Current climate change scenarios and risks of extreme events for Northern Europe
|
|
- Cody Davis
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Current climate change scenarios and risks of extreme events for Northern Europe Kirsti Jylhä Climate Research Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) Network of Climate Change Risks on Forests (FoRisk) SNS Workshop, October 26-28, 29, Tvärminne, Finland
2 FMI: a research and service agency under the Ministry of Transport and Communications Produces high-quality observational data and research knowledge about the past, present and future state of the atmosphere 171 years old: the predecessor of FMI, the Magnetic Observatory of the University of Helsinki, was founded in Marine research Helsinki, Tampere, Kuopio, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
3 Climate change research unit Climate Research and Applications Socio-economic Impacts of Climate and Weather Greenhouse Gases Fig. Annalea Lohila Aerosols and Climate 5.1. The average date for permanent snow cover in Modelling and Observation of the Atmosphere ~ 55 person years, head prof. Ari Laaksonen Measurements of greenhouse gases and aerosols
4 Daily mean temperature in 22 Sep 21 Oct 29 Helsinki 25 Oct 29 Oulu Number of days with mean temp < ºC Thermal winter September-October th percentile in th percentile in (=median) 2.5th percentile in Thermal autumn
5 Outline Some terminology Uncertainties in climate projections Current climate change scenarios Risks of extreme events Summary
6 Some terminology (1/3) Climate prediction or climate forecast an attempt to produce the most probable estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, e.g., at seasonal, inter-annual or long-term time scales. Climate scenarios or projections descriptions of alternative possible, plausible, internally consistent, but not necessarily equally probable futures. conditional predictions, i.e., conditional on the assumptions made about the future evolution of greenhouse gases and aerosols. help to answer if... then questions Climate change scenario: the difference between a climate scenario and the current climate.
7 Some terminology (2/3) Probabilistic climate scenarios or projections Due to several sources of uncertainty, the prediction of both natural climate variability and the human impact on climate is inherently probabilistic. An ensemble of climate-model simulations: consists of many simulations, performed either by the same model but different initial conditions or by several different models. Probability density (1/ºC) Annual Winter Summer Temperature change (ºC) The probability that T > 3ºC in winter, is proportional to the size of the blue area.
8 Some terminology (3/3) Percentiles The 95th (5th) percentile: a value equal to or below which 95% (5%) of all cases fall. The best estimate The 5th percentile (median), or An ensemble / multi-model mean Probability density (1/ºC) Annual Winter Summer Temperature change (ºC) The probability that T ºC in summer, is proportional to the size of the red area.
9 Why is it not possible to construct accurate predictions of the magnitude of climate change? Inherent sources of uncertainty - future emissions - model formulation - natural climate variability Figures: energyconcepts.tripod.com,
10 Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols depend on the future actions of the mankind: changes in population, energy use, energy sources, land use Total emissions (PgC/yr) SRES emission scenarios for CO 2 Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 A2 A2 A1B B1 B2 Observed Series5 Series2 Series6 Observed Series1 Concentrations (ppm) A2 A1B B2 Observed A2 A1B B1 Series Past and current emissions of CO 2 contribute to future concentrations
11 Progress in the model simulation of the climate system but uncertainties remain /5 29/11? Time Evolution of climate models A computer cluster Some interactions in the climate system may not have been discovered yet Climate models cannot completely simulate all the processes we currently know (e.g., cloud feedback processes).
12 Regional climate projections are more uncertain than global projections Natural climate variability is likely to accelerate changes in climate during some periods, and retard changes during other periods, but these natural fluctuations cannot be predicted. Projected regional signals tend to differ from model to model. Multi-model means for past climate periods generally compare with observations better than single model simulations The approach: to use ensembles of - different models and - different downscaling techniques (e.g. regional climate models) to estimate the possible regional climate change signal.
13 Uncertainties in climate change schematically Observed climate Future climate Natural variability Models Emission scenarios LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 2 21 Near future End of the century Natural climate variability + + Climate model sensitivity (+) ++ Emission scenarios ++ Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
14 Current climate change scenarios
15 Warming in Finland by ~.4.1 C/1 yr during the next three decades Change in temperature (ºC) Annual mean temperature => Scenario Change (ºC) A2 5.1 (3.1 7.) A1B 4.4 ( ) B1 3.2 ( ) Multi-model mean (19 GCMs) and the 9% uncertainty range The rate of warming deviates little between the different emission scenarios up to by the 24s. The warming by the end of the century would be about one third smaller in the B1 scenario compared to the A2 scenario. (Gt C/year) Emissions
16 Probabilistic forecasts of temperature change in southern Finland ( ) Accounts for natural variability and differences between climate models Probability density (1/ºC) Annual Winter Summer Temperature change (ºC) Winter Summer Annual Best estimate (ºC) % uncertainty range (ºC) Probability of warming (%) 9% 9% 96% Width of the distribution primarily determined by natural temperature variability: larger in winter than in summer. Ref: Räisänen and Ruokolainen (27)
17 Largest warming in winter, smallest in summer 6 Finland => Change in temperature (ºC) Month The best estimate and the 9% uncertainty range, assuming the A1B emissions Differences in climate model formulation (19 GCMs) Internal climate variability (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
18 Largest warming in northeastern Finland Annual mean temperature change (ºC) => (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B Wintertime changes in the north exceed those in the south Summertime changes are rather uniform across the country.
19 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees.
20 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
21 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
22 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
23 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
24 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
25 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
26 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
27 Annual mean temperature in Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees. (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B
28 Temperatures in central Lapland by the end of the century ~ those in present-day southern Finland A1B Larger emissions => even larger changes
29 Increases in precipitation in Finland in winter by 1 4%, and in summer by 2%, by the 28s Larger precipitation amounts in summer than in winter also in the future DJF => JJA Unit: % A1B
30 Shorter winter season, slightly longer spring season DJF => MAM Change in days Typically no winter season at all to the west of the black curve 19 model mean estimate (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B Ref: ACCLIM project (FMI)
31 Longer summer season, and autumn in SW Finland JJA => SON 4 Change in days (Gt C/year) Emissions A1B 19 model mean estimate Ref: ACCLIM project (FMI)
32 Largest decreases in snow cover in SW Finland Annual mean and max snow water equivalent # of snow cover days -5% -6% -3% -4% -2% -7% -5% -3% -8% -6% -5% -4% Multi-model mean changes (in %) => , SRES A2 Ref: Jylhä et al. (29)
33 Risks of extreme events
34 Very low temperatures will become rarer Hot spells will become more common The highest temperatures will be even higher.
35 Hot summer days* in Finland Observed in Scenario for Turku Joensuu Ivalo *Daily mean temperature > 2ºC Maximum 95% 75% 5% 25% 5% Turku Joensuu Ivalo Ref: ACCLIM project (FMI)
36 More frequent freezing point days* in Dec-Feb (less on annual basis) SON DJF MAM *Tmin < ºC, Tmax > ºC Change (in days) => Ref: Jylhä et al. (28) A2
37 Number of days with precipitation ( 1mm/day) in summer Change (in %) => Two sets of regional climate model simulations (driven by different global models) Disagreement in N Finland, maybe less days with rain in S Finland In winter: the frequency of wet days will increase Ref: Jylhä et al. (29)
38 Longest period without rain in summer Change in length (in %) => Two sets of regional climate model simulations (driven by different global models) Disagreement among model simulations in Finland In winter: decreases in the duration of dry spells Ref: Jylhä et al. (29)
39 Mid-latitude cyclone track density (ERA4) All systems Change by the end of the century Systems per winter (ONDJFM) Blue: decrease Red: increase A largely reduced total number of cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere Leckebusch et al. (28)
40 Mid-latitude cyclones and storms All systems Blue: decrease Red: increase Extreme systems Systems per winter (ONDJFM) An increasing number of extreme cyclones over the Northeast-Atlantic and the British Isles (Gt C/year) Emissions Leckebusch et al. (28)
41 35 Exceptionally strong geostrophic wind* in western Finland 99th, 95th ja 9th percentiles Observations in climate models in Wind speed (m/s) Tuulen nopeus (ms -1 ) % 95 % 9 % LK1v99% LK1v95% LK1v9% 99%C41 95%C41 9%C41 99%METNO 95%METNO 9%METNO 99%CNRM 95%CNRM 9%CNRM 99%KNMI 95%KNMI 9%KNMI 99%MPI 95%MPI 9%MPI LK99mal LK95mal LK9mal Vuosi * Actual wind speed at 1 m is about half of that % 95% 9% Ref: Elina Suvilampi
42 Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols depend on the future actions of the mankind Progress in the model simulation of the climate system but uncertainties remain Internal climate variability Summary (1/3) There are inherent uncertainties involved in climate change projections LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY Near future End of the century Natural climate variability + + Climate model sensitivity (+) ++ Emission scenarios ++
43 Summary (2/3) It is likely that we will never be able to make predictions that are detailed enough and certain enough to make a 'predict and adapt approach to adaptation a viable option. It is important to look at the range of projections from different models rather than just relying on one outcome chosen from many possibilities.
44 Summary (3/3) The probability that in Finland the next full decade (211 22) will be warmer than the baseline period appears to exceed 95%. By the end of this century, the annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 2 6ºC. In winter by 3-9ºC and in summer by 1-5ºC. During the next few decades, changes in precipitation will still be affected more strongly by natural variability than by increasing GHGs conc. By the end of this century, precipitation amounts will increase by 5-25%. In winter by 1-4% and in summer by -2%. Thermal summer and thermal growing season will lengthen by months. Hot summer days and hot spells become more common Decreases in max/mean snow water equivalent and # of snow cover days largest in SW Finland. More frequent freezing point days in Dec-Feb. Possibly less days with rain in summer in southern Finland Minor changes in windiness
45 Effects of a changing climate and hydrology on renewable energy* risks and opportunities for renewable energy* caused by climate change * incl. bioenergy Oslo, Norway, 31 May - 2 June 21 Nordic and Baltic conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy Impacts, Risks and Adaptation
46 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Jylhä, K., Ruosteenoja, K., Räisänen, J., Venäläinen, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Ruokolainen, L., Saku, S. and Seitola, T., 29: The changing climate in Finland: estimates for adaptation studies. ACCLIM project report 29. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Reports 29:4, 12 s. (In Finnish, abstract, extended abstract and captions for figures and tables also in English)
South Africa. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles South Africa A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate
More informationFinnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki 2. University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu
Storm risks on forestry in Finland - occurrence and risk management Ari Venäläinen 1, Hilppa Gregow 1, Heli Peltola 2, Veli-Pekka Ikonen 2 and Seppo Kellomäki 2 1 Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O.
More informationSelecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS
Selecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS Isn t one model enough? Carol McSweeney and Richard Jones Met Office Hadley Centre, September 2010 Downscaling a single GCM
More informationClimate, water and renewable energy in the Nordic countries
102 Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change Hydroclimatic Variability (Proceedings of symposium S6 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS
More informationClimate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons
Climate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons Kenneth Kunkel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites North Carolina State University and National Climatic Data Center h#p://assessment.globalchange.gov
More informationSea level scenarios and extreme weather events
Extreme weather and nuclear power plants (EXWE) Sea level scenarios and extreme weather events Milla Johansson, Kimmo Kahma, Hilkka Pellikka, Hanna Tietäväinen, Seppo Saku and Kirsti Jylhä Finnish Meteorological
More informationData Sets of Climate Science
The 5 Most Important Data Sets of Climate Science Photo: S. Rahmstorf This presentation was prepared on the occasion of the Arctic Expedition for Climate Action, July 2008. Author: Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor
More informationA simple scaling approach to produce climate scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands
Supplementary Material to A simple scaling approach to produce climate scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands G. Lenderink and J. Attema Extreme precipitation during 26/27 th August
More informationREGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING
REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING Regional Climate Modelling at the Hungarian Meteorological Service ANDRÁS HORÁNYI (horanyi( horanyi.a@.a@met.hu) Special thanks: : Gabriella Csima,, Péter Szabó, Gabriella
More informationClimate change and heating/cooling degree days in Freiburg
339 Climate change and heating/cooling degree days in Freiburg Finn Thomsen, Andreas Matzatrakis Meteorological Institute, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, Germany Abstract The discussion of climate
More informationLocal Climate Changes: present and future
Local Climate Changes: present and future Rodica Rodica Tomozeiu Tomozeiu Lucio Lucio Botarelli Botarelli www.arpa.emr.it www.arpa.emr.it Global climate changes Increase Increase of of the the global global
More informationClimate Change Scenarios for the Prairies
Climate Change Scenarios for the Prairies David Sauchyn and Suzan Lapp Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, 150-10 Research Drive, Regina, SK S4S 7J7; Email: sauchyn@uregina.ca
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2011
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2011 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
More informationProjecting climate change in Australia s marine environment Kathleen McInnes
Projecting climate change in Australia s marine environment Kathleen McInnes CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship Centre for Australian Climate and Weather Research Framing of the problem IMPACTS EMISSIONS
More informationKNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands
WR 2006-01: KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands 1 KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands KNMI Scientific Report WR 2006-01 Bart van den Hurk, Albert Klein Tank, Geert
More information7.10 INCORPORATING HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AT FOLSOM LAKE, CALIFORNIA
7.10 INCORPORATING HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AT FOLSOM LAKE, CALIFORNIA Theresa M. Carpenter 1, Konstantine P. Georgakakos 1,2, Nicholas E. Graham 1,2, Aris P. Georgakakos 3,4,
More informationFuture Climate of the European Alps
Chapter 3 Future Climate of the European Alps Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Ernst Gebetsroither, Johann Züger, Dirk Schmatz and Achilleas Psomas Additional information is available at the end of the chapter http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/56278
More informationList 10 different words to describe the weather in the box, below.
Weather and Climate Lesson 1 Web Quest: What is the Weather? List 10 different words to describe the weather in the box, below. How do we measure the weather? Use this web link to help you: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/weatherwise/activities/weatherstation/
More informationQueensland rainfall past, present and future
Queensland rainfall past, present and future Historically, Queensland has had a variable climate, and recent weather has reminded us of that fact. After experiencing the longest drought in recorded history,
More informationSocio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan Executive Summary
Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan Executive Summary CNTR- 08 8507 DFID CNTR 08 8507 Executive Summary Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan A Report to the Department
More informationPresent trends and climate change projections for the Mediterranean region
Present trends and climate change projections for the Mediterranean region Prof. Piero Lionello, piero.lionello@unile.it Science of Materials Department, University of Salento, Italy Plan of the talk:
More informationAtmospheric Processes
Atmospheric Processes Steven Sherwood Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Where do atmospheric processes come into AR5 WGI? 1. The main feedbacks that control equilibrium
More informationHow To Predict Climate Change In Tonga
Niuatoputapu Niuafo'ou Late Island Vava u Group South Pacific Ocean Tofua Island Kotu Group Nomuka Group Ha apai Group NUKU ALOFA Eua Island Tongatapu Group Current and future climate of Tonga > Tonga
More informationAppendix A: Primary Impacts of Climate Change in the Chicago Region
233 South Wacker Drive, Suite 800 Chicago, IL 60606 312 454 0400 info@cmap.illinois.gov www.cmap.illinois.gov Appendix A: Primary Impacts of Climate Change in the Chicago Region June 2013 FY1X-XXXX Appendix
More informationThe IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events 2 How do changes
More information5 day Training on Climate Change and Adaptation
Training Programme 5 day Training on and Adaptation Developed by: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) [A comprehensive training module along with guideline for trainers aiming to enhance capacity
More informationTemporal variation in snow cover over sea ice in Antarctica using AMSR-E data product
Temporal variation in snow cover over sea ice in Antarctica using AMSR-E data product Michael J. Lewis Ph.D. Student, Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of Texas at San Antonio ABSTRACT
More informationAdaptation Planning Scenarios in Western Australia
Annex 1: Projections for Change in Climate and Climate Scenarios Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Preparing for and responding to climate risks in the City of Stirling Table of Contents INTRODUCTION...
More informationFinnish Meteorological Institute s Services for Insurance Sector
Finnish Meteorological Institute s Services for Insurance Sector Regional training workshop Role of the NMHSs in support of DRR- related activities in the field of insurance Janne Miettinen, Account Manager,
More informationAtmospheric Dynamics of Venus and Earth. Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA 2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Atmospheric Dynamics of Venus and Earth G. Schubert 1 and C. Covey 2 1 Department of Earth and Space Sciences Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA 2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
More informationSeasonal Temperature Variations
Seasonal and Daily Temperatures Fig. 3-CO, p. 54 Seasonal Temperature Variations What causes the seasons What governs the seasons is the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground What two primary factors
More informationWEATHER AND CLIMATE practice test
WEATHER AND CLIMATE practice test Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. What role does runoff play in the water cycle? a. It is the process in
More informationRegionalizing global models:
Regionalizing global models: value-adding for impacts and adaptation Jason Evans University of New South Wales Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Regionalizing Global models Why would we want to regionalize
More informationWEATHER LIMITATIONS FOR WINTER AND SUMMER TOURISM IN EUROPE. K. Blazejczyk Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Science
Developments in Tourism Climatology A. Matzarakis, C. R. de Freitas, D. Scott, 27 WEATHER LIMITATIONS FOR WINTER AND SUMMER TOURISM IN EUROPE K. Blazejczyk Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization,
More informationCopernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
Vincent-Henri Peuch ECMWF, Head of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
More informationII. Related Activities
(1) Global Cloud Resolving Model Simulations toward Numerical Weather Forecasting in the Tropics (FY2005-2010) (2) Scale Interaction and Large-Scale Variation of the Ocean Circulation (FY2006-2011) (3)
More informationMonsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events
Monsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events M Rajeevan National Climate Centre India Meteorological Department Pune 411 005 rajeevan@imdpune.gov.in Outline of the presentation Monsoon rainfall Variability
More informationLecture 4: Pressure and Wind
Lecture 4: Pressure and Wind Pressure, Measurement, Distribution Forces Affect Wind Geostrophic Balance Winds in Upper Atmosphere Near-Surface Winds Hydrostatic Balance (why the sky isn t falling!) Thermal
More informationGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong
Diurnal and Semi-diurnal Variations of Rainfall in Southeast China Judy Huang and Johnny Chan Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong
More informationFundamentals of Climate Change (PCC 587): Water Vapor
Fundamentals of Climate Change (PCC 587): Water Vapor DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 2: 9/30/13 Water Water is a remarkable molecule Water vapor
More informationClimate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Helsinki Metropolitan Area. Susanna Kankaanpää HSY
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Susanna Kankaanpää HSY 12.5.2011 Contents of the presentation: 1. Helsinki Metropolitan Area and HSY 2. Context of the Adaptation Strategy
More informationClimate modelling. Dr. Heike Huebener Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology Hessian Centre on Climate Change
Hessisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie Climate modelling Dr. Heike Huebener Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology Hessian Centre on Climate Change Climate: Definition Weather: momentary state
More informationclimate science A SHORT GUIDE TO This is a short summary of a detailed discussion of climate change science.
A SHORT GUIDE TO climate science This is a short summary of a detailed discussion of climate change science. For more information and to view the full report, visit royalsociety.org/policy/climate-change
More informationHow To Assess The Vulnerability Of The Neman River To Climate Change
Management of the Neman River basin with account of adaptation to climate change Progress of the pilot project since February, 2011 Vladimir Korneev, Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water
More informationObserved Cloud Cover Trends and Global Climate Change. Joel Norris Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Observed Cloud Cover Trends and Global Climate Change Joel Norris Scripps Institution of Oceanography Increasing Global Temperature from www.giss.nasa.gov Increasing Greenhouse Gases from ess.geology.ufl.edu
More informationHow To Predict Climate Change
A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events the focus of Chapter 3 Presented by: David R. Easterling Chapter 3:Changes in Climate Extremes & their Impacts on the Natural Physical
More informationGeography affects climate.
KEY CONCEPT Climate is a long-term weather pattern. BEFORE, you learned The Sun s energy heats Earth s surface unevenly The atmosphere s temperature changes with altitude Oceans affect wind flow NOW, you
More informationHow does snow melt? Principles of snow melt. Energy balance. GEO4430 snow hydrology 21.03.2006. Energy flux onto a unit surface:
Principles of snow melt How does snow melt? We need energy to melt snow/ ice. GEO443 snow hydrology 21.3.26 E = m L h we s K = ρ h = w w we f E ρ L L f f Thomas V. Schuler t.v.schuler@geo.uio.no E energy
More informationFire Weather Index: from high resolution climatology to Climate Change impact study
Fire Weather Index: from high resolution climatology to Climate Change impact study International Conference on current knowledge of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Forestry in Europe COST-WMO
More informationDirk Nyland - Chief Engineer BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure NRCan - CCIAD Presentation 9 September 2014
Considerations for Addressing Climate Change Adaptation for Transportation Infrastructure in Highway Management, Design, Operation and Maintenance in British Columbia Dirk Nyland - Chief Engineer BC Ministry
More informationHow Do Oceans Affect Weather and Climate?
How Do Oceans Affect Weather and Climate? In Learning Set 2, you explored how water heats up more slowly than land and also cools off more slowly than land. Weather is caused by events in the atmosphere.
More informationThe Impact of Climate Change on the Renewable Energy Production in Norway
The Impact of Climate Change on the Renewable Energy Production in Norway 2013 International Energy Workshop Arne Lind, Eva Rosenberg, Pernille Seljom & Kari Espegren Institute for Energy Technology Flooding:
More informationATMS 310 Jet Streams
ATMS 310 Jet Streams Jet Streams A jet stream is an intense (30+ m/s in upper troposphere, 15+ m/s lower troposphere), narrow (width at least ½ order magnitude less than the length) horizontal current
More information2. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States.
1. Which weather instrument has most improved the accuracy of weather forecasts over the past 40 years? 1) thermometer 3) weather satellite 2) sling psychrometer 4) weather balloon 6. Wind velocity is
More informationFACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
FACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE 1. What is climate change? Climate change is a long-term shift in the climate of a specific location, region or planet. The shift is measured by changes in features associated
More informationClimate Ready Tools & Resources
August 2, 2013 Mission Statement To provide the water sector (drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater utilities) with the practical tools, training, and technical assistance needed to adapt to climate
More informationWhat Causes Climate? Use Target Reading Skills
Climate and Climate Change Name Date Class Climate and Climate Change Guided Reading and Study What Causes Climate? This section describes factors that determine climate, or the average weather conditions
More information6. Base your answer to the following question on the graph below, which shows the average monthly temperature of two cities A and B.
1. Which single factor generally has the greatest effect on the climate of an area on the Earth's surface? 1) the distance from the Equator 2) the extent of vegetative cover 3) the degrees of longitude
More informationWEATHER AND CLIMATE WHY DOES IT MATTER?
WEATHER AND CLIMATE Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms
More information6.4 Taigas and Tundras
6.4 Taigas and Tundras In this section, you will learn about the largest and coldest biomes on Earth. The taiga is the largest land biome and the tundra is the coldest. The taiga The largest land biome
More informationManaging Extreme Weather at Transport for London. ARCC Assembly - 12 June 2014 Helen Woolston, Transport for London Sustainability Coordinator
Managing Extreme Weather at Transport for London ARCC Assembly - 12 June 2014 Helen Woolston, Transport for London Sustainability Coordinator Slide list (wont show) Long Term Climate Change 1. What TfL
More informationClimate change and water (food) security
Climate change and water (food) security By Prof Tore Furevik (tore@gfi.uib.no) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University of Bergen @ToreFurevik BSRS on water, climate & society, 14 June 2016 Earth
More informationPotential Climate Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies. Chien Wang (MIT)
Potential Climate Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies Chien Wang (MIT) 1. A large-scale installation of windmills Desired Energy Output: supply 10% of the estimated world
More informationBaudouin Raoult, Iryna Rozum, Dick Dee
ECMWF contribution to the EU funded CHARME Project: A Significant Event Viewer tool Matthew Manoussakis Baudouin Raoult, Iryna Rozum, Dick Dee 5th Workshop on the use of GIS/OGC standards in meteorology
More informationClimate Change Impacts & Risk Management
Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management WA FACILITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE THE ENGINEER S ROLE Alan Carmody, Alberfield Energy, Environment, Risk www.alberfield.com.au Climate Change Risk Management Tools
More informationAdvisory Board report : towards the KNMI 13 scenarios
Advisory Board report : towards the KNMI 13 scenarios Climate change in the Netherlands De Bilt, 2012 KNMI-publication 230 Advisory Board report : towards the KNMI 13 scenarios Version 1.0 Date August
More informationStormwater quality and land use impacts
Stormwater quality and land use impacts Storm water expert meeting, 11th December 2014, Turku Marjo Valtanen Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki 17.12.2014 1 Stormwater quality
More informationClimate Change 2014 The recent conclusions of the IPCC. Lars Bärring Research scientist, SMHI Rossby Centre Swedish co-focal Point for IPCC
Climate Change 2014 The recent conclusions of the IPCC Lars Bärring Research scientist, SMHI Rossby Centre Swedish co-focal Point for IPCC IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Stockholm September 2013 1535
More informationEcosystem change and landsurface-cloud
Ecosystem change and landsurface-cloud coupling Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research, akbetts@aol.com Congress on Climate Change 8)Earth System Feedbacks and Carbon Sequestration Copenhagen, March 10, 2009
More informationPreliminary advances in Climate Risk Management in China Meteorological Administration
Preliminary advances in Climate Risk Management in China Meteorological Administration Gao Ge Guayaquil,Ecuador, Oct.2011 Contents China Framework of Climate Service Experience in Climate/disaster risk
More informationBridging the gap between climate science and development practice
Bridging the gap between climate science and development practice FIC/IEH Methodology for analyzing climate change impacts on productive systems and value chains Climate model simulations are essential
More informationIMPACT OF SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY-AMERENUE QUANTUM WEATHER PROJECT MESONET DATA ON WRF-ARW FORECASTS
IMPACT OF SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY-AMERENUE QUANTUM WEATHER PROJECT MESONET DATA ON WRF-ARW FORECASTS M. J. Mueller, R. W. Pasken, W. Dannevik, T. P. Eichler Saint Louis University Department of Earth and
More informationEstimating Future Costs of Alaska Public Infrastructure at Risk to Climate Change
Estimating Future Costs of Alaska Public Infrastructure at Risk to Climate Change Peter Larsen Senior Policy Advisor Climate Change & Energy plarsen@tnc.org November 2007 About The Nature Conservancy.
More informationIGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTRE
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTRE CLIMATE WATCH REF: ICPAC/CW/No.32 May 2016 EL NIÑO STATUS OVER EASTERN EQUATORIAL OCEAN REGION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE GREATER HORN OF FRICA DURING
More informationGraphing Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic and Antarctic
Graphing Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic and Antarctic Summary: Students graph sea ice extent (area) in both polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) over a three-year period to learn about seasonal variations
More informationTCC News 1 No. 33 Summer 2013
No. 33 Summer 2013 Contents Page Urban Heat Island Effect Enhancement caused by Hot Summer Conditions Summary of Kosa (Aeolian dust) Events over Japan in 2013 Sea Ice in the Sea of Okhotsk for the 2012/2013
More informationGreat Plains and Midwest Climate Outlook 19 March 2015
Great Plains and Midwest Climate Outlook 19 March 2015 Wendy Ryan Assistant State Climatologist Colorado State University wendy.ryan@colostate.edu Grass fire in SE Nebraska 13 March 2015 General Information
More informationEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15 following the increased probability of occurrence
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15 following the increased probability of occurrence EL NIÑO Definition and historical episodes El Niño
More informationCEQ Draft Guidance for GHG Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change Committee on Natural Resources 13 May 2015
CEQ Draft Guidance for GHG Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change Committee on Natural Resources 13 May 2015 Testimony of John R. Christy University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am John R. Christy,
More informationVENTILATIVE COOLING EBC ANNEX 62 PER HEISELBERG DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
VENTILATIVE COOLING EBC ANNEX 62 PER HEISELBERG DEFINITION OF VENTILATIVE COOLING VENTILATIVE COOLING IS APPLICATION (DISTRIBUTION IN TIME AND SPACE) OF VENTILATION AIR FLOW TO REDUCE COOLING LOADS IN
More informationHow to Generate Project Data For emission Rate Analysis
19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12 16 December 2011 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim2011 Providing application-specific climate projections datasets: CSIRO s Climate
More informationSCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE ROBUSTNESS ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING DESIGN ALTERNATIVES A DUTCH CASE STUDY
SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE ROBUSTNESS ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING DESIGN ALTERNATIVES A DUTCH CASE STUDY C.Struck 1 ; J.L.M. Hensen 2 1: Centre for Integrated Building Technology, Lucerne University of Applied
More informationTropical Cyclones and Climate Change. Nick Panico III MET 295-Spring 2011 Prof. Mandia
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Nick Panico III MET 295-Spring 2011 Prof. Mandia Each year hundreds of storm systems develop around the tropical regions surrounding the equator, and approximately
More informationProbabilistic forecast information optimised to end-users applications: three diverse examples
Probabilistic forecast information optimised to end-users applications: three diverse examples ECMWF User Seminar 2015 Vanessa Stauch, Renate Hagedorn, Isabel Alberts, Reik Schaab Our group Land Transport
More informationCan latent heat release have a negative effect on polar low intensity?
Can latent heat release have a negative effect on polar low intensity? Ivan Føre, Jon Egill Kristjansson, Erik W. Kolstad, Thomas J. Bracegirdle and Øyvind Sætra Polar lows: are intense mesoscale cyclones
More informationThe Balance of Power in the Earth-Sun System
NASA Facts National Aeronautics and Space Administration www.nasa.gov The Balance of Power in the Earth-Sun System The Sun is the major source of energy for Earth s oceans, atmosphere, land, and biosphere.
More informationClimate Change on the Prairie:
Climate Change on the Prairie: A Basic Guide to Climate Change in the High Plains Region - UPDATE Global Climate Change Why does the climate change? The Earth s climate has changed throughout history and
More information7613-1 - Page 1. Weather Unit Exam Pre-Test Questions
Weather Unit Exam Pre-Test Questions 7613-1 - Page 1 Name: 1) Equal quantities of water are placed in four uncovered containers with different shapes and left on a table at room temperature. From which
More informationATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast
ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 1: OCTOBER 1, 2015 Outline How exactly the Sun heats the Earth How strong? Important concept
More informationAdapting to climate change: Tourism and recreation
Adapting to climate change: Tourism and recreation Eija Pouta University of Helsinki Department of Forest Economics Marjo Neuvonen & Tuija Sievänen Finnish Forest Research Institute (METLA) Previous studies
More informationFinnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOH)
Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOH) FIOH Research and specialist organization in the field of occupational health and safety Independent institute under public law and operating in the administrative
More informationContinental and Marine Low-level Cloud Processes and Properties (ARM SGP and AZORES) Xiquan Dong University of North Dakota
Continental and Marine Low-level Cloud Processes and Properties (ARM SGP and AZORES) Xiquan Dong University of North Dakota Outline 1) Statistical results from SGP and AZORES 2) Challenge and Difficult
More informationJessica Blunden, Ph.D., Scientist, ERT Inc., Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director,, and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Jessica
More informationExtreme Events in the Atmosphere
Cover Extreme Events in the Atmosphere Basic concepts Academic year 2013-2014 ICTP Trieste - Italy Dario B. Giaiotti and Fulvio Stel 1 Outline of the lecture Definition of extreme weather event. It is
More informationCGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate
Name: Date: Day/Period: CGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate Chapter 12 in the Making Connections textbook deals with Climate Connections. Use pages 127-144 to fill
More informationChapter 3: Climate and Climate Change Answers
Chapter 3: Climate and Climate Change Answers Section A: Climate 1. (a) Explain what each of the following means: (4 x 1 mark) (i) climate the average weather of an area over a 25 30 year period (ii) maritime
More informationFinnish Marine Research Infrastructure FINMARI
Finnish Marine Research Infrastructure FINMARI Lauri Laakso, Finnish Meteorological Institute Timo Tamminen, Finnish Environment Institute Finnish Meteorological Institute 1. National roadmap for key research
More informationJames Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Ken Lo
If It s That Warm, How Come It s So Damned Cold? James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Ken Lo The past year, 2009, tied as the second warmest year in the 130 years of global instrumental temperature records,
More informationSECTION 3 Making Sense of the New Climate Change Scenarios
SECTION 3 Making Sense of the New Climate Change Scenarios The speed with which the climate will change and the total amount of change projected depend on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and the
More informationForecaster comments to the ORTECH Report
Forecaster comments to the ORTECH Report The Alberta Forecasting Pilot Project was truly a pioneering and landmark effort in the assessment of wind power production forecast performance in North America.
More information