Baring High Yield Bond Fund
|
|
- Erin Hopkins
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 PROFESSIONAL ADVISERS ONLY Baring High Yield Bond Fund Quarterly Investment Review Q Contents Summary Performance & Investment Strategy Market Review & Investment Outlook Scenarios Important Information
2 Summary Performance In USD Terms (%) - Periods To 30 September 2015 Values As At 30 September Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years s Portfolio Value Yield To Maturity Gross of OCF Yield To Maturity Net of OCF Underlying Yield Net of OCF Distribution Yield Net of OCF Modified Duration US$ million 7.2% 5.7% 3.5% 5.1% 3.6 years Portfolio Performance Comparison Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Inception: 19 July 1993 Source: Morningstar / Barings, performance figures are shown net of fees and charges on a NAV per unit basis (priced at midday) with gross income reinvested. Based on the A USD Income share class. Periods over 1 year are annualised. Performance Comparison: Morningstar Median of GIFS Global High Yield Bond (Customised). Performance And Asset Allocation Summary Fund performance was -6.1% over the quarter. The period under review was one of heightened market weakness across global high yield markets. Concerns over a China slowdown and implications for the wider economy, a delay in the US Federal Reserve's rate hike and oil price weakness all impacted investor sentiment negatively. US and Emerging market (EM) high yield were the weakest performing segments over the quarter both returning -5.0%. Russia was the one bright spot in EM with a return of +2.6%. Europe was the relative outperformer returning -2.2%. Generally, higher rated BB issuers were the best performing. Sector wise, Energy was the weakest returning -15.9% over the Quarter. We also saw noteworthy weakness in Basic Industry and Telecommunications sectors. (Merrill Lynch indices in US dollar hedged terms). There were no major changes to our investment strategy over the period. We continue to favour the US market over Europe following the strong outperformance of the European High Yield Market which has strongly benefitted from European Central Bank's quantitative easing policies. As at 30 September, the European market, although higher credit quality, yielded 5.7% compared to US (8.0%) and EM (10.2%). Although Emerging Market issuers have strongly outperformed the US this year, we continue to see value in these issuers which generally still offer higher spreads relative to US high yield, but with lower levels of debt and improving corporate governance. In terms of credit rating we retain single B rated bonds as our largest allocation. We acknowledge the risks from rising government bond yields over time. We remain constructive on the asset class given the prospect of a period of stable economic growth in the US and also the fact that the high yield market over time is less sensitive to changes in interest rates than other areas of fixed income. We believe global defaults rates are likely to remain at low levels, given active refinancing activity by corporates over the past couple of years and strong interest coverage levels. Our duration position remains defensive and we have allocated to sectors which will benefit from continued improving global economic conditions. Looking forward, China is likely to play a key role in future developments. The stress seen in the Chinese equity market has raised questions over how effective policy might be in ensuring a controlled slowdown, and therefore avoiding a hard landing. In advanced economies, we envisage that the US and UK economies will continue to grow moderately. Whilst in the Eurozone, the return of inflation into negative territory, combined with a high rate of unemployment is likely to encourage the ECB to increase its stimulus. Meanwhile, the Japanese economy risks falling back into recession, due to external factors (a slowdown in China) and weaker consumer spending. Market Review - Returns In USD Hedged Terms - Q High Yield Bond Indices Euro High Yield -2.2 ML Global HY - Major Sectors Real Estate Banking U.S. High Yield -4.9 Leisure -0.6 Global High Yield -4.5 Healthcare Retail EM High Yield -5.0 Consumer Goods -1.4 Insurance -1.8 Capital Goods -1.9 U.S. High Yield - BB U.S. High Yield - B Automotive Transportation Technology & Electronics U.S. High Yield - C -8.4 Financial Services Utility Media -3.3 Euro High Yield BB Euro High Yield B Services Telecommunications Basic Industry Euro High Yield CCC & Lower 2.3 Energy Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barings 1
3 Performance & Investment Strategy Q Absolute Contributions (%) Region BBB BB B CCC Total US Europe UK Emerging Markets Mutual Fund TOTAL Corporate Bonds Currency 0.03 Cash / Fees & Residual TOTAL Fund (Morningstar Net of Fees) Portfolio Positions 30 June 2015 and 30 September June September 2015 Automotive, 4.2 Consumer Goods, 4.4 Capital Goods, 7.5 Services, 8.4 Cash & Others, 6.4 Leisure, 3.4 Technology & Electronics, 4.1 Retail, 3.0 Telecomms, 13.2 Media, 13.0 Energy, 12.4 Leisure, 2.2 Technology & Electronics, 4.3 Automotive, 2.8 Consumer Goods, 3.7 Capital Goods, 8.1 Cash & Others, 13.5 Retail, 3.0 Telecomms, 11.9 Media, 13.3 Energy, 9.2 Healthcare, 8.8 Basic Industry, 11.2 Services, 6.6 Healthcare, 9.4 Basic Industry, 12.3 Portfolio Positions 30 June 2015 and 30 September June September 2015 BBB BB B CCC Total BBB BB B CCC Total US Europe UK Emerging Markets Mutual Fund Cash Total Portfolio Source: Barings 2
4 Market Review & Investment Outlook Global government bond markets enjoyed a positive quarter. Concern over a slowdown in China, and its implications for global growth prospects, resulted in a deterioration of investor sentiment. Equity markets had their worst quarterly performance since 2011 and both global high yield and investment grade corporate spreads reached a three year high. US monetary policy was another source of uncertainty. China related financial market volatility had already seen rate hike expectations diminish prior to September s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As such, it came as no real surprise that the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to delay the commencement of its monetary policy tightening cycle. The Fed noted risks from global economic developments and their potential impact on domestic economic activity and inflationary pressures. Reflecting the low growth and low inflationary environment, a number of central banks (Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Hungary and Taiwan) eased monetary policy conditions over the quarter. Meanwhile, many Emerging Markets (EM) policy makers face a dilemma, as a depreciation of their currencies create inflationary pressures against a backdrop of deteriorating growth prospects. A number of EM central banks have been forced to raise rates against this unfavourable backdrop (Brazil, Colombia, Peru and South Africa). The Fed s decision to delay the commencement of its monetary policy tightening cycle seems to be the catalyst for a wave of dovish comments emanating from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. President Draghi acknowledged that the recovery in the Eurozone, and a return to higher inflation was "somewhat weaker" than expected, leaving the option open for expanding its quantitative easing (QE) programme. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was also firmly on hold, although the board did acknowledge that inflation would remain around zero for the time being. It looks increasingly likely that further monetary accommodation will be necessary in order to achieve the inflation target. Meanwhile, S&P cut Japan s credit rating from AA- to A+, noting the country s very weak fiscal attributes. In the UK, the release of a number of downbeat activity indicators has become a cause for concern for overall growth in Q3. Industrial production and trade data disappointed, whilst the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) suggested that the soft patch that the UK is experiencing might be spreading to this sector. As expected the Bank of England (BoE) kept rates unchanged, with only one dissenter. The BoE s monetary policy committee minutes highlighted a preference to see some further evidence of stabilisation ahead of any decision to raise rates. Meanwhile, UK inflation fell, adding weight to the BoE s cautious stance. These conditions saw the UK government bond market outperform other major markets, as rate hike expectations were pushed back. In Europe, the peripheral markets of Spain and Italy were the main beneficiaries of an increasingly dovish sounding ECB. Markets were unfazed by elections in Spain and in Greece. In Spain, the Catalonian regional elections saw the separatist movement gain share, but fail to achieve an absolute majority, whilst the result of the Greek elections (the second in eight months) gave the far-left Syriza party a more convincing victory than expected. Having failed to gain an absolute majority however, a coalition will be formed with the right- wing Independent Greeks. In currencies, the US dollar had a strong start to the quarter, before reversing some of its gains amid fading expectations that the Fed would move on rates. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen benefitted from the risk-off environment due to its lower volatility characteristics, whilst EM currencies suffered the greatest losses, with double digit declines across a number of currencies. Political turmoil in Brazil, and a sovereign credit rating downgrade, saw the Brazilian real underperform. Outflows from emerging markets have accelerated on both growth concerns and on US monetary policy uncertainty. For emerging markets, clarification of Fed policy will be helpful, indeed, a number of EM policymakers urged the Fed to implement the first rate rise in September in order to reduce the uncertainty. Looking forward, China is likely to play a key role in future developments. The stress seen in the Chinese equity market has raised questions over how effective policy might be in ensuring a controlled slowdown, and avoiding a hard landing. China s official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data has moved to a three year low, with the detail of the survey revealing sharp declines in production and new orders. The country s trade surplus surged as the value of imports slumped, increasing concerns of a China related global growth downturn. The divergence between emerging market and developed market growth is likely to continue, the question is whether the weakness in emerging economies will be sufficient to derail the recovery in the advanced economies. Whilst acknowledging these downside risks, for the time being we expect a continued moderate pace of expansion in the US economy. Pressures on net exports from the stronger dollar and weaker global demand are likely to be offset by stronger consumption. Indeed, the latest retail sales and confidence indicators have reassured market participants of supportive domestic demand. Furthermore, most aspects of the labour market have returned to pre-crisis conditions. Despite September s disappointing Payroll s number, labour market trends seem to be fairly well embedded and insulated from EM stress. Expectations are similar for the UK, where modest wage growth and low inflation will likely feed through into consumption growth. Business and consumer confidence is likely to remain resilient, reflecting easing credit conditions. Similarly to the Fed, the dilemma for the BoE is the contrast between the steadily improving domestic economy and the weakening external environment. A question also remains over the timing over the commencement of the Fed s tightening cycle. The FOMC assessment of economic activity was upgraded at the September meeting, having expanded at a moderate pace. Since then, the Fed s chair (Yellen) and other officials have reiterated the intention to raise rates before the end of the year. Regardless of when this occurs, the US is still likely to move ahead of any other major central bank. The return of Eurozone inflation into negative territory is likely to increase pressure on the ECB to enlarge its stimulus package. Similarly in Japan, expectations are that increased accommodation will be required. With regards to portfolio construction, we aim to capture a number of possible market outcomes through our scenario process. The three themes that currently form our suite of scenarios are Chinese led competitive devaluation and rising disinflation, Eurozone joins in global growth upswing and Monetary policy slips behind the curve. 3
5 Scenarios UK Gilt Yield Euro Govt Yield US Treasury Yield Japan Govt Yield USD / JPY BUY AREA NEUTRAL AREA SELL AREA SCENARIO OVERVIEW Our process relies on a top down scenario analysis to model possible market responses to a variety of economic outcomes. Each scenario is then populated with macroeconomic forecasts, enabling us to develop forecasts for bond yield curves, currencies, swap spreads and credit spreads. By comparing the range of forecasts across scenarios with actual market levels, we can judge whether a particular asset is currently cheap or expensive given the potential scenarios that the market may move towards over the next few months. SCENARIO 1 Chinese led competitive devaluation and rising disinflation The theme of this Scenario is predicated upon the emergence of a period of global instability, caused by the outbreak of a currency war as Central Banks embark upon mutually reinforcing episodes of easy monetary policy. The cumulative effect of these serial policy orientations prevents those economies that would essentially benefit most from their deployment (on a unilateral basis) being able to sustain an adequate differential in monetary policy conditions, relative to their key trading partners. Currencies are influenced by the removal of expectation of widening interest rate differentials to the US and some pressure for non-usd currency appreciation is initially seen. However, with global financial conditions deteriorating, global trade volumes declining and persistent demand-deficient disappointments leading to activity and growth levels falling short of market expectations, commodity prices remain weak (negatively affecting G-10 commodity currency valuations). Furthermore, as easier monetary policy conditions are developed elsewhere there is some notable success by policy makers leaning against what otherwise would be a catalyst for US dollar depreciation. Emerging markets currency valuations retreat with some stabilization potential evident in energy deficit countries. SCENARIO 2 Eurozone joins in global growth upswing This Scenario is themed upon a continued recovery in the Eurozone economy under the influence of the plentiful supply of monetary policy accommodation and upon a less aggressive schedule of fiscal consolidation. Constraining factors that ensured that Eurozone economic performance trailed that of the rest of the global economy in 2013/4/5 are removed, and the region s recovery becomes much more selfsustaining than previously had been the case. Even while stronger activity levels are seen and inflation begins to rise, the ECB remains committed to its program of monetary policy easing, through to the end of Q3 2016, in line with its prior communication strategy. While the ECB starts to guide towards expectations of tighter policy being required by the end of 2016, there is no move to actually change monetary policy conditions during the forecast period. SCENARIO 3 Monetary policy slips behind the curve This Scenario describes a reticent start to the Federal Reserve s upcoming interest rate tightening program: an initial hike is delayed so that it occurs towards the end of the forecast period and, after a pause a further hike is possibly delivered. However, the speed of response is too slow to fully counter the growing inflation threat presented by the tightening of the labor market. While the US economy does not develop into an inflationary boom, the prevailing level of nominal GDP growth that is established contains a greater proportion of inflation, and a lower level of real growth, relative to current consensus. The Federal Reserve eventually charts a new path towards rates normalization by adopting a more hawkish bias, suggesting that the pace of policy tightening that will continue in the period beyond the forecasting horizon will be more aggressive than that discounted by the market at the point when tightening commences. In the meantime, the US Treasury curve steepens to reflect the market s expectations of deterioration in inflation risk premia. A period of market stress emerges as monetary policy is, for a transitory period, inappropriate for the developing economic conditions. Growth and inflation in Europe and Japan stabilize given that these economies start to benefit from their relatively helpful, easier, monetary and fiscal policy conditions, variously established in the prior period. Source: Barings 4
6 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OR CONTACT: France and Belgium: Benoit du Mesnil du Buisson +33 (0) Germany and Austria : Lars Albert +49 (0) lars.albert@barings.com Luxembourg: Thomas Justen +49 (0) thomas.justen@barings.com Nordic region: Peter Curry (+44) peter.curry@barings.com South America: Brian Corris (+44) brian.corris@barings.com Spain: Rod Aldridge (+44) rod.aldridge@barings.com Switzerland: Veronique Fournier veronique.fournier@barings.com UK, Ireland and Channel Islands: Rod Aldridge (+44) rod.aldridge@barings.com IMPORTANT INFORMATION For Professional Investors/Advisers only. It should not be distributed to or relied on by Retail Investors. This document is approved and issued by Baring Asset Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and in jurisdictions other than the UK it is provided by the appropriate Baring Asset Management company/affiliate whose name(s) and contact details are specified herein. This is not an offer to sell or an invitation to apply for any product or service of Baring Asset Management and is by way of information only. Before investing in any product, we recommend that recipients who are not professional investors contact their financial adviser. The Key Investor Information Document (KIID) must be received and read before investing. All other relevant documents relating to the product such as the Report and Accounts and Prospectus should also be read. The information in this document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice or recommendation or, an offer to sell or an invitation to apply for any product or service of Baring Asset Management. Investment involves risk. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Where yields have been quoted they are not guaranteed. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. Investments in higher yielding bonds issued by borrowers with lower credit ratings may result in a greater risk of default and have a negative impact on income and capital value. Income payments may constitute a return of capital in whole or in part. Income may be achieved by foregoing future capital growth. We reasonably believe that the information contained herein from 3rd party sources, as quoted, is accurate as at the date of publication. The information and any opinions expressed herein may change at any time. This document may include internal portfolio construction guidelines. As guidelines the fund is not required to and may not always be within these limits. These guidelines are subject to change without prior notice and are provided for information purposes only. This document may include forward looking statements which are based on our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward looking statements. Compensation arrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available in respect of any offshore fund. Shares in the Fund are not available in any jurisdiction in which the offer or sale would be prohibited; in particular the Fund may not be sold directly or indirectly in the US or to a US person. Subscriptions will only be received and shares issued on the basis of the current Prospectus. For data sourced from Morningstar: Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Version 11/SD Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3XY Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Follow us on twitter.com/barings 5
M&G Corporate Bond Fund
Quarterly Review M&G Corporate Bond Fund Third quarter 2015 Fund manager Richard Woolnough Overview A general risk-off tone prevailed in the third quarter amid significant volatility in risk markets, driving
More informationStatement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services
For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives
More informationGlobal Markets Update Signature Global Advisors
SIGNATURE GLOBAL ADVISORS MARKETS UPDATE AUGUST 3, 2011 The following comments come from an internal interview with Chief Investment Officer, Eric Bushell. They represent Signature s current market views
More informationOctober 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks
More informationpercentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationGlobal bond investing
Global bond investing Todd Schlanger, CFA Investment Strategy Group Vanguard Asset Management, Limited This document is directed at professional investors and should not be distributed to, or relied upon
More informationHow Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns
Strategic Advisory Solutions April 2015 How Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns In an environment where the US continues to be the growth engine of the developed world, investors may find opportunity
More information2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
More informationMarket Review September 2015
Market Review September 2015 Markets remained volatile in September, impacted by the ongoing concerns over slower growth in China and other emerging markets and fears over possible contagion to the global
More informationX. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
More informationFINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015
FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015 SUMMARY OF THE MACROECONOMIC INFORMATION The macroeconomic scenario Deflation in Europe, the USA well. The passage of years is very positive for the United States: the positive
More informationFOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27
More informationPERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT
PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank
More informationThe global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist
The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but
More informationThe spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries
The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries Tatiana Fic National Institute of Economic and Social Research Objective The objective
More informationFOREX WEEKLY REPORT. 22 April - 28 April 2013. Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer. Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist
Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer FOREX WEEKLY REPORT Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT Senior Analyst www.migbank.com DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES FOREX WEEKLY REPORT - An overview
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook May 2014 Stocks to Rebound with Q2 GDP & Earnings Recovery, Fresh ECB (& BoJ) Stimulus, Fed keeping U.S. Rates Low & Easing
More informationFIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015 IN BRIEF: The U.S. Fixed Income Markets During the third quarter, the U.S. economy showed continued progress coupled with a decline in the U.S. unemployment
More informationRecent Developments in Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy
June 23, 2016 Bank of Japan Recent Developments in Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Ishikawa Takahide Kiuchi Member of the Policy Board (English
More informationTaxable Fixed Income Outlook: Waiting for Those Rising Rates
Taxable Fixed Income Outlook: Waiting for Those Rising Rates Market Commentary Fourth quarter 2014 MOST INVESTORS UNDERSTAND THAT INTEREST RATES ARE UNPREDICTABLE. But we suspect few believed rates could
More informationINFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate
More informationHow To Get Through The Month Of August
London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15 Global Macro Overview Global equities experienced their sharpest falls since 2011, with most major markets moving into correction territory (a fall of more than
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationWhy Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon?
September 015 MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHT Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? The fear of rising interest rates, which has clouded investors psyches for years, has
More informationWhy Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015
Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: :1 (UK), 1 March 14 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Developed world set to lead strengthening global upturn in 14 Global business optimism hits two-year high Improved
More informationM&G Corporate Bond Fund
M&G Corporate Bond Fund a sub-fund of M&G Investment Funds (3) Annual Short Report June 2015 For the year ended 30 June 2015 Fund information The Authorised Corporate Director (ACD) of M&G Investment Funds
More informationM&G European High Yield Bond Fund
M&G European High Yield Bond Fund a sub-fund of M&G Investment Funds (3) Annual Short Report June 2015 For the year ended 30 June 2015 Fund information The Authorised Corporate Director (ACD) of M&G Investment
More informationBond Market Insights October 10, 2014
Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014 by John Simms, CFA and Jerry Wiesner, CFA General Bond Market Treasury yields rose in September as prices fell. Yields in the belly of the curve (5- to 7-year maturities)
More informationGlobal Agg REITS 34.4% REITS MSCI EM 35.8% MSCI EM 33.6% 4.8% Comdty. Small cap. Comdty MSCI EM 28.8% 16.2% -35.6% Growth 10.5% Value.
Market Review 5 January 2016 Review of markets over the fourth quarter 2015 2015 was a busy year for investors. First, quantitative easing (QE) from the an Central Bank (ECB), then the spike in bond yields,
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone
More informationApril 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2015 Stocks to Stabilize & Post Gains with Further Rate Cuts & Easing Measures, ECB s QE, Gradual, Modest
More informationGlobal Economic Perspective: November
Global Economic Perspective: November November 19, 2015 by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments IN THIS ISSUE: Fundamentals Reassert Themselves Ahead of Likely US Rate
More information2015 Mid-Year Market Review
2015 Mid-Year Market Review Cedar Hill Associates, LLC www.cedhill.com 6111 North River Road, Suite 1100, Rosemont, Illinois 60018 Phone: 312/445-2900 An Affiliate of MB Financial Bank 2015 Major Investment
More informationSHORT DURATION BONDS
SHORT DURATION BONDS Our Short Duration Bond Fund range RL Short Duration Gilt Fund RL Short Duration Global Index Linked Bond Fund RL Short Duration Credit Fund RL Duration Hedged Credit Fund RL Short
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationStrategy German engine in headwind
Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because
More informationInvestment insight. Fixed income the what, when, where, why and how TABLE 1: DIFFERENT TYPES OF FIXED INCOME SECURITIES. What is fixed income?
Fixed income investments make up a large proportion of the investment universe and can form a significant part of a diversified portfolio but investors are often much less familiar with how fixed income
More informationBond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks
Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing
More informationNORTHERN TRUST ACTIVE FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE. Core/Core Plus Investment Strategy
NORTHERN TRUST ACTIVE FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE Core/Core Plus Investment Strategy December 31, 2014 Northern Trust Asset Management 50 South La Salle Street Chicago, Illinois 60603 northerntrust.com
More informationCapital preservation strategy update
Client Education Summit 2012 Capital preservation strategy update Head of Institutional Fixed Income Investments, Americas October 9, 2012 Topics for discussion 1 Capital preservation strategies 2 3 4
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationElite LJ Active Portfolio Fund
Elite LJ Active Portfolio Fund Short Report for the year ended 30 April 2015 Investment Objective and Policy The objective of the Fund is to achieve a total positive return in all market conditions, over
More informationEuro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States
WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the
More informationMackenzie Private Wealth Counsel
Mackenzie Private Wealth Counsel Q1 216 Review Opportunities in a Challenging Macro Environment Todd Mattina, Chief Economist and Strategist, Mackenzie Asset Allocation Team Following one of the rockiest
More informationCIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering
CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of
More informationFOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.
More informationThe Case for International Fixed Income
The Case for International Fixed Income June 215 Introduction Investing in fixed-income securities outside of the United States is often perceived as a riskier strategy than deploying those assets domestically,
More informationBANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September
More information2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
TTG WEALTH MANAGEMENT 2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 2015Q1 Core Asset Allocation Summary 1 2015Q1 Satellite Asset Allocation Summary 2 2014 Year-End Review 3 Investment Outlook for
More informationEconomic Outlook for Europe and Finland
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international
More informationTREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS
EMBARGOED: FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. EST, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2011 TREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS October December 2010 During the fourth quarter of 2010, the U.S. dollar s
More informationGrowth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments
Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments PineBridge Investments forecasts 2.7% GDP growth in the United States Eurozone growth projected to slightly improve
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland
More informationMonthly Economic Dashboard
RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves
More informationEQUINOX PERFORMANCE REPORT SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2006 MACQUARIE EQUINOX LIMITED PARTICIPATING SHARES ARBN 105 989 231
PERFORMANCE REPORT SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2006 MACQUARIE LIMITED PARTICIPATING SHARES ARBN 105 989 231 Market Commentary Hedge Fund Industry The direction of financial markets in the third quarter was broadly
More informationPioneer Bond Fund. Performance Analysis & Commentary September 2015. Fund Ticker Symbols: PIOBX (Class A); PICYX (Class Y) us.pioneerinvestments.
Pioneer Bond Fund COMMENTARY Performance Analysis & Commentary September 2015 Fund Ticker Symbols: PIOBX (Class A); PICYX (Class Y) us.pioneerinvestments.com Third Quarter Review Pioneer Bond Fund s Class
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone
More informationFresno County Employees Retirement System Core Plus & MSFD
Fresno County Employees Retirement System Core Plus & MSFD November 2, 2011 PRESENTED BY Stephanie S. Lord, CFA, CIC Vice President, Client Portfolio Manager One Financial Center Boston, Massachusetts
More information2015 2 nd Quarter Market Commentary
2015 2 nd Quarter Market Commentary 1 Second Quarter Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve communicated that recent economic growth means the era of easy money may soon come to a close, causing bond yields
More informationMawer Canadian Bond Fund. Interim Management Report of Fund Performance
Interim Management Report of Fund Performance For the Period Ended June 30, 2015 This interim management report of fund performance contains financial highlights but does not contain either interim or
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook 3rd Quarter 2014 Offprint Economic Outlook Eurozone Global Economic Outlook 3rd Quarter 2014 Contents United States: A major first-quarter stumble, but future prospects remain undimmed
More informationResearch US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined
Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic
More informationFixed Income Asset Allocation
Fixed Income Asset Allocation j a n n e y fixed income strat e g y Our three-pronged approach to 2015 portfolio construction has run its course, with value today found in securitized products and preferreds.
More informationEconomic & Market Outlook
Monthly Portfolio Commentary December 31, 2015 Economic & Market Outlook Stocks rebounded in 2015 s fourth quarter, but provided little reward for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 Index recovered from
More informationFUNDS TM. G10 Currencies: White Paper. A Monetary Policy Analysis FUNDS. The Authority on Currencies
FUNDS White Paper The Authority on Currencies Merk Investments LLC Research MAY 2012 G10 Currencies: A Monetary Policy Analysis Merk Monetary Score favors currencies of, and Canada; disfavors currencies
More informationOVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds
OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has
More informationUNLOCKING VALUE IN EUROPEAN HIGH YIELD
UNLOCKING VALUE IN EUROPEAN HIGH YIELD 26 March 2015 Mike Della Vedova T. Rowe Price European High Yield Portfolio Manager About T. Rowe Price As of 31 December 2014 Figures Shown in Euros T. ROWE PRICE:
More informationWhy own bonds when yields are low?
Why own bonds when yields are low? Vanguard research November 213 Executive summary. Given the backdrop of low yields in government bond markets across much of the developed world, many investors may be
More informationFixed Income Review. Second Quarter 2015
Second Quarter 2015 As of June 30, 2015 Total Return Performance Calendar Year Performance Index MTD QTD YTD 2014 2013 2012 Barclays US Aggregate -1.1% -1.7% -0.1% 6.0% -2.0% 4.2% BAML US Agency Index
More informationM C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C
M C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C 6 Landmark Square, Stamford, CT 06901 Phone (203) 487-6700 Fax: (203) 487-6720 A Global Economy that Sisyphus Would Understand 2013 AAAIM National
More informationStatement to Parliamentary Committee
Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement
More informationHow close are we to the end of the credit cycle?
How close are we to the end of the credit cycle? SIGMA Credit Risk Premium Group October 214 Executive summary Investors in fixed income should bear in mind an observation from the veteran investor Howard
More informationMonetary Policy Matters
Monetary Policy Matters February 26, 2015 by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments This year we expect the divergence in monetary policy among the world s central banks to be a key theme and a
More informationBe prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland
www.pwc.ch/swissfranc Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Introduction The Swiss economy is cooling down and we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of uncertainty in
More informationTREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15
Committee and Date Cabinet 10 June 2015 12.30 pm Item 9 Public TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Responsible Officer James Walton e-mail: james.walton@shropshire.gov.uk Tel: (01743) 255011 1.
More informationMINUTES of a meeting of the INVESTMENT COMMITTEE held at County Hall, Matlock on 16 April 2007 PRESENT. Councillor G Carlile (in the Chair)
MINUTES of a meeting of the INVESTMENT COMMITTEE held at County Hall, Matlock on 16 April 2007 Derbyshire County Council PRESENT Councillor G Carlile (in the Chair) Councillors Mrs M Booth, P J G Clark,
More informationNEWTON GLOBAL HIGH YIELD BOND FUND
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT REPORT PREPARED FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY // AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2015 NEWTON GLOBAL HIGH YIELD BOND FUND PERFORMANCE DISCLOSURE Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 19 May 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South Africa s
More informationImpact of QE on Fixed Income
Impact of QE on Fixed Income David Greene, Client Portfolio Manager Pioneer Investments Unconstrained Approaches Potential returns mean investors have to be more opportunistic 5 0 Expected return based
More informationThinking tactically: What really happens next?
Thinking tactically: What really happens next? Guy Monson March 2015 Since 2008, Central bank asset purchases have successfully protected markets from an array of global risks... A SHARP INCREASE IN CENTRAL
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics December Highlights Fed normalization begins More policy moves in China Canada s uneven economy BoC on hold, lower CAD Per cent 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Federal Funds Rate A continuation
More informationRBS Investment Options ICVC. Final Short Report. for the year ended 31 October 2014
RBS Investment Options ICVC Final Short Report for the year ended 31 October 2014 RBS Investment Options ICVC Final Short Report Table of Contents Report of the Authorised Corporate Director 2 Economic
More informationLetter from the CIO: Our Outlook for 2016
Letter from the CIO: Our Outlook for 2016 As many of you know, twice a year the Stone Harbor investment team spends two days offsite to discuss the outlook for economic activity, political risks and markets.
More informationStaying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world
Staying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world Dr Peter Westaway Chief Economist, Europe Vanguard Asset Management November 2013 This document is directed at investment professionals and should
More informationGlobal Agg REITS MSCI EM MSCI EM 35.8% REITS 34.4% 33.6% 4.8% Small cap. Comdty. Comdty MSCI EM -35.6% 28.8% 16.2% Growth 10.5% REITS. Value.
Market Review November 2015 Review of markets over October October was the month that equities came back. Stock exchanges across the globe had a great month, rebounding from the late summer drawdowns,
More informationBond Outlook. Third Quarter 2014. Waiting on the Fed. 10-Year Treasury Yields. Treasury Bonds. Break-even Inflation Rate
Third Quarter 21 Waiting on the Fed Despite a strong rebound in domestic economic activity with gross domestic production accelerating toward %, persistent low inflationary pressures and dramatically lower
More informationMonthly Review of ABLV Mutual Funds (December, 2015)
Monthly Review of ABLV Mutual Funds (December, 2015) Management company comment The last month of the year 2015 was a big disappointment to almost all asset investors. Contrary to the traditional Santa
More informationBond Market Insights July 15, 2015
Bond Market Insights July 15, 2015 by Jerry Wiesner, CFA and Stephen Frahm General Bond Market Treasury yields rose during the second quarter as prices fell. The yield curve steepened, as long yields rose
More informationConsolidated Quarterly Report of Baader Bank AG as at 31.03.2015
Consolidated Quarterly Report of Baader Bank AG as at 31.03.2015 OVERVIEW OF KEY FIGURES RESULTS OF OPERATIONS Q1 2015 Q1 2014 Change in % Net interest income EUR thousand -95 869 >-100.0 Current income
More informationOpportunities in credit higher quality high-yield bonds
Highlights > > Default rates below the long-term average > > Valuations wide of historical average in BB and B rated credit > > Despite sluggish economy, high yield can still perform well > > High yield
More informationDetermining the cost of equity
Determining the cost of equity Macroeconomic factors and the discount rate Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate London EC2M 3XY Tel: +44 (0)20 7628 6000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7638 7928 www.barings.com
More informationWhy Consider Bank Loan Investing?
Why Consider Bank Loan Investing? September 2012 Bank loans continue to increase in popularity among a variety of investors in search of higher yield potential than other types of bonds, with lower relative
More informationAre Unconstrained Bond Funds a Substitute for Core Bonds?
TOPICS OF INTEREST Are Unconstrained Bond Funds a Substitute for Core Bonds? By Peter Wilamoski, Ph.D. Director of Economic Research Philip Schmitt, CIMA Senior Research Associate AUGUST 2014 The problem
More informationYear Two. World Report
Year Two The global economy is now a little more than one year into the economic and stock market recoveries that have occurred since the Lehman shock of September 2008. After that credit crisis triggered
More informationGLOBAL ASSET CLASSES We remain neutral equities in the lead up to the first US rate hike and cut bonds to underweight on valuation grounds.
UNDERWEIGHT NEUTRAL OVERWEIGHT + MONTHLY CHANGE Maximum change GLOBAL ASSET CLASSES We remain neutral equities in the lead up to the first US rate hike and cut bonds to underweight on valuation grounds.
More informationPortfolio Series Portfolio Review Second Quarter 2010
Portfolio Series Portfolio Review Second Quarter 2010 We are pleased to introduce Portfolio Review, a new quarterly report on Portfolio Series. 3 Portfolio Series Income Fund 7 Portfolio Series Conservative
More informationHigh Yield Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment August 2014
This paper examines the impact rising rates are likely to have on high yield bond performance. We conclude that while a rising rate environment would detract from high yield returns, historically returns
More informationManpower Employment Outlook Survey Singapore Q3 2014. A Manpower Research Report
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Singapore Q3 14 A Manpower Research Report Contents Q3/14 Singapore Employment Outlook 2 Sector Comparisons Global Employment Outlook 6 International Comparisons - Asia
More information