination originating from imported centrifuge components ; The latter was confirmed on balance by analysis of swipe samples from centrifuge components provided by another Member State.

18 Content of this talk Introduction. What is nuclear forensics? List of applications where nuclear forensics methods are used. SIPRI book on the matter. One example Measurements for nuclear forensic characterisation: cooperation and synergies between different international security applications

19 How can it be useful? Opens the issue of nuclear forensics and its potential applications to a nonspecialist readership; Proposes a wider understanding of nuclear forensics (nuclear or other radioactive material analysis for security purposes). Provides support for policy recommendations concerning: Implementation of nuclear security commitments. (For example, in the framework of the Nuclear Security Summit). Verification of existing and future treaties: how can I better or cheaper verify this? Informed search for synergies between verification frameworks. Offers a compendium of nuclear forensic signatures: if this is found in a sample, what does it mean? Discusses another aspect of history of nuclear weapons programs and intelligence efforts.

20 Cooperation in characterization Bulk Particles Gases IAEA (NMAC and ES) IAEA (ES) CTBTO (IMS) Illicit trafficking Bilateral arms control Bilateral arms control CTBTO (OSI) CTBTO (IMS) Nuclear safety FMCT verification Nuclear safety IAEA (WAES) Explosion attribution Explosion attribution CTBTO (OSI) CTBTO (OSI) FMCT verification

21 Cooperation in characterization Bulk Particles Gases IAEA (NMAC and ES) IAEA (ES) CTBTO (IMS) Illicit trafficking Bilateral arms control Bilateral arms control CTBTO (OSI) CTBTO (IMS) Nuclear safety FMCT verification Nuclear safety IAEA (WAES) Explosion attribution Explosion attribution CTBTO (OSI) CTBTO (OSI) FMCT verification

22 Example of cooperation FT-TIMS is an important tool for IAEA s particle analysis (60% of samples); 95% of those samples are analyzed by AFTAC capacities (the rest - AWE and CEA); That AFTAC capacity was originally developed as part of US NTMs;

23 Conclusion Very similar or the same measurement techniques are used in many international security frameworks; It is possible to identify specific areas where cooperation is taking place or synergies are possible; Arguably, such synergies can be investigated and exploited further (anonymity of samples helps).