The Relevance of System Engineering in Defining Strategic Nuclear Deterrence Needs and Solutions

Transcription

1 The Relevance of Engineering in Defining Strategic Nuclear Deterrence Needs and Solutions PONI Conference, United Kingdom September, 2006 Dr. Troy A. Schilling Northrop Grumman Corporation 0

2 Purpose Define and discuss the Engineering process What is Engineering? Why is Engineering Important? Discuss the relevance of Engineering in identifying our Strategic Nuclear Deterrence needs and solutions 1

3 What is Engineering? Engineering is the art of discovering a system design that optimizes technical performance subject to cost and schedule constraints The Engineering approach is both: Reductionist the goal is to define manageable sub-systems that are independently producible Holistic the philosophical approach focuses on the system as a whole, driving synergistic interaction between subsystems The Engineering process is: Multi-disciplinary and collaborative Objective and inductive Iterative and hierarchical Analytical 2

4 Consequences of Inadequate Engineering Cost/Schedule Impact Due to Re-Work NASA Study Cost Overrun (%) Estimated Cost ($B) Development Budget (%) The Big Dig Year Failure to Meet User Requirements Mars Climate Orbiter Tacoma Narrows Bridge 3

5 The ICBM Community s Approach to Engineering Capture/Define User User Requirements Provide single-shot kill probability P against target X at range Y Define Define Generic Functions Propel Warhead Perform Navigation Derive Derive Requirements, Allocate to to Functions Booster impulse Navigation accuracy Define/Synthesize Design Design Elements 3-Stage Solid Rocket Booster Inertial Guidance A fundamental principal: Resist temptation to assume a design solution infer the solution 4

6 Where to Apply Engineering Does it Make Sense to Apply the Engineering Process to This Level? Political Political /Strategic /Strategic Missile Missile Defense Defense (of (of s) s) Strategic Strategic Nuclear Nuclear Deterrent Deterrent Air Air Breathers Breathers ICBMs ICBMs SLBMs SLBMs Ground Ground Propulsion Propulsion Reentry Reentry Guidance Guidance Bulkhead Bulkhead Fuzing Fuzing Aeroshell Aeroshell Formal Engineering is Typically Applied at These Levels of Refinement Transistor Transistor 5

7 Relevance to Us Engineering Provides Credibility We need a framework with which to identify, capture and refine requirements What does the user need from our future nuclear deterrent? We need a mechanism to justify the solution(s) The systems comprising our deterrent must be linked in a traceable way to user needs Example Do we need lower yield weapons? Why? How does this requirement interact or drive other requirements; e.g. Weight, accuracy, collateral damage, Deterrence credibility, proliferation stability Nuclear weapons production capability / responsiveness 6

8 Relevance to Us Engineering Facilitates Integration/Collaboration User User Needs Needs Political Scientists Policy Policy Experts Engineering Solution Weapon Designers Delivery Engineers We need a mechanism to integrate ideas and analyses across disciplines Requirements-driven group political scientists and policy experts Solution-driven group weapon designers and delivery system engineers Engineering provides a natural bridge for collaboration between groups within the nuclear community 7

9 Conclusion The Engineering discipline was created to facilitate the synthesis of design solutions to complex problems, often in the face of vague requirements Engineering is typically analytical in nature, but can be applied to pseudo-engineering applications such as ours to: Facilitate collaboration between the requirements- and solution-oriented groups Define and document needs and provide traceability between those needs and potential solutions 8