Canada and Africa s Natural Resources: Key Features 2013

Transcription

1 Canada and Africa s Natural Resources: Key Features 2013 by Aniket Bhushan Senior Researcher, The North-South Institute

2 This report provides an overview and analysis of key data available through the Canadian International Development Platform (CIDP). The CIDP is an interactive data and analysis platform on Canada s engagement with the developing world. The webbased platform is available through the main North-South Institute website or at Contents Figures... 2 Oil and Gas Reserves and Trade... 3 Canadian Mining Assets Abroad... 6 Canadian Capital Markets as Source of Finance for Africa s Growing Natural Resource Sector... 9 Natural Resources and Governance in Africa References Figures Figure 1. The World's Resources: Oil Reserves, Africa Relative to Other Regions... 3 Figure 2. Top 20 Countries in Canada s Oil and Gas Trade... 4 Figure 3. Top 20 Countries in Canada s Mining Trade... 5 Figure 4. Canadian Mining Assets Abroad... 6 Figure 5. Canadian Owned Producing Mining Properties in Africa... 7 Figure 6. Top 40 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies Listed on Canadian Exchanges with Operations in Africa... 9 Figure 7. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and Africa Figure 8. Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance

3 This report focuses on the theme of natural resources and governance with an emphasis on Africa. In addition we reflect on Canada s and Canadian companies role in Africa s natural resource sector. The primary focus is on mining and the oil and gas sector. This report also covers governance issues, both at the general level as well as specific to the natural resources sector. Oil and Gas Reserves and Trade Figure 1. The World's Resources: Oil Reserves, Africa Relative to Other Regions Source: BP (2012) Africa is rich in natural resources. Indeed revenue raised from the natural resources sector has been the most important driver of revenue mobilization for African countries in recent years (Bhushan 2013). Africa accounts for 8 per cent of the world s proven oil reserves. 1 The continent is also home to new oil producers such as Uganda and Ghana. Libya and Nigeria account for the majority of Africa s proven oil reserves. 1 By comparison, Canada accounts for nearly 11 per cent of the world s proven oil reserves. 3

4 Figure 2. Top 20 Countries in Canada's Oil and Gas Trade Source: Industry Canada (2013), data are for 2012 (the United States is excluded from map) As mentioned earlier oil and gas extraction is one of the largest industries in Canada s bilateral trade, accounting for around 20 per cent of total trade. The United States dominates Canada s bilateral trade in this sector. However, six African countries are among the top 20 countries in Canada s oil and gas trade: Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d Ivoire, and Chad. Algeria is the second largest oil and gas trade partner for Canada and accounts for significant share of Canadian imports of oil and gas. 4

5 Figure 3. Top 20 Countries in Canada's Mining Trade Source: Industry Canada (2013), data are for 2012 (the United States and United Kingdom are excluded from map) Mining is the single largest industry in Canada s bilateral trade, accounting for around 23 per cent of Canada s imports. With the exception of the United States and United Kingdom, which are Canada s largest trade partners in the mining sector, countries in Latin America and Asia dominate Canada s mining trade, while the only African country among the list of top 20 partners in terms of import value in 2012 was Egypt. 5

6 Canadian Mining Assets Abroad Figure 4. Canadian Mining Assets Abroad Source: NRCan (2013) The value of bilateral trade in the mining sector is one of several ways of looking at Canada s engagement in the sector globally, and specifically in Africa. The data above show Canadian mining assets abroad. 2 The calculation of mining assets abroad is on the basis of asset valuation (as opposed to trade). Mining asset valuation provides a good sense of Canada s mining presence internationally, even though there may be limitations in terms of comparison with other data. Specifically mining asset valuation 2 Note on data definitions provided by Natural Resources Canada: Mining Assets are those associated to a company s mining and mineral businesses segment non-current fixed assets. Assets are recorded geographically as accurately as possible based on data availability from company financial reports. Only investments in foreign mining companies are recorded, in order to avoid double counting. Values are converted to Canadian dollars using the rates posted at the date of the financial report. Canada s mining assets abroad estimates, as calculated by Natural Resources Canada, differ from the Canadian Direct Investment Abroad figures estimated by Statistics Canada. 6

7 differs from foreign direct investment (FDI) data in a few key ways: FDI presumes financing comes from Canada while asset valuation does not. FDI considers both asset and liabilities while the above only considers assets. FDI data are based on first destination while the above is based on the final destination. 3 The stock of total Canadian mining assets in Africa is estimated at C$31.6 billion in The largest region for Canadian mining assets abroad, by far, is Latin America, with around C$156 billion. The total stock of Canadian mining assets abroad is estimated at C$215.3 billion, which implies Africa s share of total Canadian mining assets is about 14.6 per cent. Within Africa the largest countries in terms of Canadian owned mining assets are: Zambia, Mauritania, South Africa, Madagascar, Ghana, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso. Figure 5. Canadian Owned Producing Mining Properties in Africa Sources: InfoMine (2013) and SEDAR (2013), mines producing in 2011 and 2012 geocoded 3 Canadian investment destined for Mexico that goes through a US subsidiary is counted as FDI in the United States. The same transaction asset valuation terms would be counted in Mexico. 7

8 For a more granular picture of Canadian mining in Africa, we analyzed and geocoded data from two additional sources for this report: InfoMine, a mining industry data portal, and the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR). InfoMine provides data from the perspective of individual properties or mines. In the view above we limit the data to mines that had production in 2011 and We assess total production per commodity per mine site. This information is further collated from company financial reports and/or from SEDAR. Data in the map view are provided for mine sites in production (geocoded to the actual location within each country) for Canadian companies producing in Africa in 2011 and We also calculated the total revenue yield per mine site, company, country, and commodity. The revenue estimate is calculated by multiplying total production with the international price of the given commodity. 5 It should be stressed that this is a partial approach and we are well aware of the limitations. It does not include the associated operational, capital and other costs, and therefore is only a gross figure. The thinking behind it is simply to illustrate the sense of scale involved. Our findings are as follows: total revenue yield, or the total value of all commodities produced by Canadian owned mines in Africa, in 2012 was approximately $7.6 billion. 6 The equivalent figure for 2011 was approximately $4.1 billion. The largest producing Canadian companies were: First Quantum, Lundin Mining, New Dawn Mining, Franco- Nevada, IAM Gold, Kinross, Galane, Barrick Gold, Nevsun Resources, and Semafo. Gold and copper are by far the most important commodities produced by Canadian companies in Africa. Zambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Burkina Faso were the most important countries for Canadian-owned properties in production. While countries like Eritrea, endowed with gold, are also rapidly emerging. 4 Mining activities take place at specific stages, from exploration, to mine construction, to actual production. Production is a late stage. Mining properties at the exploration, prospecting or construction stage are excluded from the view above. 5 For gold and copper average annual prices for the production year were taken from the London Metal Exchange. For diamonds company sources were used for price. International Monetary Fund price data were used for other commodities. 6 By comparison, using the same method and sources, our estimate of the total revenue yield for Latin America for 2011 is $18.7 billion. 8

9 Canadian Capital Markets as Source of Finance for Africa s Growing Natural Resource Sector Figure 6. Top 40 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies Listed on Canadian Exchanges with Operations in Africa Name Headquarter Region Headquarter Location Sector Where They Are Active in Africa Listed on Exchange Barrick Gold Canada Ontario Mining Tanzania,Zambia TSX Corporation Canadian Natural Canada Alberta Oil & Offshore West TSX Resources Limited Gas Africa Nexen Inc. Canada Alberta Oil & Nigeria TSX Gas Africa Oil Corp Canada British Oil & Somalia TSXV Gas Kinross Gold Canada Ontario Mining Mauritania TSX Corporation Talisman Energy Canada Alberta Oil & Algeria TSX Inc. Gas First Quantum Canada British Mining Mauritania,Zambia TSX Minerals Ltd. Mart Resources Canada Alberta Oil & Nigeria TSXV Inc. Gas IAMGold Canada Ontario Mining Burkina Faso,Mali TSX Corporation Uranium One Inc. Canada Ontario Mining Tanzania TSX Strategic Oil & Canada British Oil & West Africa TSXV Gas Ltd. Gas Sherritt Canada Ontario Mining Madagascar TSX International Corporation TransGlobe Canada Alberta Oil & Egypt TSX Energy Corporation Gas Madalena Canada Alberta Oil & Tunisia TSXV Ventures Inc. Gas Afferro Mining Inc UK/Europe UK Mining Cameroon TSXV Semafo Inc. Canada Quebec Mining Burkina TSX Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. Paladin Energy Ltd. Faso,Guinea,Niger Canada Saskatoon Mining South Africa TSXV Australia/NZ /PNG Australia Mining Malawi,Namibia,Ni ger TSX 9

10 Reservoir Canada British Mining Cameroon TSXV Minerals Inc Canaco Canada British Mining Tanzania TSXV Resources Inc. Banro Canada Ontario Mining DRC (Congo) TSX Corporation Roxgold Inc Canada British Mining Burkina Faso TSXV Orca Exploration Africa Tanzania Oil & Tanzania TSXV Group Inc Gas True Gold Mining Canada British Mining Burkina Faso TSXV Inc. Endeavour Mining Corporation Other Cayman Islands Mining Burkina Faso,Côte d'ivoire,ghana,lib TSX HRT Participacoes em Petroleo S.A. Denison Mines Corp. Gold Canyon Resources Inc. Longreach Oil and Gas Limited Mexico and Central/Sout h America Brazil Oil & Gas eria,mali Namibia TSXV Canada Ontario Mining Zambia TSX Canada British Mining Malawi TSXV Canada Ontario Oil & Morocco TSXV Gas Emperor Oil Ltd Canada British Oil & Sudan TSXV Gas Perseus Mining Australia/NZ Australia Mining Côte TSX Limited /PNG d'ivoire,ghana Robex Resources Canada Quebec Mining Mali TSXV Inc. Diamcor Mining Canada British Mining South Africa TSXV Inc. Nevsun Canada British Mining Eritrea TSX Resources Ltd. Loncor Canada Ontario Mining DRC (Congo) TSXV Resources Inc Platinum Group Africa South Africa Mining South Africa TSX Metals Ltd. Atlatsa Canada British Mining South Africa TSXV Resources Corporation Great Quest Canada British Mining Mali TSXV Metals Ltd. Sunridge Gold Canada British Mining Eritrea,Madagasca TSXV Corp. r Ivanplats Limited Canada British Mining DRC TSX (Congo),Gabon,So uth Africa Sources: TMX Group (2013a,b), data as of March 2013 Float Quoted Market Value 10

11 Africa s rapidly growing natural resources sector needs access to capital to realize its huge potential. Canadian capital markets are one of the most important sources of financing for the mining, oil, and gas sector. Ninety per cent of all global mining equity financing and 39 per cent of the equity capital raised for mining globally in 2011 was raised on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the Venture exchange (TSXV). Canadian exchanges are the largest source of mining financing in the world. The vast majority of companies raise capital on Canadian markets to finance the exploration and advanced exploration phases. Thanks to a highly mining-friendly business climate, Canadian capital markets are especially attractive to small and medium-sized mining companies. In 2011, 173 companies raised around C$1 billion in capital on Canadian markets to finance mining operations in Africa. The largest of these were for gold, uranium, copper, diamonds, and other minerals in regions and countries including Tanzania, West Africa, Ghana, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Namibia. Zambia, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, and Burkina Faso are key countries where equity capital raised in Canada finances mining projects. The table above shows data for the top 40 companies listed on either the TSX or TSXV (by quoted market value as of March 2013) with operations in the mining, oil, and gas sector in Africa. In total, as of March 2013, there were 189 companies listed on the TSX (83) and TSXV (106) with operations in the mining, oil, and gas sector in Africa. 11

12 Natural Resources and Governance in Africa Figure 7. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and Africa 12

13 Sources: EITI (2013) and World Bank (2013) The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is a global standard that promotes revenue transparency at the local level by bringing together audited data on payments made by companies in the extractive sector to governments, and government reports on payments received. Eighteen African countries have either compliant or candidate status within EITI. The majority of EITI-compliant companies are in Africa. However, five of the eight suspended EITI countries (as of April 2013) are also in Africa. These include some of the largest natural resource-rich countries in Africa including: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mauritania, Madagascar, Central African Republic, and Sierra Leone. Notably, Canadian mining companies are highly active in most of these countries. Nigeria reports the largest extractive revenue of any country at US$68 billion or 28 per cent of Nigeria s GDP. EITI reported extractive sector revenues are also significant in the Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Mali, Zambia, and Tanzania. EITI revenue reported for African countries range from 38 per cent in the Republic of the 13

14 Congo to less than 1 per cent in Mozambique, Burkina Faso, and Sierra Leone. Figure 8. Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance Source: Mo Ibrahim Foundation (2013) The Mo Ibrahim Foundation produces the only comprehensive annual African-led governance rating system that measures governance across the continent along four dimensions: human development, participation and human rights, safety and the rule of law, and sustainable economic opportunity. The same countries have more or less consistently topped the rankings since 2006: Mauritius, Cape Verde, Botswana, Seychelles, and South Africa. However, the rate of progress, measured as the change in the index value between 2006 and 2012, is more interesting. Of the 52 countries for which data are available, governance improved during this period in most countries and deteriorated in only 16. Delving deeper into the components, it is clear that overall performance is driven by progress in human development, with only six countries show 14

15 deteriorating performance on this dimension. Safety and the rule of law is the clear drag on overall performance, with 35 countries showing deteriorating performance on this dimension. The countries where governance is deteriorating the most as measured by the overall index include: Madagascar, Libya, Eritrea, Senegal, and Mauritania. Notably, these are countries in which Canadian companies have significant presence, as we have seen earlier. 15

16 References BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June London: BP. Bhushan, Aniket Domestic Resource Mobilization and the Post-2015 Agenda. GREAT Insights 2 (3): EITI (Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) EITI Reports. Accessed May 9, Industry Canada Trade Data Online. Accessed May 9, InfoMine Charts & Data. Accessed May 9, Mo Ibrahim Foundation The Ibrahim Index of African Governance. NRCan (Natural Resources Canada) Canadian Mining Assets Information Bulletin. January. SEDAR (System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval) SEDAR Database. Accessed May 9, TMX Group. 2013a. The MiG Report: February Toronto: TMX Group b. The MiG Report: March Toronto: TMX Group. World Bank World Development Indicators. Accessed May 9,

17 About the Author Aniket Bhushan is a Senior Researcher at The North-South Institute (NSI), a Canadianbased policy research institution. His research focuses on open data and domestic resource mobilization in sub-saharan Africa. Mr. Bhushan heads NSI s work on the Canadian International Development Platform (CIDP), a data and analytical platform on Canada s engagement with the developing world. Mr. Bhushan s current research focuses on the impact of big data and open data on public policy. His academic background includes degrees in political science and commerce, and he completed his M.A. in political science at Carleton University (Canada). The author wishes to thank Nathan Bowers-Krishnan for research assistance. About The North-South Institute The North-South Institute is a non-profit organization that provides research, capacity-building and policy advice on international development to governments, inter-governmental organizations, the private sector and civil society. 17