A model for evaluating the CO2 emissions of the Operational Programmes in European Regions. Seminario Roma novembre 2013

Transcription

1 Evaluation of the Costs and Benefits of Public Investment in terms of impact on CO2 emissions. fromtheregiontothecity A model for evaluating the CO2 emissions of the Operational Programmes in European Regions Seminario Roma novembre 2013 Andrea Forni(ENEA-UCSTUDI)

2 Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Outline Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The design and scope of the model Previous experience in the evaluation of emission impacts of the Operational Programmes The model CO2MPARE: input and output, structure, process computing, data, use in "basic" and "expert" An application to the POR FESR (ERDF) Emilia-Romagna Conclusions: strengths and bounds 2

3 The project Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) Consortium composed of 6 partners Commissioned by DG REGIO (call for tender expiring in August 2011)andfullyfundedbytheECto 860k Technical involvement of other DGs: CLIMATE, ENV, ENER Project duration: 12 months(january-december 2012)

4 Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) Objectives Design a template (generic) for the ex-ante evaluation of the impacts on CO2 emissions from OP (ERDF) co-financed by the EU inorderto: Facilitate the achievement of the EU target of 20% reduction of GHG emissions to 2020 Gives direction to Cohesion Policy of the EU towards sustainable growth and a low carbon content Support the decisions of the EU regions in future PO Inform about the impacts of carbonic PO-ERDF comparing different allocations of investments 4

5 Objectives Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases is included in the list of core indicators required by the EC to report back to the European Parliament what has been achieved with the ERDF in alternatives to synthetic forms of the financial progress. European regions to provide a common tool to be used on a voluntary basis to populate the indicator 30 indicator 30 Gross reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (in CO2 equivalents, Kilton per year) as a result of actions funded by the Structural Funds 5

6 European Fund for Regional Development Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The ERDF includes a total budget at EU level of 201 billion EUR and is intended to finance: Direct aid to companies (in particular SMEs) to create sustainable jobs Infrastructure for research and innovation, telecommunications, environment, energy and transport Financial instruments (eg., Funds for local development) aimed at supporting the regional and local development and to promote cooperation between local authorities and regions Technical assistance measures 6

7 Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The territorial scope of COMPARE UE 27 Country member (NUTS 0) 123 MACRO REGIONS (NUTS 1) 296 REGIONS (NUTS 2) Ue, country surface Ue country surface BELGIQUE-BELGIË LUXEMBOURG 2586 БЪЛГАРИЯ / BULGARIA MAGYARORSZÁG ČESKÁ REPUBLIKA MALTA 316 DANMARK NEDERLAND DEUTSCHLAND ÖSTERREICH EESTI POLSKA IRELAND PORTUGAL ΕΛΛΑΔΑ / ELLADA ROMÂNIA ESPAÑA SLOVENIJA FRANCE SLOVENSKO ITALIA SUOMI / FINLAND ΚΥΠΡΟΣ / KÝPROS 9251 SVERIGE LATVIJA UNITED KINGDOM LIETUVA Surface total km

8 Regions test Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) Involvement of 5 test regions: 3 objective "Convergence" objective 2 "competitiveness 8

9 Role of test regions Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) Regional Authorities (Managing Authority, Environmental Authority,...) will be the end users of the model Recognition of expectations and needs via either the test regions Skills needed to use the model Feedback from potential users of the test regions Data necessary for the use of the model Data collection and use in the test regions for the scenarios "demo" 9

10 Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) previous experience 10

11 The Servizio structure Mitigazione e of Adattamento the Operational Cambiamenti Climatici Programmes (MACC) Axes:strategicprioritiestoconsiderinPO 17Maintopicsoftheprogram 86Prioritythemes/expenditurecategories AnnexIItoRegulation1828/2006 Modelinputs(decisionsoftheprogrammer): financial allocation to different expenditure categories 11

12 The model MPARE The impact of an operational program in terms of CO2 is based on the allocation of the financial budget available The available budget is allocated in up to 86 expenditure categories For each category of expenditure on, different types of projects are funded. These projects involve physical quantities or intangible assets produced / consumed (determinants) that are determined by the model through a first set of coefficients A second series of coefficients (mainly based on an LCA approach) is used to calculate emissions of CO2 per unit physical or intangible realized / consumed The two sets of coefficients, denominated ratios in the model, amounted to about 1700 values in total The use of inputs and their transformation into output occurs through calculation algorithms descriptive of 26 Standardized Investment Components (SIC)

13 The structure of the model MPARE

14 List of topics and SIC Theme SIC Theme SIC Building Building construction Energy Energy switch equipment Building refurbishment Building demolition Fossil fuel energy Renewable centralised energy Transport Rail construction Renewable decentralised energy Rail renovation Rail electrification Road construction Road renovation Waste and water Energy efficiency Wastewater treatment Water supply treatment Waste management infrastructure Cycling infrastructure Other Reforestation Public transportation infrastructure Maritime and inland-waterway infrastructure Port infrastructure Airport infrastructure Equipment Civil engineering Immaterial services Configurable SIC

15 Process of Simplified Calculation inside a SIC Financial inputs / outputs outputs Financial data Ratios Intermediate results emissions Funds ( ) Ratio of length of road constructed / SIC : road construction length of road constructed (km) Ratio / length of road constructed emissions Category of expenditure 1.1 SIC : Building construction SIC : Building refurbishment SIC : etc. Each SIC uses a set of ratios (different in each region) to calculate A value of physical implementation (determinant) on the basis of financial resources The emission corresponding to the value of the determinant Baseline to determine additional emissions or avoided Time period: during the construction phase and the use phase of the works

16 OP s financial model Reminder Allocation : model of funds principles ID Categories of expenditure 16 Railways k 17 Railways (TEN-T) 0 k 18 Mobile rail asset 0 k 37 Petroleum products 0 k 38 Petroleum products (TEN-E) 0 k 39 Renewable energy: wind k 40 Renewable energy: solar 5000 k 41 Renewable energy: biomass k 42 Renewable energy: hydroelectric, geothermal and other k 55 Promotion of natural assets 1000 k Protection and development of k natural heritage Other assistance to improve 57 0 k tourist services Etc. Protection and preservation of 58 0 k the cultural heritage Development of cultural k 59 infrastructure Other assistance to improve 60 0 k cultural services Etc. General principles of the model Breakdown based on statistical analysisof projectsfundedin the test regions Breaking down into SICs 50 % : k aa 20 % : k 5 % : k 25 % : k 0 % : 0 k Building construction Building refurbishment Other public work Equipment Intangible services Determinant calculation Constructed surface (m²) Rehabilitated surface (m²) Number of EFT Weight of equipment Number of EFT Output Calculation Output

17 Category of expenditure 1.1 Full Calculation process inside a SIC SIC : road construction (calculation process with targeting) Funds allocated to local road construction ( ) Funds allocated to national road construction ( ) Ratio of length of local road constructed / Ratio of length of national road constructed / length of local road constructed (km) length of national road constructed (km) Ratio / length of local road constructed emissions Ratio / length of national road constructed emissions Financial inputs outputs Financial data Ratios Intermediate results emissions Total emissions Ratio of length of highway constructed / Ratio / length of highway constructed Funds allocated to highway road construction ( ) length of highway constructed (km) emissions Each SIC contains parameters called "targetings" that characterize several possible alternative embodiments (scenarios) of the SIC

18 OP Region X Category of expenditure 1.1 Full Calculation process inside the model Funds allocated to local road construction ( ) Ratio of length of local road constructed / SIC : road construction Ratio embedded CO Ratio freight CO Ratio / length 2 / length 2 / length of local of local road constructed of local road road constructed constructed length of local road constructed (km) Embedded emissions emissions Emissions due to freight emissions of the SIC Financial inputs outputs Financial data Ratios Intermediate results emissions emissions of CE 1.1 Funds allocated to etc. Category of expenditure 1.2 Etc. SIC : Building construction SIC : etc. emissions of CE 1.2 Etc. Total emissions

19 Results of the model MPARE Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) cumulative emissions The main theme of the program by category of expenditure for SIC Distinction between direct and indirect emissions during the construction phase and in the use phase Time horizon of evaluation editable Presentation of the results in graphs and tables Comparison of alternative scenarios relating to the same Operational Programme Qualitative assessment of the range of uncertainty of results 19

20 Results: cumulative emissions of CO2 for the original POR and for the POR integrated after the earthquake in 2012 Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The overall effect in both cases is a reduction of the cumulative emissions for the period of life of the interventions Emissions, after an initial increase in the phase of "site", will be reduced until the end of the period of useful life of the interventions 20

21 Comparison of cumulative emissions of CO2 between the original and integrated POR Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The reduction in emissions is more relevant in the case of integrated POR The biggest impact in terms of reducing emissions of integrated POR compared to the original hypothesis was primarily due to improved efficiency of buildings earthquake renovated / rebuilt thanks to additional funding "Cost" of emission reductions: POR original 222 / tco2 Integrated POR: 203 / t CO2 21

22 Strengths of of MPARE Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) Systematization and standardization of the process for the estimation of CO2 emissions from financial resources and choices of regional planning Flexibility: the model can be adapted to very different geographical areas with the ability to regionalize the values of the ra o Comparability scientific: guaranteed not to modify the units of measurement of the ratio Transparency: all the algorithms and data used for the calculation of CO2 are visible within the model Governance and carbon awareness: each region, in the process of programming, decide the distribution of spending with criteria (priority) and analyzing economic and social ex ante the potential effects of their choices emissive Particularly relevant for the programming period (20% low-carbon projects) 22

23 the MPARE model and the city Servizio Mitigazione e Adattamento Cambiamenti Climatici (MACC) The cities are realizing the documents of the Covenant of Mayors. In Italy there are 2,800 and 1,500 accessions SEAP The regions will have many estimates of CO2 and must take this into account in their planning. The cities and regions must use the same methodologies and the same transformation coefficients Only in this way will have project proposals consistent with technological innovations at all levels of programming 23

24 Model for Operational ProgrammeAssessment in EU Regions Model and support materials downloadable &id=673&lang=en en.cfm#5 thanksfor yourattention