Towards a Safe and Clean Environment,TSCE 05

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1 THE INFLUENCE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY CONVERSION TO ELECTRICITY ON THE EGYPTIAN ENVIRONMENT By Prof. Dr. Eng. H. H. El-Tamaly Dr. Ali M. Eltamaly Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Elminia University, Elminia, Egypt (A1-6) ABSTRACT This paper will attempt to evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic aspects of renewable energy especially in Egypt and the challenge in the using of this energy option instead of using fossil fuels. Current and future policies will be examined to identify their impacts on renewable energy systems. The current Egyptian energy supply picture which is heavily weighted toward fossil fuels has been analyized in details. The enviromental issues in Egypt has been studied in an accurate manner. The benfits and challenge of renewable energy in Egypt has been considered. Also the price of kwh producing from renewable energy systems such as Wind Energy Systems (WES) and Photovoltaic Energy Systems (PVES) has been examined to determine the most economic penetration level today and in the future. KEYWORDS: Renewable Energy, Egypt, Wind, Photovoltaic, Enviroment. INTRODUCTION As energy demands around the world increase, the need for a renewable energy source that will not harm the environment has been increased. Some projections indicate that the global energy demand will almost triple by 2050 and oil can only supply the world for up to 150 years [1]. Using renewable energy is one way to meet the future need. So, we can say that the renewable energy is the fuel of the future. Although more conventional sources of energy, such as fossil fuels, are still satisfying the majority of the world s energy demand, renewable energy systems are used in a great variety of applications. Also using renewable energy systems especially in the new Egyptian projects like Tushkey project will reduce the cost for energy transportation and pollution. There are many types of renewable energy in a good situation among the energy types like WES and PVES. The price of kwh generated from some of these sources has been fallen to be lower than many conventional sources as fossil fuels. Also the renewable energy costs will continue to decline as the industry grows and matures. Renewable energy sources presently provide significant amount of energy in many countries. Renewable energy sources currently supply about 10 % of the world energy demand [1]. These energy sources hold promise for a substantial potential contribution for the world, and they will therefore become increasingly important in the future. Wind Energy Systems (WES) is the most favorite renewable energy options where it become mature technology and there are many promising projects around the world. The renewable energy is environmental friendly compared to current level of CO 2 emission associated with electricity generation. A considerable contribution from renewable energy sources could reduce substantially the emission of CO 2 and the low level of other pollutants that cause acid rain, smog and other local environmental hazards. The renewable energy has many other benefits such as: Enhance diversity in energy supply markets and strengthen energy security. Make a major contribution to the reduction of global atmospheric emissions. Create significant new employment opportunities in energy infrastructure, manufacturing,

2 installation and etc. Contribute to the securing of long term, cost-effective environmentally sustainable energy supplies. Offer low operating costs. Shifting from such reliance on fossil fuels will also help Egypt budget where, a large percentage of the fossil fuel used in Egypt can be exported. Renewable energy systems domesticate the energy supply thus reducing import costs. The modularity and scalability of a WES and PV make it a seemly perfect candidate for a large role in the new energy economy. no waste generated from the operation of renewable energy systems. If this is true, why are renewable energy systems still such a tiny portion of the overall Egyptian energy picture? This paper will attempt to evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic aspects of renewable energy to shed light on this question. ELECTRICAL ENERGY IN EGYPT The current Egyptian energy supply picture is heavily weighted toward fossil fuels. 80% of the total energy supplied comes from fossil fuels and a mere 1.1% from all renewable energy sources combined. Egypt's rising level of energy consumption is a major factor behind the country's air pollution problems. Over the last 20 years, Egyptian energy consumption has risen 220%, from 20 Billion kwh in 1980 to 64.7 Billion kwh in 1998[2]. Despite this upward trend, Egypt still only accounts for 0.5% of total world energy consumption, and Egypt's increasing energy consumption is still below that of other countries in the region as Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Table (1) and Fig.1 show contribution of different sources in the total Energy sector in Egypt [2,3,13]. Table (1) The contribution of different sources in the total Energy sector in Egypt [2,3,13]. Source Generation % MW Capacity Price Emission kg per kwh C/kWh CO 2 SO 2 NO x Oil % Natural gas 23.2 % * Hydraulic 21 % Coal 2.4% Wind 1.06% PV 0.03% Nuclear 0.15% Oil Renewable N.Gas Hydraulic Coal Nuclear 2% 0% 21% 23% 53% 1.1% Fig.١ show contribution of different sources in the total Energy sector in Egypt [٢ ٣ ١٣]

3 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES In Cairo, which is home to one-fourth of the Egyptian population, air pollution is an extremely serious problem. Fumes from Cairo's 1.2 million vehicles, combined with suspended particulate matter (including lead) plus the emission of CO 2 from the electricity plant, create an almost permanent haze over the city. The concentration of sulfur dioxide in Cairo is four times higher than world health organization guidelines, and on average, smoke and lead three times higher, and nitrogen oxides two times higher [2]. Renewable energy's most important environmental benefit is its lack of emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases when compared with alternative methods of generating electricity. Renewable energy is very well suited to meet environmental concerns. In Egypt, it is possible to get a 0.3 million-ton reduction in CO 2 emissions by installing 1 gigawatt of Renewable energy [4]. There are three means by which renewable energy can impact the environment. To get a true sense of the environmental benefits and costs of renewable energy systems, one must look at all three. The areas are resource use, pollution potential and energy use. The latter of these is intrinsically related to carbon dioxide mitigation and climate change. These areas do overlap and each one depends on what part of the renewable energy life cycle is in question. To be able to assess whether renewable energy are 'environmentally friendly' and thus an appropriate renewable energy source to pursue, the benefits and drawbacks will be discussed on a broad scale. One fundamental characteristic of renewable energy that makes them more 'environmentally friendly' is the fact that they do not use any fuel during operation. This significantly reduces health and air pollution risks. Renewable energy systems also use no water during operation, which essentially eliminates water pollution concerns as well. Due to these characteristics, there is no waste generated from the operation of renewable energy systems. Essentially, once a renewable energy system is manufactured and installed, it has no environmental impacts whatsoever. The potential for CO 2 mitigation comes from grid-connected renewable energy systems. In gridconnected systems, the energy they generate is replacing energy that would have been generated by fossil fuels, therefore eliminating the CO 2 that would have been emitted in it. The operation of the 600 MW wind farm will produce 42 million MWh over their 20 years life time, that in turn will save 10 million tons oil equivalent and will abate the emission of the following quantities of green house gases: 588 million-ton Co x, 2.1 million-ton No x, 8.4 million-ton So x [5]. WIND ENERGY SYSTEMS The cost of wind energy have changed dramatically over the past twenty years, as the cost of wind power has fallen approximately 90 percent during that period [6] as shown in Fig.2. In the early 1980s, when the first utility-scale turbines were installed, wind-generated electricity cost as much as 38 cents per kwh [6]. Now, state-of-the-art wind power plants can generate electricity for less than 2.6 cents/kwh [6], a price that is in a competitive range with many conventional energy technologies. Fig.2 Cost of wind-generated energy in levelized cents/kwh [7].

4 The cost of wind energy varies widely depending upon the wind speed at a given site. The energy that can be tapped from the wind is proportional to the cube of the wind speed, so a slight increase in wind speed results in a large increase in electricity generation. Consider two sites, one with an average wind speed of 6.5 m/s and the other with average winds of 7.4 m/s. All other things being equal, a wind turbine at the second site will generate nearly 50% more electricity than it would at the first location. Fig.3 shows the costs per kilowatt-hour for a 51 MW wind farm at three different average wind speeds expressed in meters per second. [6]. Fig.3 Effect of site average wind speed on the cost of kwh. Although wind turbine technology has steadily progressed to a point where its reliability is today comparable to that of other energy technologies, it is still regarded as "novel" and "risky". Four additional points about the economics of wind energy should be considered when estimating its relative cost. First, the cost of wind energy is strongly affected by average wind speed and the size of a wind farm. Larger wind farms provide economies of scale. A 3-MW wind plant generating electricity at 5.9 cents per kwh would, all other factors being equal, generate electricity at 3.6 cents/kwh if it were 51 MW in size [8]. Second, wind energy is a highly capital-intensive technology; its cost reflects the capital required for equipment manufacturing and plant construction. This in turn means that wind's economics are highly sensitive to the interest rate charged on that capital. One study found that if wind plants were financed on the same terms as natural gas plants, their cost would drop by nearly 40%. [8] Third, the cost of wind energy is dropping faster than the cost of conventional generation. While the cost of a new gas plant has fallen by about one-third over the past decade, the cost of wind has dropped by 15% with each doubling of installed capacity worldwide, and capacity has doubled three times during the 1990s. Wind power today costs only about one-tenth as much as in the mid-1980s, and its cost is expected to decline by another 35-40% by [8] Fourth, if environmental costs were included in the calculation of the costs of electricity generation, wind energy's competitiveness would increase further because of its low environmental impacts. Wind energy produces no emissions, so there is no damage to the environment or public health from emissions and wastes such as are associated with the production of electricity from conventional power plants. Wind energy is also free of the environmental costs resulting from mining or drilling, processing, and shipping a fuel. [8]

5 The factors affecting the cost of wind energy are still rapidly changing, and wind energy s costs will continue to decline as the industry grows and matures. The following table shows the brief economy details of a 50 MW wind farm at a wind speed of 6 to 7.9m/s. Table(2) [6]: The economics of a 50-MW wind farm at a wind site with average wind speed of mps. Project size: 50 MW, Capital cost: $50 million ($1 million per MW), Annual power production 150 million kwh (35% capacity factor), Financing: 60% debt, 40% equity Annual gross revenue: $6 million (at price of 4 cents / kwh) Expenses: -Debt: 60% (15 years at 9.5%) -Distribution 22% -Operation and maintenance (8%) -Land, property taxes, or rent 5% -Mgt fees, insurance 5% Tax credit and depreciation: -5-year depreciation on wind equipment -1.5 c/kwh credit adjusted for inflation during first ten years of operation WIND ENERGY SYSTEMS IN EGYPT Egypt has many excellent places to build WES. The red-sea area is one of the best places in the world for wind energy applications. The distance between Hurghada and Abu-Darag has the highest average wind speed (7-12 m/s). Also this distance is desert so it is free to build WES there [5]. An overall summary of the wind climates measured at four main stations is given in Table (3) [5]. The station are listed from north to south; Abu Darag, Zafarana and Gulf of El-Zayt are situated along the Gulf of Suez, Hurghada in the northernmost part of the Red Sea. Table (3) [5]Overall summary of the wind climates measured at four main stations. Station R % C (m/s) K U (m/s) E W/m 2 D U (deg) Abu Darag Zafrana Gulf El-zyt Hurgada Tab. 1: Overall summary of wind observations 24.5 m a.g.l. at the four main stations: data recovery rate (R), Weibull A-and k-parameters, mean wind speed (U), mean energy density (E) and direction (D U ). The occurrence of calms at all four stations is less than 0.1%. The Egyptian ministry of electricity & energy planned to build 600MW of renewable energy by year 2005 [5] (arround 5% of the country total primary needs). New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) planed that 300 MW shall be financed by the state budget, while the private sector, local and foreign investors, are encouraged to finance the other 300 MW based on Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT) system [5]. The first wind energy demonstration wind farm was established in Ras Ghareb on the Red Sea coast, with 400 kw capacity. In addition, a 5.2 MW wind farm in Hurghada is operating successfully containing different designs and sizes of wind turbines ( KW). The wind farm is connected to the local electricity grid of the city and produces more than 15 million kwh/year.

6 The NREA activities can be summarized as follows [5]: 60 MW wind farm at Zafarana in co-operation with the Danish. The project is under implementation, in two phases, each phase is 30 MW, the first phase was contracted in December 1998, and the second phase was contracted in December 1999, and the project is under implementation. 60 MW wind farm at Zafarana co-operation with KfW (Germany) The first phase 33 MW was contracted in May 1999 and it is under implementation, while the next phase is contracted in year MW wind farm at Zafarana in co-operation with Japan The feasibility study was performed for the project. 60 MW wind farm at Zafarana in co-operation with Spain A memorandum was signed with the selected Spanish consulting company to contract consulting services. PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY Despite continuous growth in the PV industry over the last decade, PV energy is still a very small part of the overall Egyptian energy picture. In 1998, it satisfied less than 0.03% percent of the overall energy consumption in Egypt. The main reason PV systems are not playing a larger role is competition from fossil fuels or WESs. Over the past 10 years, fossil fuel prices have fallen dramatically [9]. PV systems can either be connected to a transmission grid or can be used remotely. Off-grid applications can be broken down into three main categories; industrial, consumer, and rural habitation. Industrial uses include telecommunications, cathodic protection, telemetry, navigation systems, water pumping, and highway signs. Calculators, watches, and other small electronic devices fall in the consumer use category. Lastly, rural habitation includes remote homes and villages. Currently, more than 50% of the PV market is for off-grid applications and the largest market opportunity worldwide for PV is in rural habitation. Grid-connected PV systems can be used for both distributed and central power generation. Distributed generation includes residential (2-4kW) and commercial (30-100kW) roof PVs as well as installations at power substations other remote points on the transmission grid. That fact that PV can be used for distributed generation is very beneficial. It can help utilities lower loads at the distribution level and by combining PV with demand-side-management techniques such as conservation and energy efficiency efforts, they can save significant time, money, and trouble. Central generation consists of large multi megawatt facilities that transmit energy to the users through the grid. The inherent flexibility in PV energy systems allows them to fit perfectly in the restructuring of Egyptian electric power industry. PV systems are superior in that they are emission-free during operation, they are completely noiseless, and they do not require any fuel at all. The problem that remains is knowledge. People in the power industry understand natural gas systems are better than PVs. Natural gas turbines are easier to order and have installed as well. For PV to truly be competitive in the distributed energy market, greater understanding of total system benefits must become commonplace. Utilities invest in PV systems to meet regulatory requirements or to minimize expansion costs. Though both of these markets are still small, prices of installed PV systems have fallen steadily over the past 15 years. Systems cost $17 per watt in 1984, $9 per watt in 1992, and $6 per watt in 1996 [9]. One of the biggest benefits to PV users of any scale is the minimal operation and maintenance cost. All PV systems have very low O&M costs. Flat plate systems O&M is slightly lower because they generally have no moving parts. Early kilowatt plants demonstrated O&M costs of $0.005 per watt.

7 [10] One study of the performance of a residential system over 10yrs of operation showed the system to have high reliability and very low annual O&M costs in the $52.00/yr. For utilities, electricity is most expensive to produce and distribute during peak load times. The full cost of delivering electricity to consumers during summer peak times can be as high as $0.40 per kwh. [10] By using PV systems as either customer-sited generation or as larger-scale distributed generation in place of system expansion, utilities could save a great deal of time and money. The cost of grid extension today is between $20,000 and $80,000 on average. Also, there is a lengthy permitting process required for the installation of new transmission and distribution networks. It can take several years to get upgrades approved [10]. Some utilities spend $1.50 to distribute power for every $1.00 they spend to produce it. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS From the information above, it can be concluded that renewable energy systems are 'environmentally friendly'. They use very few resources and those used in volume seem plentiful. Based on the technological and environmental advantages outlined here, renewable energy systems certainly have the potential to be a larger part of future Egypt energy picture. The biggest obstacle for renewable energy today is the initial cost. The most promise renewable energy source is the WESs. This source of energy can compete the fossil fuel energy sources where the desert land and strong wind is free in Egypt. Moreover this source is environmentally friendly. So we recommend the government to issue some polices to encourage the private sector to participate in this field for better Egyptian future. REFERENCES: ١. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY REPORT " KEY ISSUES IN DEVELOPING RENEWABLES", ٢. UNITED STATES ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ٣. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET COMPARATIVE AIR EMISSIONS OF WIND AND OTHER FUELS AMERICAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION 122 C STREET NW, SUITE 380, WASHINGTON, DC 2001 ٤. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET WIND ENERGY: THE FUEL OF THE FUTURE IS READY TODAY AMERICAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION 122 C STREET NW, SUITE 380, WASHINGTON, DC 2001 ٥. ASHOUR ABDEL SALAM MOUSSA, WIND ENERGY IN EGYPT DEWI MAGAZIN NR. 17, AUGUST 2000 ٦. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET THE ECONOMICS OF WIND ENERGY AMERICAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION 122 C STREET NW, SUITE 380, WASHINGTON, DC 200 ٧. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET THE MOST FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT WIND ENERGY AMERICAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION. ٨. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET COMPARATIVE COST OF WIND AND OTHER ENERGY SOURCES AMERICAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION. ٩. SERCHUK, ADAM, SINGH, VIRINDER, "EXPANDING MARKETS FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS: WHAT TO DO NEXT", RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY PROJECT, DECEMBER 1998 ١٠. ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE (EPRI) AND OFFICE OF UTILITY TECHNOLOGIES, DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY (EERE), "RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERIZATIONS", TOPICAL REPORT TR , DECEMBE.R 1997 ١١. DOE NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY, "DISTRIBUTED GENERATION", SEPTEMBER 1999.

8 ١٢. WISER, RYAN H., "THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICY IN EMERGING GREEN MARKETS: AN ANALYSIS OF MARKETER PREFERENCES", LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY, AUGUST ١٣. RICHARD M. SWANSON "THE PROMISE OF CONCENTRATORS" PROGRESS IN PHOTOVOLTAICS: RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS, MILLENNIUM SPECIAL ISSUE, PROG. PHOTOVOLTAIC. RES. APPL. 8, (2000).