METEOROLOGICKÝ ČASOPIS METEOROLOGICAL JOURNAL CONTENTS OBSAH ROČNÍK 10 - ČÍSLO VOLUME 10 - NUMBER INFORMÁCIE INFORMATION
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1 METEOROLOGICAL JOURNAL VOLUME 10 - NUMBER METEOROLOGICKÝ ČASOPIS ROČNÍK 10 - ČÍSLO CONTENTS EARLY INSTRUMENTAL METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS IN THE CZECH LANDS III: FRANTIŠEK JINDŘICH JAKUB KREYBICH, ŽITENICE, R. Brázdil, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, O. Kotyza CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CEREAL CROPPING IN RUSSIA AND OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION Mikhail V. Nikolaev MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MAIZE (ZEA MAYS L.) YIELDS IN CONDITIONS OF THE DANUBIAN LOWLAND Bernard Šiška, Pavel Samuhel THE EVALUATION OF WATER STAGE FORECASTING IN STREDA NAD BODROGOM BY MIKE 11 DURING THE EXPERIMENTAL OPERATION Martina Psotová, Lucia Sokolová THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLA- TION ON TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC Marie Doleželová OBSAH ČASNÁ PŘÍSTROJOVÁ METEOROLOGICKÁ POZOROVÁNÍ V ČESKÝCH ZEMÍCH III: FRANTIŠEK JINDŘICH JAKUB KREYBICH, ŽITENICE, R. Brázdil, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, O. Kotyza DÔSLEDKY KLIMATICKEJ ZMENY NA ÚRODU OBILNÍN V RUSKU A ADAPTAČNÉ STRATÉGIE Mikhail V. Nikolaev MODELOVANIE VPLYVU KLIMATICKEJ ZMENY NA ÚRODU KUKURICE SIATEJ (ZEA MAYS L.) V PODMIENKACH PODUNAJSKEJ NÍŽINY Bernard Šiška, Pavel Samuhel VYHODNOTENIE PREDPOVEDE VODNÉHO STAVU PRE STREDU NAD BODROGOM PREDPOVEDNÝM SYSTÉMOM MIKE 11 POČAS SKÚŠOBNEJ PREVÁDZKY Martina Psotová, Lucia Sokolová PROJEVY SEVEROATLANTSKÉ OSCILACE V ČASOVÉ VARIABILITĚ TEPLOTY VZDUCHU A SRÁŽEK NA ÚZEMÍ ČESKÉ REPUBLIKY Marie Doleželová INFORMATION 15 th WMO Congress Peter Rončák CIMO-XIV, TECO-2006 Igor Zahumenský World water day and World meteorological day Ján Kucharčík The open day at SHMÚ Mária Mirtová, Katarína Pukančíková Current trends of GMES programme Štefan Škulec years of SHMÚ Air quality department Dušan Závodský Conference Air 2007 Katarína Spišáková Zero carbon city Dušan Závodský Climate Atlas of the Czech Republic Milan Lapin PERSONALS INFORMÁCIE 15. Svetový meteorologický kongres Peter Rončák CIMO-XIV, TECO-2006 Igor Zahumenský Svetový deň vody a Svetový meteorologický deň Ján Kucharčík Deň otvorených dverí na SHMÚ1 Mária Mirtová, Katarína Pukančíková Aktuálny vývoj v rámci programu GMES Štefan Škulec rokov odboru Kvalita ovzdušia SHMÚ Dušan Závodský Konferencia Ovzduší 2007 Katarína Spišáková Zero carbon city - mesto bez emisií uhlíka Dušan Závodský Atlas podnebia Českej republiky Milan Lapin PERSONÁLIE
2 EARLY INSTRUMENTAL METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS IN THE CZECH LANDS III: FRANTIŠEK JINDŘICH JAKUB KREYBICH, ŽITENICE, RUDOLF BRÁZDIL 1, LADISLAVA ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ 1, HUBERT VALÁŠEK 2, OLDŘICH KOTYZA 3 1 Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Czech Republic 2 Moravian Land Archives, Žerotínovo nám. 3 5, Brno, Czech Republic 3 Regional Museum, Mírové nám. 171, Litoměřice, Czech Republic František Jakub Jindřich Kreybich ( ) worked as parish priest in Žitenice, where he carried out meteorological observations in Kreybich s handwritten daily records are preserved in the Archives of the Academy of Sciences, Prague, the Czech Republic; they are fragmentary before 1800, then form a continuous series from November 1800 to December Data from Žitenice at the level of monthly values exist for , published by Strnadt (1795) then, starting with 1817, they appeared regularly in the publications of the I. R. Patriotic-Economic Society. For the period November 1800 December 1818, the analysis of air pressure and temperature, wind direction and the frequency of selected meteorological phenomena is carried out on the basis of daily values. Monthly series of air pressure and temperature at Žitenice have been homogenised for the period November 1800 December 1829 through reference to measurements recorded at the Prague-Klementinum and Vienna-Hohe Warte stations. ČASNÁ PŘÍSTROJOVÁ METEOROLOGICKÁ POZOROVÁNÍ V ČESKÝCH ZEMÍCH III: FRANTIŠEK JINDŘICH JAKUB KREYBICH, ŽITENICE, RUDOLF BRÁZDIL 1, LADISLAVA ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ 1, HUBERT VALÁŠEK 2, OLDŘICH KOTYZA 3 1 Geografický ústav, Masarykova univerzita, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Česká republika 2 Moravský zemský archív, Žerotínovo nám. 3 5, Brno, Česká republika 3 Regionální muzeum, Mírové nám. 171, Litoměřice, Česká republika František Jakub Jindřich Kreybich ( ) působil jako farář v Žitenicích, kde prováděl svá meteorologická pozorování v letech Kreybichovy rukopisné denní záznamy jsou dochovány v Archivu AV ČR v Praze ve fragmentech před rokem 1800 a v souvislé řadě z období listopad 1800 prosinec Na úrovni měsíčních hodnot z let jsou uvedeny údaje z Žitenic v publikaci Strnada (1795) a od roku 1817 byly pravidelně publikovány ve spisech c. k. Vlastenecko-hospodářské společnosti. Pro období listopad 1800 prosinec 1818 je na základě denních hodnot provedena statistická analýza tlaku a teploty vzduchu, směru větru a četností výskytu vybraných meteorologických jevů. Měsíční řady tlaku a teploty vzduchu v Žitenicích byly pro období listopad 1800 prosinec 1829 homogenizovány podle měření stanic Praha-Klementinum a Vídeň-Hohe Warte.
3 CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CEREAL CROPPING IN RUSSIA AND OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION MIKHAIL V. NIKOLAEV Agrophysical Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia,, Riss-Würm Interglacial climatic optimum is considered as a paleoanalog scenario of global warming by The potential changes in climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture content, etc) as well as agronomical/technological parameters are analyzed. A possible shift in distribution of crops is shown as well. The Agroecological analog method is used to define the areas vulnerable to potential risk of crop damage by pests, diseases and weeds with warming process. In conclusion, a number of adaptation measures and strategies for crop cultivation under climatic changes in Russia are presented. DÔSLEDKY KLIMATICKEJ ZMENY NA ÚRODU OBILNÍN V RUSKU A ADAPTAČNÉ STRATÉGIE MIKHAIL V. NIKOLAEV Agrophysical Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia,, clenrusa@mail.ru, office@agrophys.ru Klimatické optimum v období interglaciálu Riss-Würm sa dá považovať za paleoanalóg scenáru globálneho otepľovania pre obdobie Potenciálne zmeny klimatických prvkov (teplota vzduchu, atmosférické zrážky, vlhkosť pôdy atď.), ako aj agrotechnických parametrov predstavujú predmet prezentovanej analýzy. Tiež sa tu uvádza možná zmena rozšírenia poľnohospodárskych plodín. Metóda agroekologického analógu sa používa na definovanie zraniteľnosti územia na potenciálne riziko v dôsledku zmeny klímy, najmä poškodenia chorobami, patogénmi, burinami a procesmi súvisiacimi s oteplením. V závere sa uvádza rad navrhovaných adaptačných opatrení a stratégií pri pestovaní plodín za meniacich sa klimatických podmienok v Rusku.
4 MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MAIZE (ZEA MAYS L.) YIELDS IN CONDITIONS OF THE DANUBIAN LOWLAND BERNARD ŠIŠKA, PAVEL SAMUHEL Department of Biometeorology and Hydrology, SPU Nitra, Hospodárska 7, Nitra, Slovakia, Modeling of changing CO 2 concentration impact on maize yields by dynamic crop model CERES-Maize in combination with stochastic weather generator WeatherMan were used for climate change impact analysis in the Danubian lowland conditions. The field trial located with maize cultivar LG (FAO 310) was used to validate the model during the years Meteo-data for the condition of 1.5 x CO 2 climate were generated according to the general circulation model CCCM 2000 (Lapin et al., 2000). Simulations for the periods resulted in the fact that increased CO 2 concentrations in changing climate will depress yields of maize. An increase of air temperature will affect the duration of the vegetative period of maize and consequently decrease the income of solar radiation. The maize production of 1 1 grain yield will decrease from kg.ha to kg.ha in conditions of climate 1.5 x CO2. The effect of sowing date shift derived from onset of mean air temperatures 10 and 12 C in conditions of changing climate were analyzed as an adaptive measure. MODELOVANIE VPLYVU KLIMATICKEJ ZMENY NA ÚRODU KUKURICE SIATEJ (ZEA MAYS L.) V PODMIENKACH PODUNAJSKEJ NÍŽINY BERNARD ŠIŠKA, PAVEL SAMUHEL Katedra biometeorológie a hydrológie, SPU Nitra, Hospodárska 7, Nitra, bernard.siska@uniag.sk, sinuhed@centrum.sk Vplyv meniacej sa koncentrácie CO 2 na úrodu zrna kukurice v podmienkach Podunajskej nížiny bol simulovaný modelom CERES-Maize a stochastickým generátorom počasia WeatherMan. Pre validáciu modelu bol použitý kultivar LG (FAO 310). Meteorologické údaje pre podmienky klímy 1,5 x CO 2 boli generované podľa výstupov modelu všeobecnej cirkulácie atmosféry CCCM 2000 (Lapin et al., 2000). Na základe výsledkov simulácií pre obdobie rokov sa dá predpokladať, že zvýšená koncentrácia CO 2 v podmienkach meniacej sa klímy zníži úrody kukurice. Zvýšenie teploty vzduchu skráti trvanie vegetačného obdobia kukurice a následne zníži príkon globálneho žiarenia. Úroda zrna kukurice pravdepodobne poklesne z kg.ha 1 na kg.ha 1 v podmienkach klímy 1,5 x CO 2. Ako možné adaptačné opatrenie bol analyzovaný vplyv zmeny termínu sejby odvodeného podľa nástupu dní s priemernou dennou teplotou vzduchu 10 resp. 12 C.
5 THE EVALUATION OF WATER STAGE FORECASTING IN STREDA NAD BODROGOM BY MIKE 11 DURING THE EXPERIMENTAL OPERATION MARTINA PSOTOVÁ, LUCIA SOKOLOVÁ Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Ďumbierska 26, Košice, Slovakia This paper concerns with the evaluation of water stage forecast results at the discharge measurement cross section Streda nad Bodrogom. As a pilot basin for this project, the Bodrog river basin has been chosen. This river system consists of four main rivers which have an unsuitable impact on occurring high-water flood situations in this area. In this article the forecast results of methodology Hydrometric forecast with the results of MIKE 11 model during 5 months of observation are compared. The presented results have been obtained within the framework of the Danish Slovakia Project Flood Management in Slovakia and Ukraine. The MIKE 11 Model has been developed by the Danish hydraulic institute. DHI Water & Environment is a world leader in the research, development and application of technologies and solutions for water-related issues. In this case the model output is the water stage 24 hours forecast. The MIKE 11 Model has been calibrated and verified on data from the period of Hydrological data were provided from the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute in Košice. The model is running under a trial version at the Hydrological information and forecasting service (HIPS SHMÚ) in Košice. The methodology evaluation is according to norm OTN ŽP 3105:05 and the obtained results showed that the Hydrometric forecast is more successful than the results of the model forecast. VYHODNOTENIE PREDPOVEDE VODNÉHO STAVU PRE STREDU NAD BODROGOM PREDPOVEDNÝM SYSTÉMOM MIKE 11 POČAS SKÚŠOBNEJ PREVÁDZKY MARTINA PSOTOVÁ, LUCIA SOKOLOVÁ Slovenský hydrometeorologický ústav, Ďumbierska 26, Košice Uvedený článok sa zaoberá vyhodnotením predpovede vodného stavu s predstihom na 24 hodín v profile Streda nad Bodrogom. Ako pilotné povodie bolo vybrané povodie rieky Bodrog. Tento riečny systém je tvorený štyrmi hlavnými riekami stretávajúcimi sa na malom priestore, čo má vplyv na tvorbu veľkých vôd a vznik povodňových situácií. V práci sú porovnané výsledky predpovedí vodných stavov metodikou Hydrometrická predpoveď s výsledkami modelu MIKE 11 počas pozorovaného obdobia piatich mesiacov. Prezentované výsledky sú získané v rámci dánsko-slovenského projektu Povodňový manažment na Slovensku a Ukrajine na Regionálnom stredisku SHMÚ v Košiciach a Odštepnom závode Košice SVP, š. p. Tento model bol kalibrovaný a verifikovaný na obdobie Hydrologické údaje boli poskytnuté Slovenským hydrometeorologickým ústavom Košice. V súčasnosti model beží v skúšobnej prevádzke na hydrologickej informačnej predpovednej službe (HIPS SHMÚ) v Košiciach. Vyhodnotenie metodík je podľa normy OTN ŽP 3105:05. Získané výsledky poukazujú, že metodika Hydrometrická predpoveď je úspešnejšia než výstupy modelu MIKE 11.
6 THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ON TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC MARIE DOLEŽELOVÁ Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Czech Republic, The paper deals with the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the climate in the Czech Republic. The introductory part is devoted to general description of NAO mechanism including the list of indices being used to express it and the statistical methods that were used. Climatic influence of the NAO in the Czech Republic was studied by means of correlation and coherency analysis between the time series of air temperature and precipitation and five different circulation indices (NAO indices according to Hurrell, Jones, Luterbacher and Rogers and CEZI index). Among the main achievements of this work is the proof of the existence of the relation between NAO and the temperature in the Czech Republic which is significant mainly in the winter season. On the other hand, the relation with the precipitation mostly does not reach the threshold of statistical significance. In the winter season, the extremes of NAO are positively correlated with temperature anomalies. The relationship with precipitation anomalies in the chosen months (September and December) is not so evident. Attention was also given to the statistical characteristics of time series of particular circulation indices and to the relationship between NAO and the occurrence of various synoptic situations (according to the typification of the team of Hydrometeorological institute (HMI)). PROJEVY SEVEROATLANTSKÉ OSCILACE V ČASOVÉ VARIABILITĚ TEPLOTY VZDUCHU A SRÁŽEK NA ÚZEMÍ ČESKÉ REPUBLIKY MARIE DOLEŽELOVÁ Geografický ústav, Přírodovědecká fakulta, Masarykova univerzita, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Česká republika, mdolezelova@mail.muni.cz Práce se zabývá problematikou Severoatlantské oscilace (NAO) ve vztahu k jejímu vlivu na klima České republiky (ČR). Úvodní část je věnována obecnému popisu mechanizmu NAO, použitých cirkulačních indexů a statistických metod. Hlavním předmětem zájmu je prověření vlivu NAO na teplotní a srážkové poměry ČR prostřednictvím korelační a koherenční analýzy včetně vztahu s anomáliemi těchto meteorologických prvků. NAO je zde vyjádřeno pomocí čtyř indexů podle různých autorů (Hurrell, Jones, Luterbacher a Rogers). Pro srovnání byl použit rovněž středoevropský zonální index (CEZI). K hlavním dosaženým výsledkům patří potvrzení existence statisticky významného vztahu mezi NAO a teplotou vzduchu, který je nejmarkantnější v zimním období. Naopak vztah se srážkami je většinou nevýznamný. Uvedené skutečnosti se promítají i do vztahu NAO s extrémy obou meteorologických prvků. Zimní extrémy NAO jsou spjaty s teplotními anomáliemi statisticky významnou pozitivní korelační závislostí. V případě srážkových anomálií ve vybraných měsících s nejsilnější korelací mezi NAO a srážkovými řadami (září a prosinec) nebyl zjištěn žádný vztah s extrémy NAO. Práce se doplňkově zabývá také souvislostí mezi NAO a výskytem různých typů synoptických situací podle klasifikace ČHMÚ.
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