The Great Lakes Futures Project Assessing what the state of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin could be in 50 years.

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1 Assessing what the state of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin could be in 50 years. Our goal is to develop a trans disciplinary understanding of the future of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin using SCENARIO ANALYSIS for long term planning, policy formula@on, program development, implementa@on and training. We are solici@ng crea@ve and skilled writers (MSC and PhD students) interested in preparing manuscripts suitable for journal publica@on that outline the future scenarios that could develop in the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Basin. Successful applicants will be assigned a scenario, paired with another student, and work with faculty mentors remotely. Scenario students will be asked to par@cipate in a series of workshops. 1. January 8 9 th, 2013 at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Learn about the drivers of change within the Basin Par@cipate in axes & scenario iden@fica@on 2. May 2013, locamon and date TBD. Showcase their developed scenarios Discuss policy implica@ons of scenarios DELIVERABLES 1. Scenario Paper 10 pages single spaced Star@ng January 10 th, 2013; Completed Dra]s by mid April 2012; Final Dra] mid May 2. Scenario PresentaMon 20 minute presenta@on Conducted at the Great Lakes Futures workshop in May, 2013, loca@on TBD BENEFITS 1. Working with expert faculty mentors and graduate students within Canada and the United States. 2. An honorarium of $3000 CAD. 3. A manuscript that may be submi_ed as a special issue within the Journal of Great Lakes Research. If this opportunity interests you, please fill out the applicamon form (see aoached) and send it to Katrina Lynn Laurent, Great Lakes Futures Project Manager, at kiglic2@uwo.ca by November 14 th, Leadership Group From Canada Dr. Irena Creed Canada Research Chair, Watershed Sciences Professor, Department of Biology Western University icreed@uwo.ca Dr. Gail Krantzberg Professor and Director Centre for Engineering & Public Policy McMaster University krantz@mcmaster.ca From the United States Dr. Kathryn Friedman Research Associate & Professor of Law and Policy Department of Urban and Regional Planning Director of Cross Border & Interna@onal Research Adjunct Professor, School of Law State University of New York at Buffalo kbf@buffalo.edu Dr. Don Scavia Graham Family Professor of Sustainability Professor, Natural Resources, Environment, Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Michigan scavia@umich.edu This is the inaugural project of the Transborder Research University Network (TRUN) for Water Stewardship ConsorMum (h_p://wings.buffalo.edu/intled/trun/)

2 Ra#onale Project Overview: The Great Lakes Futures Project will assess what the state of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin could be in 50 years by developing a trans disciplinary, cross sector understanding of the future of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin using scenario analysis for long term strategic policy formula@on, program and research priority development and implementa@on, and training the next genera@on of Great Lakes leaders. Scenario analysis is a structured approach to envisioning plausible futures that surface hidden assump@ons and risks, and provide a context for evalua@ng the consequences of current and future management and policy decisions. Our scenario analysis will involve four structured steps: Step 1: Iden@fy driving forces (Alcamo and Henrichs 2008) that influence the airshed, watershed, and water bodies of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Basin. Driving forces include key factors, trends or processes that influence the situa@on, focal issue, or decisions, and propel the system forward and decide the story s outcome (Rothman 2008). These forces tend to be demographic, economic, society, science, technology, ins@tute, environment, and culture (Rothman 2008). A review of the literature from the past (since 1960s), present, and future (towards 2060) will provide a thorough understanding of these driving factors Step 2: Define cri@cal uncertain@es among the drivers (Alcamo and Henrichs 2008), which then form the independent axes of the scenario analysis. Step 3: Determine and drac the major characterismcs of the four alternate scenarios (Alcamo and Henrichs 2008) derived from the four quadrants created by intersecmng the two axes idenmfied in Step 2. Step 4: Analyze and develop logical policy paths that would be required to move towards the desired scenario, or to avoid the undesirable ones, and provide a set of indicators to track movement towards a different scenario along each scenario path. This project will create and catalyze a community of researchers, students, and other Great Lake stakeholders and ins@tu@ons to ar@culate their state of knowledge and priori@es for the future. Finally, this project will likely create new trans boundary research and assessment teams to ini@ate research and teaching programs focused on iden@fied Great Lakes needs. References: [1] Alcamo, J. and T. Henrichs Towards guidelines for environmental scenario analysis. p In J. Alcamo [eds.], Environmental Futures: The prac@ce of environmental scenario analysis. Elsevier B.V. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Rothman, D.S A survey of environmental scenarios. p In J. Alcamo [eds.], Environmental Futures: The prac@ce of environmental scenario analysis. Elsevier B.V. Amsterdam, The Netherlands Scenario Papers: Each student pair (Canadian and American) will prepare synthesis papers (step 3 above) on a specific future scenario (50 years from the present) that could exist in Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin. Each synthesis paper will be 10 pages in length, single spaced, and follow the format of a review manuscript that we hope to submit to the Journal of Great Lakes Research. The student pair will be matched with expert faculty mentors that will aid the students in the development of high quality and publishable manuscripts. The drivers that have been selected for this analysis are Climate Change, Economy, Biological & Chemical Contaminants, Invasive Species, Demographics & Societal Values, Governance & Geopoli@cs, Energy, and Water Quan@ty. From the driver development, the major axes of uncertainty for the Basin will be determined at a workshop in January and these will outline the poten@al scenarios. Each of the scenario papers should include a 50 year forecast for the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin, based on the 2 major axes of uncertainty. These synthesis papers will be cri@cal for informing policy and research recommenda@ons for the Basin.

3 Applica#on Form Please use Adobe to complete this form and send it to Applicant Name: Date of Birth: Sex: Address: Academic Degree Sought: Supervisor: Research Focus: Telephone Number: Honors (please list any academic dismncmons or honors that you have received during your post secondary educamon) Year Honor Level of (school, state/province, Extracurricular acmvimes (please list any extracurricular acmvimes you have engaged in over the last 5 years) Year Ac@vity Organiza@on PublicaMons: Please list any journal publicamons that you may have

4 ApplicaIon Form Personal reflecion quesions: Please answer the following quesions in the available space below QuesMon 1: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) has defined scenarios as plausible and o]en simplified of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assump@ons about key driving forces and rela@onships (Ash et al 2010). Scenarios can take two formats: Quan@ta@ve and Qualita@ve. The la_er, QualitaMve scenarios, o]en use narra@ve descrip@ons of future developments, commonly in the form of phrases, storylines or images (Ash et al 2010). The Great Lakes Futures Project is a QualitaMve Scenario Analysis. In light of such a project, we are seeking students that can synthesize trends in drivers crea@vely to develop narra@ves as to the poten@al future that can result within the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin in Reference: Ash et al Ecosystems and Human Well Being: A manual for Assessment Prac@oners. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA. Imagine that the two axes of uncertainty selected within the Great Lakes Futures Project are the Environment and the Economy. Environment + Environment + Economy + Economy Axes 2: Environment Environment Economy + Environment Economy Axes 1: Economy Please choose ONE of the four scenarios above (+ENVIRONMENT: + ECONOMY for example) and: 1. Develop a crea@ve phrase that captures the essence of that future (for example: Goods from the Woods, Scenario B: Peace in the Woods, Scenario C: Turbulence in the Woods, Scenario D: Restora@on in the Woods; Forest Futures hop:// 2. Write a short piece (250 words) describing what that future would look like. Be sure to be crea@ve and develop a QUALITATIVE NARRATIVE about what that future would look like for the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin. The year that we are projec@ng to is 2060.

5 ApplicaIon Form Personal reflecion quesions: Please answer the following quesions in the available space below QuesMon 2: Imagine it that it is 10 years into the future and you are a parent. Your child asks you what the world used to be like in the year 2012 and how it has changed to result in the world that you both currently live, the year Please provide a brief narra@ve (500 words) explaining your response to your child s ques@on. In this narra@ve, please explain the current state of the world in 2022 and how the world has arrived at that place. Please be as crea@ve as possible. Remember, future scenarios are plausible and o]en simplified descrip@ons of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assump@ons about key driving forces and rela@onships (Ash et al 2010). Reference: Ash et al Ecosystems and Human Well Being: A manual for Assessment Prac@oners. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA. AddiMonal applicamon components: 1. Post secondary transcripts 2. LeOer of reference from your graduate supervisor 3. A sample of wrimng (personal or course essay) The Leadership Group thanks you kindly for your interest in the Great Lakes Futures Project and will be in touch with you shortly in regards to candidate selec#on.