Using NeuralTools to Move Yellow Pages Dollars to Digital Solutions

Transcription

1 Using NeuralTools to Move Yellow Pages Dollars to Digital Solutions June 24, 2015

2 The Challenge : Moving advertising budgets for our national clients from local print yellow pages directories to digital products without loosing lead generation. : Case Study: International Car Rental Agency--data from US yellow page directories from 2012 through today. Confidential and Proprietary 2

3 Who We Are

4 Who We Are : Founded in Peoria, IL in 1963 : Offices in Peoria, Atlanta & St. Louis We deliver advertising solutions that generate local leads and customer engagement Confidential and Proprietary 4

5 Our Solutions LOCAL Be where consumers are looking... Organic :Listings :Google+ Local :Special Offers SEARCH Promote your business online.... Be there. Be found. :Paid Search & Display :SEO :Premium Internet Directories :Print Yellow Pages SOCIAL Create online word of mouth. Consumer Loyalty :Claim :Manage :Engage RESPONSE MEASUREMENT Measured results equal measured profit.... Prove ROI :Track-ability :Versatility :Training Possibilities MOBILE Reach consumers on the go.... Engagement : Display : App Search : GPS Search : Website Confidential and Proprietary 5

6 Does anyone use the yellow pages?

7 Does anyone use the yellow pages? : Short answer is yes, 4.6 billion references made to print yellow pages in % of US adults used yellow pages at least 1 time per year 61% made contact, a visit, or a purchase after referring to yellow pages : More precise answer is yes, but usage is declining. YP references (billions) Confidential and Proprietary 7

8 Does anyone use the yellow pages? : Yellow Pages effectiveness to drive leads is still very competive with Search Engines 2013 Consumer Media Comparison Trends (Burke, Feb 2014) Action Taken After The Search Yellow Pages Search Engine Contacted/visited 63% 52% Purchase & intent 76% 75% Made a purchase 38% 35% Intend to make purchase 37% 40% No action planned/taken 16% 20% Confidential and Proprietary 8

9 Does anyone use the yellow pages? : Who are these people still using the yellow pages? Age Male 21.3% 22.3% 27.0% 27.2% 36.2% 42.0% Female 18.0% 17.5% 25.1% 30.2% 35.9% 41.7% (Burke, February 2014) : Where do they live? Rural Markets--less than 200,000 in population (Market Authority, 2013) Southeast and Southwest (Marquette Group, 2013) Confidential and Proprietary 9

10 Today s Example: Auto Rental Heading

11 Auto Rental Heading : Auto Rental Heading is considered a small heading in that it is 3-5 pages in length with less than 10 competing brands with estimated references at 5.9 million for 2014 (Burke 2014) Confidential and Proprietary 11

12 Testing Phase : Traditionally, ads succeed if They are in first few pages of the heading They are large enough to convey relevant information to the customer They are graphically pleasing color and large lettering for easy reading : Industry data and data from our clients indicated that other factors are now more important If the book is prominent a particular market, directory share (DSR) The size of the market The region of the country Confidential and Proprietary 12

13 Testing Phase : The most accurate measure is the number of calls generated by an ad. Call tracking numbers are placed in the ad instead of the location s business phone number. The tracking number rings directly to the location s business and the caller is unware. Reports are then provided by the call tracking line vendor that include o Date of the call o Caller s name and address, if available, but minimally the caller s city or exchange o The time the call began and ended (duration field as well) o Whether the call was from a business or consumer as well as a land line or cell phone Confidential and Proprietary 13

14 Testing Phase-Client s KPI : Gross Revenue Projected Calls * 25% Call to Sale Ratio * 70% Show Rate * Average Ticket Value : Cost as a Percentage of Revenue (CPR) Cost of Ad/Gross Revenue 5% CPR Target : Cost-Per-Lead (CPL) Cost of Ad/Total Predicted Calls $2.00 CPL Target Confidential and Proprietary 14

15 Sample Size : Year one testing (March 2012-February 2013) Consisted of approximately 800 directories Contained more than 2,000 publisher funded test phone lines Tested Non Tested 784 2,446 24% 76% 24% Testing Not Testing 76% Confidential and Proprietary 15

16 Car Rental Agency : Results by market size (population) Metro (1,000+) Large ( ) Medium ( ) Small (<249) 46 Tested 106 Tested 163 Tested 470 Tested 15% Met CPL 10% Met CPL 19% Met CPL 17% Met CPL 500 Results By Market Size CPL Greater than $2.00 CPL $2.00 or less Metro (1,000+) Large ( ) Medium ( ) Small (<249) Confidential and Proprietary 16

17 Car Rental Agency : Results by directory usage Very High Usage (60-100%) Mid Usage (20-59%) Low-Usage (1-19%) 28 Tested 701 Tested 56 Tested 21% Met CPL 17% Met CPL 11% Met CPL 700 Results By Directory Usage (DSR) CPL Greater than $2.00 CPL $2.00 or less % 20-59% 1-19% Confidential and Proprietary 17

18 Car Rental Agency : Results by ad type Display In-column Listing 627 Tested 82 Tested 76 Tested 12% Met CPL 44% Met CPL 24% Met CPL 600 Results By Ad Type CPL Greater than $2.00 CPL $2.00 or less Display In-column Listing Confidential and Proprietary 18

19 Car Rental Agency : Results by publisher YP (ATT) DEX (Sprint) SPR (Verizon) HIBU (YellowBook) 326 Tested 127 Tested 143 Tested 189 Tested 19% Met CPL 5% Met CPL 4% Met CPL 30% Met CPL 300 Results By Publisher CPL Greater than $2.00 CPL $2.00 or less 0 ATT DEX SPR YBC Confidential and Proprietary 19

20 Car Rental Agency : Results by color Color No Color 651 Tested 134 Tested 13% Met CPL 34% Met CPL 600 Results By Color CPL Greater than $2.00 CPL $2.00 or less Color No Color Confidential and Proprietary 20

21 Initial Conclusions : Results Few ads were making the client s desired KPIs. 44% of the tested in-column ads met CPL, because they are less expensive than display ads, but overall produced less calls. : The simplistic solution would be to reduce all their ads to in-column. : The better solution would be to use NeuralTools to help identify what ads not tested should be reduced, and which should remain at their current size. Confidential and Proprietary 21

22 NeuralTools Model

23 Neural Network: What Is It? : A neural network is trained to recognize patterns in a data set to then predict similar patterns in future data : The software is designed to simulate how a biological brain would process information to predict outcome : Neural networks work well in situation when the input data is noisy, i.e., not exact and categorical : A Neural network can be considered as a black box that is able to predict an output pattern when it recognizes a given input pattern. hatis.html Confidential and Proprietary 23

24 NeuralTools : Each test ad is labeled as successful or not based on the agreed measure; this is the dependent variable, what the program will solve for future directories that do not have test data : Independent variables are then chosen to see what produces the best level of prediction : Examples of independent variables Market Size DSR Percentile Ad Type, UDAC or Ad Size Range Ad Cost Range Geographic Region Number of Locations in the Ad Color Ad Position Confidential and Proprietary 24

25 Independent Variables Selected : Publisher: ATT, DEX, SPR, YBC : Ad Cost Grouping: The net cost was grouped by $1000 dollar increments up to $6,000; $6,000- $39,999 were grouped together and $40,000 and greater were grouped : Geographical Region: 10 designations for continental US : Market Size: Metro (1,000,000+), Large (500, ,999), Medium (250, ,999) and Small (<100, ,999) : Directory Share Rating (DSR): Provided by Yellow Pages industry Confidential and Proprietary 25

26 Independent Variables Selected Confidential and Proprietary 26

27 Error Rate Summary Net Information Name Net Trained on EHI Display Through Feb 2013 (13) Configuration Location Independent Category Variables PNN Category Predictor This Workbook 5 (Publisher, Region2, DSR Group, Market Size, Ad Cost Group2) Independent Numeric Variables 0 Dependent Variable Category Var. (Met CPL Goal of $3.00 or Less) Training Number of Cases 318 Training Time 0:00:01 Number of Trials 125 Reason Stopped Auto-Stopped % Bad Predictions % Mean Incorrect Probability % Std. Deviation of Incorrect Prob % Testing Number of Cases 80 % Bad Predictions % Mean Incorrect Probability % Std. Deviation of Incorrect Prob % Data Set Name EHI Display Through Feb 2013 Number of Rows 398 Manual Case Tags NO Variable Impact Analysis Region % DSR Group % Publisher % Ad Cost Group % Market Size % Confidential and Proprietary 27

28 Error Rate Classification Matrix (for training cases) No (program classification) Yes (program classification) Bad (%) No (actual classification) % Yes (actual classification) % Classification Matrix (for testing cases) No (program classification) Yes (program classification) Bad (%) No (actual classification) % Yes (actual classification) % : Test Cases 57 were predicted as No and are No did not meet $3 CPL 6 were predicted as Yes and are Yes did meet $3 CPL 10 were predicted as No, but were actually $3 CPL, however of these 10, 8 did not make the $2.00 CPL mark 7 were predicted to meet $3 CPL, but in fact did not Confidential and Proprietary 28

29 Conclusions

30 Test Results : Recap: very few directories met the client s KPI during testing. March 2012-February 2013 Ad Type Total Ads Test Ads % of Test Ads Met $2 CPL Display Ads % In-Column (Space & Trademark) % Paid Listings % Free Listings Total Directories % Confidential and Proprietary 30

31 Results from Predictive Model and Second Year Testing : 251 display ads were predicted to not meet the $2 CPL 133 were reduced but when tested during the 2 nd year still failed to meet $2 CPL 6 were maintained and failed the 2 nd year to meet the $2 CPL 42 were reduced, tested the 2 nd year and met the $2 CPL 21 were reduced, but not tested in subsequent issues 49 were in directories that were removed : 24 display ads were predicted to meet the $2 CPL 2 were reduced to a space ad, tested, and met the $2 CPL 16 were left as display ads, but when tested did not meet $2 CPL 1 was left as a display ad, and when tested met the $2 CPL 3 were left as display ads, and were not tested in year 2 2 were in directories that were removed Confidential and Proprietary 31

32 Final Outcome : Because the strategic cuts to print yellow pages, advertising dollars were moved into digital products. : In the 2014 fiscal year the KPI metrics were met for digital products and some print resulting in 5% growth of rental sales Confidential and Proprietary 32