UP M253: Travel Behavior Analysis

Transcription

1 UP M253: Travel Behavior Analysis Spring 2015 Time: M 5:00P - 7:50P Location: PUB AFF Rooms 1337/1015A (LAB) Instructors: Nancy McGuckin Nancy@Travelbehavior.us Srinath Ruju srinath.raju@rajuassociates.com Teaching Assistant: Anne Brown aebrown0316@ucla.edu Course Description This class provides students with diverse perspectives by two successful consultants in the field of transportation planning and analysis. The overall approach will be to examine the uses of travel behavior data analysis for policy and planning. The first part of the course will provide a broad overview of the current applications of travel data, including active travel, safety, energy use and sustainability as well as travel demand estimation and forecasting. The students will learn to access typical federal data sources for transferable data to apply to travel policy and planning applications. The second half of the class will focus on the tools and applications of travel demand modeling for area- wide, sub- regional and regional transportation planning. The students will learn about all the available state- of- the- art transportation models including specific labs to review and apply some of these tools. The applicability of travel demand forecasting and micro- simulation models in the planning and design of transport infrastructure elements will also be discussed. The overall goal of the class is to present the breadth of real- life uses of travel behavior analysis: safety, health and livability, carbon emissions and air quality, mode use, and infrastructure planning, management and improvement. At the end of the class each student will have gained insight into the issues surrounding the measurement of travel behavior, trends and future directions, and the basics of travel demand estimation and forecasting for policy development and transportation planning.

2 Students would have an understanding of the transportation planning process, as well hands- on exposure in the preparation and critique of traffic planning and impact studies. This course along with the urban transport policy and planning course sequence will prepare you to compete for and work at many entry- level positions in the transportation sector with city, county, state and federal governments, MPOs and private consulting firms. Course Requirements Lectures and class discussion. Most of the class time will be a mix of lectures and class discussions of the readings and previous week s concepts. Regular class attendance is expected and the final grade will be based, in part, on regular, informed participation in class. Readings and assignments. There are regular assignments and small projects to complete each week as well as one required reading. The assignments and required reading will be part of the class discussion on the day that they are due. A complete list of the required material is shown below, and suggested readings are shown in each week s description. Students are expected to complete the assignments and required readings prior to the corresponding class session. For deeper coverage of each topic, you can peruse the supplementary readings if the topic is of particular interest to you. Cold- calling. You will be called upon to discuss your assignment and/or the required reading. About 5 students in each lecture will be called at random to provide a summary and some original thoughts/findings about the required reading. Alternately students will be called upon to make a short presentation of the completed assignment for that session in a brief summary. Thus, you should always prepare your thoughts on the reading and assignment before class including your take- aways, questions, things that weren t clear and things that you thought warranted more discussion, etc. Please bring a copy of your assignment to class to help you during the discussion. The distribution and due dates for the required reading and assignments are as follows: Assignment: Assignment #1 Identifying Data Resources Reading for discussion: Sivak, Michael Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked? Assignment #2 Forecasting Future Travel Demand Reading for Discussion: Hauer, E. (2004). The harm done by tests of significance. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 36(3), (CCLE Week 3) Assignment #3 Community goals and performance measures Reading for Discussion: Understanding Bias in Transportation Performance Measures content/uploads/2014/08/ite- Journal- Tumlin.pdf (CCLE Week 4) Review of a Gamified Stated Preference Survey OR My Daily Travel Life AND Assignment #4 Writing a Justification for Data Collection Activities Reading for Discussion: Chen, Cynthia et. Al. Editorial on Passive Data Collection (CCLE Week 5) Due date: Apr 6 April 13 April 20 April 27

3 Assignment #5 On- Line Analysis of Commuting Behavior Data Reading for Discussion: Trip Generation White Paper (Hamburg and McGuckin) (CCLE Week 6) Assignment #6 Overview of Travel Demand Forecasting & Modeling Reading for Discussion: Transportation Research Board Forecasting Metropolitan Travel, Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction, National Research Council. Pages (CCLE Week 6) Assignment #7 - Calibration, Validation & Application of Models Reading for Discussion: 1. Transportation Research Board Current State of the Practice, Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction, National Research Council. Pages ( 2. Transportation Research Board Shortcomings of Current Forecasting Process, Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction, National Research Council. Pages ( These resources are also listed on CCLE Week 6. Assignment #8 - System Performance Measurement & Microscopic Simulation Analysis Reading for Discussion: 1. Meyer, Michael D. and Eric J. Miller Supply Analysis, Urban Transportation Planning: A Decision- Oriented Approach. New York: McGraw- Hill. Pages Meyer, Michael and Eric Miller Transportation System and Project Evaluation, Urban Transportation Planning: A Decision- Oriented Approach. New York: McGraw- Hill. Pages Assignment #9 - Transport Infrastructure Planning Highway, Transit, Bicycle & Pedestrian Reading for Discussion: 1. City of Pasadena General Plan 2004 Mobility Element, Pages Mobility Plan 2035, City of Los Angeles, Pages 56-93, Assignment #10 - Critique of Traffic & Transport Planning Studies & Course Summary Reading for Discussion: 1. Wachs, Martin Reflections on the Planning Process, in The Geography of Urban Transportation, 3 rd Edition, Susan Hanson and Genevieve Giuliano, Editors. New York: The Guilford Press. Pages Wachs, Martin Ethical Dilemmas in Forecasting for Public Policy, in Ethics in Planning, Martin Wachs, Editor. New Brunswick, NJ: Center for URBAN Policy Research. Pages (CCLE Week 7) May 4 May 4 May 11 May 18 May 25 or date of make- up class June 1 Lecture Topics Week 1: Course Introduction and Overview of the Applications of Travel Behavior Data This introduction includes a wide ranging discussion of the many applications of travel behavior data in transportation planning and policy development. There are many entry- level positions in the transportation sector with local, county, state, and federal governments, metropolitan planning organizations, advocacy groups, non- profit organizations, and private consulting firms. The overview of

4 applications of travel behavior includes descriptions of specific projects where travel behavior data was used to effect planning and policy decisions. These projects represent the kinds of tasks that you might be given in various professional roles, and will help you to understand both the patterns of travel behavior and the tools used to analyze and predict travel behavior in planning practice and policy development. Suggested Readings Week 1: The Applications of Travel Behavior Data The Effect of Light Rail Transit on Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at: Intro to Our Energy Future : 001/lecture/3 Understanding Transport Finance: Week 2: Trends in Travel Behavior and the Dynamics of Change This section will look at trend analysis and forecasting issues, such as the growth of special populations: e.g. immigrants, older drivers, workers. The impact of the slowing of growth in VMT, a leading change in travel behavior especially noted in the millennial age cohort, and how that shift in behavior impacts future demand scenarios will be shown. The discussion will include some techniques for identifying uncertainty in travel estimates and demand forecasts, such as margin of error and range rather than point forecasting. The students will apply transferable data describing travel characteristics of a population group and apply those current rates to population forecasts to develop travel demand forecasts. A selection of students will present their findings during class discussion. The discussion will include identifying and communicating margin of error and range rather than point forecasts. Suggested Reading Week 2: Trends in Travel Blumenberg, Evelyn, et al (UCTC), What's Youth Got to Do with It? Exploring the Travel Behavior of Teens and Young Adults, 2012 at: William Frey, The New Metro Minority Map: Regional Shifts in Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks from Census 2010 at: census- race- frey Week 3: Performance Measurement This section will examine how what we measure in travel behavior influences our perception of travel trends. Specifically, performance measures commonly used, such as mode share and level of service, will

5 be deconstructed and compared. The entire policy- driven planning process will be reviewed, from visioning, setting goals, developing benchmarks, and measuring performance using Pasadena Mobility Update 2010 as a case study. Suggested Reading Week 3: Performance Measurement Smart Growth America, Measuring Performance of Complete Streets, at: streets/implementation/measuring- performance?key= Ted Talks: The Frightening Future of Digital Maps: Monica Stephens The Quantified Traveler: Changing transport behavior with personalized travel data feedback G. Jariyasunant, A. Carrel, V. Ekambaram, D. Gaker, R. Sengupta, and Joan L. Walker, UC Berkeley May 2012 at: FR pdf Week 4: Methods for Obtaining Travel Behavior Data This section will include an overview of current survey methods for obtaining data on personal travel, including household travel surveys. The California Household Travel Survey, conducted statewide in 2010, will be used as a case study. The issues related to sample frames, non- response and hard- to- reach groups, and estimation techniques in traditional surveys will be covered. New methods such as capture of cell- phone traces and the use of big data will be discussed and critiqued. Suggested Reading Week 4: Methods for Obtaining Data World Economic Forum: Connected Cars US/nissan/usa/releases/renault- nissan- alliance- at- the world- economic- forum/videos/mit- s- pentland- connnected- cars- will- create- a- more- convenient- world Cervero, Robert Are Induced Travel Studies Inducing Bad Investments? Access, 22: Week 5: Travel Behavior Data in Demand Forecasting This section will cover the basics of the traditional four- step model process: Trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and assignment. Travel demand forecasting is deconstructed first as the calculation of household or person demographics and current travel rates applied to future populations to create a demand scenario. Although the focus will be on trip generation as a key component of the model structure to create trip productions, in addition the value and use of employment data (to create trip attractions) will be discussed.

6 Suggested Reading Week 5: Travel Behavior Data in Demand Forecasting William Frey, The Uneven Aging and "Younging" of America: State and Metropolitan Trends in the 2010 Census at: census- age- frey Pisarski and Polzin, et al. Commuting in America IV, Brief #9 How Commuting Influences Travel, published by AASHTO at: df Week 6: Overview of Travel Demand Forecasting & Modeling This section will cover the model structures, data input and assumptions associated with the various sub- models utilized within the overall framework of travel demand forecasting process. The basic theory and methods of developing trip generation, distribution, mode- split and traffic assignment models will be discussed for the traditional models. Suggested Readings Week 6: Travel Demand Forecasting Models Johnston, Robert A The Urban Transportation Planning Process, in The Geography of Urban Transportation, 3 rd Edition, Susan Hanson and Genevieve Giuliano, Editors. New York: The Guilford Press. Pages Transportation Research Board Institutional Framework for Travel Demand Modeling, Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction, National Research Council. Pages Papacostas, C.S. and P.D. Prevedourous Transportation Planning, in Transportation Engineering and Planning, 3 rd Edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice- Hall. Pages Papacostats, C.S. and P.D. Precedouros Travel Demand Forecasting Trip Generation, in Transportation Engineering and Planning, 3 rd Edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ Prentice- Hall. Pages Meyer, Michael and Eric Miller Transportation Planning and Decision Making, Urban Transportation Planning: A Decision- Oriented Approach. New York: McGraw- Hill. Pages Week 7: Calibration, Validation & Application of Models This section will cover the theory and practice of calibration and validation of the individual components of travel demand forecasting models. Application of these models in regional, sub- regional and site-

7 specific transportation planning will be discussed. Specific examples relative to application of these models will be included. Suggested Readings Week 7: Calibration, Validation & Application of Models Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Soren L. Buhl How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation. Journal of the American Planning Association 71, no. 2: Meyer, Michael and Eric Miller Demand Analysis, Urban Transportation Planning: A decision- Oriented Approach. New York: McGraw- Hill. Pages Week 8: System Performance Measurement & Microscopic Simulation Analysis This section will cover the analysis of various transportation system elements and the relationship of growth in land- use and demographics in a region to the travel demand forecasts on the transportation system. Detailed examples of these topics within the travel demand forecasting model framework will be discussed. A discussion of the various performance measures of the transportation system will be included. Description of microscopic simulation models and their utility in transport planning practice will be presented. Suggested Readings Week 8: System Performance Measurement & Microscopic Simulation Analysis Shoup, Donald Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong, Access, 20: ( Papacostas, C.S. and P.D. Prevedours Capacity and Level of Services Analysis, in Transportation Engineering and Planning, 3 rd Edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice- Hall. Pages Week 9: Transport Infrastructure Planning Highway, Transit, Bicycle & Pedestrian This section will cover the overall transport infrastructure planning process and the use of travel behavior models in the development of highway, transit, bicycle and pedestrian plans. Integration of the various components of these individual elements into a comprehensive transportation plan will be discussed. Performance measurement and evaluation of effectiveness of the various elements of the plan will be covered. Suggested Readings Week 9: Transport Infrastructure Planning Shoup, Donald The Access Almanac: The Pedigree of Statistic, Access, 11, 41. (

8 Downs, Anthony Increasing Road- Carrying Capacity, in Still Stuck in Traffic: Coping with Peak- Hour Traffic Congestion. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution. Pages Regional Transportation Plan , Sustainable Communities Strategy, Interactive RTP Week 10: Critique of Traffic & Transport Planning Studies & Course Summary This section will cover the steps involved in the preparation of transport planning and traffic studies. New directions in travel demand modeling and forecasting; and traffic impact studies will be discussed. Critiques of traffic impact analyses as well as the travel forecasting and decision- making processes will be included. An overall summary of the understanding of travel behavior, travel behavior analyses in the planning process and a critique of traffic and transport planning studies will be presented. Suggested Readings Week 10: Traffic Impact Studies & Course Summary Papacostas, C.S. and P.D. Prevedouros Traffic Impact and Parking Studies, in Transportation Engineering and Planning, 3 rd Edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice- Hall. Pages Shoup, Donald Truth in Transportation Planning, Journal of Transportation Statistics, 6(1): ( f/entire.pdf) Pickerel, Don A Desire Named Streetcar: Fantasy and Fact in Rail Transit Planning Journal of the American Planning Association, 58(2): Garret, Mark and Martin Wachs Transportation Planning on Trial: The Clean Air Act and Travel Forecasting. Thousand Oaks, CA. Sage Publications.