Leapfrogging Opportunities for Vehicles and Fuels

Transcription

1 Leapfrogging Opportunities for Vehicles and Fuels Alan C. Lloyd, Ph.D. President, The ICCT A&WMA International Conference: Leapfrogging Opportunities for Air Quality Improvement Xi an, Shaanxi Province, China May 12, 2010

2 Background on ICCT Topics To Be Covered Air pollution challenges past and future Climate change Need for advanced technologies Role of transportation Passenger vehicles Fuels of the future Co-benefits of controlling conventional pollutants and greenhouse gas Concluding remarks Slide 2

3 International Council on Clean Transportation Goal of the ICCT is to dramatically reduce conventional pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from all transportation sources in order to improve air quality and human health, and mitigate climate change. Promotes best practices and comprehensive solutions to: Improve vehicle emissions and efficiency Increase fuel quality and sustainability of alternative fuels Reduce pollution from the in-use fleet, and Curtail emissions from international goods movement. The Council is made up of leading regulators and experts from around the world. Slide 3

4 Air Pollution: Past, Present and Future Major success in reducing air pollution in developed world Continued challenges To attain health based ambient air quality standards (AAQS) Rapid growth in developing world pose substantial air quality challenges in mega-cities Additional issues associated with long range transport and rising background levels of pollutants, e.g., ozone Slide 4

5 Climate Change Poses Additional Challenges and Need for New Approaches Recognition that we have one atmosphere Emissions greenhouse gases and different chemical species have global implications Critical to have international cooperation and multipollutant strategies This will entail sharing best practices internationally and to use lessons learned as we develop global strategies Slide 5

6 Global Risk, Global Action When I began looking at the subject of climate change, what I find first thing to hit me was the magnitude of the risks and the potentially devastating effects on the lives of people across the world. We were gambling the planet. -Sir Nicholas Stern Blueprint for a Safer Planet, 2009 Slide 6

7 Why Advanced Technology Development? Conventional air and other pollution Potential for needed dramatic GHG reductions Economic development Energy security/independenc e issues Slide 7

8 Global Exposure WHO GMAPS Slide 8

9 Health Impacts of Climate Change 140,000 excess deaths due to global warming in ,000 excess deaths recorded in Europe in the heat wave of summer million deaths every year is caused by urban air pollution High temperatures also raise levels of ozone and other pollutants 50 percent likely decrease in production of staple foods due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall pattern in some African countries 2.2 million people die of communicable diseases like diarrhea annually This number will increase with increase in migration caused by climate change More than half the world s population live within 60km of the sea and may have to migrate Source: World Health Organization Slide 9

10 Passenger Vehicles Trend towards major hybridization ICCT, US EPA, CARB cooperating on additional technical studies for future standards (Post 2016) Lightweighting Simulation modeling of advanced engines and hybrids Costs ICCT studying policies to accelerate electrification of vehicles GM s HCCI Also need lower carbon fuels, reduced driving Slide 10

11 Automobiles in the U.S. Transportation in the U.S. About 68% of U.S. petroleum use About 30-80% of urban air pollution (CO, NO x, HC, PM) About 25% of energy use About 25% and greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., CO 2 ) Natural gas 2% Ethanol 2% Other 0% Greater growth than other major economic sectors Light duty vehicle use in the U.S. About 85% of passenger vehicle miles traveled About 75% of road transport energy and GHG About 60% of all transport energy and GHG Petroleum 96% Increasing vehicle efficiency and CO2 emissions are paramount to climate change mitigation (and air quality and energy) goals. Source: CARB 2010 Slide 11

12 Climate Change and Transportation In California, transportation is a particularly large GHG contributor Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation World: ~20% GHGs U.S.: ~26-33% GHGs CA: ~35-40% GHGs GHG Emissions: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Methane (CH 4 ) Hydrofluorcarbons (HFC) Black carbon (BC) California greenhouse gas emissions Recycling/Waste, 1% Res & Com, 9% Agriculture, 6% Industrial, 19% Electricity (Imports), 12% High GWP, 3% Transportation, 38% Electricity (In State), 11% Source: California Air Resources Board Source: CARB 2010 Slide 12

13 Vehicle GHG emissions Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane Black carbon Nitrous Oxide HFC Engine Transmission A/C compressor CO2 Source: CARB 2010 Slide 13

14 Global Demand for Cars COUNTRY POPULATION (Millions) CARS per 1000 people Italy Germany Canada Australia France Sweden USA UK Japan Norway S. Korea China 1, Kenya / Philippines 36.0 / India 1, Source: The Economist 2009 Slide 14

15 Hybrid Technology: Sales Trend Hybrid electric-gasoline vehicles (HEV) sales in the U.S.: Honda Insight launched in 1999 Toyota Prius is highest seller U.S. is half of current world hybrid sales 1.6 million total US sales through 2009 o o 2.8% of 2009 U.S. sales 5.3% of 2009 California sales Honda Insight Honda Civic Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Ford Escape Ford Fusion Toyota Prius Saturn Vue Source: CARB 2010 Lexus 400h Chevrolet Tahoe Sources: hybridcars.com, greencarcongress.com Slide 15

16 Hybrid Technology: GHG Reduction Hybrid vehicle models commercialized in U.S. Span vehicles: compacts, sedans, crossovers, large SUVs, pickups Average 33% CO 2 /mi reduction, 50% mpg increase vs. similar non-hybrids Hybrids also put an upward pressures on vehicle mass (~9%) Source: CARB 2010 Slide 16

17 Hybrid Technology: Forecasts Hybrids sales today and in the future Early in technology growth period: ~3% of U.S., ~5% Calif. sales However, the technology leader (Toyota) sells 11% hybrids Sales share over the next decade is unknown Forecasts from JD Power, Booz Allen, JP Morgan, US EIA, National Research Council, Morgan Stanley, Kiplinger Source: CARB 2010 Slide 17

18 Emerging GHG-Reduction Technologies Vehicle system Technology Approximate GHG-per-mile reduction * Percent U.S. adoption (MY2008) # Variable valve timing 2-8% 53% Cylinder deactivation 3-6% 6% Engine Turbocharging 2-5% 2% Gasoline direct injection (stoich. and lean) 10-15% 4% Compression ignition diesel 15-40% 0.1% Digital valve actuation 5-10% 0% Homogeneous charge compression ignition 15-20% 0% 5 speed 2-4% 32% Transmission 6+ speed 3-5% 21% Continuously variable 4-6% 8% Automated manual, dual clutch 4-8% 1% Lightweighting 10-20% Aerodynamics 5-8% Overall Tire rolling resistance 2-8% vehicle Efficiency auxiliaries (steering, alternator, A/C) 2-10% Stop-start mild hybrid 5-7% 0.2% Hybrid electric system 20-50% 2.2% *Many technologies can be combined, but percents are not strictly additive; Estimations are based on NAS 2002 CAFE; US EPA/NHTSA, 2009; NESCCAF, # From US EPA, 2009 Source: CARB 2010 Slide 18

19 Efficiency Technology Mid-term engine concepts Digital/camless valve actuation Homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI) Boosted EGR (e.g., HEDGE) Cam-switching 2/4-stroke switching Atkinson GM s HCCI SturmandVA SwRI s HEDGE Source: CARB 2010 Lotus OMNIVORE Ricardo 2/4SIGHT Slide 19

20 Mass-Reduction: GHG Potential Vehicle mass-reduction or lightweighting Mass reduces the overall load of the vehicle that must be powered and accelerated during driving If mass of vehicle is reduced, vehicle engine size and power can be reduced while maintaining the same performance o Performance [0-10 mph, 0-60 mph, mph, hp/wt] For constant performance vehicle o 10% mass reduction ~6% CO 2 /midecrease o 20% mass-reduction ~12% CO 2 /midecrease The effect differs: o Greater emission reduction effect in city/stop-and-go driving o Less emission reduction effect in highway/high-speed driving Reference: Ricardo, Impact of Vehicle Weight Reduction on Fuel Economy for Various Architectures. Prepared for Aluminum Association. Project FB769. Slide 20

21 Mass-Reduction: Automaker Plans Company and fleetwide light-duty vehicle mass reductions are expected in timeframe Major reductions are planned over the next decade Announcement or Assessment Mass reduction per-vehicle (lb) Mass reduction per-vehicle (%) Small cars average % EPA estimates for U.S. fleet Large cars average % Small trucks average % Large trucks average % Mazda average by 2016 ~440 13% Company plans Ford across vehicle platforms by ~14% Nissan average by 2015 ~550 15% Toyota small to mid-size vehicles, 2015 ~ % Reference: US EPA/NHTSA, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for MY GHG and Fuel economy standards. September Source: CARB 2010 Slide 21

22 Mass-Reduction: Europe Super Light Car Major 20M study by auto industry ( ) Consortium of automobile manufacturing companies With European Commission ( 10.5M) funding Objectives Affordable mass-reduced vehicle of the future; improved production/assembly; improved design modeling reliability Results: developed mass-reduced vehicle 180 kg (350 lb) reduction from the vehicle body ~30-35% body-in-white, vehicle mass reduction Conclusions: Automotive light weight solutions are necessary more than ever to reduce CO 2 emissions All the car manufacturers are working on advanced multi-material concepts that better exploit materials lightening potential combining steel, aluminum, magnesium, plastics and composites Reference: Volkswagen Group, Super Light Car: Sustainable Production Technologies for CO2 Emission Reduced Lightweight Car Concepts. Transport Research Arena Europe. April. Slide 22

23 Mass-Reduction Research: Lotus Study Major draft findings: Developed concepts for two mass-reduced vehicles and assessed the bill-of-materials and direct costs Low development: o o o ~ 20% vehicle mass reduction At near-zero net vehicle cost Using conventional manufacturing techniques High development: o o o ~ 33% vehicle mass reduction At modestly increased net vehicle cost Modifications in manufacturing techniques Increased use of high-strength steel, aluminum, magnesium, plastics/composites Suggests continuation of historical material trends o Plus greater system optimization Reference: Lotus Engineering, An Assessment of Mass Reduction Opportunities for a Model Year Vehicle Program. April. Slide 23

24 Passenger Vehicles Slide 24

25 Longer-Term: Further Electrification Chevrolet Silverado Honda Civic Ford Escape Prius PHEV Tesla Nissan Leaf Chevrolet Malibu Saturn Vue Toyota Prius GM Volt Greater drivetrain electrification Gasoline combustion engine Mild Moderate Full Plug-in (PHEV) Battery Electric Vehicle Hybrid electric-gasoline vehicle (HEV) Going from left to right, generally we see. Increased electrical complexity: battery size, motor size, controls More frequent electric motor assist and electric-only propulsion Increased capacity for regenerative power during breaking Increased accessory electrification (air condit., power steering, ) Increasing use of grid electricity (or H 2 ), low life-cycle emissions Source: CARB 2010 Slide 25

26 Longer-Term: Advanced Electric Drivetrains Two major competing technologies Battery electric vehicle (BEVs) Grid electricity offers GHG benefits 0-25% with U.S. electricity mix or ~50% coal 50-60% with California grid mix of ~10-15% coal Challenges: cost, range, mass Plug-in hybrids offer a bridge Lower cost, no range concerns A plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile range could offer 20-60% of all-electric range Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) Fuel cells are 2-3 times more efficient than conventional gasoline vehicles Hydrogen benefits depend on primary energy sources: 20-50% derived from natural gas 50%+ derived from renewable sources Challenges: cost, mass, infrastructure Saturn Vue PHEV Prius PHEV GM: test FCVs Honda FCX Clarity Toyota FCV GM Volt EREV Tesla (2009) Mercedes F-Cell Nissan Leaf EV Smart EV Hyundai FCEV Source: CARB 2010 Fuel cell stack Compressed hydrogen storage Slide 26

27 Fuels of the Future While fossil fuels will be around for some time, we need to develop alternatives for many reasons: o Environmental impacts of exploration, transport and use of oil o Increasingly expensive to retrieve o Global competition for supplies will eventually drive up costs o Will need major investments to eliminate or sequester carbon to reduce impact on climate o Need diversity in fuel sources Slide 27

28 Giant Oil Spill Threatens Gulf Coast April 22, 2010: The Deepwater Horizon oil rig stationed in the Gulf of Mexico, 40 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, sinks after exploding and catching fire two days earlier. London-based BP PLC owns the rig, which is now leaking an estimated 5,000 barrels of oil per day. The resulting oil slick threatens to upset habitats in a number of states on the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Here, rescue ships attempt to put out the fire that resulted from the explosion. Newscom/Zuma Used with permission from the TPM websites, a service of TPM Media LLC. Slide 28

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30 Cleaner Options for Future Fuels Increased use of natural gas Second and third generation biofuels (without impact on food supplies and adverse indirect land use) Examples cellulosic material to ethanol, algae to biogasoline Electricity & hydrogen from renewable and a variety of sources Nuclear energy (?) Slide 30

31 Source: Honda Fuel Cell Vehicle Activities presentation by Stephen Ellis, Manager FCV Marketing Slide 31

32 SHS Concept Original H2 Station Next Generation H2 Station Electrolyzer Compressor Storage Electrolyzer Coiled Hose Fast Fill Slow Fill Specifications 0.5 kg per 8 hours Overnight fill Replaces average daily commute Annual H 2 production equivalent to ~10,000 miles/year 25% improvement in efficiency Fuel meets SAE (J2719) and ISO (14687) specs

33 Sharing Knowledge and Experience in Emissions Controls A Chance to Leapfrog As vehicles last longer, their on road emissions beyond the initial warranty period, need to be addressed No point in pushing for new fleet leapfrogging if older vehicle pollute more than offset gains The more sophisticated and complex the aftertreatment, the more the concern for older vehicles being gross emitters Not only LDV but also HDV equipped with SCR and filters, more emphasis on retrofits Slide 33

34 Slide 34

35 Challenges: Development Potential barriers to new propulsion systems Higher vehicle first cost Learning & economies of scale not realized Fueling Storage, infrastructure, range issues May be higher or lower (electricity) cost Safety, reliability, durability concerns Customer lack of awareness & risk aversion Manufacturers risk aversion Sunk capital costs in current technology Courtesy AC Transit Daimler Fuel Cell Vehicle

36 Challenges: Commercialization Production build-up issues in addition to potential development barriers: Development lead times and availability across product platforms Capital investment required Supply of critical systems/components Capacity utilization Competition from continuing improvements from conventional technologies

37 Co-Benefits of Addressing Conventional Pollutants and GHGs at Same Time Black carbon is a component of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) generated from combustion sources PM 2.5 is a serious health hazard BC is also has a significant impact on climate change Policies should be developed to address both issues simultaneously for more cost effective implementation Slide 37

38 Black carbon Black carbon is a solid particle emitted during incomplete combustion Climate impacts, health impacts On and off-road opportunities for reductions Source: Flickr Slide 38

39 IPCC shows black carbon has already contributed significantly to climate warming Black Carbon ICCT graphical representation of Figure 2.22 contained in Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D.W. Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D.C. Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R. Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schulz and R. Van Dorland, 2007: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Slide 39

40 Concluding Comments Environmental and climate change challenges provide opportunities for leapfrogging to the latest, state-of-the art technologies Ability to apply leapfrog technologies will vary locally, regionally and nationally Cost will be a major factor in developing and developed nations Experience with cell phone shows how leapfrogging technologies can have dramatic impacts, somewhat independent of economic conditions Lessons learned and best practices solutions need to be shared between developed and developing world Leapfrogging can happen in developing world with lessons for developed world, e.g. electrification Aggressive policies are needed to encourage the RD& D of advanced technologies Slide 40

41 Concluding Comments Technology is only part of solution, mobility is a key Must encourage mass transit and personal transportation (walking and cycling, provided good air quality) Use of information technology to reduce travel, improve telecommuting and efficiency, should be fully explored While examples of dramatic leapfrogging exist in telecommunication, doing so in the transportation sector will be much more challenging and will take longer The developing world may be easier to deploy certain advanced technologies than the developed world Advanced technology deployment should consider mobility and include mass transit, clean vehicles and fuels and preservation of non-motorized transport such as cycling and walking Slide 41

42 Acknowledgement I would like to Thank: ICCT Funders from: Energy Foundation ClimateWorks Hewlett Foundation Staff at the ICCT for help in preparing this presentation Slide 42