PREPARED FOR: OFFICE OF THE CHANCELLOR 500 WELLS FARGO PLACE 30 EAST SEVENTH STREET ST. PAUL, MN PREPARED BY:

Transcription

1 NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY OF PROFESSIONAL PEACE OFFICER EDUCATION PROGRAMS IN MINNESOTA Final Report PREPARED FOR: OFFICE OF THE CHANCELLOR 500 WELLS FARGO PLACE 30 EAST SEVENTH STREET ST. PAUL, MN PREPARED BY: 2123 CENTRE POINTE BLVD. TALLAHASSEE, FL DECEMBER 19, 2007

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... i 1.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND Overview of Project Professional Peace Officer Educational Pipeline Minnesota s Professional Peace Officer Education Programs SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR PROGRAM GRADUATES Indicators of Law Enforcement Labor Market Conditions Projected Number of Future Graduates Employer and Academic Community Assessment of Current and Future Need for PPOE Graduates Population Projections Occupational Projections and Estimated Job Openings Estimated Level of Supply Needed to Meet Demand in Minnesota Estimated Level of Supply Needed to Meet Demand, Adjusting for Out-of-State Employment Summary and Recommendations ASSESSING OPTIMAL PROGRAM LOCATION Introduction Distance Between Population and Program Locations Skills Training and Academic Program Locations Distance Between Employers and Program Locations Appropriate Distances Between Academic and Skills-Training Locations Program Delivery Models Decision Model for Balancing Program Location and Efficiency SKILLS PROGRAM FACILITIES NEEDS Introduction Minimum Facility Requirements Description of Current Facilities Site Visit Observations Employer and Training Coordinator Assessment of Capacity Levels Other Training Facilities in Minnesota Cost of Facilities Summary and Recommendations

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) PAGE 5.0 SKILLS ASSESSMENT MODEL Introduction Defining Skills Standards for PPOE Programs Proposed Performance Indicators and Data Availability Recommended Technical Skills Attainment Indicator APPENDICES APPENDIX A: Methodology for Selecting Employers to Be Interviewed APPENDIX B: Interviews Conducted APPENDIX C: Projected Number of Graduates APPENDIX D: Comparison of Data Reported to Post Board and IPEDS APPENDIX E: Example of State Guidelines for Law Enforcement Training Space APPENDIX F: Operating Costs, Estimated Build Costs, and Lease Costs

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. Objective of the Study The Chancellor s Office of the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU) system commissioned this study to examine the need for additional Professional Peace Officer Education (PPOE) programs. PPOE programs prepare students for careers as police officers, sheriffs, state patrol officers, and other agents of law enforcement. As of August 2007, there were 27 PPOE programs on the POST (Peace Officer Standards and Training) Board s approved program list. In 2005, MnSCU issued a three-year moratorium on new PPOE programs so it could examine the need for additional programs in more detail. The Chancellor s Office contracted with MGT of America, Inc., a higher education research and planning firm, to assess the need for additional programs. This report summarizes the results of that assessment. It is divided into three components: An evaluation of the supply and demand for program graduates to anticipate the future need for program graduates (Chapter 2). An assessment of program location and delivery models (Chapter 3) An assessment of skills-training facilities needs, which includes decision model that considers options for expanding facility capacity (Chapter 4). Additionally, the study provided the opportunity to examine how technical skill attainment is measured for PPOE programs and how this process may inform the technical skills measurement process required under the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Improvement Act of 2006 (Chapter 5). MGT used a variety of methodologies to investigate these topics. These included analyzing demographic data and occupation projections; interviewing training coordinators, faculty, instructors, and a cross-section of employers; and conducting site visits at four of the seven skills-training facilities. The results and recommendations are summarized in the next three sections. II. Supply and Demand of PPOE Graduates Finding: The number of current and expected PPOE graduates and the number that pass the licensing exam generally exceed the number of job openings projected for the next five years. This parallels the historic trend: there is a significant difference between the number of PPOE program graduates and the number of newly licensed officers in Minnesota each year. It is unclear as to who falls into this gap and why they do not transition to employment in Minnesota state and municipal law enforcement positions. Understanding this disparity would help to more closely monitor annual supply and demand balance. MGT of America, Inc. Page i

6 Executive Summary Recommendation 1: Given the described gap, we recommend that MnSCU identify and quantify the components of the gap between PPOE graduates and newly licensed officers, and monitor the gap on an annual basis. Analysis of this gap will help determine the extent to which employer demand is being met and where supply loss occurs. - While MnSCU collects data on the number of graduates by Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) code, PPOE program graduates do not fall into their own CIP code. For instance, some students graduating with a degree in Criminal Justice/Police Science do not complete skills training or other PPOE requirements. Appendix D provides a comparison of graduate data reported at the CIP code level to IPEDS and data reported to the POST Board. The data are generally inconsistent. This is due in part to the way data is collected. IPEDS data reports the number of degrees awarded, so a student that obtains a skills certificate and an associates of arts is counted twice, however the POST Board counts individuals. To estimate the head count from IPEDS data, MnSCU could use the historical ratios of graduates reported by the POST Board to the numbers reported by IPEDS. For instance, in a total of 815 PPOE graduates were reported to the POST Board, and 1,116 degrees were reported in the IPEDS graduation file under the CIP Criminal Justice/Police Science CIP. The ratio of the former to the later is 73%.This portion could be applied to the number of degrees awarded in future years to estimate the number of PPOE graduates. Possible reasons for the gap, noted by training coordinators and others in the academic community, include: - Enrollment in a 4-year degree program in related field - Out-of-state employment - Employment in a related field, like corrections - Employment in a different occupation because they could not find a job in the field - Employment in different occupation by choice - Not meeting the criteria for pre-employment background tests or other requirements Data to support this effort is already being maintained by MnSCU. The graduation survey includes self-reported data on a graduate s job title and its relatedness to his/her program of study. Recommendation 2: Despite the apparent adequate supply numbers, our interviews with employers indicated there is concern that not enough PPOE graduates are meeting employment selection standards. Therefore, to insure that institutions are MGT of America, Inc. Page ii

7 Executive Summary providing students with consistent information about employment requirements (prior to program enrollment), we recommend the following: MnSCU should establish a working group to review current practices and establish guidelines for institutions to follow in regards to program and employment requirements, standards, and qualifications prior to and at the time of program entry. The POST Board currently provides general guidelines about the minimum employment selection standards, which could serve as a starting point for this MnSCU working group. - Although institutions do provide information about prerequisites for employment, the type of information provided and the manner in which it is transmitted varies from institution to institution. For example, Hibbing Community College displays the prerequisites for employment on its course description webpage. 1 The Rochester Technical and Community College program description webpage recommends a preplanning meeting with the program advisor to determine proper sequence of courses. 2 Additionally, the POST Board provides guidelines for informing students about the minimum selection standards and the psychological exam guidelines (required for employment). 3 III. Location, Program Delivery Models, and Facilities Needs Findings: The PPOE academic programs are widely distributed across the state. They tend to be located outside of the 7 county the St. Paul/Minneapolis Metropolitan area, where 53% of the state population resides. A significant proportion of the total law enforcement positions across the state are located within the metro area. The current mix of program delivery models provides a flexible delivery system. The majority (16/21) of employers interviewed were generally satisfied with the academic and skill levels of graduates produced by the current mix of programs and delivery methods. Though, some noted that graduates could have better writing skills and/or life skills, such as ethics, customer service, and balancing work and family issues POST selection standards: Psychological exam guidelines: MGT of America, Inc. Page iii

8 Executive Summary Our interviews indicate that there is a waiting list for skills-training, mostly in the metro area. Six of twenty-one employers referenced a waiting list. At the same time, a substantial number of respondents (7 of 21 employers and 5 of 14 training coordinators) noted that there is currently adequate skillstraining capacity across the state. Recommendation 3: Based on the assessment, at this time we do not recommend that MnSCU add new academic program locations. Any changes to existing programs curriculums, their certificate offerings, or emphasis areas should be handled by current program review practices. These are not considered new programs since they are part of an existing academic program. Further, we have concluded that academic programs are adequately distributed across the state. Therefore, we recommend that MnSCU maintain the current geographical distribution of academic programs. However, in the event that an existing program seeks re-location, the movement should avoid duplication of programs, replication of related services in the region, and demonstrate that the relocation has a compelling benefit to residents of the region and the state. Recommendation 4: In order to ease the waiting list for skills-training in the metro-area, we recommend that MnSCU determine the current skills center capacity and identify the related capacity changes that are likely for the planned new facilities (CCJLE and Alexandria). MGT did some preliminary investigation on this topic during our interviews with program directors, but given that the projects are early in their planning cycle we were not able to obtain much detail on the expected capacity. Recommendation 5: Based on the review of existing skills-training sites, facilities and delivery models, at this time we do not recommend any new skills-training centers be added beyond those already progressing through the State s planning cycle. Since skill-center capacity data are not readily available, MnSCU should identify the maximum capacity at existing PPOE skills-training facilities and compare it to supply and demand trends on an annual basis before approving any new facilities or sites. The capacity baseline should consist of current capacity and the additional capacity that may be gained from the proposed Alexandria expansion and the new Metropolitan State University/CCJLE location. Requests for expansions of current sites, adding more mobile locations, or conversion of sites from mobile locations to joint programs should be handled on a case-by-case basis. Factors such as waiting lists, current state-wide and regional unused capacity, MGT of America, Inc. Page iv

9 Executive Summary and the start-up and annual cost of additional or conversion should be considered in making the decision. Recommendation 6: As capacity approaches demand for newly hired officers in Minnesota, we recommend MnSCU and its institutions consider the following strategies to expand skills-training capacity on an as- needed basis. Listed in order of priority: Consider low-cost ways to acquire additional space at existing centers. Options include creating additional time slots to use existing space more efficiently or considering the use of existing multipurpose spaces, such as gymnasiums. Another option is to acquire or construct shoot-houses or similar specialty-use facilities at little or no cost to the institution (and the state) with donated materials and donated time. Other centers have secured time at nearby gun ranges in exchange for providing training opportunities to local law enforcement agencies. Consider the expansion of mobile programs into new geographic areas. The mobile program option provides remote sites with all the necessary equipment (including squad cars, fire-arms training simulator, defensive tactics mats, weapons, etc.). Most training is provided on or near the campus of the nonskills training institution. (Often local gun-ranges are leased for fire arms training.) Consider expanding space (i.e., capacity) at existing skills-training centers. This option may prove more costly than the previous two options listed above. It is reasonable to assume that the system may need additional capacity in the future when the supply of graduates nears the employment demand. Finally, consider adding new skills-training centers. This is the most costly option relative to the other alternatives. Recommendation 7: When an existing skills center reaches its training capacity, we recommend MnSCU and the institution give students the option to choose in advance which skill-program/center they will attend. This will allow for more system flexibility and space utilization efficiency, and will help balance demand and capacity pressures while accommodating the interests of students. Recommendation 8: We recommend that MnSCU explore collaborations with employer-run training facilities in order to address excessive demand on specific skills center facilities. These could include: Specialty facilities (gun ranges, driving sites) Temporary gaps (e.g., periodic skills center waiting lists) MGT of America, Inc. Page v

10 Executive Summary Unpredicted fluctuations in demand trends (unforeseen increases or decreases in demand) Unexpected disruption in access to current skills centers IV. Measuring Technical Skill Attainment Findings: Employers interviewed for this study generally agreed that the PPOE licensing exam measured the basic academic aspects of the programs. However, several noted that the exam did not explicitly measure skills nor did they necessarily expect it to. Several noted that successfully completing the field training period was perhaps a better measure of skill, but that such a real-world setting simply could not be replicated by a standardized exam. During the field training period the new officer works in tandem with a field training officer (FTO). The new officer is given progressively more policing responsibility but is always being encouraged and critiqued by the FTO. Recommendation 9: Based on our examination of the skills measurement process surrounding the PPOE program, we recommend a two prong approach to measuring skill assessment. First, for programs that lead to jobs in licensed occupations such as the PPOE program and nursing, we recommend relying on the portion of program graduates passing the licensing exam as the measure of technical skill attainment. Although no sharing agreements are in development, the POST board has expressed its willingness to share program level exam passing rates with MnSCU. The exam is given six times a year (during every even month). Second, for programs not leading to jobs in a licensed occupation, we recommend using multiple indicators that includes a DOE compatible definition. Although the Department of Education does not consider related employment as a proxy for skills attainment, we think it is an appropriate measure for skill attainment since employment is a fundamental outcome of most educational pursuits. Additionally, MnSCU s current graduation survey already collects information on this topic. The Career and Technical Education community is currently in the midst of debating and developing what the appropriate measure of skill attainment (under Perkins IV) could be. Therefore, we recommend MnSCU continue to monitor this discussion and select a measure that is compatible with DOE requirements. MGT of America, Inc. Page vi

11 1.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND

12 1.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 1.1 Overview of Project Minnesota s Professional Peace Officer Education (PPOE) programs prepare students for careers in law enforcement through a combination of academic courses and practical skills-training courses. Between 2002 and 2006, an average of 758 students completed the PPOE program. Twenty-two of the 27 PPOE academic programs and all seven of the skills-training facilities belong to the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU) system. In 2004, one of the colleges submitted a request to the MnSCU Chancellor s Office to begin an eighth skills-training program. The college cited cost and scheduling concerns with its current skills-training arrangement as one reason for the request. The Chancellor s Office recommended against the new program. It cited several reasons, including that an additional program would duplicate services. The Chancellor s Office also issued a three-year moratorium on adding new law enforcement programs. Consequently, MnSCU s System Office of Planning contracted with MGT of America, Inc., to assess the need for additional PPOE programs. The study components included: Evaluating the supply and demand for program graduates to determine the future need for program graduates (Chapter 2.0). Assessing program location and delivery models (Chapter 3.0). Determining skills-training facilities needs, which includes decision model that considers options for expanding facility capacity (Chapter 4.0). PPOE programs and the associated licensing process also offer an opportunity to examine how skills standards are established and examine what aspects of their skills standard model could provide guidance for measuring technical skill attainment as required by the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Improvement Act of This topic is addressed in Chapter 5.0. To examine these topics, MGT: Analyzed demographic and occupational trends, as well as facilities data provided by MnSCU. Interviewed a cross-section of employers across the nine POST (Peace Officer Standards and Training) Board regions and seven Minnesota Planning Areas. Interviewed training coordinators, faculty, and deans across the 27 programs. Conducted site visits of four of the seven skills-training facilities. MGT of America, Inc. Page 1-1

13 Project Background The remainder of this chapter describes the pipeline students follow to become a licensed peace officers and the structure of PPOE programs in Minnesota. 1.2 Professional Peace Officer Educational Pipeline The typical pathway for becoming a licensed peace officer in Minnesota is illustrated in Exhibit 1-1. First students begin by enrolling in a POST-approved academic program (which includes both bachelor s degree programs and associate degree programs) and the skills program. Students who complete both components are qualified to take the POST Peace Officer Licensing Exam. Those who pass the exam are eligible for employment. Only upon being hired are they issued a professional peace officer license. EXHIBIT 1-1 PATHWAY FROM ENROLLING IN PPOE PROGRAM TO BECOMING A LICENSED PEACE OFFICER IN MINNESOTA Enroll in PPOE program Complete PPOE academic and skills program at same location Complete PPOE academic and skills program at different locations > Sign up for POST licensing exam > Pass exam then > eligible for license Hired by Minnesota law enforcement agency and obtain license Source: MGT rendering based on interviews. Between 2001 and 2005, an average of 715 students passed the Peace Officer Licensing Exam administered by the Minnesota POST Board. 1.3 Minnesota s Professional Peace Officer Education Programs PPOE programs consist of an academic component and a skills component. The academic component familiarizes students with civil and criminal law, policing, and general law enforcement topics. The skills component provides basic training in areas such as firearms training, defensive tactics, and emergency vehicle operation. The Minnesota Peace Officer Standards and Training Board has the statutory authority to approve and oversee the PPOE programs in the state. As of August 2007, there were 27 institutions with approved PPOE programs (Exhibit 1-2). These PPOE programs graduated a total of 815 students in the academic year. This number represented a slight decrease from the 828 students who completed the program in All 27 institutions offer the academic component, and seven offer the skillstraining component. MGT of America, Inc. Page 1-2

14 Project Background EXHIBIT 1-2 MINNESOTA INSTITUTIONS WITH PPOE PROGRAMS MnSCU Institutions 1. Alexandria Technical College 2. Bemidji State University 3. Central Lakes College 4. Century Community and Technical College 5. Fond du Lac Tribal and Community College 6. Hibbing Community College* 7. Inver Hills Community College 8. Leech Lake Tribal College 9. Metropolitan State University 10. Minneapolis Community and Technical College (Center for Criminal Justice and Law Enforcement) 11. Minnesota State Community and Technical College (Fergus Falls) 12. Minnesota State University, Mankato 13. Minnesota State University, Moorhead 14. Minnesota West Community and Technical College - Worthington Campus 15. Normandale Community College 16. North Hennepin Community College 17. Northland Community and Technical College 18. Ridgewater College 19. Rochester Community and Technical College** 20. St. Cloud State University 21. Vermilion Community College 22. Winona State University Private Institutions 23. Concordia-St. Paul 24. Hamline University 25. Rasmussen College (Added August 2007) 26. Saint Mary's University 27. University of St. Thomas *Some classes offered at Rainy River Community College. ** Some classes offered at Riverland Community College. To our knowledge neither of these class offerings are part of mobile programs. Source: POST Board, August The academic component and skills-training component are joined together via one of the following models: The seven institutions with their own skills-training facilities operate joint programs in which students complete both components. Sixteen institutions without on-site skills-training facilities send their students to a skills-training institution to complete the skills Academic Skills MGT of America, Inc. Page 1-3

15 Project Background component. This is referred to as the separate program model. 1 Five of these 16 institutions participate in the Metro Area Consortium. Hibbing Community College operates a mobile program in which equipment and materials (mats, forensic equipment, firearms training simulator, squad vehicles, etc.) are brought to academic sites for onsite skills training. Exhibit 1-3 depicts the relationships between the 27 institutions offering the academic component and the seven offering the skills component. The next chapter takes a broader view and examines whether together these 27 institutions are producing enough graduates to meet the expected demand for licensed peace officers in Minnesota. 1 This presumes that Rasmussen College will operate under the separate model. They were added to the list of PPOE programs in August MGT of America, Inc. Page 1-4

16 Project Background EXHIBIT 1-3 ACADEMIC AND SKILLS COMPONENT PAIRINGS, 2007 (In parentheses: Average number of academic completers, ) Ridgewater College (16) Hamline University (<3) Concordia University (<3) Winona State Univ. (16) Rasmussen College (added in 2007) St. Mary s University (<3) MN State Community and Technical College (15) Source: POST Board and MGT interviews, MSU- Moorhead (10) Alexandria, Skills (121) Rochester (42) (Academic & Skills) St. Cloud State University (32) Bemidji State University (21) MSU- Mankato (45) University of St. Thomas (6) Fond du Lac (55) (Academic & Skills) Northland (22) (Academic & Skills) Central Lakes College (24) Minnesota West CTC Worthington (32) Hibbing, Skills (41) (Mobile) Vermilion (25) (Academic & Skills) Leech Lake Tribal Metro Area College Consortium (233) CCJLE Inver Hills North Hennepin Normandale Century Metro State University (33) CCJLE Minneapolis Community and Technical College Skills MGT of America, Inc. Page 1-5

17 2.0 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR PROGRAM GRADUATES

18 2.0 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR PROGRAM GRADUATES 2.1 Indicators of Law Enforcement Labor Market Conditions This chapter assesses the current and future demand for Professional Peace Officer Education (PPOE) program graduates and the extent to which the current and expected supply of graduates meets this demand. PPOE programs in Minnesota generally prepare students for careers as police officers, sheriff deputies, state patrol officers, and other agents of law enforcement. Gauging the supply of and demand for graduates provides the foundation for the forthcoming chapters, which examine how the location of skills-training facilities and types of facilities are currently meeting demand. An optimal way to assess labor market conditions is to rely on multiple indicators that project future employer demand for graduates. MGT uses the following indicators: Graduation projections: Historical graduation trends, license exam trends, and input from the academic community provide an estimate of the number of graduates who will be available to meet the expected demand. Employer interviews: MGT interviewed employers about their current and future need for program graduates. Employer input provides context for the population and occupational projections and helps identify particular areas of growth or decline. MGT selected employers of varying sizes and representing the different regions in the state. We also obtained input from employer and professional associations. Appendix A explains our methodology for selecting employers to be interviewed. Academic community interviews: MGT obtained input from training coordinators of PPOE programs, instructors, and deans about future enrollment trends and their perspective on employer demand for graduates. Appendix B provides a list of interviewees. All training coordinators were invited to participate in an interview. Population projections: Population projections serve as a guide for government and education planners. Typically, public services and infrastructure expand or contract to keep pace with state and regional population trends. Occupational projections: Occupational projections are one indicator of expected job openings available for PPOE graduates. Regional projections of police occupation job openings were obtained from the state. Also, MGT made additional projections using historical data on the annual number of newly licensed peace officers hired by Minnesota agencies. MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-1

19 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates We use a five-year horizon for most projections because prediction is less reliable over longer time horizons. Five years also corresponds with occupational projections provided by the state. A shorter horizon is less useful for long-term planning purposes. Our conversations with employers, associations, and training coordinators suggested that a large portion of program graduates obtained jobs in Minnesota. Therefore, much of our analysis focuses on Minnesota. However, because it is expected that some graduates will obtain employment in neighboring states, the occupational projections include data from states that share a border with Minnesota. 2.2 Projected Number of Future Graduates Exhibit 2-1 illustrates the number of students in the pipeline spanning from completion of an academic program to success on the licensing exam. In academic year , 1,063 certificates, associates degrees, or bachelor s degrees in criminal justice/police science were conferred by institutions reporting data to IPEDS (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System). This included all schools with POST-approved programs. In the same year, 828 students also completed the skills program required for those planning to take the Peace Officer Licensing Exam. The skills program covers practical skills such as defensive tactics, gun handling, and emergency vehicle operation. Approximately 761 skills graduates passed the licensing exam and 79 passed the reciprocity exam. Reasons for the gradual decline in students across the pipeline are enumerated below. Some graduates of academic programs choose a career path that does not require entering a skills program, which explains much of the drop from 1,063 to 828 completing the skills program. For example, some graduates may enter programs that do not require a peace officer license, such as federal law enforcement jobs. Some of the 1,063 were also graduates of non POST-approved programs. The vast majority of skills program graduates go on to take and pass the exam. However, some decide not to take the exam, take the exam later, or do not pass the exam, which explains the drop from 828 to 761 students. In 2005, an additional 79 candidates took the reciprocity exam, bringing the total passing the exam to 840. The reciprocity exam is designed for people who already have policing experience in another state, military experience, or experience with a federal law enforcement agency. To estimate the number of graduates and candidates who will pass the exam in the future, we rely on historical growth rates to project future growth. As depicted in Exhibit 2-2, the number of students graduating from the skills programs has increased steadily from 2002 to The number of students passing the licensing exam has closely tracked the graduation trend. MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-2

20 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates EXHIBIT 2-1 NUMBER OF STUDENTS AT DIFFERENT STAGES IN THE PEACE OFFICER EDUCATION PIPELINE, ACADEMIC YEAR. 1,200 1,000 Number of Students , Reciprocity PPOE 0 Criminal Justice/Police Science Graduates (Cert., AA, BA) Completed Skills Training (in Addition to Academic Program) Passed Exam Source: POST Board, graduate data from IPEDS Completion File. EXHIBIT 2-2 PPOE SKILLS PROGRAM GRADUATES AND PEACE OFFICER LICENSES ISSUED, Number Completed Skills Training Passed Exam Year Source: POST Board. MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-3

21 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates The average growth rate in the number of skills program graduates between 2002 and 2006 was 5 percent (Exhibit 2-3). We excluded 2001 from the average because the decrease appeared to be an outlier when compared to more recent years. If it were included, the average would be lower at 4 percent. The projected trends are in line with the expectations reported by training coordinators during interviews. To project the number of students who will pass the exam, we simply applied the average portion of students passing the exam each year. Since data on the number who took the exam were not available, we estimated the portion passing the exam as the ratio of the number that passed the exam to the number that graduated from the skills program. The average exam-passing ratio was 95 percent for the period EXHIBIT 2-3 HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES FOR SKILLS PROGRAM GRADUATES AND THOSE PASSING THE LICENSING EXAM, COMPLETED SKILLS PASSED PPOE EXAM* Year # % Change # Est. Passing Rate (=Passed Exam/ Completed Skills) na % % % % % % % % % Average 758 5% % *Reciprocity exams are excluded from the total. Source: POST Board, MGT Projections. Applying the average growth rates in Exhibit 2-3 yielded the trend lines in Exhibit 2-4. We project that 1,041 PPOE skills program graduates and (assuming 95% pass the licensing exam) 989 candidates will pass the exam in MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-4

22 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates EXHIBIT 2-4 PROJECTED SKILLS PROGRAM GRADUATES AND NUMBER PASSING THE LICENSING EXAM, Number Completed Skills Training Passed Exam Year Note: Open circles denote projected numbers. Source: POST Board and MGT projections. We use a second method for projecting the number of program graduates that involves the ratio of newly licensed officers to program graduates. Appendix C displays the historical ratios of newly licensed officers to program graduates. The average for is 68%. Presuming this ratio is maintained into the future, Exhibit 2-4A depicts the number of graduates that will be needed to maintain this ratio. The exhibit depicts three scenarios that are based on the projected demand scenarios described in Section 2.6 MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-5

23 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates EXHIBIT 2-4A PROJECTED SKILLS PROGRAM GRADUATES BASED ON HISTORIC RATIO OF NEWLY LICENSED OFFICERS TO GRADUATES, % Proj Number Completed Skill Training Newly Licensed Officers % Proj 967 2% Proj Year Note: Open circles denote projected numbers. Source: POST Board and MGT projections. Exhibit 2-4B summarizes the supply projections, and indicates that anywhere between 139 and 1,155 graduates are expected. It should be noted that there is substantial uncertainty associated with these projections. Further, the current capacity is depicted with a question mark because that is also an important unknown. If MnSCU can ascertain this number, it will allow for more accurate estimates of future need for skillstraining capacity. EXHIBIT 2-4B CURRENT CAPACITY VS. PROJECTED COMPLETERS ? Maximum in Last Five Years Maximum Capacity Proj.Historic growth: 5% Proj. 2% New Hires Proj. 10% New Hires Proj 15% New Hires MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-6

24 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates All of these supply projections assume: There is enough student interest to generate a 5% annual growth rate. Although the Minnesota Office of Higher Education projects that high school graduates in Minnesota will peak in 2009 and steadily decline to 2015, our interviews with training coordinators suggested that interest is expected to grow in part because of interest from adults who are changing careers. 1 Data from the POST Board adds some support to this observation: 43% of individuals taking the licensing exam in 2006 were age 26 or older. There will be enough capacity to keep up with student interest. Anecdotal evidence provided during the interviews with training coordinators suggests there is enough capacity to keep up with future demand. This topic is addressed in more detail in chapter 4. In Section 2.7, we compare these projections to the projected demand derived in the Section Employer and Academic Community Assessment of Current and Future Need for PPOE Graduates Current Need Generally, employers and training coordinators agreed that there was an adequate supply of PPOE graduates to meet employer demand, though some expressed concern that not enough graduates were passing background checks necessary for law enforcement employment. More specifically: Employers indicated that there was currently an adequate supply of graduates to meet their demands. However, some larger employers (employing over 50 peace officers in 2006) raised the concern that there were not enough candidates passing background checks. Approximately half of the 10 larger employers raised this concern. Some employers observe that the pool of candidates passing such screenings has declined over the years. Only a few note that they have difficulty filling positions as a result. Also, a few employers noted that there was a shortage of minority candidates. The majority of training coordinators and instructors interviewed also indicated that there was currently an adequate supply of graduates to meet employer needs. Similarly, about one-third of the respondents mentioned that employers were concerned that not enough graduates were passing background checks. 1 Minnesota Office of Higher Education, Actual and projected public and private high school graduates by state planning region, Access at: D83A_ A=bdcf9a c6 MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-7

25 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates Future Need To assess the future need for PPOE graduates, respondents were asked about the future growth in job openings in law enforcement. The majority of employer respondents (62%) agreed that a 3 percent annual growth in job openings for the next five years was on target. 2 One-third of employers expected the annual growth rate to exceed 3 percent. These employers tended to be: From the Metro or Central region. 3 Larger employers. This regional variation will be used to guide the occupational projection estimates later in this chapter. Reasons employers gave for accelerated hiring included increased retirements and the likelihood of additional government funds for hiring. As depicted in Exhibit 2-5, training coordinators expressed more mixed opinions. Approximately 46 percent indicated that they expected the annual growth rate to exceed 3 percent. Another 23 percent indicated that 3 percent was on target, and 30 percent indicated that it was too high or that they did not feel comfortable making an estimate. EXHIBIT 2-5 RESPONDENT EXPECTATION FOR A 3% ANNUAL GROWTH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT JOB OPENINGS 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% On Target, 62% Exceed, 46% Exceed, 33% On Target, 23% DK, 15% Below, 15% Below, 5% DK, 0% Employers (n=21) Training Coordinators (n=13) Source: MGT interviews, June/July Employers were asked to assess the 3 percent estimate, which was obtained from statewide occupational projections for the period The Metro region consists of Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington counties. The Central region consists of Benton, Cass, Chisago, Crow Wing, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Pine, Sherburne, Stearns, Todd, Wadena, and Wright counties. These regions are used for state occupational projections. MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-8

26 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates Employers were also asked to estimate the future growth in job openings at their agency. Among the 10 large employers (employing more than 50 peace officers) interviewed, the expected annual openings ranged from 1.5 to 75 (Exhibit 2-6). If we convert this range to openings as portion of current licensed officers, then the range is 3 percent to 16 percent and the weighted average is 8 percent. This is not a rate of growth but rather a ratio of expected annual new hires to current officers in Most of the 11 small employers (employing less than 50 peace officers) interviewed planned to hire between one officer in the fiveyear period and two officers per year. Statewide in 2006, 47 percent of all peace officers were employed at agencies with 50 officers or less. And agencies with 50 or fewer officers constitute 91 percent of all agencies that employ peace officers in Minnesota. EXHIBIT 2-6 EMPLOYER RESPONDENT PLANNED HIRING AND STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS, BY SIZE Respondents Range of Expected Annual Openings Statewide Portion of Peace Officers (2006) Statewide Portion of Agencies (2006) Small Employers (Less Than 50 Peace Officers) <1 to 2 (n=11 resp.) 47% (4,877/10,276) Large Employers (50 or More Peace Officers) 1.5 to 75 (n=10 resp.) 53% (5,399/10,276) 91% (420/460) 9% (40/460) Source: MGT interviews, June/July 2007; POST Board, July Population Projections Population projections are one indicator of expected demand for new peace officers. As population grows, more peace officers will be needed in the community. According to the State Demographic Center, Minnesota s population is projected to grow by 10 percent between 2005 and That amounts to an annual growth rate of 1 percent per year. As shown in Exhibit 2-7, the rate of growth is projected to be highest (25%) in the Central region. This is consistent with the trends that surfaced during interviews with employers. A similar trend is evident for the period (Exhibit 2-8). MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-9

27 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates EXHIBIT 2-7 MINNESOTA POPULATION PROJECTIONS Region 2005 Estimate 2015 Projection % Change Annualized % Change Minnesota 5,192,122 5,709,450 10% 1% Metro Region 2,780,599 3,028, % 1% Central 698, , % 3% Southeast 485, , % 1% Northeast 325, , % 0.3% South West 286, , % 0.0% South Central 227, , % 0.4% West Central 218, , % 1% North Central 80,572 88, % 1% North West 88,226 90, % 0.2% Note: The regions used are those used in the occupational projections. Source: State Demographic Center, EXHIBIT 2-8 MINNESOTA POPULATION PROJECTIONS Region 2005 Estimate 2025 Projection % Change Annualized % Change Minnesota 5,192,122 6,134,430 18% 1% Metro Region 2,780,599 3,214, % 1% Central 698,994 1,017, % 2% Southeast 485, , % 1% Northeast 325, , % 0.3% South West 286, , % 0.1% South Central 227, , % 0.4% West Central 218, , % 1% North Central 80,572 95, % 1% North West 88,226 93, % 0.3% Note: The regions used are those used in the occupational projections. Source: State Demographic Center, Occupational Projections and Estimated Job Openings Another indicator of expected demand is occupational projections. We examined projections for the occupations most closely related to common entry-level positions identified through our interviews: Police and sheriff s patrol officers Detectives and criminal investigators Correctional officers and jailers First-line supervisors/managers of police and detectives These occupation titles are standardized titles (standard occupational classification) developed by the federal government that allow for uniformity across national, regional, and state projections. These projections and data on the current number of licensed peace officers in Minnesota serve as the foundation for our estimated demand for job openings, which we calculated using the following method: MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-10

28 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates First, we aggregated the projections for the identified occupations within each region and for the state. For instance, in the Metro region, 240 vacancies are expected for each year between 2007 and 2012 (Exhibit 2-9). Second, we adjusted the annual vacancies based on employer input. As noted earlier, employers in the Metro and Central regions indicated their annual growth for the five-year period would exceed 3 percent. Next, to obtain a second estimate of annual vacancies, we estimated the growth in the number of licensed peace officers in Minnesota using historical data on newly licensed officers and employer input (Exhibit 2-11). We also estimated the number of projected job openings in neighboring states that would likely be filled by PPOE graduates. In Section 2.6, the previously projected job openings are compared to the projected PPOE graduation trends. There are 552 expected annual vacancies across Minnesota in police occupations (Exhibit 2-9). After adjusting the demand for regional variations, identified through employer interviews, the total increases to 624. The adjustment factor applied to the Metro area is the product of the current number of police and sheriff s patrol officers (3,613 from occupation-level estimates) and the weighted average of the expected hiring reported by Metro area employers during the interview (8%). The same methodology was applied to the Central region to yield 10 percent. A demand adjustment was not applied to other areas because the interview data did not indicate stronger than average demand. We applied the adjustment to police and sheriff s patrol officers because the 8% estimate was obtained from employers that primarily employ new hires in these occupations. We used a broader set of occupations for the general analysis because PPOE graduates sometimes enter other law enforcement occupations. MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-11

29 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates EXHIBIT 2-9 PROJECTED VACANCIES IN POLICE OCCUPATIONS FOR MINNESOTA , BY REGION Current and Projected Employment Levels in Police Total and Annual Vacancies Demand Adjustment Based on Employer Input Demand For Officers Adj. Annual Vacancies Change Replacements over 5 years Total Annual Minnesota 15,941 16, ,966 2, na 624 Metro Region 7,701 7, , %*3, Central 2,057 2, %*1, Southeast 1,629 1, Northeast 1,470 1, South West 1,016 1, South Central West Central North Central North West *Includes the following occupations: First-line supervisors/managers of police and detectives ( ), correctional officers and jailers ( ), detectives and criminal investigators ( ), police and sheriff s patrol officers ( ). Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc., Demand factor estimates drawn from MGT Interviews with employers in the state. Our second estimate of job openings was based on the number of newly licensed officers hired each year between 2000 and 2006 (Exhibit 2-10). To obtain a peace officer license in Minnesota, one must meet the educational prerequisites, pass the licensing exam, and be employed at a law enforcement agency. The POST Board collects information on the number of new licenses each year, which serves as a proxy for the number of job openings being filled by new entrants to the Minnesota peace officer workforce. The year-to-year growth rate in new licenses fluctuated widely between 2000 and The rates fell from 2001 to 2003 because the federal funding from President s Clinton Community Policing program was reduced. Beginning in 2004, hiring began increasing significantly. For the full period, the average annual growth rate was 2 percent. For the three most recent years, the average rate was 15 percent. EXHIBIT 2-10 HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES FOR NEWLY HIRED LICENSED OFFICERS, Newly Licensed Officers % # Change na % % % % % % Average % Average % Source: Minnesota POST Board, MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-12

30 Supply and Demand for Program Graduates We used these historical growth rates to project future job openings. The lower line in Exhibit 2-11 projects annual new hires assuming a 2 percent growth rate (the average for the pervious 6 years). This is near the 3% rate confirmed by the majority of employers. However, because of the wide fluctuations, we have also provided a second projection assuming the average growth rate for the three most recent years (15%). Finally, we assumed a 10 percent growth rate based on employer input about expected future hiring. 4 The range of projected new hires for 2012 is 641 to 1,116. The lower bound of the estimate is very close to the estimate (624) derived in Exhibit 2-9. Given the high level of uncertainty associated with these projections, we suggest caution when relying on any one estimate. EXHIBIT 2-11 MINNESOTA LICENSED PEACE OFFICER PROJECTED NEW HIRES Number % Projected Growth, % proj. growth % Projected Growth Year Source: Minnesota POST Board, While the previous two indicators estimate future job openings in Minnesota, Exhibit 2-12 provides estimates of job openings in the region. We assumed 9 percent of the openings could be filled by recent PPOE graduates. This estimate is a combination of the U.S. Census estimated 2 percent of Minnesota residents working in neighboring states and 7 percent of residents leaving the state between 1995 and This was the best proxy readily available to estimate the portion of jobs in neighboring states that were filled by graduates from Minnesota. Factoring in regional job openings would add a total of 95 annual openings to the previous two estimates. In Section 2.6, we compare the projected openings generated in this section to the projected number of recent graduates discussed in the next section. 4 We derived the 10% by computing the average of expected hiring among large (employing more than 50 licensed officers) employer respondents. For example, if an agency indicated it would hire 5 officers per year over the next five years and they currently employ 50 licensed officers, then its hiring rate was 10%. This estimate is not based on examining year-to-year changes, but rather assumes that the snap shot hiring rate reported will continue for the next five years. MGT of America, Inc. Page 2-13