Religare Morning Digest

Transcription

1 Nifty Outlook After four successive days of fall, Nifty somehow managed to close flat on Friday, thanks to rebound in select index majors in the later half. Some support came in with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan s statement that the current clean-up of bank balance sheets will help spur economic growth and improve the lenders profitability. Also, firm opening of the European markets further added to the recovery. For any sustainable recovery, Nifty should stabilise first but that seems difficult, considering the pace of decline in the passing week. We expect the prevailing slide to extend further with next major support now at 6800 in Nifty. VWAP Max Call Max Put News NIFTY Domestic passenger car sales fell for the first time in 15 months after logging a marginally dip to 1,68,303 units in January as against 1,69,527 units in the year-ago period. Vehicle sales across categories registered an increase of 3.03 per cent to 17,00,257 units from 16,50,227 units in January 2015, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Adani Ports consolidated net profit rose 25.94% to Rs crore on 11.27% rise in total income to Rs crore in Q3 December 2015 over Q3 December Mahindra & Mahindra net profit declined 14.23% to Rs crore on 16.66% rise in total income to Rs crore in Q3 December 2015 over Q3 December Religare Super Ideas Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Range SL Target IGL BUY BAJAJ-AUTO SELL FEB FUT Derivative Ideas : Instrument B/S Lot BANKNIFTY FUTS INITIA- TION BUY NIFTY FUTS SELL SL TAR- GET Sectors to watch Sector Name FMCG IT Outlook STABLE POSITIVE FII & DII activity (Rs. in Cr.) Category Amt MTD YTD FII (3651) (24891) DII PHARMA STABLE *FII & DII data as on 11th February 2016 Trade Stats NO OF CON- TRACTS TURNOVER IN CR IDXFUTS 4,83,203 23,568 IDXOPT 54,02,342 2,87,164 STKFUTS 7,48,885 32,842 1

2 Religare Super Ideas Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) Derivative Ideas Pair trade strategy: BANKNIFTY has strong support around levels and we are anticipating a bounce back from these levels. Strategy: BUY BANKNIFTY & SELL NIFTY 6980, DIFFERENCE , SL , TARGET Despite weakness in the benchmark, IGL is trading above its crucial averages. On Friday i.e. 12 February 2016, it bounced back sharply from 100 EMA level with rise in volume, indicating resumption of uptrend. BAJAJ-AUTO is facing stiff resistance at level, adding to it 2390 coincide with 200 EMA level on daily chart. Recent attempts to cross the above mentioned level went in vain, indicating weakness. Hence, traders can initiate sell position in the mentioned range. Investment Pick - SML Isuzu Limited SMLISUZU Scrip CMP Recommendation Price Target Duration SMLISUZU Months SML Isuzu Limited (SMLI) is engaged in the business of manufacturing Light commercial vehicles. The company manufactures buses, trucks and other customized vehicles like Ambulances, Prison van, Refrigerated van, etc. SML Isuzu is mainly concentrated in 5 to 12 tonnes GVW segment. Key investment rationales are investment plan, focus on niche segment, collaboration with Isuzu Motors and operational leverage benefits. 2

3 Corporate Action Calendar February 2016 (Cash Dividend) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat GAIL India Ltd Economic Calendar February 2016 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Wholesale Prices YoY 3

4 Result Calendar February CIMMCO LTD. Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat LOTUS EYE CARE HOSPITAL LTD. Nam Securities Ltd RAJESH SOLVEX LTD. REAL STRIPS LTD South India Projects Ltd Spaceage Products Ltd Sphere Global Services Ltd. STARLITE COMPONENTS LTD. VISHNU CHEMICALS LTD. 15 AAREY DRUGS & PHARMACEUTI- CALS LTD. AUTOPAL INDUSTRIES LTD. BOMBAY RAYON FASHIONS LTD. Capital Trade Links Ltd CURA TECHNOLOGIES LTD. EASTERN GASES LTD. ENCORE SOFTWARE LTD. HIRA AUTOMOBILES LTD. IB INFOTECH ENTERPRISES LTD. INDIA FINSEC LTD. INLAND PRINTERS LTD. JAINCO PROJECTS (INDIA) LTD. KANCO TEA & INDUSTRIES LTD. KANIKA INFOTECH LTD. LWS KNITWEAR LTD. Nakoda Limited POLYPLEX CORPORATION LTD. Quasar India Ltd SPECTRA INDUSTRIES LTD. STI INDIA LTD. 16 Linde India Limited Huhtamaki PPL Limited Signet Industries Limited STOVEC INDUSTRIES LTD. UPSURGE INVESTMENT & FINANCE LTD KSB PUMPS LTD. 19 Rain Industries Limited 20 4

5 Market Snapshot Sectoral Indices Performance Index Closing % Change % MTD % YTD NIFTY Auto 7, % -7.0% -14.3% NIFTY Bank 13, % -10.0% -17.4% NIFTY Energy 7, % -11.8% -12.5% Nifty Financial Services 5, % -9.6% -16.6% NIFTY FMCG 18, % -4.2% -9.2% NIFTY IT 10, % -8.1% -7.9% NIFTY Media 2, % -11.8% -17.3% NIFTY Metal 1, % -9.8% -18.1% NIFTY Pharma 11, % -5.7% -7.4% NIFTY PSU Bank 1, % -14.2% -31.3% NIFTY Realty % -15.9% -25.1% Top Gainers - Nifty Stock CMP (INR) % Chg % MTD % YTD IDEA % 6.3% -23.7% TATAMOTORS % -11.4% -23.8% BHARTIARTL % 12.0% -4.7% CAIRN % -2.6% -13.9% AXISBANK % -4.2% -12.9% Top Losers - Nifty Stock CMP (INR) % Chg % MTD % YTD BHEL % -24.7% -38.3% BPCL % -13.5% -13.4% ONGC % -14.6% -20.1% ADANIPORTS % -16.1% -31.8% PNB % -19.3% -36.3% Bulk Deals - NSE Delivery Spurt stocks Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price Value (in Cr.) Justdial Ltd. NORDEA EMERGING MARKET EQUITY SELL Housing Development and SHAASTRA SECURITIES TRADING PRIVATE SELL Housing Development and SHAASTRA SECURITIES TRADING PRIVATE BUY Unitech Ltd LIMITED AMRABATHI INVESTRA PRIVATE SELL Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd. RAKESH RAJKRISHAN AGARWAL SELL Sanco Industries Ltd. CHP FINANCE PVT LTD SELL Crest Ventures Limited FINE ESTATES PRIVATE LIMITED BUY Crest Ventures Limited MIRAJ MARKETING COMPANY LLP SELL MRO-TEK Limited JITENDRA VIRWANI BUY Unitech Ltd LIMITED AMRABATHI INVESTRA PRIVATE BUY *Bulk deals data as on February 11, 2016 Stock Name Day's del. Vol. Del. Vol. Price Kansai Nerolac 2,712, % 1.91% Axis Bank 15,873, % 3.69% Godfrey Phillips 63, % -1.60% Just Dial 1,271, % % Chola- 250, % 3.03% Phoenix Mills 433, % 0.74% IndusInd Bank 2,413, % 0.10% Jubilant Food. 659, % -9.27% Shrenuj & Co. 52, % -8.04% Maruti Suzuki 666, % 0.23% 5

6 Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 12 th February 16 Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`) HCL Technologies IT 10/29/ % 882* 798 PI Industries Fertilisers & Pesticides 7/23/ % Hero MotoCorp Auto 8/13/ % 2,660 2,489 Maruti Suzuki India Auto 9/8/ % 4,088 3,550 Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Financial Services 2/10/ % 163* 152 Bata India Consumer Goods 11/23/ % Cummins India Industrial Manufacturing 12/17/ % 1, Cash Cash 41.2% Total Total 100% *4.5% HCL Tech was bought at 983 6

7 Historical Performance as on 12 th February 16 Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception Religare Alpha -8.05% % % % 2.98% Nifty -7.05% % % % % Outperformance -1.00% -0.21% 2.38% 5.97% 14.44% 7

8 Research Product Basket For cash market trading Call / Product Call Frequency. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated Intraday Calls Intraday 2-3 < 1 day 25% Live / RMD Calls Daily days 30% Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15% Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2-3 months 20% Cash NA 10% Intraday Calls Live / RMD Calls Master Pick Religare Alpha Cash Total For 1L margin* Per Call 25,000 8,000 30,000 4,000 15,000 5,000 20,000 As per weightage These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls. 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day (including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that there will be 7-8 such open calls daily. This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month. This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio. 10,000 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive. For derivative market trading Call / Product Call Frequency. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated Derivative Ideas Daily days 40% Live calls Intraday / Daily days 50% Cash NA 10% Derivative Ideas Live Calls Cash For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client and their investment goals. The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls. It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only. Total For 1L margin* Per Call 40,000 40,000 50,000 50,000 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2 such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average. These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only. It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets. 10,000 8

9 Team Members Ajay Kumar Srivastava Ajay Pasari, CFA Ajit Mishra Ashish Bansal Gaurav Sharma Swati Saxena Manoj M Vayalar Vipin Kumar [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 9

10 Before you use this research report, please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under: Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest, compensation Research Analyst (RA) [Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below, are given separately] S.. Statement Answer I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance? Yes I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance? I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s). [Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above, are given below] Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any SS... Name(s) of RA. Signtures of RA Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer Yes. other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. 10