Local Climate Changes: present and future

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Elmer Townsend
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1 Local Climate Changes: present and future Rodica Rodica Tomozeiu Tomozeiu Lucio Lucio Botarelli Botarelli

2 Global climate changes Increase Increase of of the the global global temperature temperature is is more more significant significant from from the the 90 s 90 s Decreasing of of precipitation in in Europe Europe

more significant significant from from the the 90 s

Observed climate variability Anomalia Tmed

temperature (vs (vs 1961-1990) 1965 1970

3 Observed climate variability Anomalia Tmed Anomalia di temperatura media annuale 1960 Anomaly of of the the yearly mean temperature (vs (vs ) T_globale T_Italia T_Bologna

5 Anomalia di temperatura media annuale 1960 Anomaly of of the

4 Observed climate variability Yearly Yearly precipitation (deviation from from the the avarage ) E-R E-R regional mean mean Trend= -16mm/10 years Trend= -16mm/10 years

avarage 1961-1990) E-R E-R regional mean

5 Observed climate variability Yearly Yearly climatic climatic water water balance balance (E-R (E-R region) region)

Observed climate variability Anomaly of of

C/10 years years (from (from 1986 1986 always

6 Observed climate variability Anomaly of of summer Tmax Tmax (JJA) (JJA) E-R E-R regional mean mean strongest strongest signal signal during during summer summer Increase of of 0,5 C/10 years years (from (from always always over over mean mean climate climate reference value) value)

during summer summer Increase of of 0,5 C/10 years years (from (from

Observed climate variability 40 Heat Heat waves waves (>35

7 Observed climate variability 40 Heat Heat waves waves (>35 C) summer vs vs summer Temperatura (regional massima S. P. Capofiume (pianura BO) central central plan) plan) Tmax clima giugno Tmax clima luglio Tmax clima agosto C Tmax2012 Tmax /06/12 06/06/12 11/06/12 16/06/12 21/06/12 26/06/12 01/07/12 06/07/12 11/07/12 16/07/12 21/07/12 26/07/12 31/07/12 05/08/12 10/08/12 15/08/12 20/08/12 25/08/12 30/08/12 giorni

5 Tmax clima giugno Tmax clima luglio Tmax clima agosto C 30 27.5 25 22.

8 Observed climate variability frequency of of rainy rainy days days during during spring-summer (regional central central plan) plan) Moving Moving avarage avarage on on 5 5 years years 2012 Progressive Progressive decrease decrease of of the the number number of of rainy rainy days days since since late late 90s 90s

avarage avarage on on 5 5 years years 2012 Progressive Progressive decrease

9 Observed climate variability Consecutive dry dry days, days, summer Consecutive dry dry days, days, summer

10 Observed climate variability Summer climatic water balance 2012 vs vs 2003

11 Observed climate variability Soil humidity

12 Observed climate variability Relative humidity (%, (%, year) year) summer trend Mann-Kendall test test significant decreasing in in air air relative humidity

13 NDVI Observed climate variability

Observed climate variability Local Climate

variable for the creation of maps of the

14 Observed climate variability Local Climate Impact Profile Data collected in the urban area of Bologna showed that the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) can be a good variable for the creation of maps of the distribution of the tiger mosquito especially in the month of August.

Difference Vegetation Index) can be a good variable for the creation of

spring) Longer growing season (limited by by

15 Observed climate variability Extending seasonal (warmer autumns) Advance in in seasonality (early spring) Longer growing season (limited by by water availability) Warm winters ( , )

Observed climate variability in in Bologna

variability of frost days- bologna Decrease

during winter winter Increase Increase of of

the the consecutive consecutive dry dry days

of days 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965

Years Consecutive Consecutive dry dry days days

temporale del numero massimo di di giorni

estiva, Bologna (periodo 1951-2011) gmax.

calore (HWD) estive e il valore climatico di

Heat waves waves 10 10 0 1951 1956 1961 1966

16 Observed climate variability in in Bologna Frost Frost days days Winter temporal variability of frost days- bologna Decrease Decrease of of frost frost days days during during winter winter Increase Increase of of heat heat waves waves Increase Increase of of the the consecutive consecutive dry dry days days No.of days Years Consecutive Consecutive dry dry days days giorni Andamento temporale del numero massimo di di giorni consecutivi senza precipitazione-stagione estiva, Bologna (periodo ) gmax.giorni consecutivi Ondate di calore (HWD) estive e il valore climatico di riferimento(linea tratteggiata) a Bologna Heat Heat waves waves anni anni HWD clima_hwd

of days 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years Consecutive Consecutive dry dry days days giorni 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 Andamento temporale

Winter (DGF) 0.4 * 1 0.4 * 7 Primavera(MAM) 0.3 * 10 0.

17 Observed climate variability in in Bologna Season Trend ( C/decade) Tmin Climate ( 61-90) Tmin Trend ( C/decade) Tmax Climate ( 61-90) Tmax Winter (DGF) 0.4 * * 7 Primavera(MAM) 0.3 * * 18 Estate(GLA) 0.3 * * 29 Autunno(SON) 0.2 * * 19 Annua 0.3 * * 18

18 the future climate: climate projections Tools: v Global Climate Models (GCM); v Regional Climate models(rcm) v Statistical Models (DS)

based on the statistical relationship between local climate variables and large

19 from CGCMs to to RCMs and and SDs SDs Regional Climate Models (RCM) or Dynamical Downscaling (DD): nested into the global model Statistical Downscaling (SD): based on the statistical relationship between local climate variables and large scale atmospheric variables. Developed by Developed by ARPA-SIMC ARPA-SIMC RCM AOGCM

20 Climate projection from global to to local Global Continental National Regional Local

21 Emission scenarios

22 Uncertainty: how to to manage it it? a) GLOBAL EMISSION SCENARIO b) GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS Solution? c) STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS d) IMPACT MODELS CCAReg applied to to the the GCMs Ensemble Mean (EM)

23 Climate projections of of winter (DJF) Tmin and Tmax in in Northern Italy DJF Tmin DJF Tmax

24 Tmin other seasons Tmax Note: warming in in all all seasons with with mean values up up to to 1.8 C (summer) significant shits in in the the tails tails of of the the distributions

25 Spatial patterns of of projected changes EM and , A1B DTmin_DJF ( C) DTmax_JJA( C) DTmin_DJF( C) DTmax_JJA ( C)

26 Projected changes of of seasonal number of of frost frost days days and and ice ice days, days, and and What about cold extremes in in Emilia-Romagna? Projected changes of of seasonal frost frost days days (EM) (EM) and and Ice Ice days days and and

Conclusions significant increases are projected to occur in minimum and maximum temperature over

The Ensemble Mean computed using all runs (8 runs for each season) projects for each season, a

5-2 C over N-Italy; the magnitude of changes is greater to the end of the century, namely for the

all the stations) during winter, spring and autumn; the peak of changes is projected to occur during

27 Conclusions significant increases are projected to occur in minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy in all seasons, during the period The Ensemble Mean computed using all runs (8 runs for each season) projects for each season, a change in the mean of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperature around C over N-Italy; the magnitude of changes is greater to the end of the century, namely for the period , when the mean of the distributions of EM showed an increase around 3 C (mean over all the stations) during winter, spring and autumn; the peak of changes is projected to occur during summer season, for both minimum and maximum temperature, with an increase in the mean around 4 C (mean over the stations from N-Italy), with respect to present climate ;

28 Conclusions the warming is projected to be more intense in the Po Valley, especially to the end of the century; the lower and upper tail of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to shift to warmer values, with increases up to 2 C in lower and up to 6 C; a significant decrease of the seasonal number of frost days and winter ice days is projected to occur over Emilia-Romagna, more intense to the end of the century ( for example during spring could disappear).

29 Thanks for for your kind attention

REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING

REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING Regional Climate Modelling at the Hungarian Meteorological Service ANDRÁS HORÁNYI (horanyi( horanyi.a@.a@met.hu) Special thanks: : Gabriella Csima,, Péter Szabó, Gabriella