Botswana Insurance Holdings Ltd

Transcription

1 Stockbrokers Botswana Research Botswana Insurance Holdings Ltd Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited published their final results for the year to March Overall the results were in line with our expectations of a tough trading year. Recurring premium income grew 11% while net single premium grew a sterling 114%. Overall premium income was up 38% to P489m. The investment returns showed the far better performance of the underlying investments, growing from negative P2m in 2003 to positive P266m. Total income was therefore up 115%. Operational costs were well contained at 11% up on 2003, with the better investment performance and increase in premium income(especially single premiums) resulting in substantially higher transfers to meet policyholder liabilities P359m against P32m in In the balance sheet, assets employed were up 34% on the back on a 40% growth in policyholder liabilities and a 36% rise in investments to P6bn. Embedded value growth was good EV grew 22% to P772m (from P2.32 to P2.80 per share), boosted by P20m of assumption and methodology changes. We derive intrinsic DCF and DDM values of 486t and 298t. The stock is relatively cheap on the basis of its dividend yield and PER in comparison to its peers. The counter is on a historic and forward PER of 8.2x and 7.8x and offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.3%. This discount is further enhanced by the net dividend of 13.6 thebe per share as the stock goes ex-dividend on 25 June At the current price of 315t, we recommend the stock as a buy to 350t. Key Financials Year ended March (P) F Total premium income (m) Premium income growth -3.5% 42.0% 38.0% 11.0% Earnings per share P/E Ratio (x) Earnings growth 198.5% -29.6% 3.7% 4.5% Headline EPS Headline P/E Ratio (x) Headline earnings growth 204.3% -28.4% 3.5% 7.5% Dividend per share Dividend yield 4.0% 5.4% 6.3% 6.6% Net Asset Value Price / NAV (x) Return on equity 32.2% 20.2% 18.7% 18.1% Embedded Value per share Price / Embedded value (x) Policyholder liabilities (m) 2,497 3,989 5,568 6,038 Buy P3.15 USD 0.67 June 15, 2004 Trading & Liquidity Mkt cap (Pm) 868 Mkt cap (US$m) 184 DCI Mkt weight 8.1% Shares in issue (m) Free float 46.0% Annual Liquidity 5.9% 12 month high month low 190 Codes BSE Reuters Bloomberg BIHL BIHL.BT BIHL BG ISIN No BW 0033 Results Date of last report 19-Apr t Buy Last results Finals- Jun 04 Expected results Interims - Nov 04 Analysts Wayne Osterberg Mishnah Seth Sales Kennedy Kgomanyane Sayi Dewah BIHL Vs DI Rebased BIHL wayne@sbb.bw mishnah@sbb.bw kennedy@sbb.bw sayi@sbb.bw DCI Rebased 150 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Ground Floor, Barclays House, Private Bag 00113, Gaborone Tel: Fax:

2 Botswana Life The Life business was key in overall group performance with single premium income increasing 114% and recurring premium income up 11%. Botswana Life has a market share of approximately 70% The division has successfully upgraded to a client-centric database. This is expected to lead to the improvement of the quality of service to clients. Botswana Life boasts a market share of approximately 70% through its three disribution channels: their own sales force through their ten branches throughout the country; through brokers and lastly through independent agencies. Botswana Insurance Fund Management BIFM managed to keep funds under management at the P6bn mark albeit the P750m funds that it transferred to Investec in the second half of its financial year. The transfer took place as the Government appointed Investec as the fourth asset manager of the BPOPF and did not inject any new funds in the market. This meant that the current three fund managers each had to trans fer an equal portion of their book to Investec. Investments under management benefited from a turnaround in global and domestic market performance. Funds under management remain at the P6bn mark Operations remain strong as profit margin has been kept stable. Income Statement The results showed a 38% increase in premium income and an 11% rise in selling and operating expenditure. Recurring premium income growth of 11% continues to trail significantly behind single premium income growth of 114%. For the current year the significant rise is mainly due to the shifting of pensions that were previously managed by Government to the Group. We expect the growth in single premium income to drop going forward. With a maturing market, the group should now focus on the efficiency of its recurring income which is a more stable form of income growth. Recurring individual premium income is accounted for at the policy anniversary date and provisions are subsequently made to account for policy lapses and other terminations while Group benefit insurance premiums are accounted for when receivables and collections are reasonably assured, or otherwise when received. The difference in recognition of the two arises due to type of contracts that each line item represents. Individual insurance policies are annual contracts, which therefore results in BIHL recognizing the entire revenue arising for the contract at initiation of the contract with the corresponding liability being reflected in the balance sheet. Group benefit insurance premiums are not annual and thus their duration depends on the needs of the group or company that has bought the contract. Favorable domestic equity Growth in individual premium income as once again sterling Turnaround in equity markets boosted the bottom line At half year net investment return was P104m which increased a further P162m to P266m at year end. The higher return was driven by the turnaround in the domestic and foreign markets. Another boost as provided by the Pula devaluation in February (7.5%) which lead to a stronger offshore return when translated back into Pula terms. The group has adopted IAS39 which requires unrealized gains/losses to be shown in the statement of changes in equity, thereby not affecting income and profitability. The net effect of this is - 2 -

3 that income growth is less volatile as gains will only flow through to the income statement once assets are sold or marked-to-market (in the event of reclassification). For the current period if the reclassification had not occurred an investment surplus of P27m would have flown through the income statement. The restatement of2003 figures lead to an investment loss of P14.6m being removed from the income statement and reflected directly in statement of changes in equity. Operating expense growth was kept tight Selling expenses which largely relate to commissions grew 19% on an annual basis while operating expenses grew 5%. Overall expenditure was up 11%. Transfers to policyholder liabilities represent those funds that have been actuarially determined as necessary to meet future life policyholder payments. This line item is a function of premium income and investment return, with a higher investment return and higher group offers three products on which it has to provide returns: the first is a guaranteed return, the second a floating return based on market performance and lastly a floating return plus a fixed rate (this fixed rate is smaller than the guaranteed return offered in the first product). A higher outgo translated into a fall in surplus from operations Surplus from operations at P116m was 4.7% down year-on-year on the back of one-off policyloans write off as a result of data clean up on the implementation of the new system. This is reflected under the higher policyholder benefits paid. A lower effective tax rate of 11.5% however lead to a slight growth in the bottom-line of 2%. The lower tax bill is on the back of a previous provi sioning of P9m that was made in the last financial year relating to the adoption of FSV by the group which was reversed in the current year. The reverse of the over-provisioning was therefore a one-off event. Future tax rate is expected to revert back to the group s normal rate of approximately 17.5%. Investment income on free assets at P27.6m was 24% lower than the previous year. The fall is due to BIHL s stake in KYS and the investment that the group put towards the development of IFSC. KYS is an unlisted investment holding company that holds a 35% stake in Afritourism and a 20% interest in Gaborone Sun.For the current period it did not pay any dividends as its underlying investment in Afritourism did not perform well. Using the funds for the development of the property has meant that less group cash is free and therefore available to earn interest on. Free assets were deployed for the construction of IFSC, hence the lower return on free assets Balance sheet Total assets grew 36% to P6bn from P4.4bn, largely due to stronger investment performance. Of the P6bn investments 40% is invested offshore and 60% locally. In terms of asset class, equities at 60% still represent the majority of the asset base. The higher equity weighting therefore benefited the group as both offshore and local equities market experienced positive returns. Total assets are up 36% Under group liabilities, policies under insurance contracts grew 54% to P1bn and liabilities under investment contracts grew 37% to P4.5bn. As expected the growth in policies under investment - 3 -

4 contracts was much lower than at half year stage and is expected to continue to grow at such levels as new BPOPF inflows will be low going forward as BPOPF is largely complete in terms of transfers. Embedded Value Embedded value for the group which represents the economic value of the group grew 22% to P772m. Value of in-force at P223m was the greatest contributor to this value. This line item represents the present value future after tax profits from business in force, discounted at the risk free rate and adjusted for the cost of capital that is required to support the business. For the current period the group has reduced its discount rate to 13.5% from 16.5% on the previous year and 15% at half year. African Life s South African and Namibian operations have used a discount rate of 13.2% for the current period. Taking down the discount rate to 13.5% level has lead to an increase in the embedded value of P19m. Embedded value earnings are up substantially on the year Embedded value earnings of P198m is up substantially from previous year earnings of P110m. Of this P19m relates solely to the reduction of the discount rate to 13.5%. Roll forward earnings of P88m was 98% year-on-year on the back of a positive investment return of P23m and the P19m gain due to scaling down of the discount rate. Lapses/persistancy relates to those premiums that the group expects not to collect. The negative P17m persistancy figure under experience variance relates to the loss of future fee income due to the transfer of P750m of funds that the group will no longer be managing. The negative persistancy figure of P11m shown under changes in assumptions and methodology gives the groups future reseving expectations with regard to lapses or persistancies. This has been kept relatively stable year-on-year. Capital Adequacy Cover is 3.6x. The mix of assets backing the CAR in Botswana and African life s South African and Namibian operations are as follows: Asset Class South Africa Botswana Namibia Fixed Interest 9.6% 40.7% 92.0% Property - 1.7% - Equities 81.3% 57.6% 0.0% Cash 9.1% - 8.0% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: JSE NEWS Service EV of P772m translates into an embedded value per share of P2.87 which is P0.29 per share higher than at interim stage

5 Outlook and Valuation The results reflect a sound performance by the insurance group and we forecast a 5% increase in the bottom-line in the current year on the back of a lower persistency, a smaller growth in single premium income and a higher effective tax rate of 17.5%. We target 350t as the fair value and recommend it as a Buy at the current share price of 315t We derive an intrinsic DCF and DDM value of 486t and 298t. The stock is relatively cheap on the basis of its dividend yield and PER in comparison to its peers. It is however overvalued on a premium to EV basis. We target 350t as its fair value on the basis that its South African counterparts are using a lower Discount rate and hence derive a greater embedded value. Within the South African counters Aflife uses the highest equity risk premium (and hence highest discount rate) with Old Mutual following and Liberty uses the lowest discount rate assumption. A lower discount rate gives a richer valuation. The share price has weakened since publication of results which offers a buying opportunity at a discount to fair value. This discount is further enhanced by the net dividend of 13.6 thebe per share as the stock goes ex-dividend on 25 June At the current price of 315t, we recommend the stock as a buy to 350t. Peer stock Premium to EV Div Yield PER Forward PER P/BV African Life -31% 6.0% Liberty -13% 5.3% Old Mutual -11% 4.8% Weighted averages -11.8% 4.9% BIHL 8.9% 6.3% (Discount)/ Premium to weighted Average n/a 30% -20% 11% 24% BIHL derived value if SA weighted average is applied (t) Source JP Morgan and own estimates - 5 -

6 Financials Year to 31 March (Pm) % ch 2005F Income Statement Net recurring premium income % 321 Net single premium income % 221 Total premium income % 543 Investment return 350 (2) 266 n/a 689 Total income % 1,232 Selling and operational expenses (101) (117) (129) 10.6% (145) Policyholder benefits paid (67) (82) (152) 84.9% (182) Transfer to policyholder liabilities (240) (32) (359) % (775) Surplus from operations % 130 Share of associates profits % 3 Pre-tax Profit % 132 Taxation charge (54) (22) (13) -37.5% (23) Profit after tax % 109 Minorities (2) (3) (1) -76.3% (1) Attributable earnings % 108 Balance Sheet Shareholders' equity % 596 Minorities & deferred tax % 13 Policyholder liabilities 2,497 3,989 5, % 6,038 under insurance contracts , % 1,081 under investment contracts 1,868 3,328 4, % 4,957 Current Liabilities % 153 Total Funds Employed 3,169 4,655 6, % 6,801 Investments 2,971 4,423 5, % 6,535 Fixed Assets % 18 Intangible assets % 14 Current Assets % 234 Total Assets Employed 3,169 4,655 6, % 6,801 Embedded Value Embedded value at beginning of year % 772 Roll forward % 89 Value of new business % 70 Changes in assumptions and methodology (21) (0) 20 n/a 0 Experience variations % 1 Total earnings % 160 Dividends paid (3) (46) (61) 32.5% (80) Embedded value at end of year % 852 Ratios Earnings per share (t) change % n/a -30% 4% 4% Headline Earnings per share (t) change % n/a -28% 4% 7% Dividend per share (t) NAV per share (t) Dividend cover Embedded value per share (t) change % n/a 14.7% 19.7% 0.0% Return on shareholder assets 32.2% 20.2% 18.7% 18.1% Growth in recurring premium income 0.7% 19.8% 10.9% 11.0% Growth in total premium income -3.5% 42.0% 38.0% 11.0% Growth in Life Funds 59.6% 59.8% 39.6% 8.5% - 6 -

7 This research report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The securities referred to in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. The information contained in this report has been compiled by Stockbrokers Botswana Limited ( SBB ) from sources it believes to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given by SBB or any other person as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report are (unless otherwise indicated) entirely those of SBB as of the date of this report only and are subject to change without notice. Neither SBB, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Each recipient of this report shall be solely responsible for making its own independent investigation of the business, financial condition and prospects of companies referred to in this report. SBB and its respective affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report may, from time to time, (1) have positions in, and buy or sell, the securities of companies referred to in this report (or in related investments); (2) have a consulting, investment banking or broking relationship with a company referred to in this report; and (3) to the extent permitted under applicable law, have acted upon or used information contained or referred to in this report including effecting transactions for their own account in an investment (or related investment) in respect of any company referred to in this report, prior to or immediately following its publication. This report may not hav e been distributed to all recipients at the same time