Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan. Original Issue: 31 October 2013 FINAL REPORT

Transcription

1 Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan Original Issue: 31 October 2013 FINAL REPORT

2 Distribution list Name Executive Leadership Team Seqwater Board Department of Energy and Water Supply Title Final Draft Final Final This document is the property of Seqwater and its issue is controlled. The information contained herein may not be disclosed in whole or in part, either verbally or in writing, without the prior consent of Seqwater. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 2 of 90

3

4 Contents Executive Summary Introduction Purpose Water Supply Asset Plan Requirements Water Supply Asset Plan Development Water Supply Asset Plan Scope Plan Contents Strategic Overview About Seqwater Registered Services Nature and Extent of Services Management of our Assets Bulk Water Supply Investment Planning The Current Planning Environment The System Operating Plan Level of Service Objectives Review of the LOS Distribution System Planning Criteria Bulk Water System Service Specifications South East Queensland Bulk Water Supply System Overview Annual Operations Planning Operational Reliability Range of Operating Conditions Water for the Future Bulk Water Customer Demand Forecasts Adopted Demands Demand Model Development Seasonal Peaking Factors Major Growth Areas Monitoring Bulk Water Demands Bulk Water Supply Network The Role of the Bulk Water Supply System Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 4 of 90

5 6.2 Bulk Water Treatment Overview Bulk Water Treatment Capability Treatment Capability and Entitlement Bulk Water Transport System Connection to Bulk Water Supply Network Identified Planning Initiatives Bulk Water Supply System Capability Assessing System Capability Defining Network Capacity Limitations in the Planning Assessment Most Likely Demand Scenario High Demand Scenario Low Demand Scenario Infrastructure Critical to Maintaining Capability Network Operability Stand-Alone Supply Schemes Planning for the Future Overview Water Security Program Collaborative Planning Financial Forecasts Overview Demand Forecast Assumptions Capital Expenditure Estimate Assumptions Most Likely Demand Financial Forecasts Next Steps Glossary of Acronyms Maps Map 1 SEQ System Operating Plan Area Map 2 Water Treatment Facilities Map 3 Bulk Transport Network North Map 4 Bulk Transport Network South Map 5 Principal Water Sources Map 6 Distribution Water Supply Zones Map 7 Major Growth Areas Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 5 of 90

6 Map 8 Bulk Network Capacity North Map 9 Bulk Network Capacity South Appendix A Review of Bulk Water Customer Demand Forecasts Appendix B Most Likely Demand Scenario Bulk Water Balances Appendix C High Demand Scenario Bulk Water Balances Appendix D Low Demand Scenario Bulk Water Balances Appendix E Consultation Register Appendix F List of Referenced Documents Maps Map 1 Map 2 Map 3 Map 4 Map 5 Map 6 Map 7 Map 8 Map 9 Appendices Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D Appendix E Appendix F SEQ System Operating Plan Area Water Treatment Facilities Bulk Transport Network North Bulk Transport Network South Principal Water Sources Distribution Water Supply Zones Major Growth Areas Bulk Network Capacity North Bulk Network Capacity South Seqwater Review of BWC Demand Forecasts Most Likely Demand Scenario Bulk Water Balances High Demand Scenario Bulk Water Balances Low Demand Scenario Bulk Water Balances Consultation Register List of Referenced Documents Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 6 of 90

7 Executive Summary Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan Introduction The Water Act 2000 requires Seqwater to prepare a Water Security Program (WSP) one year after the regulation prescribing the desired Level of Service (LOS) is made by the Minister. Based on the current timetables, this is likely to occur around June 2014 with the draft Seqwater WSP to be submitted to Department of Energy and Water Supply (DEWS) by June Seqwater has produced this Water Supply Asset Plan (WSAP) to meets its obligations under Schedule 5(2) of the South East Queensland System Operating Plan Revision 5 (SOP). The purpose of the WSAP is to provide an interim planning instrument prior to the submission of the WSP to demonstrate that regional water security is being considered under a consistent and rigorous planning framework and to ensure that the future bulk water supply needs of the region are being proactively and prudently managed. The development of the WSP will make this annual WSAP a redundant planning document. The planning activities undertaken for this WSAP will transition into the WSP and directly inform the delivery of water security in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region including facilitating achieving the desired LOS objectives. LOS Review The SOP is made under the Water Act 2000 to facilitate the achievement of the desired LOS objectives for SEQ. The general principle of the SOP is that water in the region is to be managed on a sustainable and integrated basis to provide secure and reliable supplies of water of acceptable quality for all uses. Recent trends in regional water consumption are well below the planning assumptions that underpin the LOS objectives and there is now an improved understanding of the probable long-term regional bulk water demand scenarios. To determine the impacts of changes in the background assumptions of the LOS objectives and to ensure future prudency and efficiency in the delivery of bulk water supply services; DEWS are currently undertaking a comprehensive review of the LOS objectives (refer Section 3.3), which is likely to result in an increased overall system yield and improved regional water security position. No outcomes of the LOS review have been incorporated into this WSAP; however, these will be developed for the 2014 revisions of the WSAP and for production of the WSP due in Projected Bulk Water Demands Under the WSAP process, each of the Bulk Water Customers (BWCs) provided their annual Board approved, 20 year projected Bulk Water Demand Forecasts (Forecasts) for their respective service areas for High, Medium and Low demand scenario. Seqwater maintains strong in-house bulk water consumption tracking and forecasting capability. On review of the Forecasts provided, it was determined that the BWC High and Medium Forecasts were significantly higher than the Seqwater and State Government Most Likely demand projections of 185 litres per person per day (L/p/d; this figure inflates to 285L/p/d when non-residential consumption is included) which currently form the basis of bulk water pricing. The Forecasts prepared by the BWCs generally reflect the State Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 7 of 90

8 Government previously adopted desired LOS objective of 230L/p/d (375L/p/d total including non-residential consumption). Figure E1 illustrates the projected 20 year BWC and the Seqwater generated regional demand forecast. Figure E1: BWC Demand Forecasts compared with Recorded Demands and Adopted Forecasts Adopting the significantly higher BWC Forecast will potentially bring forward the need for infrastructure in advance of that required. In line with this finding (and with the endorsement of the Department of Energy and Water Supply (DEWS); Seqwater has adopted its own Forecasts for this WSAP (refer Section 5): Most Likely demand (185L/p/d residential use; 285L/p/d total). 10 year High demand (230L/p/d residential use; 375L/p/d total). Low demand (168L/p/d residential use; 258L/p/d total. In addition to the above, Seqwater have generated appropriate demand peaking factors to ensure that the bulk water supply network is planned to accommodate seasonal increases in water consumption (refer Section 5). The Bulk Water Supply System The SEQ bulk water supply system treats and transports potable water to the BWCs for distribution to consumers. The SEQ bulk water supply system assets include: Catchments and dams Rivers, bores and raw water pipelines WTPs and the Gold Coast Desalination Facility (GCDF) The Western Corridor Recycled Water (WCRW) Scheme Bulk transport pipelines, pump stations and reservoirs Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 8 of 90

9 Water quality management facilities In addition to bulk water supply, Seqwater plays a significant role in the region providing open space recreational facilities, with recreational water supply and wastewater treatment plants. Identified Planning Initiatives The Integrated Master Plan to be developed under the WSP (refer Section 8) will focus on providing a better understanding of the expected future operation of the asset portfolio, allowing a targeted program based on whole of system operational flexibility and defined risk tolerance to further generate efficiencies in the renewals schedules. Over the next 5 year period, the plans and investments set out in this WSAP are targeted at ensuring the ongoing ability of the current suite of bulk water assets to meet the projected water demands at the required water quality. To meet the currently adopted LOS objectives, there is no requirement for, or proposal to develop, new sources of water or to substantially increase the capacity that currently exists within the bulk water supply system assets, within the 20 year horizon of this WSAP. Rather, the asset management focus is targeted on effectively and efficiently managing our current asset fleet to deliver compliant treated water reliably (primarily through removal of legacy process and operational constraints, supported by effective strategic and tactical maintenance) under a range of operating conditions. Assessing System Capability To assess the capacity of the SEQ bulk water supply system to meet the LOS objectives and the adopted planning criteria in a cost efficient manner regional bulk water planning was undertaken in five year planning horizons for Average Day (AD) and Mean Day Maximum Month (MDMM) demand conditions. The capability assessments were undertaken for the Most Likely demands, plus a High demand scenario, to review the short-term impacts of unexpectedly high bulk water demands and a Low scenario to review the sensitivity to continued low regional water use. Limitations in the Planning Assessments In line with the requirements in the SOP to demonstrate alignment with the LOS objectives the primary planning scenarios for this WSAP are under ideal conditions (i.e. under good raw water quality when all infrastructure is available at nominal capacity). The generated operating philosophies which the infrastructure capability is assessed against are based on minimising variable operating costs, subject to network constraints and the adopted individual facility unit costs ($/ML). However, this approach has a number of key limitations, outlined in the report: Levels of Service Impacts Integrated Renewals Planning Facility Variable Operating Cost Optimisation Opportunities Each of the above limitations, including ongoing system improvement initiatives will be explored in further detail as part of the Integrated Master Plan under the WSP which will also include climate change predictors, failure scenario analysis of major water supplies including catchment risks and water quality risks. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 9 of 90

10 Capability Conclusions Most Likely demand (185L/p/d residential use; 285L/p/d total) The WSAP demonstrates that the SEQ bulk water supply system can achieve the adopted LOS objectives and meet the adopted planning criteria for a residential demand rebound of 185L/p/d (from the current 168L/p/d) up to Of note for the SEQ bulk water supply network under the Most Likely demand scenario is: Although the bulk water network can maintain the projected 2032 MDMM demands, it is largely at full capacity with most of the SEQ Primary WTPs operating at or near full capacity and the only WTP with significant spare treatment capacity is the GCDF By 2032, the Sunshine Coast WTPs are operating largely at capacity and the Northern Pipeline Interconnector (NPI) is maximising flow into the northern areas of the Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast Regional Councils to supplement supply. This increases the criticality of the NPI system and will trigger the transition of this project from its current design basis as primarily a drought infrastructure project to an operational distribution main The Southern Regional Water Pipeline (SRWP) is generally required to export south from the Mount Crosby WTPs to supplement supply into the Lower Logan and northern Gold Coast areas to accommodate growth through this major development corridor. This mode is also driven by the desire to minimise the use of the GCDF due its relatively high unit production costs. Given that the above assessment is based on ideal operating conditions (including ideal raw water quality), this suggests that major system augmentations/capability improvements may be required prior to 2032 to account for more realistic non-ideal modes of operation. The assessments of these non-ideal modes is currently being progressed under an adopted risk management framework to develop BWC Service Specifications with reliability criteria as part of the Integrated Master Plan under the WSP (refer Section 8). 10 year High demand (230L/p/d residential use; 375L/p/d total) Under ideal operating conditions, the WSAP demonstrates that the SEQ bulk water supply system can meet the 230L/p/d demand scenario (reflecting a rapid and unexpected shortterm increase in water consumption) while achieving the adopted LOS objectives and meeting the adopted planning criteria for at least the next 10 years. Low demand (168L/p/d residential use; 258L/p/d total) Given that the Low demand scenario is comparable (albeit marginally lower) than the Most Likely demand case, with a continuation in current per person demand, the SEQ bulk water supply system can achieve the adopted LOS objectives and meet the adopted planning criteria up to As for the Most Likely demand scenario; given that the assessment is based on ideal operating conditions (including ideal raw water quality), major system augmentations/capability improvements may be required prior to 2032 to account for nonideal modes of operation. Non-ideal modes of operation will be considered as part of the development of the Integrated Master Plan. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 10 of 90

11 Financial Forecasts Seqwater s near term investments are driven by the need to manage risks to ensure our core business consistently and continually supplies compliant bulk treated drinking water to the people of SEQ. As explained in Section 2, operations and practices must also comply with numerous regulatory and legislative drivers. The financial forecasts for these investments within the 0-3 year period are becoming increasingly well-defined as the new organisation becomes established; however, as planning work continues, these forecasts and those for the ensuing periods are likely to change accordingly. In the medium to long term, Seqwater must continue to invest in its asset base to manage risks in order to reliably and efficiently supply compliant bulk water under a range of demand and operating conditions. The programs of works identified in Section 6 will address this along with other planning work related to specific needs if and when they are identified. The long-term asset investment profiles are currently being reprojected based on the improved understanding of risk, asset condition, efficiency opportunities, benchmarking studies, and redefined business drivers for the newly formed entity. For this WSAP the financial forecasts represent estimates based on the current level of knowledge of risk and asset condition from work largely undertaken by the previous bulk water entities (Seqwater, LinkWater, SEQ WGM and the QWC), again noting that the financial forecasts will be updated in subsequent annual revisions of the WSAP and as a key component of the WSP. The Water Security Program With the closure of the Queensland Water Commission (QWC), the regional water security planning functions of the Commission have transitioned to Seqwater. The Water Act 2000 places a legislated obligation on Seqwater to undertake short and long term planning to ensure that it can meet growing demand for safe, secure, and reliable bulk water supply in SEQ at least-cost to our customers and to be appropriately responsive to emerging security issues. The merger of the previously separate bulk water entities has provided considerable opportunities for Seqwater to integrate its planning and operational activities which were previously undertaken by three separate entities in addition to the QWC. The merger of the entities also provides an excellent opportunity (and an obligation) to revisit how we integrate all planning, including for catchments, recreation, and achieving whole of system integration at least-cost. To achieve the Seqwater wider business requirements as well as to satisfy the legislative requirements of the WSP the following are the outcomes that Seqwater will seek to achieve in the WSP: Operate and optimise the use and management of the current asset portfolio Outline the augmentations required and the demand management measures to meet growth, water quality and short term continuity of supply requirements Outline the redundancy, operational and maintenance measures that are required to manage short term continuity of system supply related issues Determine the measures and augmentations required to manage extended supply disruptions from drought. The specific obligations of the WSP are detailed further in Section 8. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 11 of 90

12 1. Introduction Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan 1.1 Purpose Seqwater has produced this Water Supply Asset Plan (WSAP) to meets its obligations under Schedule 5 (2) of the South East Queensland System Operating Plan Revision 5 (SOP). In line with these obligations, the purpose of the WSAP is to demonstrate that regional water security is delivered under a consistent and rigorous planning framework and ensure that the future bulk water supply needs of the region are being proactively and prudently managed. These planning activities will directly inform the delivery of water security in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region including achieving the desired Level of Service (LOS) objectives. 1.2 Water Supply Asset Plan Requirements The SOP requires Seqwater to: a) prepare a plan (Water Supply Asset Plan) demonstrating the plans, programs of work and associated budgets, processes and procedures in place to ensure the consolidated SEQ water demand forecast can be met; b) describe the current capability of their assets to deliver services under a range of operating conditions, describe how existing assets will be maintained and renewed, how decisions will be made to retire assets; and how new assets will be identified and delivered; c) where appropriate, the Authority should also demonstrate any linkages with the SEQ service providers Water Netserv Plans; d) provide copies of any referenced documents in electronic form to accompany their respective Water Supply Asset Plans, for example, Drinking Water Quality Management Plans, Recycled Water Management Plans, System Leakage Management Plans, Strategic Asset Management Plans, Manufactured Water Readiness Plan and/or other Risk Management Plans; e) consult with relevant parties in preparing its Water Supply Asset Plan and provide evidence of consultation to ensure all reasonable options have been appropriately investigated and considered prior to identification of specific capital solutions to meet the consolidated SEQ water demand forecast; and f) provide a Board approved copy of the Water Supply Asset Plan to the Chief Executive (of the Department of Energy and Water Supply; DEWS) no later than 31 October each calendar year. In addition to the above, Seqwater must publish this Water Supply Asset Plan on the Authority s website ( 30 days after submission or within 30 days of receiving comments from the Chief Executive of the Department of Energy and Water Supply (DEWS). There remain a number of ongoing water supply investigations in SEQ (e.g. recommendations of the Flood Commission of Inquiry, DEWS LOS review) and State Government policy decisions (e.g. Queensland s water sector: a 30-year strategy) that may impact on the future operation of the SEQ bulk water supply system however this WSAP is based on current infrastructure planning initiatives and operating policies. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 12 of 90

13 1.3 Water Supply Asset Plan Development The development of this WSAP has been based on a long history of planning partnerships with bulk water supply network partners in particular sub-regional planning around key clusters of Bulk Supply Points (BSPs). Consultation directly related to the development of this 2013 WSAP has mainly been with the Bulk Water Customers (BWCs) and DEWS, and has included: Bulk water demand forecasting Bulk water supply network modelling Data sharing and infrastructure capability assumptions Individual presentations on proposed capital solutions proposed in this WSAP were undertaken with all BWC infrastructure planning departments, in line with the obligations under the SOP. Additionally Seqwater consults and interacts with a wide range of other Government stakeholders as part of its core business. Appendix E tabulates key consultation history and summarises some of the key interactions referred to above. 1.4 Water Supply Asset Plan Scope While this WSAP takes a whole of system view to the management of bulk water supply to meet regional treated water supply requirements, the scope of the plans, programs of work and associated budgets contained in this plan are limited as follows: Seqwater s assets associated with the various agricultural irrigation schemes are considered to be entirely out of scope for this WSAP, including any and all expenditure on these assets as they are not currently used for the supply of treated drinking water to the people of SEQ and correspondingly were not included in the bulk water demands developed as part of this process. The management of Seqwater s wastewater management systems (100+) is not considered within the scope of this document, although it is noteworthy that quite a number of these are located within the water supply catchments and therefore may impact raw water quality. Similarly, Seqwater s recreational Water Treatment Plants (WTPs; Borumba Downs, Atkinson, Moogerah, and Maroon WTPs) are not considered within the scope of this WSAP, as they are not currently used for the supply of treated drinking water for which demand projections have been addressed throughout this WSAP development process. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 13 of 90

14 1.5 Plan Contents The WSAP is partitioned as follows: Section 2: Strategic Overview Provides a high level strategic overview of Seqwater in the context of the provision of potable water to urban areas in SEQ Section 3: The Current Planning Environment Provides an overview of the current primary drivers for bulk water supply system planning in SEQ Section 4: South East Queensland Bulk Water Supply System Provides a strategic overview of the SEQ bulk water supply system operational planning and risks Section 5: Water for the Future Provides an overview of the Water Demand Forecasts and the demand distribution models developed to assess the capability of the bulk water supply network Section 6: Bulk Water Supply Network Provides an overview of the potable bulk water treatment and transport system in SEQ Section 7: Bulk Water Supply System Capability Describes the capability of the bulk supply network to deliver services to meet the Water Demand Forecasts and achieve the LOS objectives and identifies critical bulk water infrastructure Section 8: Planning for the Future Outlines the current program for delivering integrated, regional bulk water supply system planning under a Water Security Program Section 9: Financial Forecasts Provides the asset investment profile associated with delivering the adopted Water Demand Forecasts Section 10: Next Steps Provides for future direction and implementation of the recommendations in this WSAP. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 14 of 90

15 2. Strategic Overview Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan 2.1 About Seqwater Seqwater is the Queensland Government Statutory Authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply for SEQ, as well as managing catchment health and providing recreational facilities to the community. Seqwater was established on 1 January 2013 as part of water reform under the South East Queensland Water (Restructuring) Act 2007 (Restructuring Act) through a merger of the SEQ Water Grid Manager, LinkWater and the former Seqwater. The organisation has also taken on the regional water security and efficiency responsibilities previously performed by the Queensland Water Commission (QWC). Under the Restructuring Act, Seqwater is responsible to the Minister for Energy and Water Supply. Seqwater manages more than $9.8 billion of traditional and climate-resilient water supply assets to ensure a consistent, high-quality supply to the people of SEQ (refer Map 1). These assets include: 26 dams and 47 weirs 46 operational water treatment plants 600km of bulk water supply pipelines The GCDF The Western Corridor Recycled Water (WCRW) Scheme Associated pump stations and network reservoirs Approximately 65,000 hectares of land tenure across SEQ 660 km of supplemented watercourse Wastewater management systems (100+) Various agricultural irrigation scheme assets Recreational assets For the purposes of bulk water supply to SEQ, ownership and management of WTPs, dams, weirs and other built assets rests solely with Seqwater. However, the majority of land from which the water is sourced is owned by others. As owner, manager and operator of the SEQ bulk water supply network, Seqwater s functions include flood management, maintaining and renewing bulk water treatment and transport infrastructure, managing water quality in the bulk water transport network and planning for long term water supply for the region, including for growth. Seqwater s network stretches from Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, to Tugun on the Gold Coast, North Stradbroke Island in the east to Gatton in the west (refer Figure 1). This network currently delivers around 750 Megalitres per day (ML/day) of potable bulk water from Seqwater s WTPs to a number of Bulk Water Customers (BWCs) and ultimately to homes and businesses in SEQ. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 15 of 90

16 Figure 1: Major Assets Map Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 16 of 90

17 2.2 Registered Services The Queensland Bulk Water Supply Authority (trading as Seqwater) is a registered service provider (SP507) with the Queensland Department Energy and Water Supply (DEWS) and provides water supplies from the following catchments and schemes (refer Table 1). Table 1: Registered Services Registered Water Services Catchments Mary Valley Mooloolah River Maroochy River Caboolture River North Pine River Upper Brisbane River Stanley River Lockyer Valley (Upper, Central, Lower) Warrill Valley Lower Brisbane River Tingalpa Creek Logan / Albert Rivers Nerang River Brisbane Groundwater Bribie Island Groundwater North Stradbroke Island Groundwater Schemes Manufactured Water Western Corridor Recycled Water (WCRW) Scheme Gold Coast Desalination Plant (GCDP) Schemes SEQ Water Supply Grid South East Queensland Water Grid (various regions) Northern Pipeline Interconnector Eastern Pipeline Interconnector Southern Regional Water Pipeline Network Integration Pipeline (Gold Coast) Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 17 of 90

18 2.3 Nature and Extent of Services Seqwater has various obligations that at a high level could be summarised as being to deliver sustainable and secure water supply services for the SEQ region, comprising the local governments of: Brisbane City Council Gold Coast City Council Ipswich City Council Lockyer Valley Regional Council Logan City Council Moreton Bay Regional Council Redland City Council Scenic Rim Regional Council Somerset Regional Council Sunshine Coast Regional Council; and Any local government area that may be included under regulation. Seqwater supplies seven (7) BWCs under nine (9) Bulk Water Supply Agreements dated 1 January 2013, approved by the Minister of Energy and Water Supply (refer Table 2). The quantity and quality of the water supply to each customer is detailed in each of the Bulk Water Supply Agreements. Table 2: Registered Bulk Water Customers Registered Bulk Water Customers Queensland Urban Utilities Unitywater Redland City Council Logan City Council Gold Coast City Council Toowoomba Regional Council Stanwell Corporation Limited Customer s Business Water Distributor - Retailer Water Distributor - Retailer Local Government, Water Distributor - Retailer Local Government, Water Distributor - Retailer Local Government, Water Distributor - Retailer Local Government, Water Distributor - Retailer Electrical Power Generator: a) Tarong & Tarong North Power Stations, Nanango b) Swanbank Power Station, Ipswich 2.4 Management of our Assets Seqwater employs the concept of an Asset Management Framework to support the development and application of asset related processes and activities. The Asset Management Framework can be thought of as part of the wider Business or Management System Framework which is currently being scoped to cover the activities of the new Seqwater. The Asset Management Framework is also being reviewed for the new Seqwater to ensure that for asset related investment and asset related decision-making: Key business processes are identified and developed. Key business documentation is identified and developed. The role of input documentation is recognised. The interrelationship/s between processes, documents and the deliverables are understood. All of these are clearly articulated, documented and communicated to staff. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 18 of 90

19 Figure 4 provides the principal graphic for description of the revised Asset Management Framework, and includes identification of five phases of asset management. Figure 4: Seqwater s Asset Management Framework The five phases have been identified as: Direction and Strategic Alignment System Masterplanning and Investment Profile Validation, Planning and Investment Commitment Implementation Operations and Management in Use For each phase, key deliverables have been identified as the primary documents whereby the organisation can demonstrate: 1. The effective delivery of the phase activities 2. Compliance with the Statement of Obligations requirement to develop and implement plans. In managing its assets through the Asset Management Framework, Seqwater: Ensures prudent asset management is standard business practice and is undertaken in accordance with Seqwater s Asset Management Framework and that an integrated approach is undertaken across the business. Undertakes a cross-agency collaborative approach to regional asset planning. Manages natural and built assets using a whole of life cycle approach that balances performance, costs and risks in accordance with best appropriate asset management techniques. Uses an integrated whole-of-catchment, whole-of-system approach to optimise multibarrier water treatment Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 19 of 90

20 Makes asset investment and management decisions based on a rigorous, documented whole-of-life, whole-of-system approach that considers: built and natural asset and non-asset solutions. opportunities for achieving multi-value outcomes. prudency and efficiency of both asset investment and asset life cycle costs. long term benefits and risks to Seqwater, the community and the environment. Continually maintains, monitors, audits and strives to improve our asset performance to ensure Seqwater remains responsive to service delivery needs, resilient to critical events and will sustainably meet Seqwater s strategic goals and targets. Measures the benefits from implementation of asset policies and strategies in reviewing its strategic asset management objectives. Implements a consistent asset management strategy to achieve systematic and appropriate asset management best-practice outcomes. To do this, the Asset Management Framework includes elements which: Identify current and future capacity shortfalls, service levels gaps, poor condition assets, unacceptable risks and efficiency opportunities. Identify and evaluate works programs to address the work needs. Plan, prioritise, schedule, deliver and review asset investment programs. Seqwater has an Asset Management Policy Statement that includes a number of statements each of which establish a position in regard to items covered within the Statement of Obligations. These statements have implications for: Seqwater s willingness to invest The organisations approach to industry and regional collaboration and leadership. As noted above, as part of the formation of the new Seqwater, a comprehensive review of our asset management approach is under progression in order to improve and develop the tools and processes supporting the overall Asset Management Framework. 2.5 Bulk Water Supply Investment Planning As part of the formation of the new Seqwater, a comprehensive review of our asset management approach is progressing. In developing the asset investment program, prioritisation criteria will continue to include strong reliance on business drivers. Seqwater has particular regard to its existing service requirements, the current framework of compliance obligations including those pertaining to water quality and any scope for delivering immediate efficiencies. In determining its asset investment program, Seqwater also has regard to its medium-term view of its operating environment in terms of projected demand. As actual demand and projected demand can and do often vary, Seqwater takes an approach that some investment will occur as nominated demand triggers are reached, thus ensuring investments are made at the appropriate time, and not before time. The level of accuracy in forecasting the asset investment program can be expected to be less reliable the further out the costs are expected to arise. Even for its short term program, Seqwater recognises that factors relating to the present stage of its development will result in Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 20 of 90

21 its forecasts being less reliable than would be the case for a mature organisation with a better historical profile of its full asset base. An integral part of the Asset Management Framework and its workings is the associated governance structure for the approval of investment, and all asset investment will be approved via an appropriate governance forum to ensure the need is fully understood, all relevant options have been explored, and the necessary investment is prudent and represents value for money. Such an approvals and governance approach as projects move from initiation through to ultimate approval and implementation will ensure that each and every investment is both prudent and efficient. Seqwater manages and prioritises its asset investment program in a ongoing manner making adjustments, where necessary, in response to changing asset requirements and changes in the external operating environment, such as amendments to customer contracts or other compliance obligations. Seqwater has also updated the program in accordance with Government s recent cost reduction objectives relating to water pricing and cost-efficiency obligations. Seqwater s asset investment planning processes are subject to ongoing development, consistent with asset priorities and the emerging maturity of the business. The planning process is subject to ongoing review and refinement as the organisation has sought to better accommodate, consolidate, standardise and prioritise the full suite of assets it manages. Some refinement is still required before these processes are fully developed. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 21 of 90

22 3. The Current Planning Environment Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan 3.1 The System Operating Plan The SOP is made under the Water Act 2000 to facilitate the achievement of the desired LOS objectives for SEQ. The general principle of the SOP is that water in the region is to be managed on a sustainable and integrated basis to provide secure and reliable supplies of water of acceptable quality for all uses. Whilst the overall desired LOS objectives provide a general basis for SEQ bulk water supply system planning, the current planning framework in the SOP creates a number of existing and emerging challenges for true integrated bulk water supply system planning: The Statement of Obligations requires Seqwater to undertake planning under a leastcost framework with consideration of supply and demand side options. Whilst this will be advanced as part of Seqwater s obligation under the Water Security Program (WSP; refer Section 8); this is currently not possible in the absence of an Integrated Master Plan that has been clearly coordinated and assimilated with BWC infrastructure planning. The current absence of an Integrated Master Plan creates interagency risks where investment/lack of investment by one water infrastructure owner can affect the prudency and efficiency of investment decisions by others The Forecasts provided by the BWCs are not in sufficient detail to permit a proper assessment of the capability of the SEQ bulk water supply system (aside from the issues with alignment of expected future water consumption). Seqwater has developed its own water supply models in order to produce this WSAP (refer Section 4); however, these do not reflect the current LOS objectives in the SOP and are not necessarily consistent with those developed by the BWCs for formulating their Netserv Plans. Future Integrated Master Planning will seek to obtain much greater granularity for the distribution of demands, in particular for new development areas Seqwater is obligated by the SOP to describe the current capability of its infrastructure, under a range of operating conditions. The SOP does not nominate the range of operating conditions that are required to be considered. These have been developed based on known and potential operational issues (refer Section 3); however, future planning should be under a risk management framework to determine key vulnerabilities in the SEQ bulk water supply system The current WSAP assumes that the capacity of infrastructure will be retained into the future, which may require significant renewals over the life of this WSAP (20 years). No consideration has yet been given to other infrastructure options and the economic efficiency of this approach. This is not consistent with a least-cost planning framework and will be addressed as part of the Integrated Master Plan (refer Section 8). 3.2 Level of Service Objectives The South East Queensland Water Strategy (Strategy) was developed during the Millennium Drought and further updated in 2010 and aimed to reflect the community s attitude towards water. The vision was encapsulated by three general themes of: use less, be supply ready and manage efficiently and this was articulated through the setting of desired LOS objectives. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 22 of 90

23 The Strategy s vision and the desired LOS objectives are dependent upon water supply planning that: Ensures that the system has the capacity to maintain adequate water supply over the long term Involves a drought response plan to protect against water shortages through planned implementation of appropriate demand management measures and construction of new climate resilient supplies, such as desalination In the case of extreme drought or critical water shortage, provides a contingency plan to ensure that the basic water needs of SEQ can be met for the duration of that situation. This water security vision is to be achieved by: Balancing community expectations of water security, quality and cost Embedding water efficiency throughout the water supply and demand chain Managing water security through diversified and integrated water supplies and drought preparedness Improving environmental outcomes, including healthier waterways, through integrated strategic planning and catchment management. The current desired LOS objectives are quantified as follows: 1. During normal operations sufficient water will be available to meet an average total urban demand of 375 litres per person per day (including residential, non-residential and system losses), of which 230 litres per person per day is attributed to residential demand. 2. Sufficient investment will occur in the water supply system with the objective of ensuring that: medium level restrictions will not occur more than once every 25 years on average medium level restrictions need only achieve a targeted reduction in consumption of 15 per cent below the total consumption volume in normal operations the frequency of triggering drought response infrastructure will be not more than once every 100 years on average the total volume of water stored by all key water grid storages will not decline to 10 per cent of their combined total water storage capacity more than once every 1,000 years on average the total volume of water stored by all key water grid storages will not decline to 5 per cent of their combined total water storage capacity more than once every 10,000 years on average none of Wivenhoe Dam, Hinze Dam or Baroon Pocket Dam will reach minimum operating levels more often than once every 10,000 years on average. 3. It is expected that medium level restrictions will last longer than six months no more than once every 50 years on average. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 23 of 90

24 3.3 Review of the LOS The Strategy incorporating the LOS objectives was developed as an adaptable blueprint for maintaining water security in SEQ. As noted in the Queensland Water Commission (QWC) South East Queensland Water Strategy Annual Report 2012 (QWC 2012 Annual Report), actual regional water consumption remains well below the planning assumptions adopted for the Strategy with the Most Likely long term average regional water demand currently predicted to be around 285L/p/d (including residential, non-residential and system losses), of which 185L/p/d is directly attributed to residential demand. In parallel to this improved understanding of the probable long-term regional water demand scenarios, the QWC 2012 Annual Report further notes that an improved understanding of the regional water balance model has been achieved in recent time through modelling the effects of changes to base assumptions and alterations of operating scenarios. This work has highlighted the implications of local variations in demand and how this could potentially alter the timing, in response to increased demand, for: Changes to the SEQ bulk water supply system operations to maximise the benefit of existing supplies New infrastructure to either maximise existing supplies or to build additional water supplies, constructed at a regional or at a local/sub-regional level, or Implementation of regional or sub-regional demand management measures. To determine the impacts of changes in the background assumptions underpinning the LOS objectives and to ensure future prudency and efficiency in the delivery of bulk water supply services, DEWS is currently undertaking a comprehensive review of the existing LOS objectives. Five main factors are currently under review: Demand how much water is required to meet the community s needs? Yield on average, how much water can be supplied by the bulk water supply system each year? Infrastructure when might new bulk water supplies/infrastructure be required to provide enough water to meet the community s needs? Restrictions if water restrictions are introduced during drought periods, what impact would this have socially, environmentally and financially, including on future infrastructure expenditure? Potential cost what are the broad cost implications of different LOS objectives? DEWS will work with the water service providers across SEQ, including Seqwater, during a targeted consultation process to define the final LOS objectives to be developed. Once these new objectives are determined, the new LOS criteria will be prescribed in regulation (nominally by mid-2014). Once new LOS are prescribed, Seqwater will have 12 months to develop a revised WSP, in line with obligations under the Water Act 2000 (refer Section 8). Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 24 of 90

25 3.4 Distribution System Planning Criteria Under the SEQ Water Supply and Sewerage Design & Construction Code (SEQ WS&S D&C Code; July 2013), the BWCs collectively established key criteria to be applied in the planning and design of water supply infrastructure to meet current and future needs of the SEQ region. It is envisaged that adopting these criteria across the region should ensure application of consistent strategic thinking in the system planning process. Whilst these guidelines have expressly been developed by the BWCs for application to non-trunk distribution networks and not for the bulk system components; in the interests of integrated, catchment-to-tap planning, it is imperative that bulk system planning is undertaken considering these criteria. There are a number of minor regional variations in these design criteria to account for local interpretations; however, they generally provide for the following: Trunk water transport system capable of supplying water to service reservoirs at a rate equal to a mean daily demand in a maximum month, referred to as a Mean Day Maximum Month (MDMM) Pump stations capable of meeting the required daily duty within 20 hours with standby capacity matching the largest single pumping unit Service reservoirs capable of: Meeting the demand under three consecutive Maximum Days without supplementation or depletion of emergency storage Providing emergency storage of 0.5ML or as required for risk management A pipe reticulation network capable of supplying: Water under gravity from service reservoirs/elevated towers Water to the Australian Drinking Water Quality Guidelines (ADWG) Pressure not less than 22m at the property boundary under peak hourly demands Pressure not greater than 55m at the property boundary (new development) or 80m (established development). Much of Seqwater s bulk transport network also provides a reticulation role; however, the BWCs are responsible for ensuring that their customers are serviced in accordance with the WS&S D&C Code. For the purpose of this WSAP, defining Seqwater s infrastructure as capable of accommodating the Forecast does not mean that the infrastructure is necessarily capable of also accommodating the local reticulation requirements of the WS&S D&C Code (e.g. peak hour pressure); however, Seqwater will continue to engage with the BWCs for future planning to ensure that integrated solutions are provided across the full supply chain. 3.5 Bulk Water System Service Specifications There are currently no directly specified SEQ bulk water supply system service specifications (Service Specifications); however Seqwater has a number of bulk water supply objectives derived from the SOP, Statement of Obligations, Bulk Water Supply Agreements and the Bulk Water Code. These are essentially defined in terms of providing an integrated bulk water supply service that is able to achieve a prescribed set of water security risk criteria, with consideration to prudent, efficient, least-cost planning outcomes. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 25 of 90

26 The current bulk water supply network operates to effectively meet bulk water demands from the BWCs at all times. Given the significant costs associated with any infrastructure investment in the bulk water supply network; defined Service Specifications for the SEQ bulk water supply system will be developed as part of the WSP (refer Section 8). This will be undertaken with a view to the most cost-effective use of existing infrastructure, minimising operating costs and defining risk-based criteria for network operational flexibility (reliability, resilience and redundancy). The objective of the SEQ bulk water supply system is to efficiently provide potable water from the nominated treated water sources, downstream to the BWC reticulation service reservoirs, while managing water quality and system reliability. For the purpose of this WSAP to demonstrate the capability of the bulk water supply system to accommodate the Forecasts; preliminary infrastructure planning criteria have been adopted to enable assessments of network capability The preliminary planning criteria are structured around providing integration with the BWCs distribution system planning criteria adopted for Netserv Planning and sustainably delivering the Forecast bulk water demands across an appropriate range of operating conditions (refer Section 4). Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 26 of 90

27 4. South East Queensland Bulk Water Supply System 4.1 Overview The water supply schemes in SEQ are characterised by a number of relatively small, Nonconnected communites that are serviced by a single WTP drawing water from a range of sources some of which include run of river which are subject to a range of conditions including land use and water quantity and quality issues. The other sytems are connected bulk water supply system servicing the main population centres of the region (refer Map 2) The combined SEQ bulk water supply system (non-connected and connected) has a defined LOS supply capacity of 470,000 ML/a with current average day demand being about 280,000ML/a. The LOS supply capacity is not how much water can be treated but how much water is reliably available from the system while meeting a specified set of long-term water security performance criteria for an adopted infrastructure configuration and demand distribution. The current combined regional water treatment capacity, being how much water can be produced if it was available, is just above 650,000ML/a. Figure 6 shows this concept from a ML/d perspective comparing treatment capacity with AD demand and MDMM. This shows that the combined regional treatment capacity (under good raw water quality conditions) is currently approximately twice the MDMM demand required for the SEQ bulk water supply system. Figure 6: Nominal Treatment Capacity Compared with Current Actual Demands Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 27 of 90

28 Given the current supply-demand balance, this provides the ability to minimise costs across the bulk water supply network by maximising the use of the most cost-effective WTPs (generally the larger facilities) and as demand approaches capacity, operation can transition from a cost efficiency mode to a maximise yield mode. There are some isolated areas of the SEQ bulk water supply system where demands are approaching capacity or yield which are under specific investigation (e.g. Image Flat, Canungra and Dayboro). 4.2 Annual Operations Planning Seqwater completes an Annual Operations Plan based on current bulk water demands and water supply outlook every six months. The current version published in May 2013 is available at The current mode of operation has the SEQ bulk water supply system supplied primarily from eight WTPs, with six additional WTPs available to provide supplementary supplies in response to increased demands, or supply interruptions to other infrastructure. Previous assessments have demonstrated that service will not be required from 7 WTPs for at least five years, and most likely more than fifteen years. In some instances this increases annual operational costs such as transport; however, it delays much higher annualised capital costs. Based on the current Annual Operations Plan and the projected short to medium operation of the SEQ bulk water supply system, the proposed operational regime of each WTP is summarised in Table 4. Table 4: Proposed Short to Medium Operation of Connected SEQ WTPs Primary WTPs Supplementary WTPs WTPs from which supply is not required, at least for five years Noosa Banksia Beach 2 Brisbane Aquifer Project 5 Landers Shute Capalaba Enoggera North Pine Ewen Maddock South Maclean 5 North Stradbroke Island Gold Coast Desalination Plant Caboolture 5 Molendinar Mt Crosby West Bank Woodford 5 Mt Crosby East Bank Image Flat Western Corridor Recycled Water Scheme 3 Mudgeeraba Murrumba Downs 4 Petrie 1 Notes 1. Currently subject to detailed investigation with a view to decommissioning the facility and connecting the Petrie demand zone to the North Pine system after which time supply from the WTP will no longer be required 2. This plant has been operated using free chlorine as primary disinfectant to assist with water quality outcomes in the Unitywater network. This is likely to continue while outcomes are positive but will be reviewed periodically in collaboration with Unitywater 3. Current planning is looking to temporarily decommission the WCRW Scheme 4. Murrumba Downs advanced water treatment plant provides recycled water to Amcor. The plant is owned and operated by Unitywater which is then paid for by Seqwater. Negotiations are currently occurring to decommission the plant 5. Decommissinong plans are under review and it is unlikey that these facilities will be operated in the future. For the purposes of long-term planning for this WSAP; Table 4 also represents the currently preferred basis for the strategic planning of the bulk water supply system. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 28 of 90

29 The Annual Operations Plan also identifies triggers, at which point we will need: Increased supply from WTPs during summer peak periods Supply from the Gold Coast Desalination Facility when key storages fall to 60% Further planning has identified that the Enoggera WTP may need to be recommissioned: When demand approaches the LOS yield Prior to storages falling to 40%. However, based on the current adopted LOS yield of the SEQ bulk water supply system, projected water demands and regional dam storage levels these triggers are unlikely to be reached for at least 10 years. 4.3 Operational Reliability The resilience of the bulk water supply system has been demonstrably improved due to the construction of the regional interconnector pipelines. Previously, the major population centres in SEQ were supplied from eight separate water systems with minimal connectivity. While some of these systems included multiple supplies, many did not. The construction of the SEQ bulk water supply system means that most major demand zones are able to be supplied from multiple sources. The principal source of supply for each demand zone based on the current mode of operation is provided on Map 5. For an interconnected supply scheme, reliability is assessed at a system level to determine the consequence of asset failure; rather than each individual infrastructure element being maintained to a common level of reliability. By adopting a risk and consequence based approach to maintenance, different reliability standards may be required at individual facilities. Similarly, across an integrated water supply chain, operational reliability for the nonconnected communities is taken in consideration of the BWC s asset capability (e.g. distribution reservoir storage). As part of ongoing operations contingency planning, Seqwater is undertaking reliability assessments to determine existing vulnerabilities to loss of supply across the bulk water supply system. The proposed Operating Strategy outlined in Section 4.2 will not have a material impact on the reliability of the SEQ bulk water supply system. Multiple sources of supply will continue to be available across most of the connected SEQ bulk water supply system. Any potential increased risks due to not requiring supply from some WTPs are considered to be manageable, using the combination of alternative sources, along with bulk, distribution and reticulation storage capacity; however, there are currently some notable examples (e.g. Image Flat WTP supply zone). For this to occur successfully requires contingency planning with well-defined triggers where the operational mode is changed from a cost saving/water quality mode to a quantity mode where all reservoirs/storages are kept full in preparation for an event and then fully utilised during an event. This may also include changing the direction of operation of the regional interconnectors if considered necessary and may also include utilising higher cost plants in preparation and/or during the event such as the GCDF. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 29 of 90

30 4.4 Range of Operating Conditions The primary intention of this WSAP is to demonstrate compliance with the LOS objectives. The LOS objectives are based on meeting a range of long term water security related performance criteria such that they are based on AD operation. However, the bulk water supply system must be capable of supplying water to customers through the course of the year, irrespective of the inherent fluctuations in seasonal consumption. Whilst per capita demands remain historically low due to the ongoing impacts of demand efficiency measures, demand still varies throughout the year with the largest impact being weather related. During winter, demands are typically lower and as such bulk water supply system maintenance is typically completed this time of year with reservoirs operated at a lower volume to reduce water aging issues. During summer especially during hot dry periods demands increase and assets are utilised more often to provide a reliable supply. To assess reliability of supply to end consumers (and to demonstrate alignment with the BWC Netserv Plans) the key operating conditions provided in Table 5 have been adopted for the capability assessments. Table 5: Key Operating Conditions to be Adopted for Capability Assessment Scenario Average day demand (AD) Peak month demand Planning Intention Demonstrate a sustainable regional bulk water balance Demonstrate network is capable of sustained high demand Primary Planning Criteria Within individual raw water source entitlement Within WTP and bulk transport network capacity Network Demand Scenario AD (Low, Medium and High) MDMM (Low, Medium and High) Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 30 of 90

31 5. Water for the Future Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan 5.1 Bulk Water Customer Demand Forecasts In accordance with the requirements of the SOP Seqwater received Board approved, base, upper and lower series 20 year Demand Zone Water Demand Forecasts (Forecasts) from each BWC by 31 May On review of the Forecasts provided by each of the BWC it was determined that these were significantly higher than the Seqwater and State Government Most Likely demand projections of 185L/p/d residential use (285L/p/d total) which currently form the basis for bulk water pricing. The Forecasts prepared by the BWCs generally reflect the State Government desired LOS obligation of 230L/p/d residential use (375L/p/d total). These Forecasts therefore are proposing future water consumption significantly higher than currently analysis would suggest is reasonable. Adopting these Forecasts as the basis for system planning will in turn potentially bring forward the need for infrastructure in advance of when it is actually required. In addition to the issues associated with using a potentially high base line forecast, there were issues with differing assumptions, methodologies used and information gaps (refer Appendix A). Figure 7 displays the consolidated regional Forecasts from the BWCs, the previous five years of recorded and the Seqwater internally generated Most Likely forecast. Figure 7: BWC Forecasts compared with Recorded Consumption and Seqwater Most Likely Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 31 of 90

32 5.2 Adopted Demands As part of core business processes, Seqwater maintains water consumption forecasting capabilities to review and monitor existing consumption and potential future water demand. Applying these demand forecasting capabilities Seqwater concludes that the average regional demand is likely to rebound to about 285L/p/d, across SEQ as a whole, consisting of: Average residential consumption of about 185L/p/d Average non-residential consumption of about 100L/p/d, including system losses. This projection: Aligns the water demand forecasts used with the State Government price path and current LOS review considerations of the DEWS Reflects actual consumption since 2008, based on assessing bulk water billing data and SEQ service provider account information collected by the Water Hub information system Is consistent with Seqwater short term demand forecasts based on a continuation of the current trends and average weather conditions Incorporates a likely level of potential future behavioural change. The approach based on using the above demand of 285L/p/d (185L/p/d residential consumption) as the main focus for planning purposes was endorsed on 23 August 2013 by DEWS. In addition, DEWS requested that a demand projection based on a total average water use 375L/p/d (230L/p/d residential consumption) be utilised as an upper sensitivity assessment as this is included in the current LOS objectives. Seqwater s assessments show no indication of demand rebounding to a level close to 230L/p/d over any time frame and as such this level is believed to be an unreasonably high level of demand on which to base planning assumptions at this point in time. As such this scenario is only being included as an upper level sensitivity assessment in this Plan. Therefore, the following demand forecast scenarios underpinning the capability assessments have been adopted for this WSAP (refer Figure 8): Most Likely demand (185L/p/d residential use; 285L/p/d total). Developed from analysis of actual BWCs demand and a most likely rebound in water use due to behavioural change, taking into consideration prior water efficiency impacts. This represents the current understanding of the long-term, regional bulk water demand and is what is currently adopted in bulk water supply pricing 10 year High demand (230L/p/d residential use; 375L/p/d total). A 10 year planning horizon, up until the current LOS yield of the system is reached. The High demand scenario is not a basis for actual infrastructure planning; however, more so to develop an understanding of the current surplus capacity across the bulk water supply system and to identify any emerging issues should regional bulk water demands experience an unexpected, significant and rapid increase prior to the finalisation of the WSP Low demand (168L/p/d residential use; 258L/p/d total). Based on extrapolation of current BWCs consumption with no forecast rebound in usage to determine the impacts if there is no increase in average regional bulk water demands. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 32 of 90

33 Figure 8: Adopted Bulk Water Demand Forecasts 5.3 Demand Model Development The current obligation in the SOP for the provision of Forecasts by the BWCs at the Demand Zone level does not provide an adequate level of granularity around the distribution of demands to effectively assess network capability (e.g. Brisbane is a single demand zone). To progress the capability assessments, Seqwater has used a variety of spatial distribution modelling approaches based on information received from the BWC (including the Low series Forecasts provided for this WSAP). This has enabled the SEQ bulk water supply system capability assessment to be undertaken at a subregional level; however, this is not considered to be a comprehensive approach to demand distribution, in particular for the QUU and Redland subregions where Seqwater provides a distribution/reticulation service in addition to that of the bulk water supplier. Seqwater is currently undertaking a process in conjunction with the BWCs to assess the desired format/breakdown for the provision of demand forecast information that adequately meets Seqwater s business needs, taking into consideration the existing demand forecasting practices of the BWCs. It is intended that this approach will result in more robust methods for demand distribution and integrated system planning to be used in regional water planning. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 33 of 90

34 5.4 Seasonal Peaking Factors As noted previously, in addition to meeting the LOS objectives and regional average consumption requirements, the bulk water supply system must be planned to effectively treat and transport water during high demand periods. This is being addressed through assessing the network capability during a peak month (referred to as a Mean Day of the Maximum Month (MDMM)). The seasonal variability in water demand varies across the region and is a product of a number of factors, with the MDMM demand usually occurring during the summer months being primarily related to: Increased outdoor residential water use. Those areas with greater temperature variability (e.g. Ipswich) or more permeable soils (e.g. Sunshine Coast) tend to have higher MDMM:AD ratios Increased transient/tourist populations during the summer months (e.g. Gold Coast) Smaller population size. Greater overall consumption variability is experienced in smaller communities (e.g. small, non-connected communities) Lower industrial/commercial activity. Seasonal peaking is primarily related to residential consumption such as those communities with limited industrial and/or commercial consumption experience greater variability in seasonal demands (e.g. Redlands). Table 6 provides the MDMM:AD peaking factors adopted for the purposes of the capability assessments. Table 6: Adopted Subregional Peaking Factors MDMM:AD Peaking Subregion Factor Brisbane 1.3 Caboolture 1.4 Gold Coast 1.3 Ipswich 1.4 Logan 1.3 Maroochy/Caloundra 1.5 Noosa 1.5 Pine Rivers 1.4 Redcliffe 1.3 Redlands 1.4 Non-connected Communities 1.5 Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 34 of 90

35 5.5 Major Growth Areas As the bulk water supplier for SEQ, Seqwater maintains a strong awareness of the distribution of existing and future network demands, in particular new and emerging development corridors throughout the region, and continues to engage with the BWCs on the most efficient means of servicing these areas. This understanding is developed primarily through consultative work with our customers on infrastructure planning and operational activities across the region. For example, population growth within Brisbane will be largely by infill development (e.g. densification of the Brisbane central business district (CBD)), which will generally be supplied through existing infrastructure; whereas development throughout other parts of the region will be classified by new Major Developments Areas (MDAs) as essentially Greenfield estates and will require largely network expansions. The most significant of these MDAs will be the Economic Development Queensland (EDQ) projects of: Caloundra South Greater Flagstone Yarrabilba Ripley Valley. Other significant growth areas around SEQ are: Brisbane CBD/West End/South Brisbane Caboolture West Coomera/Pimpama. Greater Springfield Kinross Road, Thornlands North Lakes/Mango Hill Palmview Parkridge Rochedale Robina The major growth areas throughout SEQ are illustrated on Map 7. Of note, is that many of the new development areas will be implemented using water sensitive urban design principles, with some including full Total Water Cycle Management Plans. These new developments will be characterised by a lower than average water consumption per person. This level of detail is not yet reflected in the demand forecasts provided by the BWCs; however, future master planning and consideration to local supply issues will invariably result in more efficient outcomes. 5.6 Monitoring Bulk Water Demands Seqwater is responsible for the treatment and transport of bulk water throughout SEQ. This treatment and transport is constantly monitored and recorded to allow trending and analysis of bulk water consumption throughout the region. This is central to prudent and efficient planning as the ability to determine capability, identify deficiencies and to implement appropriate solutions is contingent on being able to understand and manage network demands. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 35 of 90

36 Seqwater has over four years of recorded bulk water production and transport data which is used to correlate against known asset capability and trended against network performance data (e.g. daily reservoir corrected demands). In addition Seqwater receives household/business account level information on water use from our SEQ Service Provider customers. This information is used to inform our demand forecasts, specific assessments of usage within various areas and/or land use types, assessments on unaccounted for water and to assist in undertaking fortnightly estimates of per capita consumption across the region for wider publication. Collectively this information is also used to track usage against our planning assumptions, manage asset performance, identify capability constraints and undertake future infrastructure planning. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 36 of 90

37 6. Bulk Water Supply Network 6.1 The Role of the Bulk Water Supply System The function of the SEQ bulk water supply system is to efficiently treat and transport potable water to the BWCs for distribution to consumers. The SEQ bulk water supply system assets include: Catchments and dams Rivers, bores and raw water pipelines WTPs and the GCDF The WCRW Scheme Bulk transport pipelines, pump stations and reservoirs Water quality management facilities. An overview of the area defined by the SOP with the major raw water storages is provided on Map 1, the water treatment facilities on Map 2 and the major elements of the connected SEQ bulk water supply with Seqwater infrastructure detailed on Maps 3 and 4. Seqwater s role in this integrated water supply chain is to treat and transport bulk treated water from the WTPs (including the GCDF) whilst meeting a number of key drivers, including: Obligations under the SOP, including cost-effective service delivery Obligations under the Bulk Water Supply Agreements, including maintaining treated water quality parameters Obligations under the Bulk Water Supply Code including; operation in accordance with documented Operating Protocols Requirements under the Statement of Obligations including that investment and other decisions are made considering the whole of SEQ system least-cost Regulatory requirements of a Registered Service Provider, including operating under a DWQMP Costs and other commercial factors such as access to funds, return on investment and dividend requirements. 6.2 Bulk Water Treatment Overview Seqwater manages bulk treated water assets to supply in excess of 280,000 ML per year to the region. In operation, raw water is sourced from approximately 1.69 Million hectares of catchment including Seqwater-owned land and privately-owned land and collected in 26 dams and 45 weirs. These dams and weirs have the capacity to store in excess of 2.6 million ML at any one time for supply to WTPs and irrigation schemes. The raw water quality for water sourced from these catchments is determined by the health (for example, land management practices, levels of development, volume of high risk activities) of the catchment. As the SEQ watershed covers more than 1.9 Million hectares of land yet Seqwater own just over 65,000 hectares, it can be seen that Seqwater has limited direct control over activities and practices within our watersheds. The assets involved in producing traditional water supply, grouped by catchment and basin, are listed in Table 7. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 37 of 90

38 Table 7: Seqwater catchments, storages and potable water WTPs Basin SOURCE STORE SUPPLY Bulk Water Supply Watercourse Storage Assets WTPs System connected* Mary Mary River Noosa WTP (piped from Mary Yes River intake) Kenilworth WTP No Yabba Creek Borumba Dam Borumba Dam WTP No Obi Obi Creek Baroon Pocket Dam Landers Shute WTP Yes BL Maleny Weir Maleny WTP (decomm) No Six Mile Creek Six Mile Creek Dam Noosa WTP No Maroochy River Cooloolabin Dam Image Flat WTP No Poona Dam Wappa Dam South Maroochy Weir Mooloolah River Ewen Maddock Dam Ewen Maddock WTP Yes A Moreton Stanley River Somerset Dam Somerset WTP No Stanley River Woodford WTP (decomm) Yes S Kilcoy Creek Kilcoy Creek Weir Kilcoy WTP No Brisbane River Wivenhoe Dam Esk WTP No Brisbane River Linville WTP No Cressbrook Creek Groundwater Toogoolawah WTP (decomm) No Buaraba Creek Atkinson Dam Atkinson WTP No Reynolds Creek Moogerah Dam Moogerah WTP Kalbar WTP No No Mid- Brisbane River Mt Crosby Weir Mt Crosby East WTP Yes BL Lake Manchester Manchester Dam Mt Crosby West WTP Yes BL Mid- Brisbane River Lowood WTP No Enoggera Creek Enoggera Dam Logan- Albert Gold Coast Gold Creek Gold Creek Dam Brisbane Groundwater Enoggera WTP Runcorn WTP (decomm) Sunnybank WTP (decomm) Forest Lake WTP (decomm) Chandler WTP (decomm) Algester WTP (decomm) Yes - A Yes S Yes S Yes S Yes S Yes S Yes A No North Pine River North Pine Dam North Pine WTP Dayboro WTP Sideling Creek Sideling Creek Dam Petrie WTP No Caboolture River and Caboolture WTP (decomm) Yes A Wararba Creek Caboolture Weir Wararba Creek Weir Moodlu Quarry Offstream Storage Bribie Island Groundwater Woorim WTP (decomm) Banksia Beach WTP Logan River Maroon Dam Maroon Dam WTP Rathdowney WTP Kooralbyn WTP Bromelton Off Stream Helen St/Beaudesert WTP Storage South Maclean WTP (decomm) Teviot Brook Wyaralong Dam Wyaralong WTP (future) No Yes S No No No No Yes A Canungra Creek Canungra WTP No Albert River Albert River Weir Albert River WTP (decomm) No Nindooinbah Dam Tingalpa Creek Leslie Harrison Dam Capalaba WTP Yes A North Stradbroke Island NSI Central Borefield Herring Lagoon North Stradbroke Island WTP Yes A North Stradbroke Island NSI Groundwater Dunwich WTP Amity Point WTP Point Lookout WTP No No No Nerang River Hinze Dam Molendinar WTP Yes BL Little Nerang Creek Little Nerang Dam Mudgeeraba WTP Yes BL Bulk Water System connected codes: A augmented supply source; BL a base load supply source; S supply supplemented by the grid; Decomm decommissioned or likely to be decommissioned in near future Note: Supply assets solely for irrigation use are excluded from this table. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 38 of 90

39 6.3 Bulk Water Treatment Capability There are a number of other and legislative drivers which specify the water quality to be achieved for supply. As a large number of Seqwater s water treatment assets were designed at a time when water quality legislation was not as stringent as they are today, the nominal hydraulic treatment capacity of many of Seqwater s WTPs is greater than that which can actually be achieved while meeting water quality compliance. In addition to asset age and condition affecting treatment capacity, raw water quality is a key determining factor. For Seqwater s WTPs, the catchments from which they source their water are also in varying condition. Typically the worse the condition of the catchment, the higher the susceptibility of the water running off the catchment is to being impacted by seasonal/weather changes and subsequently the higher the degree of variability in raw water quality. This leads directly to higher variability in the treatment capacity of the plant. Drivers of raw water variability include: Turbidity Public Health related Algal Toxins Public Health Related Pathogens Public Health related Manganese levels Aesthetics Salinity Aesthetics Taste and odour - Aesthetics The capacity to deliver compliant water under poor raw water quality conditions is influenced by mechanical/process capacity constraints in the WTPs. For example: Flocculation capability Clarification capability Chemical dosing capacity Filtration capacity and processes Sludge Handling Capacity Seqwater uses a continuous improvement process to constantly evaluate the condition and capacity of our assets through its asset management approach as defined by its Asset Management Framework (refer Section 2.7). This analysis, which is an annual process and is currently being revisited, initially focused on the WTPs and more recently expanded to include catchment, dam and bulk transport assets. In addition to providing a system view of the asset portfolio, the annual iterations also provide a representation of where continuous improvements have been made across Seqwater s treatment portfolio. It is worthwhile noting the relationship between catchments in good condition and WTPs whose capacity is not significantly reduced during events which would otherwise cause a significant deterioration in raw water quality. For example: Hinze and Little Nerang dams have catchments which are assessed as being in good condition. Consequently the receiving Mudgeeraba and Molendinar WTPs enjoy relatively stable raw water quality which does not significantly affect plant capacity. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 39 of 90

40 The Mount Crosby WTPs by comparison source water from poor scoring catchments (Somerset, Wivenhoe, Mid Brisbane River, Lockyer) and therefore experience extreme variations in raw water quality which significantly reduce plant capacity as evidenced during the January 2011 Floods and the January 2013 Weather Event. 6.4 Treatment Capability and Entitlement The WTPs are operated to produce treated water according to Monthly Operating Supply Schedules (MOSS) in accordance with the Annual Operations Plan (refer Section 4.2). The ability of the WTPs is impacted by a range of factors including: Raw water entitlement limits on maximum water licensed to be drawn from a resource Raw water quality impacts on plants ability to produce treated water, in particular, raw water turbidity can reduce a plant s capacity Minimum production can be limited both by plant operational features and SEQ bulk water supply system constraints such as the requirement to maintain minimum flow through large diameter mains. For the purposes of the WSAP, Table 8 provides the bulk treatment capabilities for the key bulk water supply system connected WTPs. Table 8: Adopted WTP Capabilities (under good raw water quality) Region WTP Maximum Hydraulic Capacity (ML/d) 1 Maximum Process Capacity (ML/d) 1 Max Rated Capacity (ML/d) 2 Minimum Capacity (ML/d) 3,4 Entitlement (ML/y) Noosa ,000 Image Flat ,500 Woodford ,250 Sunshine Coast Ewen Maddock Banksia Beach /0 2, ,570 Caboolture ,200 Lander's Shute ,495 Pine Rivers Petrie ,682 Brisbane Mt Crosby ,725 North Pine /0 59,000 Capalaba ,640 Redlands North Stradbroke Island ,375 Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 40 of 90

41 Region WTP Maximum Hydraulic Capacity (ML/d) 1 Maximum Process Capacity (ML/d) 1 Max Rated Capacity (ML/d) 2 Minimum Capacity (ML/d) 3,4 Entitlement (ML/y) Molendinar ,450 Gold Coast Mudgeeraba ,845 SEQ Desal ,000 Logan South ,695 MacLean 5 Beaudesert Beaudesert ,300 Sub-Total 1, ,627 Notes 1. Maximum Hydraulic and Maximum Process capacity taken over 24 hours 2. Max Rated capacity taken over 20 hrs of operation, unless stated otherwise. Also takes into account known constraints that can occur a few times a year. 3. Minimum capacity is based on minimum plant flow over 20 hrs. If required, plant runs of 8 hrs minimum can be used. 4. Minimum flows shown for example as 1.25 / 0 indicate the minimum flow, and that it is also possible to shut the plant down entirely. 5. WTP currently off line and would require investment to recommission 6.5 Bulk Water Transport System The bulk water transport network moves treated potable water from treatment plants throughout SEQ, to the BWCs who operate the local distribution networks that supply the end consumers. To undertake this service, Seqwater utilises the following major groups of assets: 600km of bulk water mains 26 pump stations 30 reservoirs 9 water quality management (dosing) facilities Associated control and telemetry systems. The above assets include the major interconnecting pipeline systems built in response to the Millennium drought i.e. Southern Regional Water Pipeline (SRWP), Eastern Pipeline Interconnector (EPI), Northern Pipeline Interconnector Stages 1 and 2 (NPI Stage 1 and 2) and the Network Integration Pipeline (NIP). The balance of the network comprises acquired assets that were transferred from the various Councils between the Sunshine Coast in the north and the Gold Coast in the south. The creation of bulk water supply network (previously known as the Water Grid) in 2007 was largely driven by the water reform initiated by the Queensland State Government. The desire for reform was influenced in part, by the very severe drought that affected Queensland, and much of Australia, starting early in the last decade. As such, a key operating capability is the flexibility to move water up and down the region to maximise the overall sustainable yield of all the connected water sources. This capability existed to only a very limited extent prior to the construction of the interconnecting pipelines. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 41 of 90

42 To assess the system capability, the bulk transport network is generally segregated into discrete functional segments consisting of major hydraulic branches (refer Maps 8 and 9). This segregation has been developed in line with the Demand Forecast areas, the Annual Operating Strategy and the SEQ bulk water supply system Monthly Operational Supply Schedules (MOSS). The actual capacity of the bulk transport network varies significantly depending on the mode of operation and on the water demands occurring at the time. The mode of operation for the capacities noted in this WSAP is based on maximising capacity through a normal mode of operation (i.e. not during an emergency management scenario). The defined bulk transport capabilities can therefore be adopted for developing robust and sustainable operational strategies. An assessment of operational contingency modes of operation (e.g. using standby pump capacity to fully maximise transport during an incident) is yet to be fully explored for the bulk transport system. Regional Interconnector Schemes Southern Regional Water Pipeline (SRWP) bi-directional scheme transferring treated water between the Molendinar WTP on the Gold Coast and the Mount Crosby WTP trunk mains in Brisbane. Includes a number of controlled off takes supplying water to Demand Zones in the northern Gold Coast, southern Logan and Ipswich Demand Zones Network Integration Pipeline (NIP) transporting bulk treated water from the GCDF at Tugun to the Molendinar WTP. Includes off takes supplying water to Gold Coast Southern Mixed Demand Zones Eastern Pipeline Interconnector (EPI) - bi-directional scheme transferring bulk treated water between the Redlands North Stradbroke Demand Zone to the Logan Demand Zone Northern Pipeline Interconnector (NPI) Stage 1 - bi-directional scheme transferring bulk treated water between the Landers Shute WTP west of Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast and the North Pine WTP. Includes off takes supplying water to the Caboolture Demand Zone and future off takes supplying water to the Caloundra Demand Zone NPI Stage 2 - bi-directional scheme transferring bulk treated water between the Landers Shute WTP west of Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast and the Noosa WTP trunk mains. Includes a future off take supplying water to the Image Flat Demand Zone. Gold Coast Schemes Mudgeeraba transferring bulk treated water from the Mudgeeraba WTP to supply the Mudgeeraba and Gold Coast Southern Mixed Demand Zones. Logan Schemes Logan Central transferring bulk treated water from the Kuraby reservoir to supply the Logan Demand Zone and potentially onto the Redland Demand Zones via the EPI. Redland Schemes North Stradbroke Island transferring bulk treated water from the North Stradbroke WTP to the Heinemann Road reservoir complex to supply the North Stradbroke Demand Zone and potentially onto the Alexandra Hills Demand Zone Alexandra Hills - transferring bulk treated water from the Capalaba WTP to the Alexandra Hills reservoir complex to supply the Alexandra Hills Demand Zone Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 42 of 90

43 Mount Cotton - transferring bulk treated water from the Heinemann Road reservoir complex to the Alexandra Hills Demand Zone. Moderate bidirectional capability to move water from the Alexandra Hills Demand Zone south into the North Stradbroke Demand Zone. Brisbane Schemes Camerons Hill to Green Hill supplying the western areas of the Brisbane Demand Zone and transferring bulk treated water from the Camerons Hill reservoir complex, adjacent to the Mount Crosby WTP, to the Green Hill reservoir complex Green Hill to Wellers Hill transferring bulk treated water from the Green Hill reservoir complex to the Wellers Hill reservoir complex to supply the south eastern areas of the Brisbane Demand Zone Camerons Hill to Kuraby supplying the southern areas of the Brisbane Demand Zone and transferring bulk treated water from the Camerons Hill reservoir complex, to the Kuraby reservoir Green Hill to Sparkes Hill bi-directional scheme supplying the central areas of the Brisbane Demand Zone and transferring bulk treated water from the Green Hill reservoir complex to the Sparkes Hill reservoir complex Sparkes Hill to Aspley bi-directional scheme supplying the northern areas of the Brisbane Demands Zone and transferring bulk treated water between the Sparkes Hill reservoir complex and the Aspley reservoir North Pine to Aspley bi-directional scheme transferring bulk treated water between the Aspley reservoir and the North Pine WTP supplying the northern most areas of the Brisbane Demand Zone and the Pine Rivers and Redcliffe Demand Zones. Ipswich Schemes Ipswich Supply Mains trunk mains from the Mount Crosby WTP supplying the Ipswich Demand Zone. The hydraulic capacity of the bulk transport network is directly related to the water demand and the operating philosophy imposed on it. For example, increasing the demand upstream of a pump station can decrease the capacity of a bulk transport pump station; conversely increasing the demand downstream of a pump station will generally increase its capacity. The network capacity of each of the schemes to transport bulk water under the current (Year 2013) average day demands and the current operating philosophy (consistent with the Annual Operations Plan) is provided in Maps 8 and 9. These bulk transport capabilities are assessed against the adopted demand with consideration of changes in the network performance as demand changes in the future. In addition to the maximum hydraulic capability of the network; maintaining water quality is dependent on managing water age and promoting turnover of the network giving rise to minimum flow requirements. These serve as an operating constraint which further dictates the capability of the network. 6.6 Connection to Bulk Water Supply Network Based on previous planning undertaken by Seqwater and the BWCs, a number of demand zones are unlikely to form part of the connected SEQ bulk water supply system within a 20 year planning horizon. Work is continuing to review the cost-effectiveness of connecting some area to the bulk water supply system; however, for the purposes of this WSAP, the excluded demand forecast zones are shown in Table 9, being: Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 43 of 90

44 Scenic Rim Regional Council (except Beaudesert) Lockyer Valley Regional Council Somerset Regional Council Kenilworth North Stradbroke Island townships (Amity Point, Dunwich and Point Lookout). Table 9: Local Government Connection to the Potable Bulk Water Supply System Local Government Area Existing Bulk Water Supply System Connectivity Brisbane City Council Fully Fully Gold Coast City Council Fully Fully Ipswich City Council Fully Fully Lockyer Valley Regional Council None None Logan City Council Fully Fully Moreton Bay Regional Council Mostly Fully Redland City Council Mostly Mostly Scenic Rim Regional Council None Partly Somerset Regional Council None None Sunshine Coast Regional Council Mostly Mostly Notes Potential Future Bulk Water Supply System Connectivity 1. The excluded Demand Zones represent less than 2% of the total demand across the SEQ bulk water supply system 6.7 Identified Planning Initiatives Under the Schedule 5 of the SOP, Seqwater is obligated to: consult with relevant parties in preparing its Water Supply Asset Plan and provide evidence of consultation to ensure all reasonable options have been appropriately investigated and considered prior to identification of specific capital solutions to meet the consolidated SEQ water demand forecast This is consistent with the Statement of Obligations, whereby: The Authority must endeavour to collaborate with all regional bodies and authorities to achieve whole of region benefits. Where functions of the Authority, SEQ service providers and any other entities may be similar or provide synergies (for example, catchment management, metering, pipeline and reservoir construction, operation of water infrastructure, customer service, and shared infrastructure systems), the Authority must endeavour to develop options joint with relevant entities for mutual benefit, in order to achieve efficiency and effectiveness of service delivery at least cost to the community. To undertake the capability assessments against the adopted demand forecasts, the outcomes of previous planning studies undertaken in conjunction with the BWCs has been adopted. Where appropriate, this planning aligns with the BWCs Netserv Plans (e.g. the provision of additional BSPs). Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 44 of 90

45 Note that given the uncertainty in the Forecasts and the inability to accurately identify local supply issues using the provided demand forecast zones; many of the current planning assumptions remain subject to detailed planning and options finalisation, particularly with respect to the optimal timing for implementation. Similarly, as Integrated Master Planning progresses and an improved understanding is gained in asset condition and criticality, these planning initiatives will be subject to further review. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 45 of 90

46 7. Bulk Water Supply System Capability Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan 7.1 Assessing System Capability The capability of the SEQ bulk water supply system is a result of the interaction between the bulk water treatment infrastructure (including catchments and raw water systems) and the bulk transport network. In the role of network operator and system manager, Seqwater has access to fit-for-purpose operational and planning support tools to analyse and interrogate network capability, including detailed scenario assessments. These tools include: SEQ Regional Water Balance Model (Wathnet) to assess the bulk water supply system s yield and the ability to meet future demand requirements using a stochastic predictive modelling approach Bulk water balance Cost Optimisation models that are able to minimise for operational costs subject to network constraints (e.g. maximum and minimum infrastructure capacities) Waterhub information system Demand Forecasting Module (DFM) to forecast expectations of water demand based on historical usage, population projections and future usage scenario information Detailed hydraulic spreadsheets for undertaking specific hydraulic and water quality assessments SCADA (System Control and Data Acquisition) for assessing actual network capabilities and for model calibration/verification Purpose built EPANet based hydraulic and water quality network models (H2OMap), which include all of the bulk water and major distribution infrastructure throughout SEQ. These models allow detailed dynamic network simulations for infrastructure planning, network operations, system optimisation, energy management, water quality assessments and during incident management. These tools give Seqwater a detailed understanding of the existing and future capability of the SEQ bulk water supply system. As Integrated Master Planning progresses, these tools will permit effective identification of the best solutions to resolve any capability constraints and to identify opportunities for improved network performance. 7.2 Defining Network Capacity In line with the provisions in the SOP, and consistent with good operating practice, under ideal conditions (i.e. when all infrastructure is available at nominal capacity), network operations should be focussed on minimising operating costs while maintaining contractual and service delivery obligations and managing any risks in the provision of a safe and secure potable water supply. Given that the adopted Forecasts are below the adopted LOS yield of the system (470,000ML/year); regional raw water security is not compromised for the connected bulk water supply system and network capability was assessed on minimising operating costs whilst giving consideration to operational constraints, water quality risks and operational resilience. This can be generally categorised by: Minimising or eliminating the use of small, high unit cost WTPs (e.g. Caboolture) Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 46 of 90

47 Minimising the use of the GCDF; however, maintaining it in a hot-standby mode such that it is able to rate up rapidly to respond to operational issues around the SEQ bulk water supply system Using of the regional interconnectors to reduce variable operating costs by increasing production from more economical WTPs (e.g. Landers Shute) Maximising the use of the larger, low unit cost WTP s, subject to allocation, treatment and bulk transport capacity constraints (e.g. Molendinar WTP). To assess the capacity of the SEQ bulk water supply system to meet the LOS objectives and the adopted planning criteria in a cost efficient manner; regional bulk water planning was undertaken in 5 year planning horizons for Average Day (AD) and Mean Day Maximum Month (MDMM) demand conditions using the Seqwater Cost Optimisation Model. As such, system analysis was undertaken for: Existing (Year 2013) Year 2017 Year 2022 Year 2027 Year 2032 The definition of capability is that for each scenario considered; the included infrastructure and proposed operating philosophy must meet all the network operating constraints and achieve the adopted planning criteria (refer Section 4), with regard to: LOS yield Individual WTP raw water allocations Individual WTP maximum and minimum production capacity Bulk transport infrastructure maximum and minimum capacity. 7.3 Limitations in the Planning Assessment The capability of the SEQ bulk water supply system is inherently related to the adopted mode in which it is operated combined with environmental factors (e.g. raw water quality). To assess the capacity of the connected SEQ bulk water supply system, regional bulk water balances were developed for AD and MDMM demand conditions using the Seqwater Cost Optimisation Model. This is consistent with the current Annual Operations Plan philosophy of minimising variable operating costs subject to overall system constraints; however, this approach has a number of key limitations. Levels of Service Impacts The SEQ bulk water supply system currently has a prescribed LOS yield of 470,000ML/a with average day demand being generally around 280,000ML/a. The water treatment capacity, being how much water can be treated if it was available under good raw water quality conditions, is just above 650,000ML/a. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 47 of 90

48 The theoretical LOS yield of 470,000ML/a is not an actual available sustainable yield. The theoretical yield is based on the maximum yield from water supply sources for a specified set of long term water security performance criteria, infrastructure configuration, constraints and demand distribution. In addition and importantly, the current theoretical operational philosophy in developing the current LOS yield is not based on a cost minimisation mode of operation. This effectively means that the most cost-effective mode of operation does not necessarily produce the most hydrologic efficient yield. Integrated Renewals Planning The operating philosophies developed for each planning horizon are based on the nominal capacity of each bulk water facility and assumes that this nominated capability will be available in the future. This approach does not consider the cost-effectiveness of maintaining infrastructure at the nominated capacity and it may prove to be more economical to adopt an alternative operating philosophy once consideration is given to collective and individual infrastructure investment profiles. Facility Variable Operating Cost Network capability is assessed against a prescribed mode of operation. The individual facility unit variable operating costs ($/ML) adopted in the Seqwater Cost Optimisation model for the WTPs were taken from the Queensland Competition Authority (QCA) SEQ Grid Service Charges Final Report (July 2012). This represents a unit cost for each major treatment facility based on the proposed mode of operation for These costs are essentially the annual variable costs of electricity and chemicals divided by the volume throughputs of the facility. To project this to being a unit cost for other, incompatible modes of operation is not necessarily a true representation of the relative costs from each treatment facility (i.e. the $/ML treatment cost is very unlikely to remain consistent across a wide range of treatment volumes). The unit variable operating costs for the bulk transport network were taken from recent work undertaken to develop volumetric pumping versus unit cost relationships for electricity and chemicals for the bulk water supply transport network. This work is being extended to include the WTPs to provide a better representation of the combined variable operating costs across the entire system. Optimisation Opportunities The proposed operating philosophies do not yet consider optimisation opportunities that may be available across the SEQ bulk water supply system (e.g. it may be more cost-effective to install a new facility or undertake significant upgrades at another, which would decrease costs further and give an improved outcome in the medium or long term). Ongoing system improvement initiatives will be explored further as part of the Integrated Master Plan. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 48 of 90

49 7.4 Most Likely Demand Scenario Subject to the limitations in the planning assessments outlined above and with the infrastructure capability and augmentations documented in Section 6; the WSAP demonstrates that the SEQ bulk water supply system can achieve the adopted LOS objectives and meet the adopted planning criteria for a residential demand rebound of 185L/p/d up to The bulk water balances from the Seqwater Cost Optimisation model for the Most Likely demand scenario are provided in Appendix B. The key results for the AD and MDMM scenarios for the connected WTPs and regional interconnectors are provided in Figure 10 to Figure 17. Figure 10: Most Likely Demands AD Scenario Connected WTPs Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 49 of 90

50 Figure 11: Most Likely Demands AD Scenario SRWP Bulk Transport Figure 12: Most Likely Demands AD Scenario NPI Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 50 of 90

51 Figure 13: Most Likely Demands AD Scenario EPI Bulk Transport Figure 14: Most Likely Demands MDMM Scenario Connected WTPs Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 51 of 90

52 Figure 15: Most Likely Demands MDMM Scenario SRWP Bulk Transport Figure 16: Most Likely Demands MDMM Scenario NPI Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 52 of 90

53 Figure 17: Most Likely Demands MDMM Scenario EPI Bulk Transport As previously noted, the analysis excludes any local supply issues or direct assessment of BWCs Customer Service Standards. There is an existing deficiency at the Image Flat WTP with the Most Likely MDMM demand being higher than the adopted nominal Image Flat WTP capacity. Seqwater has identified the preferred means of providing supply to the Image Flat Demand Zone is an off take from the NPI Stage 2. This is currently under construction with completion scheduled for January Once the proposed infrastructure and network reconfigurations are in place and subject to the limitations in planning cited above; the SEQ bulk water supply system has sufficient capacity under the Most Likely demand scenario, to meet the current adopted LOS objectives and supply all demand zones under ideal operating conditions (including ideal raw water quality conditions) until the 2032 planning horizon. Of note for the SEQ bulk water supply system under the Most Likely demand scenario: Although the bulk water supply system can meet the projected 2032 MDMM demands, it is largely at full capability with most of the SEQ Primary WTPs operating at or near full capacity Under the 2032 MDMM demands, the only WTP with significant spare treatment capacity is the GCDF By 2032, the Sunshine Coast WTPs are operating largely at capacity and the NPI is maximising flow into the northern areas of the Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast Regional Councils to supplement supply. This increases the criticality of the NPI system and will trigger the transition of this project from its current design basis as primarily a drought infrastructure project to an operational distribution main Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 53 of 90

54 The minimum flow requirement through the NPI creates the scenario whereby the production requirement from the Landershute WTP actually reduces in the medium term as the NPI is transitioned from predominantly southern flow to northern flow The SRWP is generally required to export south from the Mount Crosby WTP to supplement supply into the Lower Logan and northern Gold Coast areas to accommodate growth through this major development corridor. This mode is also driven by the desire to minimise the use of the GCDF due its relatively high unit production costs. Given that the above assessment is based on ideal operating conditions (including ideal raw water quality), this suggests that major system augmentations/capability improvements may be required prior to 2032 to account for non-ideal modes of operation. The assessments of these non-ideal modes is currently being progressed under an adopted risk management framework to develop BWC Service Specifications with reliability criteria as part of the Integrated Master Plan under the WSP (refer Section 8). 7.5 High Demand Scenario As noted previously, the 230L/p/d scenario is an extremely high demand scenario in comparison to actual, recorded demands, particularly when magnified by seasonal peaking factors (i.e. MDMM). Under the High demand (230L/p/d) scenario, the current adopted LOS yield of the bulk water supply system (~470,000ML/yr) is exceeded around This would trigger the requirement for an as yet undefined additional bulk water supply source or major bulk transport system reconfiguration such that impacts of the High demand scenario has been assessed against a 10 year planning horizon, up until the current LOS yield of the system is reached. It is not intended for the High demand scenario to be used as a basis for actual infrastructure planning; however, more so to develop an understanding of the current surplus capacity across the bulk water supply system and to identify any emerging issues should regional bulk water demands experience an unexpected, significant and rapid increase prior to the finalisation of the Water Security Program. The bulk water balances from the Seqwater Cost Optimisation model for the High demand scenario are provided in Appendix C. The key results for the AD and MDMM scenarios for the connected WTPs and regional interconnectors are provided in Figure 18 to Figure 25. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 54 of 90

55 Figure 18: High Demand AD Scenario Connected WTPs Figure 19: High Demand AD Scenario SRWP Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 55 of 90

56 Figure 20: High Demand AD Scenario NPI Bulk Transport Figure 21: High Demand AD Scenario EPI Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 56 of 90

57 Figure 22: High Demand MDMM Scenario Connected WTPs Figure 23: High Demand MDMM Scenario SRWP Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 57 of 90

58 Figure 24: High Demand MDMM Scenario NPI Bulk Transport Figure 25: High Demand MDMM Scenario EPI Bulk Transport As to be expected, there is an existing demand deficiency with the Image Flat WTP with the High MDMM demand being higher than the Image Flat WTP adopted maximum capacity. Seqwater has identified the preferred means of providing supply to the Image Flat Demand Zone is an off take from the NPI Stage 2. The imminent construction of this off take will enable even High MDMM demands to be accommodated in the Image Flat zone up until the Year Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 58 of 90

59 The assessment demonstrates that once the proposed infrastructure and network reconfigurations are in place and subject to the limitations in planning cited above; the connected SEQ bulk water supply system can meet the High demand scenario (230L/p/d) under ideal operating conditions (including ideal raw water quality) until at least 2022, including for MDMM demands, at which time the combined regional demand essentially matches the LOS yield and an additional bulk water source or major system reconfiguration will be required. Of note for the SEQ bulk water supply system is that under the High demand scenario: For the existing (Year 2013) planning horizon, the NPI is preferred to supply south into the North Pine WTP (as opposed to north to supply the Narangba and Caboolture demand zones). This is the most cost-effective way to maintain the minimum flow required to sustain water quality through this section of pipeline under this demand scenario The Sunshine Coast subregion is likely to be the first to fail with the Sunshine Coast WTPs operating at or near capacity and the NPI maximising flow into the northern areas of the Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast Regional Councils by the Year This suggests that additional investigations are needed to determine the long-term bulk water network options for supplying the northern subregion of the SEQ bulk water supply system The SRWP is generally required to export south from the Mount Crosby WTP to supplement supply into the Lower Logan and northern Gold Coast areas to accommodate growth through this major development corridor. What the 230L/p/d demand scenario also demonstrates is that there is generally sufficient capability in the SEQ bulk water supply system to accommodate a significant increase in regional water demand. This highlights that there is time to progress prudent planning and to develop a comprehensive Integrated Master Plan to identify improved operational and infrastructure optimisation plans and for truly integrated planning of the entire water supply chain from catchment to customer taps. 7.6 Low Demand Scenario Given the reduction in demand under the Low demand scenario; the assessments demonstrate that, with the inclusion of the planned infrastructure in Table 10 (Section 6.7), the connected SEQ bulk water supply system can meet the 185L/p/d Low demand scenario up to 2032 for MDMM demands. The bulk water balances from the Seqwater Cost Optimisation model for the Low demand scenario are provided in Appendix D. The key results for the AD and MDMM scenarios for the connected WTPs and regional interconnectors are provided in Figure 26 to Figure 33. As previously noted, the analysis excludes any local supply issues or direct assessment of BWCs Customer Service Standards. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 59 of 90

60 Figure 26: Low Demand AD Scenario Connected WTPs Figure 27: Low Demand AD Scenario SRWP Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 60 of 90

61 Figure 28: Low Demand AD Scenario NPI Bulk Transport Figure 29: Low Demand AD Scenario EPI Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 61 of 90

62 Figure 30: Low Demand MDMM Scenario Connected WTPs Figure 31: Low Demand MDMM Scenario SRWP Bulk Transport Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 62 of 90

63 Figure 32: Low Demand MDMM Scenario NPI Bulk Transport Figure 33: Low Demand MDMM Scenario EPI Bulk Transport As for with the other demand scenarios, there is an existing deficiency with the Image Flat WTP with the Low MDMM demand being higher than the Image Flat WTP adopted maximum capacity. Seqwater has identified the preferred means of providing supply to the Image Flat Demand Zone is an off take from the NPI Stage 2. This is currently under construction with completion scheduled for January Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 63 of 90

64 The assessment demonstrates that once the proposed infrastructure and network reconfigurations are in place and subject to the limitations in the planning cited above; the SEQ bulk water supply system has sufficient capacity to meet the adopted LOS objectives and supply all demand zones under ideal operating conditions (including ideal raw water quality) under the Low demand scenario until the 2032 planning horizon. Of note for the SEQ bulk water supply system under the Low demand scenario is that its performance is generally predicted to be comparable to the Most Likely demand scenario: Although the bulk water network can maintain the projected 2032 MDMM demands, it is approaching full capability with most of the SEQ Primary WTPs operating at or near capacity By 2032, the Sunshine Coast WTPs are operating largely at capacity and the NPI is maximising flow into the northern areas of the Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast Regional Councils to supplement supply. This increases the criticality of the NPI system and will trigger the transition of this project from its current design basis as primarily a drought infrastructure project to an operational distribution main The SRWP is generally required to export south from the Mount Crosby WTP to supplement supply into the Lower Logan and northern Gold Coast areas to accommodate growth through this major development corridor. This mode is also driven by the desire to minimise the use of the GCDF due its relatively high unit production costs. 7.7 Infrastructure Critical to Maintaining Capability The current spare capacity in the SEQ bulk water supply system gives a degree of resilience and operational flexibility however there remain a number of critical facilities whose reliable operation is essential to maintaining supply. There are entire Demand Zones, or part thereof, that are potentially susceptible to a total or partial loss of supply in the event of an incident in the network. Depending on the nature of the incident, the loss of supply may be for a relatively short time while repairs are undertaken (e.g. a broken water main out of service for a number of hours) or for a protracted period (e.g. total loss of a facility resulting from a major fire). To identify the critical infrastructure, a preliminary assessment has been undertaken to determine the impact on a demand zone due to a loss of supply from these facilities under the current Most Likely demands with the existing infrastructure. There are also numerous demand zones that are at risk due to pipeline failure. Some of these are associated with single supply areas (e.g. the trunk main from the Mudgeeraba WTP) and will be highly dependent on the location of the failure, to time to repair and critical off takes to the BWC. Seqwater is progressing with condition and criticality assessments of all infrastructure to determine the supply risk and develop contingency plans and pipeline renewal programs. Integrated Master Planning will progress to detailed facility planning to determine supply risks for all key infrastructure and determine areas of the SEQ bulk water supply system where there is an unacceptable risk of loss of supply. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 64 of 90

65 7.8 Network Operability The above capability assessments are largely focussed on regional water security and normal operational performance, including achieving the desired LOS objectives under ideal operating conditions. Future assessments will establish the overall efficiency of the proposed modes of operation and review the overall operability of the network under non-ideal operating conditions. These include planned (e.g. maintenance at major facilities) and operational flexibility during operational incident management. To ensure the future operability of the SEQ bulk water supply system, Integrated Master Planning and Operational Contingency Planning is progressing to consider critical modes of operation under a risk management framework with a strong focus on operability as water consumption increases and the current spare capacity in the network is utilised. There are a number of areas of the bulk water transport network that have already been identified for future assessment, based on flexibility and operability principles, notably: Bi-directional capability of the northern parts of the Greater Brisbane network, in particular, the northern flow capability from the Green Hill reservoir complex, through to the Sparkes Hill and Aspley reservoir complexes The central areas of the Unitywater system from the North Pine WTP to the Morayfield reservoirs. This had previously been identified as an area for augmentation through the NPI Stage 3 The central areas of the Logan network, including supply into the Beenleigh water supply zone Flexibility in bulk water transport within the Redland water supply zones. 7.9 Stand-Alone Supply Schemes Small communities are subject to potentially the highest variability and uncertainty in existing and future bulk water supply demands. This may be related to, for instance, the impacts of non-reticulation connected consumers adjacent to these communities filling onsite water tanks from stand-pipes creating a short-term, high demand on individual WTPs. In other cases, future development of a relatively large industrial water user (e.g. an abattoir) will have a significant impact on future bulk water supply planning for the community. For these 14 non-connected WTPs not currently expected to be connected the SEQ bulk water supply system, an assessment has been of the existing WTP capability and current bulk water entitlements against the projected 20 year Most Likely demand scenarios using the currently available population projections for these communities, as summarised in Table 12. Table 13 excludes those communities that have been recently connected to the bulk water supply system and the existing WTP is subject to decommissioning (e.g. Maleny) or those that have been identified for future connection to the bulk water supply system (e.g. Dayboro, Beaudesert) and subsequent decommissioning of the WTP, refer Table 11 (Section 6.7). Table 12: WTPs Non-connected WTPs Projected Production Nonconnected WTP 2032 AD Demand (ML/year) Current Bulk Water Entitlement (ML/year) Current MDMM Demand (ML/d) 2032 MDMM Demand (ML/d) Current WTP Capacity (ML/d) (good raw water quality) Amity Point Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 65 of 90

66 Nonconnected WTP 2032 AD Demand (ML/year) Current Bulk Water Entitlement (ML/year) Current MDMM Demand (ML/d) 2032 MDMM Demand (ML/d) Current WTP Capacity (ML/d) (good raw water quality) WTP Boonah-Kalbar WTP 1,138 9, Canungra / WTP Dunwich WTP Esk WTP Jimna WTP Kenilworth WTP Kilcoy WTP 3 1,491 1, Kooralbyn WTP Linville WTP Lowood WTP 2 4, Point Lookout WTP Rathdowney WTP Somerset Dam WTP (Esk) Notes 1. Approved business case for Canungra WTP design for 1.5ML/day plant. Project currently under detailed scoping to determine any staging efficiencies. There is an additional 150ML/year bulk water entitlement in strategic reserve if require 2. Lowood and Esk WTP entitlements are linked to Wivenhoe and the Mid-Brisbane River such that there are not expected to be any future shortages in available entitlement 3. Kilcoy WTP is currently being built and will have a capacity of 4ML/day. Many of these identify a potential emerging capacity issue at some stage in the future (e.g. Lowood WTP); however, where the demand forecasts are highly variable, a staged implementation of infrastructure is prudent to avoid over-capitalisation. Seqwater will continue engage with the local water service providers and to actively monitor actual consumption and system capability to ensure prudency and efficiency of any infrastructure investment. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 66 of 90

67 8. Planning for the Future Year 2013 Water Supply Asset Plan 8.1 Overview With the closure of the QWC, the regional water security planning functions of the Commission have transitioned to Seqwater. The Water Act 2000 places a legislated obligation on Seqwater to undertake short to long term planning to ensure that it can meet the growing demand for safe, secure, and reliable bulk water supply in SEQ in line with the least-cost stipulations in other instruments and to be appropriately responsive to emerging security issues. For example, the Statement of Obligations states that: Seqwater must plan and manage water in a total water cycle framework including its water supply catchments and Seqwater is to focus on the catchment, storage, treatment, recycled water and bulk transport component of the water cycle, to achieve best social, environmental and economic outcomes, in partnership with land owners and affected parties. The merger of the entities has already provided considerable opportunities for Seqwater to integrate its planning and operational activities which were previously undertaken by the three entities and the QWC. The merger of the entities also provides an excellent opportunity to revisit how we integrate all planning, including for catchments, recreation, and achieve whole of system integration at least-cost. 8.2 Water Security Program The Water Act 2000 requires Seqwater to prepare a Water Security Program (WSP) one year after the regulation prescribing the desired LOS objectives is made by the Minister (refer Section 3.1). Based on the current timetables, this is likely to occur around June 2014 such that the draft Seqwater WSP is likely to be submitted to DEWS by June The Water Act 2000, is very specific in relation to the content of the WSP, and requires Seqwater to present its arrangements, measures or strategies for: Operating our assets for supplying water services to the region Addressing future infrastructure needs (including building new or augmenting existing infrastructure) Managing the infrastructure relevant to the operations Managing demand for water Responding to drought conditions. To achieve the Seqwater wider business requirements as well as to satisfy the legislative requirements of the WSP the following are the outcomes that Seqwater will seek to achieve in the WSP: Operate and optimise the use and management of the current asset portfolio to meet service requirements at least-cost Outline the augmentations required and the demand management measures to meet growth, water quality and short term continuity of supply requirements Outline the redundancy, operational and maintenance measures that are required to manage short term continuity of supply related issues Determine the measures and augmentations required to manage extended supply disruptions from drought. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 67 of 90

68 The components of the WSP to achieve these requirements are: A Demand Management component that will identify, demand management measures during normal operations, forecasting approaches and assumptions including per capita usage, reasonable reduction in use under restrictions for use in the operations, infrastructure and drought response components A Systems Operations component that will provide, system needs from infrastructure (bulk supply point service specification) for use in the infrastructure and maintenance components and determine when the current system capacity is reached for consideration in the infrastructure component An Infrastructure Component that will identify, infrastructure needs (renewals and augmented) including capacity, location and timing, service specifications at the bulk supply point level on which the infrastructure needs are based on A Drought Response component that will identify, assets and triggers for new infrastructure needs for use in the infrastructure component and triggers for demand management measures leading up to, during, and exiting a drought An Infrastructure Management and Maintenance Component that will provide, strategic guidance on maintaining the current asset suite for use in more detailed Asset Management Plans and the investment profile (and a maintenance schedule). The system operating and infrastructure component will be developed as one element and will be referred to as Seqwater s Integrated Master Plan. Below the Integrated Master Plan, the more detailed Asset Portfolio Master Plan will assess options for how best to provide the higher level requirements articulated in the Integrated Master Plan. Together the infrastructure component of the Integrated Master Plan and the Asset Portfolio Master Plan will satisfy the legislative requirements for the infrastructure component of the Program. To appropriately address business needs as well as legislative obligations, Seqwater has adopted the following key principles related to the preparation and development of the WSP to ensure that it is robust and meets the outcomes outlined above: Adoption of the Asset Management Framework, which embodies the Owner, Manager and Operator concept, in framing the WSP requirements and assignment of tasks Consolidation and integration of existing documents where appropriate and development of new documents as required to address any gaps Documents will be developed to meet Seqwater s business needs, whilst ensuring they also fulfil our regulatory obligations. The WSP will be developed in a number of stages and the key stages include: Preparation of interim plans, including this WSAP. The development of the WSP will make this annual WSAP redundant Expansion of these documents with a view to informing the 2014/15 budget cycle Preparation of draft and final WSPs to meet legislative requirements. The Seqwater WSP will remain a live process being developed in an iterative process being informed by hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, system optimisation analyses, supplydemand analyses including demand forecasting, economic analyses and engineering investigations. These analyses will be undertaken largely by in-house resources and expertise. External consultancies will be utilised where internal expertise or resources are not available. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 68 of 90

69 8.3 Collaborative Planning In developing the WSP, it is imperative that internal and external consultation is undertaken in a collaborative manner. The outcomes of these consultations will be utilised to inform and reshape these interim documents to achieve the required outcomes and adoption of a Total Water Cycle Management (TWCM) approach to achieve the catchment to tap obligations in the delivery of the program. Engagement with internal and external stakeholders and the BWCs is vital throughout the development and finalisation phases of the WSP through to implementation. To address this aspect, a Communication and Stakeholder Engagement Strategy will be developed in close consultation with the Seqwater Communications and Media Group. This Strategy will inform the approach on consultation and include key communication messages tailored to suite external audiences, including the general public. Whilst Seqwater has started the process to better understand and inform the business on the activities to be undertaken as part of the WSP, the detailed content and final timing of the delivery of the WSP is subject to a number of external influences, including: the Guidelines related to the content of the WSP (not expected from DEWS) before December 2013) The State Governments review and setting of LOS objectives Netserv Plans of the SEQ service providers The outcomes of the Wivenhoe Somerset Dams Optimisation Study and the North Pine Dam Optimisation Study. Regular interactions with the SEQ service providers will occur through the proposed Strategy and Planning Committee under the SEQ Regional Water Industry Alliance (RWIA) and related networks feeding into this Committee. Regular information updates on SEQ service provider Netserv Plans and any other planning activities are expected to occur through this mechanism. It is important to consider the cross-entity integration of other key aspects such as reliability of supply and water quality in the development of the WSP and its components. Water supply security and the delivery of the prescribed LOS objectives are a primary focus and a key obligation on Seqwater under the Water Act 2000; however, this is only one aspect of Seqwater s business requirements and the TWCM approach. The January 2011 floods and the Australia Day 2013 Weather Event have highlighted the need for more effort to be also invested across the entire water supply chain in the areas of water quality and reliability. This is consistent with the intent of legislation and content of forthcoming WSP Guidelines. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 69 of 90

70 9. Financial Forecasts 9.1 Overview This section sets out Seqwater s work program and associated budget for the identified works to ensure that the adopted bulk water demand forecast can be met. As detailed previously, Seqwater s near term investments are driven by the need to manage risks to ensure our core business consistently and continually supplies compliant bulk treated drinking water to the people of SEQ. As explained in Section 2, operations and practices must also comply with numerous regulatory and legislative drivers. The financial forecasts for these investments within the 0-3 year period are becoming increasingly well-defined as the new organisation becomes established; however, as planning work continues, the financial forecasts and those for the ensuing periods are likely to change significantly. These changes will be reflected in future annual iterations of this WSAP and through the WSP. For this WSAP, the financial forecasts have been provided for the next five years to Financial forecasts beyond this period are only available as a consolidation of work undertaken by the previous bulk water entities (Seqwater, LinkWater, SEQ WGM and the QWC), and do not represent the increasing level of knowledge and developing consolidated asset management plans of the merged entity, again noting that the financial forecasts will be updated in subsequent annual revisions of the WSAP and for the WSP.. Seqwater s financial outlook has been assessed against estimated preliminary long term Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) profiles to provide an indicative estimate of the impact of investment associated with the WSAP, as summarised in Table 13. Table 13: Summary of Preliminary Estimated Long Term Financial Position WGM Debt Demand Capital Expenditure Repayment Gearing 2018 Gearing 2028* Year Medium Current Best Forecast % 62% Medium Current Best Forecast + Risk Mitigation % 65% (Dam Safety) *Target gearing for investment grade debt rating is 60-70% Revenue estimates are derived on the basis of the revised Bulk Water price path as announced in Given the significant portfolio of debt retained on the balance sheet and the operating leverage associated with running/maintaining a portfolio of infrastructure assets, it is uncontroversial to note that the ability of Seqwater to return to a more financially sustainable capital structure in the long term is highly dependent on: Constraining OPEX / CAPEX spend to that demonstrated as both prudent and efficient Revenue realised (as a function of Bulk Water Demand). Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 70 of 90

71 9.2 Demand Forecast Assumptions The Medium demand Forecast is the Seqwater Most Likely demand case being the Seqwater Board approved forecast (approved as part of the Budget Process) that underlies all core financial projections, including financial forecasts provided to Government. Table 14: Adopted Bulk Water Demand Forecasts Demand Case Residential Rebound to 185L/p/d Population Growth Population Growth Post Most Likely Jul 2017 Medium Medium 9.3 Capital Expenditure Estimate Assumptions It is critical to note that these Financial Forecasts are based on point-in-time assumptions/ estimates, as drawn from Seqwater s Financial Model as at May Critical assumptions include the above Demand Forecasts, the CAPEX estimates, and the long term interest rate forecast. The Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) estimates profiled in the WSAP are based on the Seqwater Board approved Strategic Plan to , and reflect current Strategic Plan CAPEX adjusted for Western Corridor Recycled Water Scheme (WCRW Scheme) care and maintenance mode from CAPEX classifications are broadly illustrative only. The following key assumptions underpin the capital expenditure assumptions: Manufactured Water Assets (GCDP and WCRW Scheme) forecasts (replacement and refurbishment) were developed to underlie Seqwater s review of the MWA and are reflective of the status quo operating mode for GCDP. WCRW Scheme CAPEX has been truncated in the long term estimates to reflect care and maintenance mode. Bulk Transport Replacement Capital and drought infrastructure forecasts are based on financial modelling/forecasting provided by LinkWater as part of the merger as at December Non-Infrastructure Forecast for corporate CAPEX (e.g. ICT) based off Seqwater annual forecast. Dam Safety Upgrades. Seqwater is obligated to provide a number of significant dam safety upgrades to meet the requirements under the Water Supply (Safety and Reliability) Act Where included, these estimated CAPEX requirements for Dam Safety Upgrades are anchored to the prior preliminary investment plan (not yet Seqwater Board approved). 9.4 Most Likely Demand Financial Forecasts The Financial Forecasts for CAPEX, based on the Most Likely demand projections are provided on Figure 35. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 71 of 90

72 Figure 35: Most Likely Demand and Current Best Forecast Capital Expenditure ($M REAL ) Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 72 of 90

73 10. Next Steps This WSAP will be presented to DEWS for their consideration who are required to advise of their approval of the document within 30 business days. WSAPs are currently an annual requirement under the SOP. As the WSP is developed, the WSAP will become a redundant obligation (most likely around mid-2015). It is therefore likely that the 2014 WSAP will be the final iteration of this planning instrument. The 2014 WSAP will include the outcomes of additional work undertaken for the WSP with the WSP ultimately becoming a more encompassing 30-year planning document to be refined and continuously improved by including: Ongoing portfolio and system planning initiatives particularly targeting bulk water supply network reliability and resilience Ongoing detailed planning to underpin reliability of investment forecast profiles Improved population projections and revised demand forecasts Updated financial estimates which will be informed by the most up-to-date asset information, risk assessments and asset planning outcomes Testing of assumptions over water demand projections Refinement of current network models to address modelling assumptions pertaining to variability in network and supply capacity and operating costs. This will lead to an ongoing continuous improvement process in the development and accuracy of the capital, renewal and operational investment programs and in the plans defined within this WSAP and for the evolution of the WSP. Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 73 of 90

74 11. Glossary of Acronyms Acronym Name AD Average day demand ADWG Australian Drinking Water Quality Guidelines BSP Bulk Supply Point BWC Bulk Water Customer BWC Standards Customer Service Standards CBD Central business district DEWS Department of Energy and Water Supply DFM Demand Forecasting Module DWQMP Drinking Water Quality Management Plan EPI Eastern Pipeline Interconnector Forecasts South East Queensland water Demand Forecasts GCDF Gold Coat desalination facility Guarantee Water Supply Guarantee KPI Key Performance Indicator L/p/d Litres per person per day LOS Levels of service MDMM Mean day maximum month ML Megalitre ML/a Megalitres per annum ML/day Megalitres per day NPI Northern Pipeline Interconnector QCA Queensland Competition Authority QUU Queensland Urban Utilities QWC Queensland Water Commission SCADA System Control and Data Acquisition SEQ South East Queensland Service Specifications South East Queensland Water Grid service specifications SLMP System Leakage Management Plan SOP South East Queensland System Operating Plan 4.1 SOS Standards of Services SRWP Southern Regional Water Pipeline Strategy South East Queensland Water Strategy Unit Infrastructure Planning Unit WCRW Western Corridor Recycled Water WSAP Water Supply Asset Plan WSP Water Security Program WTP Water Treatment Plant Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 74 of 90

75 Maps Map 1 SEQ System Operating Plan Area Map 2 Water Treatment Facilities Map 3 Bulk Transport Network North Map 4 Bulk Transport Network South Map 5 Principal Water Sources Map 6 Distribution Water Supply Zones Map 7 Major Growth Areas Map 8 Bulk Network Capacity North Map 9 Bulk Network Capacity South Doc owner: James Moffatt Doc approver: Seqwater Board Rev no. FINAL Page 75 of 90

76 ± GYMPIE REGIONAL Gordonbrook Dam Bjelke Petersen Dam Lake MacDonald NOOSA SOH BURNETT REGIONAL Borumba Dam Cooloolabin Wappa Dam SUNSHINE COAST REGIONAL Baroon Pocket Dam Ewen Maddock Dam Kilcoy SOMERSET REGIONAL BRIBIE ISLAND Somerset Dam MORETON BAY REGIONAL Esk REDCLIFFE BRISBANE CITY Lake Kurwongbah Cressbrook Creek Dam Lake Samsonvale Perseverance Dam Wivenhoe Dam TOOWOOMBA REGIONAL Cooby Creek Dam Splityard Creek Dam BRISBANE Atkinson's Dam Enoggera Dam Seven Mile Lagoon Lake Manchester Dam BRISBANE CITY Lake Clarendon Leslie Harrison Dam Laidley IPSWICH REDLAND CITY LOCKYER VALLEY REGIONAL IPSWICH CITY Gatton Rosewood LOGAN LOGAN CITY Wyaralong Dam Boonah Beaudesert Moogerah Dam SCENIC RIM REGIONAL GOLD COAST CITY Hinze Dam GOLD COAST SOHERN DOWNS REGIONAL Maroon Dam Little Nerang Lake Legend GOLD COAST CITY LOGAN CITY QUU REDLAND CITY UNITYWATER Dam and Lakes Local Government Areas Map 1 SEQ System Operating Plan Area Scale km A4 Disclaimer: Date: 29/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater and copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 1\130805_OperatingPlan_A4_Portrait.mxd

77 3WQF 3WQF Noosa ± Borumba Dam Kenilworth Image Flat 3WQF Jimna Maleny Landers Shute 3WQF Ewen Maddock Lake Somerset Toogoolawah Kilcoy Kirkleagh Somerset Dam Woodford Caboolture Banksia Beach Woorim Esk Dayboro North Pine 3WQF Petrie Atkinson Wivenhoe Dam 3WQF Lowood East Bank West Bank Forest Lake Enoggera Algester Runcorn Sunnybank Chandler Capalaba 3WQF 3WQF 3WQF Amity Point Point Lookout Dunwich North Stradbroke Island 3WQF South Maclean 3WQF Maps 3 & 8 Aratula Boonah-Kalbar Moogerah Dam Maroon Dam Legend Decomm/Off line Not Connected Primary Recreational Secondary W Q F 3 Water Quality Facility Albert River Kooralbyn 3WQF Seqwater Pipeline GOLD COAST CITY LOGAN CITY Beaudesert Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 2\130805_WaterTreatementFacilities_A4_Portrait.mxd QUU REDLAND CITY UNITY WATER Canungra 3WQF Hinze Dam Molendinar Mudgeeraba GCDF Map 2 Water Treatment Facilities km Scale A4 Maps 4 & 9 Disclaimer: Date: 29/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws.

78 Noosa [Ú ± Ferntree Eudlo [Ú Morayfield [Ú Narangba [Ú Byrnes Rd North Pine [Ú[Ú Map 4 & 10 Legend [Ú Pump Station Water Treatment Plant Seqwater Reservoir Major Distribution Reservoirs Aspley [Ú Map 3 [Ú Bulk Transport Network North Seqwater Pipeline Major Distribution Mains km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 29/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 3\130805_BulkTransportNetworkNorth_A4_Portrait.mxd

79 [Ú Narangba [Ú ± North Pine Byrnes Rd [Ú Aspley [Ú Sparkes Hill Green Hill Cameron's Hill [Ú [Ú Swanbank [Ú Bundamba Lloyd St [Ú Wellers Hill [Ú Alexandra Hills Stones Rd Eprapah Creek Learoyd Rd [Ú [Ú [Ú Trinder Park [Ú Daisy Hill Gramzow [Ú Rd [Ú [Ú [Ú Heinemann Road Kimberley Park [Ú [Ú Chambers Flat [Ú Coomera Map 3 & 9 [Ú [Ú Molendinar [Ú Mudgeeraba Booster [Ú [Ú Tarrant Drive Legend [Ú Pump Station Water Treatment Plant SeqwaterReservoir Major Distribution Reservoirs Seqwater Pipeline Major Distribution Mains Map 4 Bulk Transport Network South km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 29/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 4\130805_BulkTransportNetworkSouth_A4_Portrait.mxd

80 ± Principal Bulk Water Source Banksia Beach WTP Capalaba/ North Stradbroke WTP Image Flat WTP Kenilworth Landers Shute WTP Molendinar WTP Mount Crosby WTP Mudgeeraba WTP Noosa WTP North Pine/ Mt Crosby WTP North Pine WTP North Stradbroke WTP Petrie WTP Molendinar/Mt Crosby WTP Legend Seqwater Pipeline Local Government Areas Map 5 Principal Water Sources km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 29/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 5\130805_PrincipalWaterSources_A4_Portrait.mxd

81 ± Legend Seqwater Pipeline Local Government Areas Map 6 Distribution Water Supply Zones km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 30/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 7\130805_DistributionReservoirZones_A4_Portrait.mxd

82 ± Palmview Kawana TC Caloundra South Kilcoy!H Caboolture West!H North Lakes/ Mango Hill West End/ South Brisbane Rochedale!H Kinross Road Ripley Valley Flagstone Boonah Springfield Park Ridge Logan Yarrabilba Beaudesert Stapylton Coomera Yatala Robina Legend!H Future Bulk Supply Point Seqwater Pipeline Local Government Significant Growth Areas Major Development Areas Map 7 Major Growth Areas km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 30/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 8\130805_MajorGrowthAreas_A4_Portrait.mxd

83 [Ú ± 35 ML/d 18 ML/d [Ú 65 ML/d 67 ML/d 68 ML/d 65 ML/d [Ú 87 ML/d 65 ML/d 107 ML/d [Ú 55 ML/d [Ú[Ú 250 ML/d Map 4 & ML/d [Ú Legend [Ú Flow Meter Reservoir Pump Station Seqwater Pipeline Network Capacity Local Government Areas Map 8 Bulk Network Capacity North [Ú km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 30/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 9\130508_BulkNetworkCapacityNorth_A4_Portrait.mxd

84 [Ú 107 ML/d [Ú 55 ML/d ± [Ú 250 ML/d 80 ML/d [Ú [Ú 180 ML/d 120 ML/d 125 ML/d 200 ML/d [Ú [Ú [Ú 740 ML/d 90 ML/d 120 ML/d 230 ML/d 210 ML/d [Ú [Ú [Ú [Ú 65 ML/d [Ú 60 ML/d [Ú 11 ML/d [Ú [Ú [Ú 9 ML/d 22 ML/d 22 ML/d [Ú 55 ML/d 55 ML/d 65 ML/d 130 ML/d [Ú [Ú 55 ML/d 130 ML/d Map 3 & 9 [Ú [Ú [Ú 130 ML/d [Ú [Ú 80 ML/d 70 ML/d 130 ML/d Legend [Ú Flow Meter Pump Station Reservoir Seqwater Pipeline Network Capacity Local Government Areas Map 9 Bulk Network Capacity South km Scale A4 Disclaimer: Date: 30/08/2013 Seqwater is a Queensland Government statutory authority responsible for ensuring a safe, secure and reliable water supply. In consideration of Seqwater the copyright owners give no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency and suitability) and accept no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs ( including consequential damage), relating to any use of this data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or used in breach GDA 94 Zone 56 of the privacy laws. Path: T:\Operational Services\GIS Services\Spatial\Data_Management_Plan\Working\Amy\130805_WSSP_JMoffatt\Figure 10\130508_BulkNetworkCapacitySouth_A4_Portrait.mxd