CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Transcription

1 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET Industrial Sector Growing A good year for industrial owners as activity continues to tick up Industrial property landlords are benefiting this year in Chicago from strong rent growth in many submarkets, tightening occupancies, and the largest gains in investments sales since the recession. INDUSTRIAL TRENDS 5-YEAR TREND CURRENT QUARTER Industrial real estate sales prices are on average $74.15 PSF, a marked improvement from $45.16 PSF year over year. Overall vacancy has continued to decrease, currently at 7.2%l. Rental rates are holding at $5.38 PSF. Activity doubled this quarter with 3.3 million SF absorbed across all submarkets. E-commerce is changing the landscape across all CRE types but especially with industrial properties. The majority of companies moving to the Chicago area have an e-commerce component. Tenant demand continues to lean toward warehouse spaces that are used for distribution centers or third party logistics companies that support online retail vendors and any related tech support. With large manufacturing companies downsizing, like Caterpillar, the business type absorbing space will be less manufacturing sites and more flex or top of the line warehouses. The remaining question will be if savvy owners will be able to repositions older suburban industrial products in order to make it attractive to alternative users. VACANCY ABSORPTION RENTAL RATE 7.2% Continues to decrease 3,364,477 SF Activity is high $5.38 PSF Continues increasing As in 2Q15, large signings continue this quarter in and around Interstate I-55. South I-55 and North DuPage submarkets in particular had the most notable signings. Swap.com occupying 361,176 SF at 850 Veteran s Pky in Bolingbrook received the most attention as it furthers the e-commerce discussion. However, solid companies such as Central American (490,420 Sf at 815 Bluff Rd, Romeoville), and Kane Warehousing (220,592 Sf at 700 S Weber Rd, Bolingbrook) further strengthens investor confidence that the Chicago industrial market is diversified in the company types attracted to the area. Eleven additional industrial/flex properties are under construction this quarter. This adds to a total of 36 projects which broke ground in 2015 year to date. When completed, 10 million square feet will be added to Chicago area s industrial inventory; 42% of it is already preleased. In 3Q15, an additional 160 buildings were added to the grand total of 374 proposed industrial/ flex buildings. The construction numbers suggest that industrial investors are cautious of funding 100% spec development but developers are optimistic that Chicago will support major gains in new construction. UNDER CONSTRUCTION AVERAGE SALE PRICE JOB GROWTH 10.1 million SF Developers seeing less risk $74.15 PSF Investors seeing value in industrial CRE -0. Job gains less quarter to quarter but gains are made year over year

2 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE METRO CHICAGO UNITED STATES 12% 2% ECONOMY Unemployment Continues to Fall The Chicago unemployment rate continues to fall for 3 consecutive quarters. Currently at 5.7% for Chicago Metro (Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL, Metro Division) in August This is the lowest rate in 9 quarters; however, some of the decrease in unemployment is due to the decrease in the overall civilian labor force in the metro area as well. Construction employment continues to be the drive in the market increasing 5. year over year regionally, and 4.7% nationally. Manufacturing and Information sectors lost jobs at an average 1. rate year over year or 7500 jobs year over year. CAP RATE 9% METRO CHICAGO UNITED STATES The economic recovery is boosting intermodal freight trade in Chicago as it is a key transportation hub in the US. Consumer demand increases for retail goods to industrial parts, all of which are moved by freight trains. This increase in consumption has surged jobs in logistics, trucking, and packaging in Chicago. According to the Chicago Metro Agency for Planning, container movement in Chicago railyards has increased from 5.9 million to 7.5 million or 27% percent over 5 years. 7% YEAR-OVER-YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Trade, Transportation & Utilities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services -2% Total Nonfarm METRO CHICAGO Leisure & Hospitality Government Construction Information Mining & Logging Financial Activities UNITED STATES Manufacturing Other Services DEMAND Leasing Activity Doubled Net absorption overall doubled quarter over quarter with 3.3 million in positive absorption in 3Q15, up from 1.6 million SF in 2Q15. Industrial leasing market has consistently been positive absorption for 17 quarters since 2Q The majority of the absorption in 3Q15 occurred in I-55/I-80 SW Corridors,, and North DuPage submarkets. Many signings that occurred last quarter have already occupied space; accounting for high absorption in these submarkets as well high signing activity. Expect North DuPage as well as South I-55 to continue with high absorption until end of year as the majority of major lease signings in 3Q15 occurred in these areas. VACANCY Vacancy Decreasing Overall industrial vacancy decreased 40 basis points to 7.2% quarter over quarter. O Hare, I-55/I-80, South Chicago, South Suburbs and McHenry County had large drops in vacancy in 3Q15. Despite slight vacancy increases in this submarket, the lowest vacancy remains in Kenosha County (3.2%). Within Illinois, the next tightest submarkets are Central DuPage/Kane (5. vacancy), I-88 Corridor (5.2%), and Southwest (4.7%). The highest vacancy remains in the Upper, McHenry County, and submarkets, where competition with Wisconsin real estate in a more favorable corporate tax environment is winning out. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q

3 RENTAL RATES Asking Rents Increasing Slightly Overall industrial rental rates increased quarter over quarter to only $5.38 from $5.33. The largest increases were in the West Suburban, I-88 Corridor, Indiana, North Cook, and North DuPage submarkets, averaging 20 cents PSF quarter over quarter. West Cook submarket decreased by 28 cents PSF quarter over quarter. Submarkets with older inventory are undercutting their rates while newer spec buildings that are expected to ask for premiums in rents have yet to hit the market. OUTLOOK Lenders are cautious of providing capital that may lead to overbuilding and saturation of the market. Not forgotten was the exuberance of the 2007/2008 which led to empty completed structures once the economic market failed. Developments that are user driven, especially those in tech, e-commerce and 3PLs, are expected to increase over the next two years, over empty speculative space. However, speculative buildings are being built in well-chosen, high demand locations. Expect speculative development to be larger with over 1 million SF warehouses and 36 inch clear height minimums. INVESTMENT VIEW Some Developers, Some User/Owners In 3Q15, industrial sales were distributed amongst REITS, developers, small private investors and owner/users. No one buyer dominated the marketplace but rather the theme was more owner /users in 3Q15 than in the past few quarters. Hoist Liftruck Manufacturing purchasing a facility at 4407 Railroad Ave, East Chicago, Gourmet Food International purchased th Place, Kenosha, and Steiner Electric at 2225 W Hubbard St, Chicago. Bridge Development and AIC Ventures were the well-known players in the sales purchasers this quarter; purchasing facilities in Melrose Park, Hillside, and Wheeling. The largest property sold was in Monee, IL W Industrial Drive, the 700,200 SF facility, sold for $22 Million ($31 PSF). A majority of sales this quarter were just north of the city of Chicago in North Cook and submarkets. One third of all the industrial sales in 3Q15 were smaller facilities of less than 50,000 SF. Industrial sales volume for 3Q15 was significantly less than the previous 2 quarters, however overall, 2015 is on track to be the highest industrial sales volume since NET ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET THOUSANDS SF VACANCY BY SUBMARKET 1 12% 2% Ctrl DuPage/Kane I-55 Corridor RENTAL RATES BY SUBMARKET West Suburbaan West Cook Upper Southwest South Chicago O'Hare North DuPage North Cook McHenry County Lake County South Lake County North Kenosha County Indiana I-88 I-55 Corridor Ctrl DuPage/Kane I-88 Indiana Kenosha County Lake County North Lake County South McHenry County North Cook North DuPage Ctrl DuPage/Kane I-55 Corridor I-88 Indiana Kenosha County Lake County North Lake County South McHenry County North Cook North DuPage 1Q15 1Q15 1Q15 O'Hare South Chicago O'Hare South Chicago 2Q15 Southwest Upper West Cook 2Q15 Southwest Upper West Cook 2Q15 3Q15 West Suburbaan 3Q15 West Suburbaan 3Q15 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q

4 Industrial average sales price per square foot decreased to $74.15 from $78.91 quarter over quarter. This is not an indicator of prices decreasing as year over year price per square foot increased from $45.16 PSF. The second quarter had a huge increase in sales prices due to a larger volume of buildings being purchased in the Prologis/ Norges Bank portfolio purchases from KTR Capital. However, a positive indicator is despite a smaller volume of buildings changing hands in the 3rd quarter by different investors, price per square foot remained at above $70. Cross border investments continue to increase in industrial properties. Foreign investors currently make up 51% of Chicago industrial investments year to date in terms of volume and number of properties. With the investments primary coming from Norway, Singapore and U.A.E, Canadian investors have also joined in investing in Chicago this year. However, a large majority of cross border investment count was with Norges Bank which had a joint venture partnership with Prologis, a local investor. Investors are seeing higher rates of return on their industrial investments with cap rate at 6. compared to 6.62% in office. The steady increase in tenant activity has leaned the industrial market in favor of the landlord. Supply is decreasing for larger tenants over 300,000 SF. Occupancy costs are increasing as development land is getting scarce and purchase costs are increasing. Speculative buildings are on the horizon but lenders are cautious, with more generous funding for user-backed new developments. METRO CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL RENTAL RATES $6.00 $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $ METRO CHICAGO NET ABSORPTION AND VACANCY NET ABSORPTION MILLION SF VACANCY % % TENANT VIEW Internet s Impact on Industrial Swap.com signed for 361,176 SF at 850 Veteran s Pky in 3Q15. They joined the wave of other Dot coms such as Amazon who recently signed more distribution space in the Chicago area at 2801 S Western Ave for 150,261 SF and 4500 Western Ave in Lisle for 67,996 SF. Other industrial users such as Insight, a computer hardware, software & IT solutions company, renewed 238,423 SF in 1600 Hunter Ct, Hanover Park. Not only is e-commerce making a significant impact on industrial absorption, but also logistics firms and tech firms that support it are also looking to expand into industrial space in Chicagoland. METRO CHICAGO DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE MILLION SF CONSTRUCTIONS COMPLETED 12m 10m 8m 6m 4m 2m Developers are excited about the technology impact on industrial space use in Chicago. These particular companies are in need of fulfillment or warehouse locations near city centers where they have access to thousands of workers. Tech users are not only willing to pay a premium for location but also tend to build the interior themselves to meet their specific technology needs. Expectations for the next 2 years are an increase in spec warehouse development to meet the growing demand by specialized tenants. 0m REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q

5 Lease Activity TENANT PROPERTY CITY SIZE (SF) TYPE SUBMARKET CLUSTER Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company 825 Bluff Rd Romeoville 500,160 Renewal South I-55 Central American 815 Bluff Rd Romeoville 490,420 New South I-55 Swap.com 850 Veterans Pky Bolingbrook 361,176 New South I-55 Insight 1600 Hunter Ct Hanover Park 238,423 Renewal North DuPage Kane Warehousing, Inc. 700 S Weber Rd Bolingbrook 220,592 New South I-55 Ferguson Enterprises, Inc. 969 Veterans Pky Bolingbrook 209,763 New South I-55 IMI Cornelius, Inc. 500 Regency Dr Glendale Heights 160,660 Renewal North DuPage GELS Logistics Kimberly Dr Carol Stream 154,275 New North DuPage Insight Public Sector Inc 1560 Hunter Rd Hanover Park 151,999 Renewal North DuPage Amazon.com 2801 S Western Ave Chicago 150,261 New South Chicago Cellusuede 1515 Elmwood Rd Rockford 125,253 New Upper Parksite 1400 Remington Blvd Bolingbrook 125,030 Renewal South I-55 Bolke Miller Company Amhurst Pky Waukegan 119,000 New Lake County North Quantum Colors W Howard St Niles 81,804 New North Cook Falken Tire Olympic Blvd Joliet 75,400 New South I-55 US Auto 7711 Gross Point Rd Skokie 69,203 New North Cook Amazon.com 4500 Western Ave Lisle 67,996 New I-88 West Novamatic Americas 1050 E Business Center Dr Mount Prospect 51,211 New Commonwealth Edison Co 3536 S Iron St Chicago 51,000 New South Chicago Fort Pitt Furniture 5150 W Roosevelt Rd Chicago 50,000 New Rena Foods Hecht Dr Bartlett 45,307 New NTS 1660 Wall St Mount Prospect 45,083 New SimplexGrinnell LP 91 Mitchell Ct Addison Renewal West Suburban GHP 7860 Lehigh Ave Morton Grove 42,480 New North Cook Fibre-Craft 7711 Gross Point Rd Skokie 41,432 New North Cook Midwest Pioneers, Inc Frontenac Rd Naperville 40,674 Renewal I-88 West Camrbia 1780 Birchwood Ave Des Plaines 40,640 New O'Hare Wisdom Adhesives Worldwide River Ridge Rd Elgin 39,131 New Logoplaste 540 Joyce Rd Joliet 37,900 New South I-55 Team Industrial Services 540 Joyce Rd Joliet 37,500 New South I-55 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q

6 Sale Activity PROPERTY SIZE (SF) SALE PRICE PSF BUYER SELLER SUBMARKET CLUSTER 5800 W Industrial Dr 700,200 $22,000, $31 Will Partners Reit GC Essential Asset REIT 4407 Railroad Ave 550,000 UNK Hoist Liftruck Manufacturing Read Property Group Indiana 2501 Galvin Dr 342,620 $29,000,000 $85 Zurich Alternative AM Conor Commercial / Globe Corp S Grove St 265,000 UNK R2 Companies South Chicago W Grand Ave 191,302 $8,587,500 $45 Bridge Development Partners Northern Builders West Cook 410 W 169th St 151,436 UNK Venture One Bixby Bridge Capital 5000 S Homan Ave 128,000 $5,000,000 $39 Robust Management Sitex Realty Group Indiana 4220 W Bryn Mawr Ave 123,900 $3,350,000 $27 Venture One 7940 New Jersey Ave 79,559 UNK Mike K Braun CalEast Industrial / LaSalle Investment Van Senus Business Properties Central DuPage/Kane 300 N Mannheim Rd 74,156 $3,100,000 $42 AIC Ventures Munchs Supply West Cook 951 Douglas Rd 73,074 $4,600,000 $63 High Street Realty Trust West Suburban 1941 Johns Dr 68,075 $3,870,000 $57 Private Stanley Weissbrot North Cook 301 Alice St 65,450 $2,900,000 $44 AIC Ventures Rivergold II North Cook 1930 W Walnut 58,800 $11,250,000 $191 Mark IV Realty Group Martin Capital Group 999 Regency Dr 48,663 UNK Robert Weisheit LaVezzi Precision Inc North DuPage N Ashland 43,273 $8,100,000 $187 Interforum Holdings Chicago Development Corp 2137 W Walnut St 40,000 $1,900,000 $48 Dayton Street Partners Kehoe Designs th Pl 35,200 $2,625,000 $75 Gourmet Foods Int'l 58th Place Kenosha County W Carroll Ave 33,800 $4,063,000 $120 Trust W Rosehill Dr 30,000 $2,500,000 $83 Armand & Erlend R Candea 2225 W Hubbard St 26,590 $2,655,000 $100 Steiner Electric Dayton Street Partners Jerome & Elizabeth Chesnul Pontarelli Limousine / Arthur J Rento REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q

7 Market Indicators INVENTORY VACANCY SUBMARKET UNDER QUARTERLY NET YTD NET COUNT SQUARE FEET CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION ABSORPTION SF OVERALL RATES OVERALL NNN AVERAGE ASKING RATES Central DuPage/Kane ,058, , , ,639 2,736, $4.00 I-55/I-80 SW Corridors ,701,352 5,324,499 1,592,002 2,322,082 14,994, % $5.65 I-88 Corridor ,516, ,604 86, ,303 3,317, % $5.90 Indiana ,225, , , ,386 2,444, % $3.77 Kenosha County ,307, , ,681 17,435 1,026, $3.99 Lake County North ,536, , , ,681 3,362, % $5.08 Lake County South ,399, , ,321 3,355, % $6.47 McHenry County ,433, ,651 25,164 3,082, % $ ,919, , ,197 5,786, % $9.36 North Cook ,592, , , ,554 3,074, % $6.56 North DuPage ,544, , , ,640 2,702, $ ,766,927 1,055,040 33, ,721 6,744, % $6.34 O'Hare 1, ,906, , ,528 1,105,727 5,800, % $6.23 South Chicago ,059, , , ,090 9,250, % $5.23 1,088 72,909, , ,480 5,887, % $4.99 Southwest ,439, , ,045, % $1.81 Upper ,212, , ,163 3,239, % $3.51 West Cook ,038, , ,435 4,764, % $5.60 West Suburban ,596, ,634-92,318 2,081, % $7.89 INDUSTRIAL TOTAL 17,251 1,171,166,030 10,138,546 3,364,477 6,061,820 84,694, % $5.38 CONTACT Sandy McDonald Director of Market Research [email protected] METHODOLOGY Inventory defined as existing Class A, B and C industrial/flex properties, 10,000 square foot minimum rentable base area. Overall vacancy inclusive of direct and sublease space. Net absorption defined as the change in physical occupancy from one period to the next. Average asking rents are NNN per square foot, per year. Inventory includes all single-tenant, multi-tenant and owner-user industrial/flex properties, excluding properties owned and occupied by a government agency N. River Road, Suite 150 Rosemont, Illinois T F Copyright 2015 Transwestern. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or distributed to third parties without written permission of the copyright owner. The information contained in this report was gathered by Transwestern from CoStar and other primary and secondary sources believed to be reliable. Transwestern, however, makes no representation concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any inaccuracy contained herein.