HomeStreet Bank MARKET UPDATE

Transcription

1 HomeStreet Bank MARKET UPDATE Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes Trends in Pricing Current Levels of Supply and Demand Value Metrics Report for the week of June 13, 2016 Presented by HomeStreet Bank High Bluff Home Loan Center Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright Altos Research LLC

2 City Overview This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in OCEANSIDE, CA this week is $550,000. The 262 properties have been on the market for an average of 61 days. Demand measured by the Market Action Index is increasing and dayson-market is trending downward. Even as more properties come available, these are positive trends for the market. Supply and Demand In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up, prices are likely to resume an upward climb. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Seller's $ 550,000 $ % 16 % 7 % ,501-8,000 sqft 46.5 The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 688, $ 6,500,000 $ 114,900 ±+ ±+ = ±+ == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 28 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 800, acre Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 599, ,001-10,000 sqft Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 499, ,501-8,000 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 399, ,501-6,500 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 2 of 11

3 City Overview Median Price Prices appear to be hovering around their high point. Look for a persistent down-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices deviate from these levels. Quartile Prices Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels. Page 3 of 11

4 City Overview Price per Square Foot The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply. Page 4 of 11

5 City Overview Market Action Index The OCEANSIDE market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 46.51; indicating very little supply relative to the demand. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all segments in the market are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the whole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal a slowdown for the whole group. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. Page 5 of 11

6 City Overview Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 61 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 21 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 6 of 11

7 Neighborhood Detail This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in OCEANSIDE, CA this week is $535,000. The 104 properties have been on the market for an average of 71 days. With inventory trending up but dayson-market trending down and the Market Action Index essentially flat recently, conditions do not seem to have strong up or down pull. Supply and Demand Home sales continue to outstrip supply and the Market Action Index has been moving higher for several weeks. This is a Seller's market so watch for upward pricing pressure in the near future if the trend continues. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Seller's $ 535,000 $ % 16 % 9 % ,501-8,000 sqft 49.5 The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 581, $ 1,799,000 $ 305,000 ±+ == = == == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 20 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 799, acre Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 579, ,001-10,000 sqft Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 492, ,501-8,000 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 388, ,501-6,500 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 7 of 11

8 Neighborhood Detail Median Price While this week the median price in this zip code didn't fluctuate much, we are relatively close to the market's high-water mark. Watch for persistent downward shift in the Market Action Index into the Buyer's zone as a leading indicator of the price strength subsiding. Quartile Prices In most of the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have stabilized recently. Only Quartile 4 shows any price increases in the last few weeks. Often this condition happens in markets where demand has fallen (for example, due to microlocation variables) but supply is still relatively short. Buyers are focusing on the lowest price homes in the area. Page 8 of 11

9 Neighborhood Detail Price per Square Foot The market appears to be placing an increasing premium on homes. When list prices and price per square foot consistently increase in tandem, as they're doing now, you can often find short-term investment opportunities. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator for these trends to flatten or drop. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply. Page 9 of 11

10 Neighborhood Detail Market Action Index The OCEANSIDE, market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 49.46; indicating very little supply relative to the demand. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all segments in this zip code are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the whole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal a slowdown for the whole group. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. Page 10 of 11

11 Neighborhood Detail Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 71 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 21 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 11 of 11