CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET

Transcription

1 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Healthy end to 215 for Chicago office market Steady increases across all sectors is expected into 216 Amid the overall job and economic recovery, Chicago office growth rebounded at the end of 215. Construction proceeded at a slow pace throughout the year, leading to positive absorption and reducing the accumulation of vacant space left from the scares of the past recession. Both 214 and 215 saw favorable long-term deals for tenants that could afford to relocate and take advantage of the lower-than-average rental rates and higherthan-average landlord concessions. At the start of 216, good fundamentals, including falling unemployment rates, low interest rates and higher office absorption bode well for commercial property owners. Landlords are expected to continue to increase rental rates over the next 12 months. Many major investors are expected to jump into the office property market in 216 while interest rates remain relatively low; thus, building sales prices and sales volume are expected to reach record-breaking levels. OFFICE TRENDS 5-YEAR TREND CURRENT QUARTER 15.5% Vacancy steadily decreasing 1,813,747 SF Positive absorption doubled qtr to qtr ECONOMY Unemployment steady The Chicago unemployment rate has fallen for four consecutive quarters and ended November 215 at 5.2% for Chicago Metro (Chicago-Naperville- Arlington Heights, IL, Metro Division). This was a slight increase quarter over quarter but has fallen year over year and still remains lower than prerecession levels. Drivers of Chicago office space, Educational/Health Services and Professional/Business Services had a 2.4% increase year over year, while all occupations listed as Other Services posted a 3.5% increase and construction increased by 6.4% year over year. SUPPLY AND DEVELOPMENT Development pipeline full River Point (444 W. Lake St.), Fulton West (133 W. Fulton St.) and 15 N. Riverside continue construction totaling 3.5 million SF that will hit the market in 216/217. There are currently 2 office buildings proposed for River North, River West and West Loop, which would add a whopping 11 million SF of office space to downtown Chicago. However, it is unlikely that even 25% of these buildings will break ground in the next five years, leaving fundamentals for existing property owners trending in their favor as tenants compete for existing space. RENTAL RATE $23.6 PSF Rental rates stable UNDER CONSTRUCTION AVERAGE SALE PRICE JOB GROWTH 3.5 million SF Next major building delivering in 216 $ PSF Sales averages declined 5.2% Chicago unemployment rose slightly

2 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE METRO CHICAGO UNITED STATES 12% 1% 8% 4% DEMAND Net absorption highest in final quarter Net absorption overall reached a record peak in the fourth quarter of 215 at 1.8 million SF; more tenants settled into space during the last three months of the year than in all three previous quarters combined. Total positive absorption has not reached this level since 27. The CBD saw the lion s share of activity, posting more than 1.4 million SF of positive absorption with a majority of the tenants moving into Class A space. Tech had the most impact on absorption with occupations of Google at 1 W. Fulton St. and Groupon at 6 W. Chicago Ave. However, law firm Grant Thornton also made an impact by moving into its 124, SF space at 161 N. Clark St. CAP RATES 9% 8% 7% METRO CHICAGO UNITED STATES Vacancy rates continue to fall The Chicago metro vacancy rate decreased another 5 basis points to 15.5% quarter over quarter. Both CBD and suburban activity contributed to the decrease; CBD dropped 8 basis points to 12.% and the suburbs dropped 3 basis points to 19.4%. It is expected that vacancy will continue to tighten in the first two quarters of 216 prior to new inventory reaching the market YEAR-OVER-YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Total Nonfarm Trade, transportation and utilities Professional & Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure & hospitality Government Construction Information U.S. Mining & Logging Financial Activities CHICAGO Manufacturing Other Services RENTAL RATES Rental rates inch higher at year-end Gross asking rates in the Chicago area topped $23. PSF at the end of the year. The CBD average asking rate reached more than $3. to $3.27 overall. Contributing to this is the steady rent increase in all classes but particularly in top Class A buildings; both the popular West Loop and River North submarkets have seen Class A rents averaging more than $4 PSF. Suburban submarkets also experienced a quarter-to-quarter rent increase of $.19 overall, to $18.8 PSF. The O Hare submarket continues to post the highest suburban asking rates at $2.34 overall. Metro Chicago Office Market Indicators PROPERTY CLASS INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q4 NET YTD NET DIRECT SUBLET TOTAL AVERAGE RATE PSF Class A 157,51,376 3,55,464 1,379,489 2,12, %.7% 15.% $26.35 Class B 1,668,42 391, , % 1.2% 17.% $23.12 Class C 24,622,988 42,522 11, %.3% 12.% $19.69 Metro Chicago Total 282,342,46 3,55,464 1,813,747 2,546, % 15.5% $23.6 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

3 INVESTMENT MARKET Record high volume Despite the shaky global economic fundamentals, the U.S. remains a stable haven for investment dollars. Although feared that the influx of stability-hungry investors has over-inflated building prices in Chicago, high absorption and rental rate increases are supporting activity. Chicago reached more than $8.5 billion in sales in 215; over 57% of the investors for these Chicago transactions were institutional investors. The most notable CBD trade was the pending $712-millionsale of Aon Center at 2 W. Randolph St. ($264 PSF). Other major trades were 1 N. Dearborn selling to Beacon Capital partners for $229 PSF and 333 N. Wacker Dr. selling to PNC Realty for $369 PSF. Although cap rates are lower than in previous investment booms, it is expected that investors are managing less over-inflated return on their investments. The profitability outlook is still improving despite the inevitable rise in interest rates. The U.S. Central Bank voted to raise its benchmark interest rate to between.25% and.5%. This has signaled that the Federal Reserve will gradually wean the economy off the historic stimulus. The fear of the unknown has subsided and investors will continue to purchase in Chicago OUTLOOK Tenants will begin to pay the price Shrinking office supply is creating landlord leverage for lease negotiation. Tenants can expect a higher level of amenities in office space in Chicago than they have in the past 1 years, but they will pay a premium for those luxuries. Investors can expect less return on investment up front, as they are spending more money to raise the quality of the asset to stay competitive. Investors are looking to Chicago for long-term asset growth. However, well-funded investors, such as Beacon Capital Partners which purchased 3 S. Wacker Dr., have been making improvements over the past year in hopes to turn a significant profit quickly. In 216/217, it is expected that construction in Chicago will be tempered by the rising cost of land and trepidation of riskier, large office developments. A few mid-rise buildings will follow the West Loop, Class A 5-story buildings currently under construction, especially as the way users occupy office space continues to evolve. Office tenants in the year 2 occupied an average of 253 PSF per employee; today we occupy 225 PSF and are on pace to reduce that footprint to 138 PSF per employee by 22. Smaller constructions in Chicago may fill the demand for absorption in the near term. METRO CHICAGO NET AND NET MILLION SF 2. 2% % % 12% -.5 1% -1. 8% % METRO CHICAGO AVERAGE ASKING RENTAL RATES CLASS A CLASS B CLASS C $35 $3 $25 $2 $ METRO CHICAGO DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE MILLION SF CONSTRUCTIONS COMPLETED PRELEASED AVAILABLE 5m 4m 3m 2m 1m REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

4 CBD MARKET CBD vacancy lowest ever Will the market continue to tighten? Downtown Chicago had a transformative year with major construction on public transportation infrastructure as well as riverfront public spaces and additional parks. Additionally, office construction was on the rise. As noted previously, 444 W. Lake and 15 N. Riverside will complete construction over the next year. However, it is questionable if a fourth or fifth office tower can be supported in the current market. On the plus side, the CBD market ended the fourth quarter with an overall vacancy of 12.%, the lowest vacancy recorded since the beginning of the recession in 27. Absorption had cumulatively doubled in the final quarter of the year with more than 1.47 million SF of positive absorption in the CBD alone. Developers have leaned toward landing a major tenant before beginning construction on a large office building. The potential bad news, however, is that there are many small- to mid-rise buildings proposed for the outliers of the core central business district. These conversions of old, industrial buildings to new, creative lofts may attract tenants that otherwise would have considered Class B spaces within the traditional CBD. Also, as suburban property quality rebounds, downtown may lose potential tenants to the suburban areas. CBD NET AND NET MILLION SF 2. 18% %.5 12% 1% -.5 8% % CBD AVERAGE ASKING RENTAL RATES CLASS A CLASS B CLASS C $5 $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $ REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

5 For 216, all signs point to a continuing tightening of the market before major construction is occupied in the West Loop. River North continues to be the tightest market with a notable drop in vacancy from 9.% in 3Q15 to 7.7% in 4Q15. The West Loop also dropped significantly over the same time period, from 12.5% to 11.9%. In River West, the only new Class A construction was occupied by the majority of its preleased tenants in the fourth quarter, driving down vacancy in this submarket, as well. As new projects deliver to the market, there is less likelihood for significant pockets of empty or shadow space, at least in the near term. In 216, it is expected that new signings will absorb more than 5% of the shadow space in Class A buildings left by major tenant movement to new constructions. THIRD QUARTER SELECT LEASE ACTIVITY TENANT PROPERTY SIZE (SF) TYPE Mayer Brown LLP 71 S Wacker Dr 265, Renewal WeWork 125 S Clark St 112, New Holland & Knight 131 S Dearborn St 14, Renewal VelocityEHS 222 Merchandise Mart 91, Sublet IBM Corporation 71 S Wacker Dr 79,348 Renewal SEC 175 WJackson Blvd 76,65 Renewal Clark Hill PLC 13 E Randolph St 71,813 New GrubHub, Inc 111 W Washington St 57, Renewal & Expansion Valence Health 3 S Riverside Plz 52,727 Sublet The American Academy of Art 332 S Michigan Ave 51,78 Renewal Husch Blackwell LLP 12S Riverside plz 5,956 New McGarry Bowen 515 N State St 49,521 Renewal Coyne College 1 N State St 47,38 New North American Company Life & Health 525 W Van Buren St 41,67 Renewal W Merchandise Mart 41,46 Expansion Balyasny 444 W Lake Street 41, Relocation Harrison Street Capital 444 W Lake Street 4, Relocation Avant 222 N LaSalle 4, Expansion National Collegiate Scouting Assoc N. Kingsbury St 38, Relocation & Expansion KPMG 2 E Randolph Street 34, Expansion Cumulus 455 N Cityfront Plaza 33,587 Relocation BDO 33 N Wabash 33, Relocation Pandora Media 13 E Randolph St 32,331 New Amazon 227 W Monroe St 3, New DowJones 1 S Wacker Dr 3, Renewal Skender Construction 133 W Fulton 3, Relocation Load Delivered 64 N Lasalle St 23, New THIRD QUARTER SELECT SALE ACTIVITY PROPERTY SIZE (SF) SALE PRICE PSF BUYER 1 N Dearborn 881,679 $22,, $229 Beacon Capital Partners 333 W Wacker Dr 867,821 $32,5, $369 PNC Realty Investors Inc 2 W Adams St 677,222 $168,25, $248 Gerding Edlen 1 N Franklin St 617,592 $22,82,248 $327 NYSCRF 271 N Southport Ave 188,4 $1,6, $56 Shapack Development 82 W Jackson Blvd 174,543 $18,, $13 Crayton Advisors 144 N Dayton St 167,9 $7,562,5 $45 E&A Parking LLC 85 W Jackson Blvd 15,423 $35,5, $337 Crayton Advisors 86 W Evergreen Ave 11,696 $21,5, $211 R2 Companies REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

6 SUBURBAN MARKET Suburbs hold their own Many small absorptions temper large HQ moves Despite many announcements of companies leaving the suburbs, the market actually experienced a turnaround in 215, particularly for Class A buildings where rent increased and vacancy decreased. Suburban vacancy dropped to 19.3% in 4Q15 from 19.7% in 3Q15. Activity is increasing for suburban buildings, but the current vacancy rate is still high compared to the1 range experienced pre-recession. Though there has been much activity among the 1,-2, SF tenants moving into suburban offices, these small move-ins are tempered by companies such as Navistar, which is looking to cut its 1.2-million-SF Lisle headquarters space in half by the end of 216. SUBURBAN NET AND NET MILLION SF 1. 25%.5 2% 15% -.5 1% -1. 5% % SUBURBAN AVERAGE ASKING RENTAL RATES CLASS A CLASS B CLASS C $3 Overall suburban rental rates have increased quarter over quarter by $.2 to $18.8 PSF. However, increases are occurring in well placed submarkets such as O Hare and the Northwest; all other suburban submarkets experienced decreases in rentals rate quarter over quarter. $25 $2 $15 $ A majority of the larger lease signings that occurred in the fourth quarter in the suburban outliers were renewals or relocations from existing suburban submarkets. Vacancy is expected to slowly decrease in suburban areas in 216 due to many new lease signing in in the 1,- 2, SF range. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

7 Buildings sales carried on the momentum gained in 3Q15. In the fourth quarter, notable sales included 625 N. River Rd. in Des Plaines ($218 PSF) and 35 Highland Pkwy in Downers Grove ($285 PSF). In a price-per-square-foot sales comparison, suburban Class A assets are on par with sought after Class B buildings downtown. As some well-positioned suburban buildings redevelop and sell for equivalent CBD prices, this should open up a larger gap in suburban quality and pricing. Eyes will be on the East West Corridor over the next few quarters as many major players have announced their departures from large office campuses. In addition to Navistar s plan to move out of 595, SF in Warrenville, OfficeMax vacated 354, in Naperville when it moved out of state and ConAgra Foods is moving 162, SF from Naperville into the Merchandise Mart in downtown Chicago. There is a trend of companies in suburban areas making major changes in order to return to a profitable margin in 216; this includes exiting office space. THIRD QUARTER SELECT LEASE ACTIVITY TENANT PROPERTY SIZE (SF) TYPE Verizon Wireless 171 Golf Rd, Rolling Meadows 159,8 Relocation & Expansion Plexus Corp 24 Millbrook Drive, Buffalo Grove 141, Renewal Horizon Pharma, Inc. 15 S Saunders Rd, Lake Forest 126,595 Relocation MultiPlan Inc 535 E Diehl Rd, Naperville 67,812 Renewal Donlen Corporation 3 Lakeside Dr, Bannockburn 64,814 New McGladrey & Pullen 2 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg 51,636 Renewal Direct Travel 2 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg 33,693 New Microsoft Corporation 325 Highland Pky, Downers Grove 29, Renewal Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union 184 Shuman Blvd, Naperville 25,93 New SG2 525 Old Orchard Rd, Skokie 25,35 Renewal Rail Europe Inc 135 E Touhy Ave, Des Plaines 23,543 Relocation Advocate Physician Partners 171 Golf Road, Rolling Meadows 23,68 PT&C Forensics 111 Deer Lake Rd, Deerfield 18, New Andres Medical Billing Ltd 3223 N Wilke Rd, Arlington Heights 16,718 New California Eastern Laboratories 1 Asbury Dr, Buffalo Grove 16, New Chase 111 E Busse Ave, Mount Prospect 14,781 Renewal Chicago Tile 2441 Warrenville Rd, Lisle 11,74 New Proteintech Group Inc 54 Pearl St, Rosemont 11,613 New Axion 2651 Warrenville Rd, Downers Grove 11,587 New Ericsson Inc. 13 E Woodfield Rd, Schaumburg 11,539 Renewal PMA 15 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg 1,42 New VNA Health Care 16 N Independence Blvd, Romeoville 1, New THIRD QUARTER SELECT SALE ACTIVITY PROPERTY SIZE (SF) SALE PRICE PSF BUYER 625 N River Rd, Des Plaines 38,36 $83,, $218 MDC Property Services Ltd JV Nicola Crosby 333 And 377 Butterfield Rd, Lombard 365,698 $44,, $12 Hamilton Partners JV Ballard Rehabilitation JV Millbrook Real Estate 2333 Waukegan Rd, Deerfield 331, $22,95, $69 GlenStar Properties JV Walton Street Capital 16 Golf Rd, Rolling Meadows 252,476 $16,, $63 16 Corporate Center LLC 35 Highland Pkwy, Downers Grove 251,229 $71,6, $285 Adventus RE Ptnrs 155 N Northwest Hwy, Park Ridge 225,637 $6,75, $3 Klairmont Enterprises 63 Dundee Rd, Northbrook 188,4 $3,2, $161 KBS Realty Advisors 115 S Wilke Rd, Arlington Heights 124, $4,7, $38 Imperial Realty Co 2355 Waukegan Rd, Deerfield 16,495 $4,5, $42 GlenStar Properties JV Walton Street Capital 1245 Corporate Blvd, Aurora 82, $4,975, $61 Aldi Inc REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

8 CBD Office Market Indicators SUBMARKET INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q4 NET YTD NET SF RATES DIRECT SUBLEASE DIRECT SUBLEASE OVERALL AVERAGE RATE PSF Class A 22,61, ,45 496,832 2,247,548 14, %.5% 1.7% $38.5 Class B 13,67,118 3, ,65 2,133,95 121, %.9% 17.3% $3.12 Class C 2,22,286 8,869 12,383 23, %.% 9.2% $24.25 Central Loop 37,33, , ,865 4,584,76 226, %. 12.9% $3.8 Class A 15,44,758 94, ,729 2,572,484 9, %.1% 16.8% $33.2 Class B 6,164,431 65,952 29,68 758,497 3,1 12.3%.1% 12.4% $28.37 Class C 3,792,24 33,656 62, ,783 16, %.4% 9.5% $24.1 East Loop 25,361, , ,775 3,675,764 28, %.1% 14. $28.53 Class A 1,345,358 14,497-8,495 1,68,75 3, 1.3%.% 1.4% $36.44 Class B 4,118,186 41,971 78,86 468,698 32, %.8% 12.2% $29.29 Class C 1,526,998 5,25 8, ,537 3,22 1.1%.2% 1.3% $24.79 N. Michigan Ave 15,99,542 61,673 5,942 1,691,985 38, % 1.8% $3.71 Class A 3,991,73 47,848 74, ,5 4, % 4.7% $41.77 Class B 1,975, ,695-5, ,42 58, %.5% 8.2% $28.52 Class C 2,681,999 15,123-48, ,296 16, %. 1.% $25.85 River North 17,648, ,666-23,945 1,279,721 79, %.5% 7.7% $32.5 Class A 689,67 36, ,917 64,96 9.4%.% 9.4% $39.5 Class B 2,172,637 12, ,567 35,991 3, %.2% 16.3% $24.57 Class C 1,776,786-35,72-1, ,695 9,47 1.1%.5% 1. $23.73 River West 4,638,49 336,91 166, ,646 13, %.3% 13.1% $29.27 Class B 77,38 3,485-1, , %.% 19.4% $26.41 Class C 1,64,656 4,791 28,81 45, %.% 4.3% $25.49 South Loop 1,771,964 8,276 26, ,88 1.3%.% 1.3% $25.95 Class A 33,439,615 2,32, ,734-23,188 3,358, ,31 1.% 1.2% 11.3% $4.79 Class B 12,629,256 4,579-28,388 1,565, , % 1.4% 13.8% $29.58 Class C 2,41,869-16,676-34, ,54 3, %.2% 9.4% $22.71 West Loop 48,479,74 2,32, ,637-86,275 5,147,24 598, % 11.9% $31.3 Class A 85,931,242 2,32,164 1,174,328 1,258,389 9,495, , %. 11.7% $38.29 Class B 49,834, ,18 92,63 6,26, , % 13.4% $28.12 Class C 15,455,618 15,266 18,52 1,41,555 49, %.3% 9.4% $24.4 DOWNTOWN 151,221,419 2,32,164 1,474,612 1,369,71 17,157,78 985, %.7% 12.% $3.27 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET Q

9 Suburban Office Market Indicators SUBMARKET INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q4 NET YTD NET SF RATES DIRECT SUBLEASE DIRECT SUBLEASE OVERALL AVERAGE RATE PSF Class A 13,187,336 72, ,394 2,398,588 69, %.5% 18.7% $21.41 Class B 1,146,357 49, ,798 1,873, , % 2.5% 21.% $17.2 Class C 1,445,774-1,384 7, ,83 7, % 17.1% $13.27 Eastern East West 24,779,467 12,174 47,419 4,512,22 331, % 1.3% 19.5% $19.8 Class A 9,613,614-3,99-76,36 1,43,211 4, %.4% 15.3% $2.97 Class B 9,29,154 2,297 91,8 1,376,28 42, % 4.5% 19.7% $16.77 Class C 1,479,379 1,93 4,68 142, % 9. $13.61 Western East West 2,122,147 18,318 2,12 2,948,62 443, % 2.2% 16.9% $18.49 Class A 18,788,37 78,71 939,317 3,819,11 148,56 2.3%.8% 21.1% $2.27 Class B 9,63,7-3,761 37,74 1,363,247 54, %. 14.7% $18.78 Class C 2,296,781 9,685 3, , % 9. $16.55 North Suburban 3,715,158 57,634 1,6,762 5,43,772 22, % 18.3% $19.79 Class A 2,88,87 753,3 7,546-96,468 3,826,796 22,82 19.% 1.1% 2.1% $2.12 Class B 12,662,16 2, ,138 2,923,517 52, %.4% 23.5% $16.72 Class C 1,637,222 14,294-19, ,353 14,5 16.7%.9% 17. $14.88 Northwest 34,388, ,3 42, ,919 7,23, , %.8% 21.3% $18.5 Class A 8,34,914 46,296 46,785 1,126,671 65, %.8% 14.3% $21.81 Class B 4,544,11 33,668-43,138 1,285,928 2,9 28.3%.1% 28.4% $18.86 Class C 791,476-1,547 1, ,755 1, %.2% 43.3% $13.14 O Hare 13,676,41 78,417 5,333 2,754,354 69, %.5% 2.7% $2.34 Class A 1,11,3 4,12-113, ,735 9, % 31.4% $21.43 Class B 4,821,794 13,82 83,69 92,172 7, 18.7%.1% 18.9% $15.36 Class C 1,516,738 4,278 4, , %.% 17.7% $13.73 South Suburban 7,439,562 22,2-25,166 1,58,119 16, %.2% 2.5% $16.57 Class A 71,12, ,3 25, ,959 12,938, , %.8% 19.% $21. Class B 5,833,483 16, ,5 9,724, , % 1.5% 2.7% $17.28 Class C 9,167,37 27,256 92,567 1,487,919 22, %.2% 16.5% $14.2 SUBURBAN 131,12, ,3 339,135 1,177,531 24,15,553 1,35, % 1.% 19.4% $18.8 Class A 157,51,376 3,55,464 1,379,489 2,12,348 22,433,595 1,92, %.7% 15.% $26.35 Class B 1,668,42 391, ,635 15,985,264 1,172, % 1.2% 17.% $23.12 Class C 24,622,988 42,522 11,619 2,889,474 72, %.3% 12.% $19.69 METRO CHICAGO 282,342,46 3,55,464 1,813,747 2,546,62 41,38,333 2,336, % 15.5% $23.6 CONTACT Sandy McDonald Director of Market Research [email protected] METHODOLOGY Inventory defined as existing Class A, B and C office properties, 2, square foot minimum rentable base area. Overall vacancy inclusive of direct and sublease space. Net absorption defined as the change in physical occupancy from one period to the next. Average asking rents are direct gross per square foot, per year. Inventory excludes all office properties that are 75% and above owner occupied, primarily medical or government owned. 2 West Madison Street, Suite 33 Chicago, Illinois 666 T F Copyright 216 Transwestern. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or distributed to third parties without written permission of the copyright owner. The information contained in this report was gathered by Transwestern from CoStar and other primary and secondary sources believed to be reliable. Transwestern, however, makes no representation concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any inaccuracy contained herein.