Trade monitoring for nuclear and nuclear-related dual-use items
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1 Trade monitoring for nuclear and nuclear-related dual-use items Cristina Versino European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for Transuranium Elements Information Analysis for Nuclear Security Biological Weapon Convention Technology, Trade and Transparency Lessons from other treaty regimes Geneve, 12 December 212
2 Outline How/why we started: trade analysis & IAEA safeguards Web data services on global trade The HS trade nomenclature Examples of uses of HS trade data Discussion 2
3 Trade analysis and IAEA safeguards 27-now: EC support task to IAEA. Can open source data about the world trade support IAEA s verification activities? Exploratory activity on, e.g.: Raw material, Additional Protocol Annex II items, dual-use equipment, source nuclear material. 3
4 Web data services on global trade Data derived from exporters/importers declarations to customs. Imports/exports records on: What is traded (Harmonized System descriptor) Value Quantity When Exporting country / entity Importing country / entity...
5 Web data services on global trade Source: State/ customs authorities. Nature of information: Official. Temporal coverage: More than 15 years. Temporal granularity: By year, month, or shipment. Continuity: Regular. Geographical coverage: All States in the world economy. Information type: Structured by the HS. Reliability: Medium to low, depending on items type, value, trade flow, publishing State. Accuracy: Medium to low, depending on items type. 5
6 The trade nomenclature The Harmonized System (HS) is the taxonomy of goods by the World Customs Organization. Since trade data is indexed by the HS codes, to retrieve the data it is necessary to map items of interest to the HS HS Chapter HS Heading HS Subheading CN Subheading TARIC Subheading The Big Table 6
7 Some useful HS for the nuclear domain HS Code HS Description Uranium ores and concentrates Thorium ores and concentrates Natural uranium and its compounds; alloys, dispersions, incl. cermets, ceramic products and mixtures containing natural uranium or natural uranium compound [Euratom] Uranium enriched in U 235 and its compounds: plutonium and its compounds; alloys, dispersions, incl. cermets, ceramic products and mixtures containing uranium enriched in U 235, plutonium or compounds of these products [Euratom] Uranium depleted in U 235 and its compounds; thorium and its compounds; alloys, dispersions, incl. cermets, ceramic products and mixtures containing uranium depleted in U 235, thorium or compounds of these products Radioactive elements, isotopes and compounds, and alloys and dispersions, incl. cermets, ceramic products and mixtures, containing these elements, isotopes and compounds; radioactive residues (excl. natural uranium, uranium enriched and depleted in U 235; plutonium, thorium and compounds of these products) Spent "irradiated" fuel elements "cartridges" of nuclear reactors [Euratom] Heavy water "deuterium oxide" [Euratom] Nonradioactive isotopes; inorganic or organic compounds of such isotopes, whether or not chemically defined (excl. heavy water "deuterium oxide") Articles of zirconium, n.e.s Nuclear reactors [Euratom] Machinery and apparatus for isotopic separation and parts thereof, n.e.s. [Euratom] Fuel elements "cartridges", non-irradiated, in casing with handling fixtures, for nuclear reactors [Euratom] Parts of nuclear reactors, n.e.s. [Euratom]
8 Example of use of trade data Interest: Nuclear safeguards Trade of nuclear-grade graphite Interest: Nuclear-related export controls - Trade of machine tools - Trade of pressure transducers 8
9 Trade of nuclear graphite Test hypotheses of undeclared nuclear activities through outstanding imports of graphitebased products. Why export-controlled: Moderator in nuclear reactors. No specific HS descriptor for nuclear grade graphite. 9
10 Trade of nuclear graphite Non-nuclear uses: Graphite electrodes. Optical fiber manufacturing equipment. Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) and EDM electrodes. Continuous casting. Hot press.... World exporters of graphite-based products above 1 T in 29 1
11 Trade of nuclear graphite B C quantity quantity? A time time legend country in focus trade flow commodity with high unit value time series of traded quantity 11
12 Trade of machine tools Milling, grinding, turning machines. Why export-controlled: Nuclear: fabrication of centrifuge parts. Non-nuclear: fabrication of missile components,... HS descriptors for machine tools miss the technical parameters to distinguish the export-controlled ones. 12
13 Trade of machine tools HS Code Unit HS Explanatory note M Value in United States Dollars M+1 M+2 M+3 M USD Machining Centers For Working Metal USD Horizontal Lathes For Removng Met Numrcal Controld USD Boring-Milling Mach Remove Met Numerical Controlld USD Milling Mach N Knee Type Remov Met Numerical Contl HS Code Unit HS Explanatory note M M+1 Quantity M+2 M+3 M NO Machining Centers For Working Metal NO Horizontal Lathes For Removng Met Numrcal Controld NO Boring-Milling Mach Remove Met Numerical Controlld NO Milling Mach N Knee Type Remov Met Numerical Contl
14 Trade of machine tools C D B E A legend country in focus trade flow commodity traded related commodities 14
15 Trade of pressure transducers Why controlled: Measure pressure of UF6 in gas centrifuges. Non-nuclear uses: Control of petrochemical processes, semiconductor manufacturing operations, HS descriptors for pressure transducers miss the technical parameters to distinguish the export-controlled ones. 15
16 Trade of pressure transducers HS Code HS Description OPTICAL, PHOTOGRAPHIC, CINEMATOGRAPHIC, MEASURING, CHECKING, PRECISION, MEDICAL OR SURGICAL INSTRUMENTS AND APPARATUS; PARTS AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF Instruments and apparatus for measuring or checking the flow, level, pressure or other variables of liquids or gases, e.g. flow meters, level gauges, manometers, heat meters (excl. instruments and apparatus of heading 914, 915, 928 or 932) Instruments and apparatus for measuring or checking pressure of liquids or gases (excl. regulators). Electronic instruments and apparatus for measuring or checking pressure of liquids or gases (excl. regulators) Spiral or metal diaphragm type pressure gauges Instruments and apparatus for measuring or checking pressure of liquids or gases, nonelectronic (excl. spiral or metal diaphragm type pressure gauges, and regulators) 16
17 Trade of pressure transducers World exports on HS= to a specific destination. Quantity vs value plot. The coloring if dots represent different exporting countries. 17
18 Trade of pressure transducers World exports on HS= to a specific destination. Data filtered by: trade unit value between 8 and 12 USD & number of items >1. 18
19 Trade of pressure transducers C D B E A Map on export-controllability of items legend country in focus trade flow commodity with a low unit value commodity matching a target unit value
20 Discussion Trade is additive & parallel in nature. A global view on trade of export-controlled items is useful for: IAEA safeguards; Export controls of dual-use items (policy, licensing, enforcement) Non proliferation studies. Trade is better understood when placed in context: Look at related items, temporal series, pattern of trade between countries. No official data exist on the trade of export-controlled items: Necessary to rely on estimates (upper bounds) built on data declared to customs in the Harmonized System or its subdivision. 2
21 References Trade analysis & IAEA safeguards: Versino C., Chatelus R., Cojazzi G.G.M., Contini F., Tarvainen M., Tsois, A. Global trade data to support IAEA safeguards. ESARDA Bulletin n. 45, pp , 21. Global trade data sources: Versino C., Tsukanova M., Cojazzi G.G.M. Catalogue of WEB Data Services on Global Trade. EUR EN, ISBN , JRC62363, 21. Trade of pressure transducers, example: Versino C., Contini F., Cojazzi G.G.M. Understanding Nuclear Trade: Data Sources and Tools. IAEA Safeguards Symposium, 21. Trade of machine tools, example: Versino C., Contini F., Cojazzi G.G.M. The Big Table. An information tool on items listed for export controls. ESARDA 33 rd Annual Meeting, Symposium on Safeguards and Nuclear Material Management, Budapest, May 16-2, 211. Trade of high speed cameras, example: Versino C., Contini F., Cojazzi G.G.M. An information tool on items listed for export controls. INMM-52 nd Annual Meeting, Palm Desert, CA USA, July 17-21, 211. Trade Flows: Versino C., Cojazzi G.G.M. Estimation of trade flows related to export-controlled dual use items, Data sources, methodology and tools. EUR EN, ISBN , JRC6855,
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