VLE-Surveillance package

Transcription

1 A modular simulation tool Innovative Tools for Assessment of Health Surveillance Systems Bangkok December /20

2 Presentation guideline 1 What do we expect from this tool? 2 : Modelling formalism & software systems 3 Presentation of the simulation tool 4 5 Case study : test CR methods for HPAI in Thailand 2/20

3 What we expect from this tool? Simulate : The disease spread The data collection performed by the surveillance system The disease control (TO DO) In order to : Quantitatively evaluate adequacy between surveillance system estimation and epidemic Optimize the sampling process parameterization Present the surveillance system sampling strategy in a didactic and/or contextualized way 3/20

4 Presentation guideline DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software 1 What do we expect from this tool? 2 : Modelling formalism & software systems Dynamical systems modelling with DEVS Simulators development environment : VLE software 3 Presentation of the simulation tool 4 5 Case study : test CR methods for HPAI in Thailand 4/20

5 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) Dynamic system specification (Zeigler 2000) A mathematical structure to represent dynamical systems : X, Y, S, δ ext, δ int, δ con, λ, ta ([Zeigler et al.(2000)zeigler, Kim, and Praehofer]) 5/20

6 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) Interesting features (Zeigler 2000) Rigorous and complete specification Modularity and hierarchical decomposition Multi-formalism Discrete time systems Differential equations Discretized systems Quantized systems 6/20

7 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) Experimental frame specification 7/20

8 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) software Model structure specification 8/20

9 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) software Model structure specification 8/20

10 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) software Model Dynamic specification 9/20

11 DEVS formalism Simulators development environment : VLE software Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) software Experiment specification 10/20

12 Presentation guideline Disease spread modular model Surveillance modular model s outputs 1 What do we expect from this tool? 2 : Modelling formalism & software systems 3 Presentation of the simulation tool Disease spread modular model Surveillance modular model s outputs 4 5 Case study : test CR methods for HPAI in Thailand 11/20

13 Disease spread modular model Surveillance modular model s outputs Disease spread model Eidemiological units : Building model library Automaton models SIR, SEIR, SIRS,.. Differential equation models SIR, SEIR, SIRS,.. In an infectious contact network 12/20

14 Disease spread modular model Surveillance modular model s outputs Surveillance model Set of surveillance components Two kinds of components : Pro-active Event-based Main features : Obsevation policy Perception error Analyse features 13/20

15 s outputs Disease spread modular model Surveillance modular model s outputs Visualize results of a single experiment Test surveillance protocols with experimental plans Summary charts 14/20

16 Presentation guideline 1 What do we expect from this tool? 2 : Modelling formalism & software systems 3 Presentation of the simulation tool 4 Single experiment Experiment plans using R software 5 Case study : test CR methods for HPAI in Thailand 15/20

17 Presentation guideline 1 What do we expect from this tool? 2 : Modelling formalism & software systems 3 Presentation of the simulation tool 4 5 Case study : test CR methods for HPAI in Thailand 16/20

18 Test CR methods in the context of 2004 HPAI epidemics in Thailand Starting collaboration CIRAD/INRA/KU/DLD Disease spread model : Reconstitute the context of the first wave epidemics of HPAI in Thailand in 2004 in 4 provinces of Thailand Surveillance model : Reconstitute the Thai surveillance systems data collection Use Capture-Recapture method to analyse data Disease control model : Thailand legislation during this period (evolution) 17/20

19 Conclusion : A simulation tool to help surveillance system design To evaluate quantitatively new sampling strategies Present and discuss these new strategies using didactic visualization features A tool at prototype stage but modular and scalable 18/20

20 Acknowledgments Thanks to : The team working on the first case study (Mathilde Paul, Timothee Vergne and Flavie Goutard) AIT students from the Modelling, Simulation and Serious games course VLE development team 19/20

21 Bibliography [Bonté et al.(2009)bonté, Duboz, Quesnel, and Müller] B. Bonté, R. Duboz, G. Quesnel, and J.-P. Müller. Recursive simulation and experimental frame for multiscale simulation. In SCSC 09 : Summer Computer Simulation Conference, July 13th-16th B. P. Zeigler, T. G. Kim, and H. Praehofer. Theory of modeling and simulation : Integrating Discrete Event and Continuous Complex Dynamic Systems. Academic Press, /20