Presentation to Nielsen Global Client Council

Transcription

1 Entertainment Internet CableTV/DBS Presentation to Nielsen Global Client Council Spencer Wang Head of US Internet & Media October 18, 2012 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Table of Contents Overview: The Big Picture Two Themes Over-the-Top (OTT): The Innovator s Dilemma & Pay TV Audience Fragmentation to the Nth Degree What s a Media Company to Do? Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 2

3 The Times They Are a Changin The New Video Supply Chain Era Content Creation Content Packaging Content Distribution User Interface End User Hollywood Studios Independent Producers Broadcast Networks Movie Theaters Broadcast TV Stations Movie Screen Television Viewers/ Consumers Cable Networks Cable MSO s PC (Including HBO) Blockbuster/VCR DBS DVD/Retailers Today/Future User Generated Content Semi-Professional Content Other Traditional Media Content Google Amazon Apple Facebook Netflix RBOC s The Internet Mobile Devices Microsoft Hulu Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 3

4 E 2013E 2014E 2015E U.S. Home Video spending The Internet: Coming Soon to a TV Near You Penetration Trends for Internet-Based Technologies, E 90% 80% 70% Internet User Penetration of US Population (% ) 60% 50% 40% Broadband HH Penetration (% ) Smartphone Penetration of Mobile Users (% ) Connected TV's/Blu-Ray HH Penetration (% ) 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: US Census data, SNL Kagan, BMI Research, Euromonitor, Credit Suisse estimates. Note: Connected TVs and Blu-ray HH s include only HH with activated devices used to access professional content. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 4

5 Table of Contents Overview: The Big Picture Two Themes Over-the-Top (OTT): The Innovator s Dilemma & Pay TV Audience Fragmentation to the Nth Degree What s a Media Company to Do? Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 5

6 A Complex, Byzantine Ecosystem Eyeballs Advertising $ s (Local) Consumer Spending $ s Programs Viewers/ Consumers/ Subscribers 1. Eyeballs 2. Subscr. $ s Programs Eyeballs U.S. Television Industry Structure Advertisers Eyeballs Advertising $ s (National) Source: Credit Suisse. Eyeballs Advertising $ s (Local) Advertising $ s (National) Eyeballs Programs Cable MSO/ DBS / Telco Cable Networks Broadcast Networks 2. Cash for Retrans 1. Eyeballs Programs 2. Affiliate Fee $ s Programs License Fee $ s* Programs Programs 1. Eyeballs License Fee $ s* Content Creators/ Syndicators Eyeballs License Fee $ s Programs TV Stations Key: Content Creator (i.e. Warner Bros., 20 th Century Fox) Content Packager (i.e. CBS, MTV, ESPN, ABC, TNT) Content Distributor (i.e., Comcast, DirecTV, Verizon, CBS) Viewers/Consumers/Subscribers Advertisers * Syndicators also receive barter ad revenue. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 6

7 Over the Top: The New World Order? Consumer Spending $ s Viewers/ Consum ers/ Subscribers Broadband Connection for Subscr. $s DBS Left Out: TV Stations Advertisers The Internet Cloud Broadband Connection Cable MSO/ Telco Multiple Rev. Streams Google/ YouTube Am azon Apple Netflix Key: 1. $ s for Programs Broadcast Networks/ Hulu Cable Networks Content Creators/ Syndicators Eyeballs/Queries for Ad $ s for Programs Programs for Discrete Payments Programs for Subscription Fees * Syndicators also receive barter ad revenue. Source: Credit Suisse. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 7

8 MCV Net Adds (000) U.S. Pay TV Subs have Declined in 4 of Past 8 Quarters Total U.S. MCV Subscriber Net Adds, 1Q08-1Q12 1, Pay TV subs decline for 1 st time in US history in 2Q10 and have declined in 5 of the past 9 quarters (200) (400) (600) (119) (59) (215) (459) (411) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Source: Company data, SNL Kagan, and Credit Suisse estimates. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 8

9 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MCV Y/Y Net Adds (mil) Y/Y % Growth MCV Y/Y Growth Decelerating & Essentially Zero Y/Y % Growth in MCV Subs, 1Q05-1Q12 To strip out the impact of seasonality, we believe it is also relevant to look at MCV subs on a yearover-year basis % 3.0% 2.5% % 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5 (0.5%) MCV Y/Y Net Adds MCV Subs Y/Y % Growth Source: Company data, SNL Kagan, and Credit Suisse estimates. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 9

10 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Occupied Homes (mil) MCV Penetration More Than the Housing Market: MCV Penetration Declining U.S. Occupied Homes vs. MCV Penetration, 1Q09-1Q % 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% Occupied Homes MCV Penetration Source: U.S. Census, SNL Kagan, and Credit Suisse estimates. Spencer Wang

11 Pay TV Built on Sustaining Technologies: More Channels Time Period Late 1970s Mid- 1990s Late 1990s Early 2000s Mid- 2000s Late- 2000s Early 2010s Technology Basic Cable DBS Digital Cable Video on Demand DVR * High Definition 3D Value Network More channels Better picture quality in mountainous regions More channels Digital picture quality More channels Digital picture quality More content choices Time shifting Time shifting High-def picture quality More channels Three dimensional picture More channels Source: SNL Kagan, Credit Suisse. Note: While Tivo was launched in the late 1990 s/early 2000, cable/dbs operators did not launch DVR s until several years later. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 11

12 The Disconnect Between Channels Available vs. Viewed Avg. No. of TV Channels Receivable vs. Viewed per Adult, Why do I pay for channels I don t watch? channels and nothings on! Avg. No. of Channels Receivable per Home # of channels viewed /adult over 1 week # of channels viewed /adult over 4 week Source: TV Dimensions and Nielsen. Excludes video on demand. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 12

13 Y/Y % Change Pay TV ARPU Growth Easily Outstripping Inflation Y/Y % Change in Pay TV ARPU vs. U.S. CPI and Core CPI, % 14% 12% Pay TV Video ARPU Growth > U.S. CPI and Core CPI in 16 of last 17 Years 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% (2)% Pay TV ARPU U.S. CPI Core CPI Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates. * Pay TV ARPU excludes advertising. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 13

14 Pay TV ARPU per Channel Receivable/Viewed per Home Growing Gap in Price per Channel Available vs. Viewed Price per TV Channel Available per Home vs. Viewed, $2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $1.01 $1.36 $1.51 $1.54 $1.35 $1.41 $1.72 $1.84 $1.86 $1.89 Price per Channel Available Decreasing but Price per Channel Viewed Increasing $0.60 $0.40 $0.64 $0.60 $0.60 $0.58 $0.57 $0.59 $0.59 $0.55 $0.55 $0.57 $0.20 $ ARPU per Channel Receivable ARPU per Channel Viewed per Month Source: SNL Kagan, TV Dimensions, Credit Suisse estimates. * Pay TV ARPU excludes advertising. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 14

15 Streaming has the Hallmarks of a Disruptive Technology Disruptive Technologies: Bring to market a different value proposition than what was available before Underperforms established products in mainstream markets BUT have other features that a few fringe customers value Factor Netflix Stream ing Pay TV Lower Price $8/mo.* + broadband for $60/mo. = $68/mo. $70/mo. Video ARPU + broadband $45 = $115/ mo. Convenience Multi-platform access and mobility TV only until TV Everywhere widely available Simplicity/Navigation Recommendation Engine Interactive Program Guide Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. * This is Netflix s lowest price plan but includes unlimited streaming. HD broadcast channels can also be viewed over-air for free with HD tunes embedded in new TV sets since Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 15

16 The Good Enough Concept The Good Enough Concept: What consumers value has changed with low price, simplicity, convenience, and flexibility growing in importance relative to other attributes such as abundance of features and sheer, raw performance. While good enough may not be for everybody, some segment of the market may trade the latter set of qualities for the former set of attributes. Example Benefit Trade-Off Skype Free Calls Voice Quality and Reliability Netbooks Cheaper, More Portable Features and Performance Pure Digital Flip Video Camera Cheap, Simple to Use Resolution and Features News from Blogs Free, Accessible, Fast In-depth journalism Netflix Streaming Source: Wired and Credit Suisse. Cheap, All-You-Can-Eat, Simple to Use, Multiple Device Access Content choices (sports), initial broadcast window, video quality Spencer Wang

17 TV Viewing Hours per Person per Day Good Enough: Disruption Starts at the Fringes TV Viewing Hours per Person per Day by Quintile, OTT is not a perfect substitute for pay TV may be the right answer to the wrong question. The key is do streaming services satisfy what consumers want? I II III IV V Avg. Heaviest Viewing Quintile Lightest Source: TV Dimensions, Credit Suisse estimates Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 17

18 % of Non-Pay TV Respondents Price the Leading Reason for Not Subscribing to Pay TV Ranking Reasons for Not Subscribing to Pay TV 50% 45% 50% 40% 35% 30% 25% 23% 23% 22% 20% 15% 16% 14% 10% 5% 2% Too expensive Use Netflix/Hulu/Youtube, etc. as a substitute Other reasons Don t watch a lot of TV Just watch broadcast TV* Don t find TV channels on PayTV compelling Don t like the user interface Source: Credit Suisse Future of Video Survey 2011 * Using over-the-air signals Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 18

19 % Penetration of Sample OTT: Not Black or White, Shades of Grey Survey Respondents Profile 100% No TV/Broadcast TV 90% 80% 70% Pay TV + Premium TV 12% OTT Only 20% 60% 50% 40% 30% 68% 27% 1% 12% Pay TV + Premium TV + OTT Pay TV + OTT 100% 20% 10% Pay TV Premium TV OTT No TV Total Source: Credit Suisse Future of Video Survey 2011 Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 19

20 % of FY2011 EBIT Important 2 nd Derivative Issues for Media Cos./Cable Nets Composition of FY10 EBIT, FY10 120% 100% 80% 59% 55% Cable Networks 60% 76% 100% 119% 40% 7% 19% Studio 20% 34% 22% 26% Other 0% 3% 9% (9)% 0% (19)% (20)% DIS TWX VIAB DISCA* NWSA Source: Credit Suisse, Google images. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 20

21 The So-What: Worrisome Cable Networks EBITDA declines substantially given lower affiliate and ad revenue from fewer subscribers, which is also enhanced by operating leverage. Networks that own copyrights to their original content better positioned On the positive side, studio revenue may rise substantially as cable networks may not have leverage to pay less for licensed content while new entrants add incremental revenues To be clear, in this scenario, the risk is not the value of content (which studios will continue to get paid for) but rather potential disruption for TV networks. The problem for entertainment conglomerates is: Cable network profit dollars are substantially bigger than studio profit dollars The Street applies a higher multiple to cable network assets Thus, net impact on diversified entertainment conglomerates is net negative Source: Credit Suisse estimates. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 21

22 Just Say No?: The Prisoners Dilemma Don t Sell Content to NFLX Media Co. Y Sell Content to NFLX Don t Sell Content to NFLX Limits NFLX s consumer value proposition and protects against long term OTT risk for the industry Media Co. Y maximizes near term profits, which could place some media competitors at a financial disadvantage. Media Co. X Sell Content to NFLX Media Co. X maximizes near term profits, which could place some media competitors at a financial disadvantage. NFLX subs and financial power will scale and long term risk for the industry rises substantially Source: Credit Suisse estimates. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 22

23 Households (mil) % Connected Device Penetration of Total TV HH Television is the Next Frontier for the Internet Internet-Connected TV HH and Penetration of Total TV HH, E % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total TVHH Total Connectable TV Dev ices Total Connectable TV Dev ice Penetration Source: SNL Kagan, The Future of 3D and Internet TV, June Note: Connected devices include Internet connectable TVs and Blu- Ray players. These estimates do not reflect activation rates of connected devices. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 23

24 Movement Toward Infinite Choice Started 60 Years Ago Video Distribution Technology OTA 1 Broadcast Analog Cable DBS 2 / Digital Cable Broadband Infinite Choice Era of Dominance 1950 s s 1980 s- Mid 90s Mid 90s- Today The Future Avg. No. of Channels per Platform Infinite Total No. of Channels Available Infinite Source: 1 OTA = Over the Air. 2 DBS = Direct Broadcast Satellite. Source: Credit Suisse Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 24

25 Channels Receivable per Home Weekly Set Usage per Home So What Happened? The TV Case Study Over 6 Decades TV Usage Rose ~1%/Year with More Choice Avg. No. of Channels Receivable per Home Weekly Set Usage per Home (Hrs.) Source: Media Dynamics and Credit Suisse. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 25

26 Hours per Week Audiences Fragmented, As We Know Channels Available TV Usage Did Not Rise as Fast as No. of Channels Weekly Set Usage per Home (Hrs.) Time Spent per Channel Viewed Weekly (Hrs.) Resulting in Audience Fragmentation Source: Media Dynamics and Credit Suisse. *Time Spent per Channel Viewed no longer reported. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 26

27 Potential Implications of Internet Enabled TV s Internet Enabled TVs Increased Supply of Content Potential Impact Audience Fragmentation to the Nth Degree More Competition for Eyeballs More Ad Inventory Potential Implication Ad revenue growth shifts to Long Tail and growth slows for incumbents Increased Programming Costs While consumer demand and usage of Internet TV is unclear, there are a lot of risks for media companies. More Traction for TV Ad Exchanges Pressure on advertising pricing Source: Credit Suisse. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 27

28 Online Display Ecosystem Likely to Come to Television Core Display Advertising Value Chain Ad Network Information & Content Advertiser Ad Agency Supply Side Platform Publisher User Demand Side Platform Ad Exchange Data Exchanges & DMPS Data Suppliers Eyeballs/Clicks/Actions Ad $ s Behavioral Offline to Re-targeting Search Hybrid Online Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 28

29 Table of Contents Overview: The Big Picture Two Themes Over-the-Top (OTT): The Innovator s Dilemma & Pay TV Audience Fragmentation to the Nth Degree What s a Media Company to Do? Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 29

30 TV Everywhere/Authentication Needs to Move Faster Authenticated Cable Programming Content Availability Comcast (1) Time Warner, Inc. Walt Disney CMCSA/ News CBS Turner HBO ESPN Other Cable NBCU VIAB Corp. (6) DISCA SNI (Showtime) Starz Limited Trial TWC Cablevision DISH (2) Limited Trial Limited Trial Limited Trial DIRECTV (3) AT&T Verizon Charter (4) Cox (5) (1) Xfinity also has other unauthenticated content through Hulu. (2) Using a Sling box ($99), DISH s subscribers can get access to all of the live and recorded content included in their subscription on an Internet-connected device. (3) DTV also offers NFL Sunday Ticket-to-Go. (4) Charter has mainly TV Everywhere trials. (5) Turner (TNT/TBS) is a test for Cox. (6) While NWSA supports Authentication, it does not at this time have any long term agreements in place. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 30

31 Total Rev-Wgt'd % of Total Day Programming Grow Original Programming (Control Your Own Destiny) Total Net Revenue-Weighted Percent of Original vs. Acquired Programming, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 41% 59% 71% 29% 91% 9% 68% 32% 95% 94% 5% 6% 19% 81% 56% 57% 44% 43% TWX VIAB DIS NWSA DISCA SNI AMCX CMCSA A&E Networks 66% 34% Average Rank* DISCA 1 SNI 2 DIS 3 VIAB 4 NWSA 5 A&E Networks 6 CMCSA 7 TWX 8 AMCX 9 Rev. Wgt'd % Original Programming Rev. Wgt'd % Original Programming Source: Credit Suisse estimates, Kantar Media, Nielsen. Caveats: Repeats of originals count as original programming; Sports counts as original although the rights are acquired. TWX excludes HBO programming. * Revenue weighted percent of programming that is original. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 31

32 Wide Content Availability May Blunt Authentication Impact Content Availability: Authentication vs. Netflix vs. Hulu vs. Amazon Prime TWX DIS CMCSA/NBCU NWS CBS Turner HBO ESPN Other Cable ABC Bcast Cable* NBC Bcast VIAB FOX Bcast Cable DISCA SNI CBS Bcast Showtime Starz Authentication N/A N/A N/A N/A Netflix Hulu Amazon Prime Instant Video Note: Check marks denote that some full TV episodes are available for streaming on Netflix, Hulu and/or on an Authenticated basis. N/A = Not Applicable. * Comcast/NBCU cable content on Hulu is primarily clips. Source: Company websites and Credit Suisse. Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 32

33 Thus, Take a Disciplined Approach in Licensing to OTT Some Thoughts on Guidelines: Keep deals short-term: This maintains flexibility Deals Should be Non-exclusive: Encourages competition among OTT providers Types of Content: Serialized dramas less risky Appropriate windowing could limit cannibalization Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 33

34 Technology Can Also be a Good Thing: HBO Opportunity HBO Authenticated Over The Top Cable DBS Telco Digital Affiliates (e.g. Apple, Amazon, Google, etc.) HBO Direct to Consumer PC Mobile Devices (ipad) Internet- Enabled TVs Mobile Devices (ipad) Video Game Consoles (Xbox, PS3, Wii) Blu-ray Players Internet- Enabled TVs Subscribers Who All Pay $15/Month Irrespective of Distribution Platform Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 34

35 Alternative HBO Distribution Models: Pros & Cons Distribution Model Potential Benefits Potential Risks HBO Go Reduce churn Least disruptive - protects relationships with existing distributors (MSOs, DBS, Telcos) May not drive incremental subscriptions due to continued basic cable buy through requirement Digital Affiliates Financially beneficial - higher wholesale rate Possible increase in subscribers as no cable buy through requirement No related incremental costs (SAC/billing/customer service etc.) Resistance/backlash from existing distributors (MSOs, DBS, Telcos) To a lesser extent, may encourage cord cutting, which could hurt the Turner basic cable networks Direct-to- Consum er Financially beneficial HBO could capture a larger share of the monthly retail rate Possible increase in subscribers as no cable buy through requirement Resistance/backlash from existing distributors (MSOs, DBS, Telcos) Incremental costs (SAC/billing/customer service etc.) To a lesser extent, may encourage cord cutting, which could hurt the Turner basic cable networks Spencer Wang spencer.wang@credit-suisse.com 35

36 Thank You! Spencer Wang

37 Disclosures

38 Disclosures Companies Mentioned (Price as of 27 Jul 12) Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN, $237.42, OUTPERFORM, TP $270.00) Apple Inc. (AAPL, OUTPERFORM, TP ) AT&T (T, $37.14, OUTPERFORM, TP $36.50) Cablevision (CVC, $15.07) Charter Communications (CHTR, $76.35, OUTPERFORM, TP $74.00) Comcast (CMCSA, $32.30, NEUTRAL, TP $32.00) Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA, $52.02, NEUTRAL, TP $53.00) DISH Network Corp. (DISH, $30.97, OUTPERFORM, TP $34.00) Netflix Inc. (NFLX, $58.92, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $100.00) News Corporation (NWSA, $23.37, NEUTRAL, TP $20.00) The Directv Group Inc (DTV, $49.41, NEUTRAL, TP $55.00) Time Warner Cable (TWC, $84.47, OUTPERFORM, TP $92.00) Time Warner, Inc (TWX, $38.98, OUTPERFORM, TP $45.00) Verizon (VZ, $44.90, NEUTRAL, TP $45.00) Viacom (VIAB, $46.78, NEUTRAL, TP $51.00) Walt Disney Company (DIS, $49.92, OUTPERFORM, TP $50.00) Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures I, Spencer Wang, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names. 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