Polish Real Estate Forum Series: Trends and Reviews

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1 5. POLISH REAL ESTATE FORUM 8-9 June 2015, Sheraton Hotel, Sopot The conferences from the Polish Real Estate Forum series are the biggest and most prestigious meetings for the residential and commercial real estate industry in Poland. These events each year attract more than 400 participants the biggest market players, investors, developers, local authorities, agents, consultancies and bank representatives. PREF conference programmes are designed so that particular panels and presentations focus on the most important issues and problems of today s market and show concrete solutions for the most pressing ones. Opening lectures at previous editions have been delivered by renowned Polish economists, including Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, Ryszard Petru, Dariusz Rosati or Krzysztof Rybiński. Among the speakers, moderators and panelists are industry journalists, reputed analysts and representatives of boards of the biggest players in the market. During both days of the conference, the participants have an opportunity to exchange experiences, make new business contacts and keep abreast with the latest trends in the market. Thanks to a special program called Match Maker, you can arrange an individual meeting with any of the conference participants. A traditional banquet, held in the evening on the first day of the conference in one of Sopot s clubs, also favours integration. Relaxed atmosphere and evening attractions are conducive to establishing new contacts and strengthening those that already exist between participants in the event. 8 June Registration. Breakfast Opening lecture THE CONFERENCE PROGRAMME The new Urban and Construction Code a chance for normality after decades of chaos? The Urban and Construction Code currently being developed is supposed to be a breakthrough legislation normalizing relations between the urban planning sphere and entities implementing investment processes. The document will entirely replace the current Construction law and the Land Development Act. The date of its

2 entry into force will open a completely new chapter for our real estate industry. However, legislators have repeatedly proved that even less complex legal acts of lesser magnitude are not devoid of elementary errors in their early versions. Will it happen once again? New procedures for adopting local land development plans. The scrapping of the decision on land development conditions a good or bad move? The mode of public investment implementation similar to the so-called special acts? Moderator: dr Władysław Jan Brzeski, Partner, REAS Panelists: Grzegorz Buczek, Vice President, Polish Town-planner Society Tomasz Bąkowski, professor of University of Gdańsk, lawyer, spatial planning specialist, Legislative Council Member in The Chancellery of the Prime Minister Grzegorz Kiełpsz, President, Polish Association of Business Developers Janusz Lipiński, Managment Consultant, Polish Association of Real Estate Consultants Grzegorz Tomaszewski, Managing Director for Real Estate, PKP SA Coffee break What to do with the bubble in the capital s office market? According to CBRE consultancy, 46 new office buildings with a total space of more than 660,000 sq m are currently being developed in Warsaw. The supply of new offices will reach its peak in the second quarter of 2016, with the vacancy rate rising to a record percent from today s nearly 14 percent. This will translate into about 900,000 sq m of vacant office spaces! With a declining net absorption, it will mean a fierce price war and undisputed rule of tenants in the market. Have the developers overestimated their own and the market s capabilities? Class B and who else? office facilities that will be hardest hit by competition for customers. How big can be discounts and incentives for tenants? When the supply surge retreats the outlook. Moderator: Łukasz Kałędkiewicz, Senior Director Landlord Representation, CBRE Panelists: Tomasz Buras, Managing Director, Director od Department Office, Savills Polska Katarzyna Zawodna, Managing Director, Skanska Property Poland Richard Aboo, Partner and Head of Department Office, Cushman&Wakefield The Polish commercial space market today and tomorrow findings from Retail-Database.com information and database platform and Galerie Handlowe magazine.

3 The Polish commercial space market has been growing rapidly for several months. More than 350 commercial facilities are currently under construction, and more than 500,000 sq m of new space is likely to be delivered in the second half of the year alone. Can we therefore say that the domestic shopping centre market faces a tough time ahead? Examples from the West show that increased competition, online sales growth and changing consumer shopping habits can pose quite a challenge for shopping centres. What trends will drive the commercial real estate market in the years ahead? What are the features of new projects? Are there any ways to effectively attract customers in the long run? Lunch break The victims of Black Thursday when (if ever) will they return to the residential market? Mortgage loans in Swiss francs are currently being repaid by almost 550,000 families in Poland. As a result of the abrupt appreciation of this currency on Thursday, 15 January 2015, up to 30 percent of households from this group are now burdened with loans exceeding the value of their properties. In practice it means that these apartments and houses are unsellable. And we are talking here about around 160,000 dwellings, or nearly a three-year output of our developer market. Do these people have any chance to return to the residential market as customers in the near future? Who is to blame for this situation borrowers or banks? Systemic assistance programs for CHF loan holders on the example of Hungarian and Croatian solutions. WIBOR and LIBOR outlook for Moderator: Michał Kisiel, Analyst, bankier.pl Paneliści: Andrzej Reich, Director of the Banking, Payment Institutions and Credit Unions Regulations Department, Polish Financial Supervision Authority Łukasz Molenda, Head of Credit Area, BZ WBK Áron Horváth, PhD., leader of ELTINGA Centre for Real Estate Research 16:05 17:20 New regulations for e-commerce and their importance for the warehouse industry. The extension of the right of complaint to 12 months and the right to return goods purchased online without specifying the reason to 14 days imposes new responsibilities on online shop operators. It will also be relevant for the warehouse industry. What storage facilities work best for handling e-commerce and how quickly do their tenants respond to changes in the market? Handling returns an endless nightmare or a routine annoyance? The latest technologies to aid the storage of goods offered by e-shops.

4 Forecasts for growth in demand for warehouse spaces for e-commerce in the coming 24 months. Moderator: Maciej Górka, Expert from Domiporta.pl Paneliści: Zbigniew Gawęda, Manager e-commerce, Fiege Marcin Klimaszewski, e-commerce Polska expert, CEO in CloudPack Coffee break Showrooms instead of traditional shops empty threats of e-traders or a not-too-distant future? The most ardent proponents of e-commerce predict that traditional shopping facilities will lose their raison d etre within the next dozen years or so. All transactions will be made online, and shops will turn from shopping places into showrooms where you will be able to see goods for real before ordering them on the Internet. Although e-commerce growth in Poland is a bit slower than in the West, tenants of spaces in shopping centres, their developers and managers should think about adapting to new market realities already today. A paper tiger or a sleeping giant? The outlook for e-commerce growth in the apparel, home appliances and FMCG industries in the next two years. Buy online, pick it up offline why is this model so little popular in Poland? The falling numbers of visitors to shopping centres is the trend reversible at all? Moderator: Wojciech Wojnowski, journalist, retailnet.pl Panelists: Magdalena Frątczak, Director of Commercial Space Department, CBRE Jacek Wesołowski, Member of the Board, Immofinanz Services Poland Radosław Knap, General Director, Polish Council of Shopping Centres Marcin Materny, Director of Commercial Space Department, Echo Investment Banquet. 9 June Breakfast Opening lecture Coffee break.

5 Small developers, be afraid the potential effects of amendments to the so-called developer act for the residential industry. Amendments to the developer act proposed by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection have been met with mixed feelings by the developer industry. Even though some of its demands have been included in the draft amendments (e.g. the issues of reservation agreements and information prospectuses), a lot of controversy has arisen over the plan to introduce compulsory insurance or bank guarantees for open escrow accounts. Developers are afraid that this change could hit small and middle-sized companies and consequently lead to a further consolidation of the market. Will it really be so? The current state of drafting amendments to the act. The extension of warranty in the Civil Code from 3 to 5 years what does it mean for developers? The issues of bankruptcies of developer companies how to untie the Gordian knot? Moderator: dr Paweł Kuglarz, Partner, Wolf Theiss law company Panelists: Konrad Płochocki, Director General, Polish Association of Business Developers Andrzej Biernacki, Chairman of the Board, Ekolan Karol Dzięcioł, Head of Development Advisory&Valuation Team, REAS Iwona Załuska, Chairman of the Board, Upper Finance Consulting A logistician comes to a developer examples of successful cooperation between tenants and warehouse developers case studies. Stories of tenant-developer tandem cooperation: first ever such presentations in the Polish warehouse market. Moderator: Artur Olejniczak, Logistyka magazine Secretary, Instytute of Logistics and Storage Panelists: Piotr Bzowski, Director of Leasing and Development, P Lunch break Parking lots, parking lots, parking lots, or why cities do nothing to support the development of so-called high streets. None of the major Polish cities not even Warsaw can boast a genuine high street. Experts blame this partly on city authorities, which are not interested in supporting this form of commerce. Some analysts are of the opinion that the development of such streets depends on large numbers of parking spaces in the vicinity. City authorities claim it is quite the opposite parking lots in city centres should be closed and good access should be provided by public transport. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. But where exactly? High streets in large European capitals and parking lots a comparison.

6 How could cities actively support the creation of high streets? City parking lots in the PPP formula why are they not being created? Moderator: Patrycja Dzikowska, Associate Director, DTZ Paneliści: Patryk Zaremba, Member of the Board, Warsaw Development Forum Michał Wikliński, CEO, City Parking Group Zygmunt Zmuda-Trzebiatowski, Gdynia City Councillor 16: What to do to make sure the BPO express does not slow down? The growth of the business services sector and the government s policy. The business services industry (BPO/SSC) is growing at a blistering, nearly 20-percent pace in Poland. It is estimated that the threshold of 200,000 people employed in this sector will be crossed this year in comparison, the automotive industry in Poland employs 170,000 people. Poland still beats the competition with its low labour costs and availability of large quantities of skilled labour. Experts stress, however, that this situation will not last forever the simplest services will move to cheaper locations in the East over time. Poland s chance is to focus on specialized services that require high skills. It takes, however, in-depth market reforms, beginning with the education system. Labour law flexibility and the needs of the business services industry. IT specialists with soft skills, or what kind of university graduates are most wanted by the BPO sector. Proposed legislative changes relating to the creation and management of international investment funds and specialized financial entities. Moderator: Wiktor Doktór, CEO in Pro Progressio Foundation Paneliści: Błażej Kucharski, Regional Director in Tricity, Colliers International Polska Anna Staniszewska, Director Research & Consulting, CEE, BNP Paribas Real Estate Magdalena Reńska, Head of Gdańsk Office, JLL Ewa Koruba, Regional Director, HAYS Talent Solutions The conclusion of the conference.