A Short Presentation of the E2C2 Project

Transcription

1 A Short Presentation of the E2C2 Project (Extreme Events, Causes and Consequences) Interdisziplinäres Kolloquium Komplexe Systeme Modellierung, Analyse und Simulation 11 January 2008, Bonn Christian Schölzel 1,2 1) Meteorological Institute at the University of Bonn Bonn, Germany 2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l Environnement (LSCE) Gif-sur-Yvette, France

2 Contents Overview of the E2C2 project The E2C2 project Extreme Events, Causes and Consequences 1 Introduction Aims and Scope Structure and Participants 2 Research Topics Work Packages WP 2 to WP 7 Work Packages WP 1 and WP 8 3 Discussion State of the Art Critics Appendix

3 Aims and Scope Making sense of extreme events Motivation Public interest in extreme events Making sense of extreme events Not well described by conventional statistical methods Mathematical models of geophysical, climatic or socio-economic systems often not able to predict sudden, extreme events More common than conventional statistical analyses would suggest Key ideas Describe, understand, and predict extreme events Combine expertise in the theory of nonlinear and complex systems

4 Aims and Scope Describe, understand, and predict extreme events Main focus on two interacting areas Natural hazards, e.g., climatic extremes, earthquakes, floods, forest fires, landslides Socio-economic hazards, e.g., urban crises, crime waves, recessions, unemployment surges, financial market crashes Approaches Interactions between different time and space scales and different systems (climatic, bio-ecological, socio-economic) Deterministic, probabilistic, and hybrid prediction of extreme events Consequences of extreme events within coupled systems (natural, social, ecological)

5 Structure and Participants Overview Funding Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) of the European Commission Specific Targeted Research Project (STREP) NEST PATHFINDER initiative Tackling Complexity in Science 1,500,000 Euro over three years (03/05 03/08) Constitution 17 partners in 9 countries 72 scientists 6 scientific work packages

6 Structure and Participants Project management

7 Structure and Participants Scientific work packages dependencies

8 Work Package WP 2 Theoretical Developments Leader: M. Ghil (ENS, France), 35 participants Objectives Statistical and methodological background of extreme events Time series analysis / heavy-tailed PDF Time series to test the skill of analysis and prediction methods Library of existing methods for PDF and spectral estimation New statistical methods for estimation and prediction Time series modelling / self-organization Systems with delays Multivariate synchronization analysis Noise-induced effects Dynamics in networks with complex topology

9 Work Package WP 3 Extreme Climatic Events and Their Relation with Societal Changes Leader: P. Naveau (LSCE, France), 17 participants Objectives Statistical analysis of extreme climatic events w.r.t. different sources of climate variability (land use, greenhouse gas, volcanic activity,... ) Tasks Methodology developments* Extreme climate events in numerical simulations Extremes of observed precipitation in Belgium Sources of variability and volcano/climate connections

10 Work Package WP 3 Example: Modelling the full range of rainfall events Example: Modelling the full range of rainfall events Mixture Weibull GPD e-06 Mixture Weibull GPD 1e Univariate nonhomogeneous mixture distribution GPD and Gamma (Weibull after Frigessi et al. (2003)) f mix (r) = 1 1 wµ,τ (r) fγ(α,β) (r) Z {z } Gamma weight {z } Gamma pdf + w µ,τ (r) {z } GPD weight {z } GPD f G(σ,ξ) (r, u = 0)

11 Work Package WP 4 Climatic Effects on Economic Crises (1) Leader: S. Hallegatte (SMASH/CIRED, France), 8 participants Objectives Develop econometric growth models in order to assess economic damages due to climate change State of the art Disequilibrium in long-term growth models is assumed to be transient and for a short period of time w.r.t. the time step of the model with negligible impacts on the steady state The influence of climate extremes upon economy mainly involves short-term disequilibrium processes

12 Work Package WP 4 Climatic Effects on Economic Crises (2) Production Tasks New model, able both to simulate long-term trajectories over more than one century and to capture short-term disequilibrium Validation on extreme event data To assess the consequences due to climate change Investment Π n/(p K) Price Real wage Employment rate Π n/(p K) ν Time (years)

13 Work Package WP 5 Temporal Scaling and Extremes in Hydrology, Wind, Fires, and Landslides Leader: B. Malamud (UK), 13 participants Objectives Temporal scaling and extremes in natural hazards, including hydrology, wind, fires, and landslides: Tasks Clustering and long-range persistence The increase of risk in natural hazards due to long-range persistence Extreme events within the hydrological cycle: long-time aspects and anthropogenic impact

14 Work Package WP 6 Monitoring Earthquakes and Related Environmental Hazards Leader: A. Soloviev (MITPAN, Russia), 23 participants Objectives Develop mathematical models of seismic processes in order to improve intermediate- and short-term earthquake prediction algorithms

15 Work Package WP 7 Socio-Economic Barometer Leader: A. Soloviev (MITPAN, Russia), 10 participants Objectives To develop a socio-economic barometer : Methodology, algorithms, and software for forecasting crises (or stable development) in socio-economic urban systems Tasks Premonitory patterns of macro- and microindicators, symptoms of approaching extreme events Homicides in NYC GTAAO

16 Structure and Participants Project management

17 Work Package WP 1 Project Management, Review and Assessment Leader: M. Ghil (ENS, France) Objectives Responsible for the overall management and coordination of E2C2 Tasks Communication between the European Commission and E2C2 Communication and collaboration between the E2C2 partners Assessment of the scientific outcomes by the Scientific Advisory Board...

18 Work Package WP 8 Dissemination Leader: P. Yiou (LSCE, France) Objectives Overall exploitation and dissemination Tasks Optimise the outcome of the research within the project Deliver knowledge to the user community (website, electronic news letters, open workshops)

19 Results What has been achieved so far? Positive aspects of E2C2 Interdisciplinary approach Good interaction (partners/participants) Spread of methodological knowledge Results Collaborative publication activity Special Issue of Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Open-Conference at the Ecole Normale Supérieur, Paris, France (26 28 th March 2008)

20 Critics What do we learn from E2C2? Open questions Project aims? Beyond methodology? Transfer to the public?

21 Navigation The E2C2 Project - Extreme Events, Causes and Consequences R2D2 / E2C2 1 Introduction Aims and Scope Structure and Participants 2 Research Topics Work Packages WP 2 to WP 7 Work Packages WP 1 and WP 8 3 Discussion State of the Art Critics Appendix Any resemblance to real persons or robots, living or dead, is purely coincidental.