The)Essential)Report)

Transcription

1 TheEssentialReport 2February2016 MELBOURNE SYDNEY

2 TheEssentialReport Date: Preparedby: 2February2016 EssentialResearch Datasupplied: EssentialMediaCommunicationsisamemberof theassociationofmarketandsocialresearchorganisations. Ourresearchersaremembersof theaustralianmarketandsocialresearchsociety The Essential Report Page2/13

3 Aboutthispoll ThisreportsummarisestheresultsofaweeklyomnibusconductedbyEssentialResearchwithdataprovidedbyYourSource.Thesurveywas conductedonlinefromthe27 th to28 th January2016andisbasedon1,021respondents. Asidefromthestandardquestiononvotingintention,thisweek sreportincludesquestionsonaustraliabecomingarepublic,trustinmediaand downloadingfromtheinternet. Themethodologyusedtocarryoutthisresearchisdescribedintheappendixonpage13. Notethatduetorounding,notalltablesnecessarilytotal100%andsubtotalsmayalsovary. The Essential Report Page3/13

4 Federalpolitics votingintention Q.IfaFederalElectionwasheldtodaytowhichpartywillyouprobablygiveyourfirstpreferencevote?Ifnotsure,whichpartyareyoucurrently leaningtoward? Q.Ifdon tknow?wellwhichpartyareyoucurrentlyleaningto? Samplesize=1,811respondents Firstpreference/leaningto 7weeks Last This Election ago week week 7Sep13 15/12/15 25/1/16 2/2/16 Liberal 42% 40% 40% National 3% 4% 4% TotalLiberal/National 45.6% 45% 44% 44% Labor 33.4% 35% 35% 35% Greens 8.6% 10% 10% 11% PalmerUnitedParty 5.5% 1% 1% 1% Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 2PartyPreferred Election 7Sep13 7weeks ago 15/12/15 Last week 25/1/16 This week 2/2/16 LiberalNational 53.5% 52% 52% 51% Labor 46.5% 48% 48% 49% NB.Thedataintheabovetablescomprise2[weekaveragesderivedfromthefirstpreference/leaningtovotingquestions.Respondentswhoselect don tknow arenotincludedintheresults.thetwo[partypreferredestimateiscalculatedbydistributingthevotesoftheotherpartiesaccordingto theirpreferencesatthe2013election. The Essential Report Page4/13

5 Republic Q.AreyouinfavouroragainstAustraliabecomingarepublic? Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Infavour 36% 44% 30% 53% 41% 41% 39% 39% 33% 31% 34% 39% X3 Against 31% 24% 43% 11% 36% 32% 34% 35% 42% 31% 34% 29% +2 Noopinion 33% 33% 27% 36% 23% 27% 27% 27% 25% 38% 32% 32% +1 36%(down3%sinceSeptemberofrespondentswereinfavourofAustralianbecomingarepublicand31%(up2%wereagainst.33%couldnotgive anopinion. Greens(53%andLabor(44%votersweremorelikelytobeinfavourofarepublic.43%ofLiberal/Nationalvoterswereopposed. Thosemoreinfavourweremen(42%,higherincomeearners(42%ofthoseearning$1,600+pwanduniversityeducated(45%. Jan 2010 March 2011 Jun 2012 Apr 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Sep 2015 Shift since Sep 2015 The Essential Report Page5/13

6 SupportforrepublicatendofQueen sreign Q.WouldyousupportoropposeAustraliabecomingarepublicattheendoftheQueen'sreign? Total Vote Vote Vote Vote Aged Aged Aged Labor Lib/Nat Greens other 18X34 35X Jan2014 Totalsupport 45% 51% 41% 57% 44% 46% 41% 47% 47% Totaloppose 29% 21% 38% 18% 36% 22% 30% 35% 32% Stronglysupport 23% 29% 18% 32% 25% 19% 23% 27% 21% Support 22% 22% 23% 25% 19% 27% 18% 20% 26% Oppose 18% 14% 25% 14% 16% 14% 19% 21% 15% Stronglyoppose 11% 7% 13% 4% 20% 8% 11% 14% 17% Noopinion 27% 27% 21% 26% 21% 32% 29% 18% 20% 45%(down2%sinceJanuary2014supportAustraliabecomingarepublicattheendoftheQueen sreignand29%(down3%oppose.27%(up7% havenoopiniononthequestion. ThosemostsupportiveofbecomingarepublicattheendoftheQueen sreignwerelaborvoters(51%greensvoters(57%,men(49%andthose withuniversityeducation(54%. The Essential Report Page6/13

7 WillAustraliaeverbecomeaRepublic Q.DoyouthinkthatAustraliaislikelyorunlikelytoeverbecomearepublic? Total Vote Vote Vote Vote Support Oppose Jun Apr Labor Lib/Nat Greens other republic republic Totallikely 56% 59% 60% 60% 60% 82% 43% 52% 46% Totalunlikely 24% 22% 28% 21% 26% 14% 41% 34% 37% Verylikely 19% 21% 21% 21% 17% 41% 8% 12% 12% Somewhatlikely 37% 38% 39% 39% 43% 41% 35% 40% 34% Somewhatunlikely 17% 15% 21% 15% 15% 11% 27% 25% 25% Veryunlikely 7% 7% 7% 6% 11% 3% 14% 9% 12% Don tknow 19% 18% 12% 17% 15% 4% 16% 15% 16% 56%(up10%sinceApril2014ofAustraliansbelieveitislikelythatAustraliawillonedaybecomearepublic.Just24%(down13%thinkitisunlikely. Therewaslittledifferenceinopinionacrossvotergroups. 65%ofmales,comparedto49%offemalesbelieveitislikelythatAustraliawillonedaybecomearepublic. 82%ofthosewhosupporttherepublicand43%ofthoseopposedthinkitislikely. The Essential Report Page7/13

8 Supportforchanges Q.Wouldyousupportoropposeanyofthefollowing? Total Total Strongly Strongly No Support Oppose support oppose support oppose opinion ChangingtheAustralianflag 33% 55% 13% 20% 22% 32% 13% ChangingtheNationalAnthem 28% 54% 12% 16% 24% 30% 18% ChangingthedateofAustraliaDay 23% 59% 11% 12% 24% 35% 17% Total Vote Vote Vote Vote Aged Aged Aged Support support Labor Lib/Nat Greens other 18X34 35X republic ChangingtheAustralianflag 33% 34% 31% 56% 34% 33% 31% 34% 64% ChangingtheNationalAnthem 28% 31% 27% 34% 23% 30% 25% 28% 44% ChangingthedateofAustraliaDay 23% 23% 22% 48% 17% 35% 20% 16% 40% AmajoritywereopposedtochangingtheAustralianflag,theNationalAnthemorthedateofAustraliaDay. 33%supportedchangingtheAustralianflag,28%supportedchangingtheNationalAnthemand23%supportedchangingAustraliaDay. Greensvotersweremorestronglyinfavourofchangingtheflag(56%andthedateofAustraliaDay(48%.Youngerrespondentswerealittlemore likelytosupportchangingthedateofaustraliaday(35%. Amajority(64%ofthosewhofavourarepublicsupportedchangingtheNationalFlagbutweresplitonchangingtheNationalAnthemandthedate ofaustraliaday. The Essential Report Page8/13

9 Trustinmedia Q.Howmuchtrustdoyouhaveinwhatyoureadorhearinthefollowingmedia? Total Totala Total Total Total Totala Totala Alot Not No alot Some Don t Don t lot alot alot alot lot lot of much trust /some trust know use /some /some /some /some /some /some trust trust atall trust Mar10 Jul11 Jun12 Jan13 Nov14 Jun15 ABCTVnewsandcurrentaffairs 66% 21% 45% 14% 7% 3% 10% 70% 71% 74% 73% 69% 63% SBSTVnewsandcurrentaffairs 63% 17% 46% 13% 7% 4% 14% 66% 61% ABCradionewsandcurrentaffairs 62% 18% 44% 14% 7% 4% 13% 62% 67% 69% 70% 62% 58% Newsandopinioninlocalnewspapers 49% 5% 44% 28% 10% 4% 9% [ 54% 56% 55% 53% 50% Newsandopinionindailynewspapers 49% 5% 44% 27% 11% 4% 9% 62% 53% 52% 48% 50% 45% ABCradiotalkbackprograms 49% 10% 39% 21% 10% 4% 17% 45% 47% 50% 49% 48% 46% CommercialTVnewsandcurrentaffairs 48% 6% 42% 29% 14% 4% 5% 64% 48% 46% 44% 48% 46% Commercialradionewsandcurrent 46% 4% 42% 26% 13% 4% 11% 54% 46% 45% 46% 45% 44% affairs Newsandopinionwebsites 44% 4% 40% 31% 11% 4% 10% 49% 41% 40% 40% 42% 39% Commercialradiotalkbackprograms 34% 4% 30% 31% 16% 4% 15% 38% 33% 33% 32% 33% 34% Internetblogs 23% 3% 20% 35% 22% 4% 17% 20% 20% 20% 23% 22% 20% Overall,trustinmediahasrisenalittlesincethisquestionwasaskedlastyear howeverrankingsremainmuchthesame. ThemosttrustedmediawereABCTVnewsandcurrentaffairs(66%alot/sometrust,SBSTVnewsandcurrentaffairs(63%andABCradionewsand currentaffairs(62%. Theleasttrustedwereinternetblogs(23%andcommercialradiotalkbackprograms(34%. The Essential Report Page9/13

10 Trustinnewspapers Q.Howmuchtrustdoyouhaveinwhatyoureadinthefollowingnewspapers? Totala Not No Totala Totala Totala Totala Alotof Some Don t lot/some much trustat lot/some lot/some lot/some lot/some trust trust know trust all Jul2011 Jun2012 Jan2013 Jun2015 TheAustralian 63% 12% 51% 23% 9% 5% 69% 60% 65% 58% TheTelegraph(NSWonly 56% 10% 46% 27% 14% 4% 52% 49% 48% 46% SydneyMorningHerald(NSWonly 66% 11% 55% 22% 7% 4% 74% 69% 71% 70% TheAge(Victoriaonly 66% 15% 51% 18% 11% 5% 79% 76% 71% 66% HeraldSun(Victoriaonly 57% 10% 47% 24% 15% 4% 54% 51% 50% 48% CourierMail(Queenslandonly 47% 6% 41% 34% 16% 2% 65% 51% 57% 48% *Note:Percentagesbasedonlyonrespondentswhohadreadeachnewspaper. Overall,amongthosewhohavereadthem,themosttrustednewspapersweretheSMH(66%alot/sometrust,TheAge(66%andTheAustralian (63%.TheCourierMail(47%wastheleasttrusted. Sincethisquestionwasaskedin2015,therehavebeenincreasesintrustforTheTelegraph(up10%,theHeraldSun(up9%andTheAustralian(up 5%. The Essential Report Page10/13

11 DownloadingfromtheInternet Q.Doyouordoesanyoneinyourhouseholddownloadfilms,musicortelevisionshowsviatheinternetforfree? Total Men Women Aged Aged Aged May Oct 18X34 35X Yes 26% 28% 25% 39% 26% 13% 32% 27% No 64% 63% 64% 49% 65% 79% 61% 64% Don tknow 10% 9% 11% 12% 9% 8% 7% 9% 26%ofrespondentssaidtheydownloadfilms,musicortelevisionshowsviatheinternetforfree.Thisismuchthesameasrecordedin2013. Thosemostlikelytodownloadwereagedunder35(39%. The Essential Report Page11/13

12 SubscriptionstoTVandcontentstreaming Q.DoesyourhouseholdsubscribetoanyofthefollowingTVandcontentstreamingservices? Total Men Women Download Aged Aged Aged from 18X34 35X internet Foxtel 30% 32% 28% 30% 33% 26% 32% Netflix 25% 25% 25% 47% 19% 8% 36% Stan 6% 7% 6% 12% 5% 1% 10% Presto 7% 8% 6% 10% 8% 1% 13% Otherstreamingservice 8% 9% 8% 11% 10% 3% 21% TotalsubscribetoTVorcontentservices 51% 52% 51% 67% 51% 34% 66% 51%saytheysubscribetoTVandcontentstreamingservices.30%subscribetoFoxteland25%subscribetoNetflix. 67%ofthoseagedunder35subscribetoTVandcontentstreamingservicesincluding47%whosubscribetoNetflix. Thosewhodownloadfilms,musicortelevisionshowsviatheinternetforfreearemorelikelytoalsosubscribetoTVandcontentstreamingservices (66%. The Essential Report Page12/13

13 Appendix:Methodology,marginoferrorandprofessionalstandards ThedatagatheredforthisreportisgatheredfromaweeklyonlineomnibusconductedbyYourSource.EssentialResearchhasbeenutilizingtheYourSource onlinepaneltoconductresearchonaweek[by[weekbasissincenovember2007. Eachweek,theteamatEssentialMediaCommunicationsdiscussesissuesthataretopicalandaseriesofquestionsaredevisedtoputtotheAustralianpublic. Somequestionsarerepeatedregularly(suchaspoliticalpreferenceandleadershipapproval,whileothersareuniquetoeachweekandreflectmediaandsocial issuesthatarepresentatthetime. YourSourcehasaself[managedconsumeronlinepanelofover100,000members.Themajorityofpanelmembershavebeenrecruitedusingoffline methodologies,effectivelyrulingoutconcernsassociatedwithonlineself[selection. YourSourcehasvalidationmethodsinplacethatpreventpanellistoveruseandensurememberauthenticity.YourSourcerandomlyselects18+malesandfemales (withtheaimoftargeting50/50males/femalesfromitsaustraliawidepanel.aninvitationissentouttoapproximately oftheirpanelmembers. Theresponseratevarieseachweek,butusuallydelivers1000+interviews.Intheory,withasampleofthissize,thereis95percentcertaintythattheresultsare within3percentagepointsofwhattheywouldbeiftheentirepopulationhadbeenpolled.however,thisassumesrandomsampling,which,becauseofnon[ responseandlessthan100%populationcoveragecannotbeachievedinpractice.furthermore,thereareotherpossiblesourcesoferrorinallpollsincluding questionwordingandquestionorder,interviewerbias(fortelephoneandface[to[facepolls,responseerrorsandweighting.thebestguidetoapoll saccuracyis tolookattherecordofthepollingcompany[howhavetheyperformedatpreviouselectionsorotheroccasionswheretheirestimatescanbecomparedwith knownpopulationfigures.inthelastpollbeforethe2010election,theessentialreportestimatesoffirstpreferencevoteswereallwithin1%oftheelection results. TheYourSourceonlineomnibusislivefromtheWednesdaynightofeachweekandclosedonthefollowingSunday.Incentivesareofferedtoparticipantsinthe formofpoints.essentialresearchusesthestatisticalpackageforthesocialsciences(spsssoftwaretoanalysethedata.thedataisweightedagainstaustralian BureauofStatistics(ABSdata. AllEssentialResearchandseniorYourSourcestaffholdAustralianMarketandSocialResearchSociety(AMSRSmembershipandareboundbyprofessionalcodes ofbehaviour.yoursourceisanaustraliansocialandmarketresearchcompanyspecializinginrecruitment,fieldresearch,datagatheringanddataanalysis. EssentialResearchisamemberoftheAssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO.YourSourceholdsInterviewerQualityControlAustralia (IQCAaccreditation,AssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSROmembershipandWorldAssociationofOpinionandMarketingResearch Professionals(ESOMARmembership.BothEssentialResearchandYourSourceareISOaccreditedmarketresearchcompanies.Thisresearchwasconductedin compliancewithas:iso20252guidelines. The Essential Report Page13/13