Technical Assistance to Transportation Infrastructure Needs Assessment

Transcription

1 The National Pre-accession Financial Assistance Programme for Turkey 2003 Technical Assistance to Transportation Infrastructure Needs Assessment for Turkey This project is funded by the European Union A project implemented by TINA Turkey Joint Venture

2 Document Control Data sheet: Project Title: Technical Assistance to Transportation Infrastructure Needs Assessment Contract Number: TR /01 Country: Contracting Authority: Beneficiary: Contractor / Consultant: Title of Report: Authors of the Report: Contributions by: Submission date: Turkey Central Finance and Contract Unit (CFCU), Ankara Ministry of Transportation and Communication (MoT), Turkey State Planning Organization (SPO), Turkey TINA Turkey Joint Venture led by TINA Vienna Transport Strategies Ges.m.b.H. Vienna Rainer Mueller for the TINA Turkey Joint Venture DORSCH Consult, Germany GEOMATIC, Poland NEA, The Netherlands NESTEAR, France Su-Yapı, Turkey Universität Karlsruhe, IWW, Germany 9 March 2007 (Draft ) 26 April May 2007 (final submission) May 2007 Page 2

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 6 INTRODUCTION... 6 TRAFFIC FORECAST THE CORE NETWORK FOR TURKEY... 8 CORE NETWORK ASSESSMENT PROJECT PRIORITISATION TINA INFORMATION SYSTEM CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS INTRODUCTION PROJECT BACKGROUND WORK APPROACH DATA COLLECTION TRAFFIC FORECAST DEFINITION AND ASSESSMENT OF TURKEY S CORE NETWORK ANALYSIS OF BOTTLENECKS AND IDENTIFICATION OF REQUIRED PROJECTS PROJECT PRIORITISATION TINA INFORMATION SYSTEM TIS TRAFFIC FORECAST SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIO TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES PASSENGER TRANSPORT MODELLING FREIGHT TRANSPORT MODELLING INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORK SCENARIOS RESULTS OF TRANSPORT DEMAND MODELLING DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT DEMAND (DOMESTIC FLOWS) Passenger Freight DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT DEMAND (INTERNATIONAL FLOWS) Passenger Freight RESULTS AT THE LEVEL OF NETWORK LINKS AND NODES Base Year Reference Scenario Long-Term Investment Scenario Alternative Scenario ANALYSIS OF THE FORECAST RESULTS PASSENGER TRANSPORT May 2007 Page 3

4 3.6.2 FREIGHT TRANSPORT THE CORE NETWORK FOR TURKEY THE DEFINITION OF THE NETWORK FOR TURKEY AIRPORTS SEAPORTS RAILWAYS ROADS CORE NETWORK DESCRIPTION AIRPORTS SEAPORTS RAILWAYS ROADS CORE NETWORK ASSESSMENT TRAFFIC BOTTLENECK ANALYSIS RAILWAYS INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINALS AND LOGISTIC SERVICES ROADS SEAPORTS Capacities of Main TCDD Ports Results of Capacity Analysis of Seaports AIRPORTS CORE NETWORK COST REVIEW ANALYSIS OF CORE NETWORK INVESTMENT COST FINANCIAL NEEDS FOR PROJECTS OF THE CORE NETWORK PROJECT PRIORITISATION PROJECT PRIORITIZATION METHODOLOGY MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS: SOURCES OF CRITERIA MCA CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION PROJECT PRE-ASSESSMENT DATA COLLECTION PRE-SCREENING OF PROJECTS REFERENCE SCENARIO LONG-TERM INVESTMENT SCENARIO PROJECT PRIORITISATION RESULTS THE TINA INFORMATION SYSTEM GENERAL OBJECTIVES TIS SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE May 2007 Page 4

5 7.3 THE TIS GEODATABASE TIS DESKTOP EXTENSION TIS WWW EXTENSION (ETIS) CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONCLUSIONS CORE NETWORK FOR TURKEY CORE NETWORK OPERATION CORE NETWORK PROJECTS POSSIBLE INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS OF THE INVESTMENT SCENARIOS FINANCING OF PROJECTS Role of Public Private Partnership (PPP) Finance in Turkey European Union funding for Turkey Financing of Transport Infrastructure by Mode RECOMMENDATIONS PROJECT PREPARATION RAILWAY TRANSPORT MARITIME TRANSPORT ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURES FOR IMPLEMENTING THE CORE NETWORK FOR TURKEY Identification of the main national actors involved in the transport policy Establishment of a sound methodology for data collection and analysis Periodic reports GLOSSARY May 2007 Page 5

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION 1. The objective of the project is to develop a multi-modal transport network (Core Network) within the Republic of Turkey and to extend the European Union's TEN-T into Turkey. The project consists of defining and assessing a multimodal transport network in Turkey, comprising of roads, railway lines, seaports and airports. 2. This is written by TINA Vienna Transport Strategies who was the leading company of the TINA Turkey Joint Venture, created by a team of international experts from Dorsch Consult, Geomatic, NEA, NESTEAR, Su-yapı and University of Karlsruhe. This serves as a project final document. It summarizes results of the entire works and provides the project team s conclusions and recommendations. 3. The European Union s acquis communautaire contains guidelines for the development of the Trans-European Transport Network. As part of the process of Turkey s accession to the EU, it is necessary to identify the components of a future Trans-European Transport Network in Turkey. This constitutes the output of that identification process. It sets out the findings of the work, which was carried out under the supervision of the Steering Committee of the beneficiaries and executed by the project team, in close co-operation with the relevant institutions in Turkey and the European Commission services. 4. Turkey is a dynamic country where travel is both a major component of lifestyle and a crucial element for economic growth. Increasing trade and economic development will generate continued growth in transport demand throughout Europe and with Western and Middle Asia and the Mediterranean basin. 5. Turkey plays an important role of an interconnection between the European Union, Middle East, the Caucasus, the Mediterranean, the Aegean and the Black Seas. The transport infrastructure networks in this region are therefore vital to competitiveness, economic growth and employment in Turkey, the European Union and the entire region. 6. Turkey s unique geographic location offers tremendous multi-modal transport opportunities. To make maximum use of these opportunities priority should be given to: Improving transport in the North-South and East-West axes to better integrate Turkish transport with international transport networks; Improving intermodal transport facilities and services, to take advantage of the strong growth in container transport; and, Improving maritime connections and nodal points (seaports), to take advantage of their potential strategic role as industrial and logistic platforms. 7. The project is divided into three main activities. The first is the development of a traffic forecasting model and the projection of traffic flows for The second consists of defining and analyzing the multimodal network, and then prioritizing potential network improvement projects by means of a Multi-Criteria Analysis. The third task is the development of a common database using GIS technologies. 8. The is to be approved by the beneficiaries, i.e. Ministry of Transport and State Planning Organisation and the European Commission. The ultimate decision-maker of the study on behalf of the Turkish side is the High Planning Council. May 2007 Page 6

7 9. The results of the project presented in this are not binding for any party. However, the report forms the basis for the negotiations between the Turkish government and the European Commission on Chapter 21 Trans-European networks. TRAFFIC FORECAST In order to forecast future traffic flows for the year 2020 three infrastructure scenarios are developed: Reference Scenario The Reference Scenario consists of all ongoing projects and projects that will be completed by 2020, where the financing is already ensured. The projects included in this scenario were identified in consultation with the Turkish institutions. Long-Term Investment Scenario The Long-Term Investment Scenario (LTI) includes all the projects of the Reference Scenario supplemented by an additional set of projects that are less mature as Reference Scenario projects but are expected to be complete by The projects included in this scenario were also identified in consultation with the Turkish institutions. Alternative Scenario The Alternative Scenario (ALT) includes all the projects in the LTI Scenario supplemented by a set of transport projects developed by the project team to address the transport problems identified in the transport demand analyses. 11. Passenger transport demand as shown in the table below in Turkey is expected to rise significantly between the base year 2004 and the forecast year Market shares for the private car and air modes are expected to increase, while market share for the bus mode is expected to decrease. The modal shift towards air transport is driven by Turkey s expected positive economic development; this will increase the value-of-time and, consequently, the importance of travel time in modal choice, resulting in a shift towards faster modes. The increase in passenger transport demand by car is also driven by this effect and additionally by the significant growth in motorisation. Rail is expected to gain passengers on links subject to major infrastructure improvements and to lose passengers on routes without infrastructure investments. Transport Mode (passenger) Billion passkm Base Year 2004 Market share Reference Scenario 2020 Billion pass-km Market share Long-Term Investment Scenario 2020 Billion pass-km Market share Alternative Scenario 2020 Billion pass-km Market share Private cars % % % % Bus % % % % Rail % % % % Air (domestic travellers) % % % % Total % % % % 12. In the Reference Scenario the market share for both car and air travel is expected to increase significantly over current levels. Although the rail share will profit from an increase in demand on the new high-speed link between Ankara and İstanbul, it suffers from a decline in passenger demand on several other lines, whose infrastructure is not assumed of being improved. The Long-Term Investment (LTI) Scenario is projected to be the most favourable scenario for rail transport: both passenger demand and market share almost double compared to the Reference Scenario as road and short distance air transport demand is shifted to the rail. The Alternative Scenario (ALT) shows a moderate shift from rail to road (compared to the LTI Scenario). Air demand also decreases slightly. The ALT Scenario s road infrastructure improvements also result in route choice changes as traffic is diverted to upgraded roads. This trip diversion helps explain the fairly significant rise in passenger kilometres between the LTI and ALT scenarios. May 2007 Page 7

8 13. Freight transport demand will also significantly increase during the period , given Turkey s high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (assumed to be 6% per year) and related growth in the production and consumption sectors. This results in a growth of 138% in the domestic market. This growth rate was used in the evaluation of all three infrastructure scenarios. Transport Mode (Freight) Million tons p.a. Base Year 2004 Market share Reference Scenario 2020 Million tons p.a. Market share Long-Term Investment Scenario 2020 Million tons p.a. Market share Million tons p.a. Alternative Scenario 2020 Market share Road % % % % Rail % % % % Sea % % % % Total % % % % 14. Road freight transport shows the highest growth between the Reference Scenario and the base year. Freight transport by road increases 148% and its market share increases from 81.2% in 2004 to 84.3% in Rail also shows a significant increase in demand, although its market share decreases from 9.3% in 2004 to 8.7% in Domestic sea transport shows the lowest growth with 76% and its market share decreases from 9.5% to 7.0%. THE CORE NETWORK FOR TURKEY 15. In July 1996, the European Parliament and Council adopted, on the basis of Article 155 of the Treaty 1, a Decision on Guidelines for the development of the Trans-European Transport Network 2 of the European Union. This Decision contains outline plans for the land transport networks and criteria for network nodes such as airports or seaports. The Guidelines constitute a declaration of intent by the Community for the development of a single multimodal transport network to meet the needs of the transport sector using the principles of sustainable mobility. As part of the acquis communautaire, this Decision is the reference for the development of the Trans-European Transport Network in Turkey. 16. The process of defining a Core Network for Turkey consists of identifying the transport infrastructure network components needed for extending the EU s Trans-European Transport Network. The process used follows the Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment (TINA) process that was applied in the Central and Eastern European countries. 17. The Core Network definition is based on three main assumptions, derived from the concept of sustainable mobility: the network should be consistent with the criteria set forth in the EU guidelines for development of the TEN-T; the technical features of the future infrastructure should ensure consistency between the capacity of network components and the expected traffic levels; and, The time horizon for network completion should be As part of identifying transport links and nodes complying with the TEN-T Guidelines it was necessary to assess the possible investment measures needed to bring the network components up to the necessary technical standard, taking into account the transport infrastructure agreements, the traffic scenarios and forecasts together with cost estimates. This process led to the identification of a 1 Treaty Articles are referred to on the basis of the new numbering introduced by the Amsterdam Treaty 2 Decision (96) 1692/EC,OJ L228 September 1996, amended by Decision 1341/2001 and Decision 884/2004 May 2007 Page 8

9 network necessary to meet forecast traffic demand, and to the determination of a comprehensive list of the possible investment projects required to establish the network. 19. The describes this Core Network in its final form. It sets out the necessary components in tabular form illustrated by maps, showing the present status of the network, expected traffic development, and indications of possible bottlenecks. 20. The illustrates the multi-modal Core Network in several maps, based on detailed information existing in the project database. The project database and the application developed during the project includes analyses showing traffic forecasts, the development of the network over time and its changing technical features, existing and future capacity imbalances etc. As summarised in the table below, the Core Network 2020 comprises 10,912 km of railway lines (including 3,508 km of high-speed lines), 11,984 km of roads, 20 airports and 39 seaports. Proposed Core Network for Turkey Infrastructure Lines Description Length (km) Cost Estimate (millions) Core Railways ,912 8,878 High Speed Rail Lines (included in Core Network) Potential Network Extensions (not yet part of the Core Network) 3,508 1,438 Core Roads ,984 8,595 Potential Network Extensions (not yet part of the Core Network) 350 Infrastructure Nodes Description Number Airports (Category A) 7 Airports (Category B) 7 Airports (Category C) 6 Seaports (Category A) 27 Seaports (Category B) 7 Seaports (Category C) 5 Cost Estimate (millions) Total 20 1,185 Total 39 1,488 Total Cost 20,145 May 2007 Page 9

10 NOTE: The border with Armenia could become operational whenever the conditions that caused the closure of the border are removed. May 2007 Page 10

11 CORE NETWORK ASSESSMENT 21. The estimated cost of constructing the Core Network is billion ( 8,878 million for railways, 8,595 million for roads, 1,185 million for airports and 1,488 million for seaports). Share of Investm ents Railways 44% Roads 43% Airports 6% Ports 7% 22. The identifies Core Network segments and nodes where the proposed investment projects will be insufficient to meet traffic demand (taking into account the recommendations of UN/ECE/WP.5 on the relationship between traffic and infrastructure). Therefore, it is likely that some infrastructure bottlenecks will remain in 2020 although comfort, safety and attractiveness on all modes will increase due to the improved infrastructure. Most of the Core Network bottlenecks will exist on railway lines and roads but some will also occur at airports and seaports. The existence of bottlenecks in some places together with excess capacity in others suggests that there may be room for further optimisation of the network planning. 23. The main problem on Turkey s road network today is pavement condition (about 80% of the network is coated with surface treatment). The road network s most basic need is to rebuild existing two lane surface treated roads to four lane roads paved with bituminous hot mixture (BHM). 24. Turkey s railway network is generally in worse condition than the road network and has more capacity constraints. Thus, there is an essential need to modernize the rail network and restructure TCDD to meet changing market needs. 25. The growth in road traffic may lead to capacity problems on main transport routes, a substantial increase in accidents and negative environmental impacts. Therefore it is important that infrastructure development aims at achieving sustainable mobility, balancing economic efficiency, safety and minimal environmental damage. In the long run this requires developing a multimodal network throughout Turkey in line with present and future demand and enabling transport services to utilise each mode according to its comparative advantage. May 2007 Page 11

12 PROJECT PRIORITISATION 26. Improvement projects proposed for the Core Network in Turkey were prioritized using a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) method. MCA is used to complete a multi-modal prioritisation of projects to optimise the country s transport network as a whole. At the same time MCA results can also be used to establish a broad framework for development of a financing programme since the priority ranks of projects can serve as a guide to discern between urgent and less urgent projects. 27. The results of the project prioritization are presented in the table below and can be summarised as follows: Among the 32 priority projects, three railway projects and one road project support the development of the existing Pan-European Corridor IV and its continuation to Central and Eastern Turkey, namely the rail projects Halkalı-Kapıkule, Ankara-Sivas, Kırıkkale-Çetinkaya and the road project Kırşehir-Kayseri. Six railway projects support the development of transport via the country s main ports and constitute, therefore, an important element of co-ordinated intermodal transport in Turkey, namely İzmir Ankara, Bandırma Menemen, Samsun Kalın, Bandırma-Bursa-Osmaneli, and Mersin - Adana Toprakkale and Irmak Zonguldak. These railway projects improve the railway connections to the main ports both in the Mediterranean Sea (including Aegean and Marmara Sea) and the Black Sea. The efficient development of intermodal transport is supported by the 6 container terminals (logistic centres) which are planned countrywide. The five priority seaport projects (i.e. extension of the container port at İzmir port, construction of Derince Container Terminal, new construction of Çandarlı port, new construction of Mersin Container Port, new construction of Filyos port) are linked to railway connections that will be improved by the rail priority projects. The five priority port projects are well suited to form part of the Motorways of the Sea (MoS) concept developed by the European Commission. This concept reflects the international maritime corridors of the region including links to the major Turkish maritime ports of the region. Mersin and Samsun are already recognised by this concept as MoS ports. Mersin and Çandarlı port projects support and posses hub-port potential and are planned accordingly. Five road priority projects (i.e. Çanakkale İzmir, Balıkesir Akhisar Manisa, Bala junct. Aksaray (Ereğli/Ulukışla) junct., Antalya Denizli Salihli, Bozüyük Kütahya Afyonkarahisar Dinar Çardak Denizli) focus on the improvement of important North-South corridors in Central and Western Turkey, while three improve the East-West connections (namely Gerede Merzifon, Merzifon Refahiye junct. Afyonkarahisar Konya Ereğli / Ulukışla junct. 6 th region boundary Kırşehir Kayseri), and two (i.e. Kınalı Junct. Greek border and Refahiye junct. Erzurum Gürbulak Iranian border) to neighbouring countries (Greece and Iran). The priority projects in Western and Central Turkey are well-suited to reducing congestion in the İstanbul area and of the Turkish Straits. May 2007 Page 12

13 Railways (13 priority projects) Roads (15 priority projects) Ports (5 priority projects) No. project No. project No. project 1 Upgrading of section Bala Construction of new highspeed line Halkalı 19 İzmir port channel, junct. Aksaray (Ereğli/Ulukışla) junct. (2 nd 36 dredging + 2 nd stage Kapıkule container terminal stage) Construction of new highspeed line Ankara Konya Construction of new highspeed line Ankara - Afyonkarahisar İzmir Construction of new highspeed line Ankara Sivas Signalling at section Eskisehir - Kütahya - Balıkesir Signalling at section Bandırma Menemen Signalling at section Samsun Kalın Signalling and electrification of Sivas Kars line (Kars Divriği) Electrification of section Kırıkkale Çetinkaya New construction of sections Bandırma -Bursa - Osmaneli, Ayazma İnönü Construction and modernisation of six logistic centres: Halkalı (Istanbul), Köseköy (Izmit), Boğazköprü (Kayseri), Gelemen (Samsun), Hasanbey (Eskisehir), Gökköy (Balıkesir) Electrification of sections Boğazköprü - Yenice, Mersin - Adana Toprakkale Electrification of section Irmak Zonguldak Upgrading of section Gerede Merzifon (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Merzifon Refahiye junct. (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Refahiye junct. Erzurum Gürbulak Iranian border (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section 6 th region boundary Kırşehir Kayseri (incl. Kayseri Northern bypass) (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Bozüyük Kütahya Afyonkarahisar Dinar Çardak Denizli (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Antalya Denizli Salihli (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Afyonkarahisar Konya Ereğli/Ulukışla junct. (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Kınalı Junct. Greek border (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Balıkesir Akhisar Manisa (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Çanakkale İzmir (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Sivrihisar Eskişehir Bozüyük (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Sivrihisar Afyonkarahisar (2 nd stage) Upgrading of section Şanlıurfa Silopi (2 nd stage) Upgrading and widening of Hadımköy Kınalı Motorway New construction of Derince Container Terminal New construction of Çandarlı Port New construction of Mersin Container Port New construction of Filyos Port Note: Project numbering relates to No. shown below on maps. May 2007 Page 13

14 TINA Turkey May 2007 Page 14

15 TINA INFORMATION SYSTEM 28. The contains an overview of the database describing the network and its costs. This database is part of a Geographical Information System developed as part of the project called TINA Information System (TIS). It will form part of a network of databases held and operated at the Turkish Ministry of Transport and the European Commission Directorate General for Transport and Energy. 29. The TIS provides tools for transport data management, analysis, display, mapping and reporting. The system supports Internet/Intranet data review and remote data collection procedures. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 30. The Trans-European Transport Network Core Network for Turkey, as set out in this, should serve as basis for the enlargement negotiations, with respect to transport infrastructure, for both the European Community and Turkey. 31. The successful implementation of the Core Network must be co-ordinated with on-going efforts inside the European Union on the Trans-European Transport Network. This will require the use of similar, if not identical, methodologies and a common reporting framework, particularly as regards the establishment and maintenance of a database using GIS techniques. 32. Institutional development is considered an important lever for economic development in countries preparing for accession to the European Union. In Turkey the existence of a well functioning market for transport will enable transport growth to take place sustainable. Transport institutional reforms should aim at promoting safe, efficient, environmentally sound and user-friendly transport services. While it is important that this European Community legislation is transposed into national legislation, it is also important that the legislation is implemented effectively through appropriate administrative structures. 33. The key strategic aims of Turkish Transport Policy should be: To strengthen the political, social and economic status of the country by developing adequate transport networks. To ensure an efficient and appropriate extension of existing networks. A step-by-step modernisation is necessary, affecting not only the infrastructures but also the system s function and services structures. To increase transport safety. To ensure the financing of projects, that is to co-ordinate short-term investments with longterm financial planning. To simplify implementation. To create a dynamic project management between the conceptual and the project level. 34. The project provides a reference framework for Turkey s transport network. It mainly reflects transport needs at the long-distance level, both trans-national and national, and therefore should be complemented by regional development strategies for additional transport sector investments. While such strategies should be complementary to, and consistent but not limited with, the results of the current project, national strategies may need to go beyond the scope of the TINA Turkey project in order to address regional and local priorities and institution building needs. 35. A consistent investment strategy will need to be implemented over the next 15 to 20 years. This will require smooth pre-accession support under IPA with careful co-ordination between the different financing institutions. In addition, investment schemes will be dependent on preparing specific project proposals, which meet many detailed economic, financial and institutional criteria. The establishment and development of common methodologies and organisational approaches for preparing these proposals will permit the identification of worthy projects and thereby contribute to the continuous development of project pipelines. May 2007 Page 15

16 36. As a follow-up of the TINA Turkey project the project team recommends that the following core functions be undertaken by the Turkish administration in close co-operation with the European Commission services and International Financing Institutions in case projects are included in the IPA framework: Establishment of further priorities amongst the investment projects using the criterion of multimodality, intermodality and sustainable mobility and development of a project pipeline for external financing based on the Core Network. Promotion of institution building and of organisational and regulatory measures increasing the competitiveness of rail. Promotion of public private partnership (PPP) schemes for appropriate priority projects. Promotion of Intelligent Transport Services that benefit Core Network operations. 37. The project team recommends the use of a common method for economic and financial project assessment which should be in line with EU and IFI s standards. It also recommends environmental aspects be incorporated into the overall assessment of networks and projects. Future assessment methods should comply with this recommendation. 38. Further technical assistance will be required to monitor progress, and develop and utilise common methodologies for project analysis and priority setting. Appropriate arrangements should be put in place for such technical support. 39. Construction of the Core Network will require the definition and planning of concrete projects. This process requires completion of detailed project-specific feasibility and environmental studies, in order to define viable projects which can form a viable network. The project team realized, following the collection and assessment of project information from Turkish institutions that information needed to finance projects through international financial institutions (e.g. EIB, Worldbank, ADB) or funding instruments of the European Commission (i.e. IPA) fully in line with EU requirements is partly not yet prepared. Thus it is highly recommended to review all existing preparatory documents for infrastructure projects for their compliance with European legislation and standards. This mainly concerns: Feasibility Studies; Detailed traffic forecast studies and surveys; Cost-Benefit Analyses; Financial Analyses; and, Environmental Impact Assessments. 40. The project team also recommends creation of a Transport Coordination Unit (TCU) in Turkey which would help support the project planning and implementation of investments along the Core Network. This unit might be established within the existing institutional structure (e.g. within the Ministry of Transport) and help support the decision making process and project monitoring. May 2007 Page 16

17 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND The Republic of Turkey presents many opportunities and challenges for transport planning. The country has a total area of 814,578 km² and 8,333 km of coastline. Furthermore, Turkey lies on the main artery of traffic between Asia and Europe. Since it is bordered by the Black Sea in the North, the Mediterranean Sea in the South and the Aegean Sea in the West it connects the Balkan to the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia and the Black Sea countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia to the Mediterranean countries. The objective of this project is to define a multi-modal transport network (Core Network) designed to extend the European Union's TEN-T into Turkey to: Enable sustainable mobility of persons and goods Ensure freedom of movement of goods, services and people Offer user high-quality infrastructure on acceptable economic terms Include all modes of transport, taking into account their comparative advantages Allow the optimal use of existing capacities be interoperable within modes of transport and encourage intermodality The project follows the same approach used in the original Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment (TINA) process used to help identify the TEN-T in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). The Core Network proposed for Turkey is multi-modal (including roads, railways, seaports, airports and terminals) and is designed to be capable of serving all the important international traffic flows from/to Europe through Turkey, as well as the main national traffic flows within Turkey. Defining a rational multi-modal transport network requires use of a concrete methodology, which implies the acceptance of certain basic rules and the undertaking of the proper steps and side actions. A description of the methodology used in developing Turkey s Core Network is provided in the following paragraphs: In general the elaboration of the project consists of: 1. Develop 2020 Traffic Forecasts A critical element in assessing transport infrastructure needs is understanding current transport demand and developing transport demand forecasts. As part of this project three infrastructure scenarios are tested to evaluate their impact on transport flows. The basis for the traffic forecasts are transport flows within and between the Turkish regions and flows between Turkey and other countries. Observed data are used for passenger and freight transport; however, in some cases insufficient data is available and therefore it is necessary to combine data from various sources and use models to help fill the data gaps. Since different transport forecasting models use different assumptions and therefore could generate different outcomes, it is essential to use models consistent with those used for infrastructure assessment in other European countries as performed by the European Commission services. This makes it possible to compare the outcomes of this project with the results of other European infrastructure planning projects. For more details on the traffic forecasts see Chapter 3. May 2007 Page 17

18 2. Define Core Network According to the project s Terms of References (ToR) Turkey s Core Network should have been defined using the same methodology used in the TINA process for the Central and Eastern European countries. However, after discussions with the beneficiaries it became apparent that this approach would not meet the specific needs of Turkey. Therefore, the beneficiaries Steering Committee and the project team decided to identify the Core Network in Turkey using an adapted methodology using the results of the traffic forecasts and the criteria specified in TEN-T Guidelines 3. This methodology includes two main steps: setting the main rules on which the hypothesis of constructing network should be built by examining the TEN-T Guidelines and TINA documents and their amendments identification of strategic national multi-modal network consisting of nodes and links, which will make Turkey part of the TEN-T by: o Identifying the alignment within the Pan-European Transport Corridors (i.e. Corridor IV) o Identifying the alignment of the TRACECA transport corridor connecting Europe through the Caucasus to Central Asia o Identifying the sections of the BSEC network o Identifying network elements of the European agreement on main international traffic arteries (AGR) and the European agreement on main international railway lines (AGC) o Identifying of major seaports and airports relevant for international long-distance transport o Ensuring the connection of the seaports and airports to the rail and road network o Ensuring the connection of peripheral regions to the main network o Ensuring the connections to the existing TEN-T within the relevant EU Member States See Chapter 4 for a complete description of the proposed Core Network. 3. Assessment of the Core Network Once the Core Network is defined, it is analyzed using different criteria in order to develop a full picture of its operation. The Network is analyzed by status (i.e and 2020), by section and by mode. The Core Network costs are presented in terms of: Mode (i.e. how much has to be spent for railways, roads, ports, etc.); and, Category of work (i.e. how much has to be spent for maintenance, upgrading and new construction). An important focus of the assessment process is the identification of present and future infrastructure bottlenecks. This analysis is completed using internationally accepted rules and criteria of UN/ECE on the relation of traffic and infrastructure capacity. Specifically, the traffic demand per section (under existing and future conditions) is compared to capacity to identify bottlenecks, and to indicate where possible improvements could be made to improve network operations. See Chapter 5 for more information on the Core Network assessment process. 4. Transport Network Improvement Project Prioritisation Turkey reports a large number of on-going and planned transport improvement projects during the data collection phase. These projects are necessary to create the Core Network for Turkey. They include all transport modes and project types (e.g. new construction, rehabilitation, etc.). The project team, in close cooperation with the Steering Committee and the European Commission services, evaluates this pool of projects, in order to propose their rational prioritisation using a Multi-Criteria Analysis. The presents project priorities by mode and in total. See Chapter 6 for more information on the project prioritization. 3 Decision No 1692/96/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on Community guidelines for the development of the trans- European transport network, amended by Decision No 1346/2001/EC regarding seaports, inland ports and intermodal terminals and Decision No 884/2004/EC. May 2007 Page 18

19 5. Geographical Information System (GIS) An important part of the project is the development of a transport network database for Turkey (TINA Information System Turkey or TIS-T) based on a geographic information system. This database is used throughout the study and is provided to the Turkish institutions to be used in future studies and analysis. The database presents the transport network s existing conditions together with information on the network s future development. The information includes data on expected future improvements, cost data, traffic forecasts and alignment information for all transport modes. The TIS-T is fully compatible with the GIS used in the original TINA process for CEEC and the GIS used by the European Commission General Directorate for Transport and Energy (GETIS). It is based on the geodatabase model. The geodatabase consists of two main feature types: nodes, representing airports and seaports; and links, representing railway and road sections. All features are linked with textual attributes presenting technical information, investments and traffic flows. The data interoperability mechanism with GETIS database insures optimal data exchange and transformation. See Chapter 7 and the Annex of the for a complete description of the Geographical Information System. May 2007 Page 19

20 2 WORK APPROACH This chapter describes the approach used to complete the transportation infrastructure needs assessment for Turkey. The general process consists of the following four main stages: Data Collection; Traffic Forecast 2020; Definition and Assessment of Turkey s Core Network; and, TINA Information System. Alternative Scenario The figure above illustrates the specific steps used to complete the four stages. As shown the stages are closely interlinked with each other. A short methodological description of the four stages is given in the following sections. 2.1 DATA COLLECTION One of the most important project activities is data collection. A variety of different data is needed for the whole project to complete the project requirements including: Project and investment data; Technical parameters of the existing and planned infrastructure; and, Traffic flow information including socio-economic information. The project team obtained the relevant data from the following Turkish institutions: DPT (State Planning Organization, SPO) Ministry of Transport and Communication, especially DLH (General Directorate of Railways, Ports and Airports Construction) and Undersecretariat for Maritime Affairs KGM (General Directorate of Highways) TCDD (General Directorate of Turkish State Railways) DHMİ (General Directorate of State Airports Authority) TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) DTM (Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade) The information obtained is following types of documents: Project sheets providing a short overview and description of the planned investment May 2007 Page 20

21 Extracts from budgetary plans Extracts from the institutions databases Extracts from information provided by the Turkish authorities to other EU funded projects (e.g. EUROMED) Feasibility studies for a limited number of projects Maps and project brochures Using these documents, the project team extracted the relevant information and key figures and assessed their relevance for the project tasks. The following types of data were collected: 1. Data on rail and road transport Physical infrastructure (length, number of lanes/tracks, design speed, gradient, etc.) Traffic flow figures Transportation Data (domestic and international passenger and cargo flows) planned investments 2. Data on maritime transport Information on the Turkish maritime transport and its development (statistical data on foreign trade freight, quantity and value of maritime transportation, etc.) Data on existing ports (public and private sector ports, handling capacities and means, etc.) planned investments 3. Data on aviation physical infrastructure traffic (passenger, freight and aircraft traffic) planned investments 2.2 TRAFFIC FORECAST 2020 Traffic forecasts are needed to provide a solid basis for assessing the Turkish transport infrastructure needs. This means that transport demand for each link on the network must be determined under existing conditions and estimated for the future situation in The future situation is estimated under three different scenarios. The traffic forecasts are based upon traffic flows within and between the different Turkish zones and between Turkey and other countries. Passenger and freight transport flows for the base year (2004) are based as much as possible on observed data. When available data is not sufficient, models are used to develop necessary data. Future traffic flows (2020) are estimated using a transport demand model. The model uses a single socioeconomic scenario and three different infrastructure scenarios. Once the network scenarios are defined, the transport demand model is used to develop transport forecasts for In order to generate passenger forecasts, the base year origin-destination (O/D) matrix is adjusted, mainly based on forecasts of socio-economic and demographic conditions at the regional level. Next, generalized travel costs are adjusted based on the assumed changes to the transport networks and other level-of-service components. These results in changes to modal split that are used to forecast future traffic. In order to generate freight forecasts, the pivot point method is used to adjust the base year O/D matrix. This is done by first applying the trade forecasting model making use of forecasted socio-economic variables. In this process a separate growth factor is determined for each O/D relation depending on the expected production and consumption growth in the region (or country/country group when forecasting international transport flows). After developing this trade forecast, the modal split model (which uses the relative changes of travel time and costs of the modes as input) is applied to develop the forecasts. The resulting passenger and freight O/D matrices are then assigned to the three different transport network scenarios. The results of these forecasts are used to help define and assess Turkey s Core Network. May 2007 Page 21

22 2.3 DEFINITION AND ASSESSMENT OF TURKEY S CORE NETWORK A main product of the study is the identification of a Core Transport Network for Turkey. This network is designed to form an extension of the EU s Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) to Turkey. According to the Terms of References (ToR) Turkey s Core Network should be defined using the same methodology used in the TINA process to identify a Core Network for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). However, after discussions with the Turkish institutions it became apparent that this approach does not meet the specific needs of Turkey. The main reason was that the prerequisites for the identification of the multimodal network in Turkey differed from those in the CEEC. There was no corridor concept for international long-distance traffic defined for Turkey agreed upon on the level of Ministers of Transport. Therefore, the Turkish institutions Steering Committee and project team decided to identify the Core Network in Turkey using an adapted methodology covering the needs of Turkey. According to the ToR two main items must be fulfilled by the network definition: The main rules for defining the Core Network should be based on the TEN-T Guidelines and TINA documents and their amendments. The Core Network should also include the strategic national multi-modal network consisting of nodes and links which will make Turkey part of TEN-T network. In the process used to identify Turkey s Core Network, the first item is reflected by using the TEN-T Guidelines as criteria to identify the elements of the Turkish infrastructure networks suitable for a possible future TEN-T in Turkey. Methodological issues implied in the second item are described in the Methodology Report (May 2006) explaining differences between the methodology applied in the CEEC and its adaptations for Turkey including the description of the Preliminary Network for Turkey that was elaborated as a first approach identifying the major transport links in Turkey. However, this first phase was not supported by any traffic flows and forecast results. As mentioned above the main document used to define the Core Network is the EU Guidelines for the Development of the trans-european transport network (Council Decision 1692/96/EC amended by Decisions 1346/2001 and 884/2004). In addition following documents are used in the process of defining Turkey s Core Network: Methodology Report drafted in May 2006; Traffic Forecast 2020 (Interim Report 3, drafted in December 2006) considering sections with the highest traffic volumes; Recommendations of the UN/ECE Working Party on Transport Trends and Economics (WP.5) on the definition of transport infrastructure capacities (Trans/WP.5/R.60) in order to ensure the consistency between the capacity of network components and their expected traffic by the technical standards of the future infrastructure ANALYSIS OF BOTTLENECKS AND IDENTIFICATION OF REQUIRED PROJECTS Once the Core Network is defined, the project team analyzes it in order to develop a complete picture of the future network. As part of this analysis, the network characteristics (such as technical capacity, approved plans and projects etc.) are considered. An important part of the Core Network analysis is to compare available capacities (including approved projects) with expected needs (derived from the traffic forecasts). A very careful approach is needed to complete this bottleneck analysis, since its results are used in various steps of the study, particularly as a base for definition of the Alternative Scenario and the prioritisation of projects. May 2007 Page 22

23 2.3.2 PROJECT PRIORITISATION A number of improvement projects for the Core Network are identified during the bottleneck analysis phase. These projects include all transport modes and to categories (rehabilitation, upgrading, new construction). These projects are prioritized using a scheme (Multi-Criteria Analysis) based on the general criteria listed in the guidelines for the development of the TEN-T Guidelines. 2.4 TINA INFORMATION SYSTEM TIS An important part of the project is the development of a transport network database. This database is used throughout the study. It presents the transport network s existing conditions together with information about the future network development. The detailed information of future development and network status include key financial, traffic and alignment information. The database contains also geographical information for the following transport modes Roads Railways Seaports Airports Together with the precise alignment information on projects and measures to be implemented on the multimodal transport network. To accommodate TIS-T (TINA Information System for Turkey) system requirements and in order to be fully compatible with the GIS system used in TINA process and at the European Commission General Directorate for Transport and Energy (GETIS), the geodatabase data model is selected. The geodatabase consists of two main feature types: nodes, representing airports and seaports; and links, representing road and railway sections. All features are linked with textual attributes presenting technical information, investments and traffic flows. Since most object-oriented modellers have adopted the Unified Modelling Language (UML), which is a standard notation for expressing object models and is endorsed by leading software and database companies, a complete UML data model describing the design of the geodatabase is provided in both textual and numerical form (MS Visio document). The TIS-T system offers tools for creation, editing, management, analysis, display, mapping and reporting of transport, traffic and investments information. The data management capabilities could also be an extremely useful during the inventory of technical and financial conditions along the sections of the network. The system supports data collection and is used to create maps, analyses and reports. It is able to save, update, elaborate and retrieve the received information and print various reports. Using the system, the user is able to review transport networks based on actual transport infrastructure, traffic and investments data, and generate overview maps, statistical reports and technical analyses. The system provides - among other items - the following analytical capabilities: investments identification network status evaluation traffic flows infrastructural bottlenecks identification network development evaluation investments evaluation The TIS-T system includes also an Internet/Intranet mapping application that is developed on the basis of mapping server software. May 2007 Page 23