Cost & Schedule Risk Assessment 6.0. Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP Leigh Hostetter, PMP

Transcription

1 Cost & Schedule Risk Assessment 6.0 Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP Leigh Hostetter, PMP 24 October 2012

2 What If? In Business and in Life: We always made the best possible decisions, and Implemented those decisions in the most efficient manner 2

3 BSRM Helps Clients Rank projects based on risks and opportunities Develop optimum project strategies Transform optimum project strategies into tactical plans Track project implementation; provide early warning of variances Develop meaningful dashboards and increase transparency Forecast project completion dates and costs Improve portfolio performance metrics Identify portfolio cost and schedule drivers Capture lessons learned to inform future planning Manage project and portfolio risks

4 Business Solutions & Risk Management Services Project Management Consulting Probabilistic Cost Estimation Portfolio Risk Ranking Business Analytics PM Information Systems Process & Tools for Reducing Costs and Increasing Profits Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis Project Dash Boards Project Controls Earned Value Analysis

5 The Project Management Process 14/11/2012

6 Why does project management methodology matter? 14/11/2012 Varying versions exist but cartoon seems to have been documented first in John Oakland's book Total Quality Management.

7 Project Planning and Control Plan Develop Work Breakdown Structure Define resources, costs, and durations Schedule work packages using network logic Team consensus on baseline cost-loaded schedule Do Check Assess Track progress against the baseline Analyze Earned Value metrics Corrective action and change management 14/11/2012

8 The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) A deliverables-oriented decomposition of the work to be executed by the project team to accomplish project objectives and create the desired deliverables with each descending level representing an increasingly detailed definition of the project work Deliverable: Any measurable, tangible or verifiable item that must be produced to complete a project In Practical Terms The WBS is what to deliver It is a fundamental tool to properly manage the project scope

9 Work Breakdown Structure Common language for all team members Defines and outlines scope Site Project A Project B Project C Site Prep Dewatering Excavation Restoration Site Controls Setup Build Access Road Remove and Stockpile OB Build Decon Pad 14/11/2012

10 Plan Resources and Estimate Cost and Duration Determine the Resources and Quantity of Resources Required for Work Packages Estimate the Cost of Work Packages Estimate the Duration of Work Packages

11 Assign Network Logic Shows how changes in one task impact other tasks Facilitates scheduling (and rescheduling) of people and equipment Promotes analysis of tradeoffs and potential corrective action

12 How is this project doing? COST Planned Cost Actual Cost 14/11/2012 Current Time TIME

13 Earned Value Curve EAC Management Reserve BAC COST Schedule Variance Cost Variance Planned Value Actual Cost Earned Value Current Time TIME Planned Completion Date Estimated Completion Date 14/11/2012

14 Earned value metric calculations provide holistic understanding of project progress

15 Earned Value Analysis Early warning system Early corrective action cost/schedule variance correction Scope management change orders for new scope *Source: Modified from Practice Standard for Earned Value Management 2005

16 14/11/2012 Scheduling Best Practices

17 14/11/2012 General Process for Developing Work Breakdown Structures

18 WBS Best Practices The names of the WBS elements should be easy to understand and convey meaning to all project participants and stakeholders The work packages should account for 2 to 10% of the total project budget (exceptions can occur for very large or very small projects) Activities or should not have durations beyond two project reporting periods Do not use the same task heading for activities performed by two separately responsible groups Include task and/or work packages in the WBS for work that will performed outside parties, even if they do not involve a cost (regulatory review, peer assists) Break down items such as permits, regularly scheduled field events and reports into their component activities 14/11/2012

19 Duration Estimating Best Practices Whenever possible obtain estimates from individuals who have performed similar activities in past Have people who are responsible for performing a given task provide duration estimates Make all estimates realistic. It is best to consider most likely amount of time needed, without a pessimistic or optimistic view In general assume a normal workweek and normal workday Use days as the time unit Be willing to breakdown into smaller WBS elements if there is difficulty in estimating the duration of a particular activity Do not assume that office workers will have 8 hours of uninterrupted time. Assume that office workers are 70% productive and adjust durations accordingly 14/11/2012

20 Network Scheduling Best Practices Do not link Summary Tasks PM and Oversight tasks Start when project starts and finishes when the last activity finishes Set Constraints as little as possible Instead, consider using Deadlines as they do not directly affect project scheduling dates For risk modeling you should not have any must start, must finish or similar constraints Maximize concurrency whenever possible Multiple finish to start activities off a given milestone Use of start to start logic connectors Minimize discretionary dependencies 14/11/2012

21 14/11/2012 Case Study

22 Site Background Information Former specialty petroleum manufacturing facility Objective to prepare site for sale and use as mixed commercial / residential redevelopment Project scope of work includes Removing and properly disposing of asbestos and regulated wastes from manufacturing plant Demolishing the building structure Excavating and properly disposing of soil having concentrations above residential standards Dewatering during excavation and discharging water to a publically owned treatment works Obtaining all necessary permits prior to performing field activities Business plan called for completing project by September 30, 2011 at cost of $4.6 million

23 Risk Elements included in Model Structure Probabilistic cost and duration input parameters Probabilistic resource assignments (i.e. employs RiskProjectResouceUse function) and resource unit prices Durations for Level of effort or hammock task such as project management or driven by the uncertain duration of other tasks and network logic Project risk register to address low probability high impact events (i.e., makes use of RiskProjectAddDelay function)

24 General Notes on Environmental Remediation Projects Notorious for going over budget and schedule One of the largest uncertainties is always associated with the volume of impacted material (soil, sediments) that must be addressed Another large source of uncertainty is permitting and regulatory approvals. The percentage of cost for project management higher than in other construction industries Project carrying costs can be high

25 Model Demonstration and Results 14/11/2012

26 Model Cost Results Statistic Cost Duration Fnish Date Minimum $4,220, days 8/29/2011 Maximum $6,293, days 9/13/2012 Mean $4,831, days 10/23/2011 Std Deviation $253, days 42 Days Mode $4,459, days 10/6/ % Perc $4,564, days 9/20/ % Perc $4,660, days 9/29/ % Perc $4,789, days 10/11/ % Perc $4,948, days 10/27/ % Perc $5,159, days 12/19/ /11/2012

27 14/11/2012 Greenville Site Demolition and Remediation Cost

28 14/11/2012 Greenville Site Finish Date

29 14/11/2012 Cost Tornado Diagram

30 Mar-2011 Apr-2011 May-2011 Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012 Mar-2012 Cumulative Cost $Million Greenville Probabilistic Planned Value Box Plot Maximum 80 Perc% Mean 20 Perc% Minimum /11/2012

31 Cumulative Cost Trend Data for Probabilistic Earned Value Analysis 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Deterministic Minimum 20 Perc% Mean 80 Perc% Maximum 1,000, /11/2012

32 Actual Results Project was completed for a cost of $ 4.9 Million and in May of 2012 Soil volume was 20% greater than planned The selected contractor had an injury even at another site which created a stop work order at this site

33 Summary Cost Schedule Risk Analysis Powerful tool for communicating potential cost and schedule outcomes Enhances ability to identify and manage cost and schedule drivers Simplifies estimating cost trends and improves net present value analysis Opens the door for probabilistic earned value analysis control chart approach CSRA should remain dynamic and re-visited throughout project life cycle