MODELING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CASCADING EVENTS ON COMPLEX RAIL NETWORKS

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Byron Williams
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What is the purpose of the Newark Penn Station?
What city is the Penn Station located in?
What month of 2012 did Tayfur Altiok pass away?

1 MODELING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CASCADING EVENTS ON COMPLEX RAIL NETWORKS Birnur Özbaş, Tayfur Altıok*, Michael Greenberg Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation (CAIT) E. J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey 14th Annual NJDOT Research Showcase * This presentation is dedicated to the memory of brilliant researcher, excellent academician, and great friend, Dr. Tayfur Altiok, who passed away on April, He will be deeply missed. May he rest in peace.

2 INTRODUCTION Transportation systems, as world events have shown, are often targets Since 1991 more than 42 percent of terrorist strikes worldwide were directed against land transportation 2/18

3 INTRODUCTION The Northeast Corridor is the busiest passenger rail line in the United States by ridership and service frequency that runs over 450 miles from Washington to Boston. 3/18

4 INTRODUCTION Because of its historical and economic importance, arguably NEC is the most likely target for terrorist activity. Inevitably, concern about a rail corridor s vulnerability to terrorism as well as to hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, snow storms and other natural and human hazard events will increase as their economic role increases. 4/18

5 STUDY AREA 5/18

6 STUDY AREA Pennsylvania Station (also known as Newark Penn Station) is a major transportation hub in Newark, NJ and NEC. It is served by 4 New Jersey Transit trains, 9 Amtrak long distance trains, the Newark Light Rail, the PATH rapid transit system into NYC, and local, regional and national bus services An event at the Newark Penn Station during rush hour may affect more than 100,000 people who will scurry for other ways to get to work or back home and cause gridlock on the roads. 6/18

7 STUDY AREA 7/18

8 STUDY AREA 3 More New Jersey Transit trains Gladstone Line Morristown Line Montclair-Boonton Line 9 Amtrak long distance trains Acela Express Cardinal Crescent Carolinian Keystone Service Northeast Regional Pennsylvanian /Silver Service Vermonter 4 New Jersey Transit trains Northeast Corridor Line North Jersey Coast Line Raritan Valley Line Atlantic City Express Service Newark Light Rail PATH 8/18

9 OBJECTIVE Thus the objective of this study is to carry out a risk and economic analysis based on a simulation model of the railway network at the Newark Penn Station Area and northern NJ region to eventually study the cascading impacts of a major incident. 9/18

10 METHODOLOGY Develop a simulation model Trains: Schedule, Speed, Number of cars, Car capacity Stations, Stop points Ridership: Boarding, Deboarding, On trains, At the stations Tracks Rush Hour AM Rush PM Rush Time of the Day 10/18

11 THE MODEL NORMAL OPERATIONS

12 THE MODEL INCIDENT

13 THE MODEL NEWARK PENN STATION

14 PRODUCTS Decision Support Tool - Scenario Analysis High probability, low consequence incident Snowstorm, Blackout, Accident/Suicide Limited disruption of service Low probability, high consequence incident Hurricane Terrorist event (Station Trains - Infrastructure) 14/18

15 PRODUCTS 1 h 2 h 3.5 h 6.5 h Recovery analysis in terms of the number of people at Newark Penn Station 15/18

16 PRODUCTS Engagement with Air Pollution Simulation Model Plume Model: Hypothetical leak of liquid chlorine from a rail car that is traveling from a major chlorine production facility in northern New Jersey Engagement with Regional Economic Impact Models Estimate the economic consequences of events and follow the ripples of the events through the regional economy Econometric and computable general equilibrium models 16/18

17 IMPLEMENTATION/FURTHER RESEARCH To any transportation system Direct/Cascading impacts of a major incident on commuters/economy Decision support tool for passenger rail system managers to apply in planning and resource allocation. More reliable data Extend the study area 17/18

18 Acknowledgments and Disclaimer This project was sponsored by the University Center for Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Response (UCDPER) - A Collaborative Initiative of Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, and Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital - with support from Department of Defense Grant No. W9132T It was also supported the US Department of Homeland Security to the National Centers for Security, Grant 2008-St-061-TS0007. The views, opinions, positions, conclusions, or strategies in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions, conclusions, strategies, or official policy or position of the Department of Defense, the Department of Home Security, any agency of the U.S. government or state government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. THANKS! Comments? Questions? Birnur OZBAS, PhD, Director of Laboratory for Port Logistics and Security, CAIT birnur@rci.rutgers.edu,

CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLANNING

University of North Carolina Wilmington CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLANNING November 9, 2010 Lumina Theater, Fisher Student Center Development of Continuity Planning University of North Carolina Wilmington

MODELING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CASCADING EVENTS ON COMPLEX RAIL NETWORKS

What is the purpose of the Newark Penn Station?

What city is the Penn Station located in?

What month of 2012 did Tayfur Altiok pass away?