2014 Mobile Trends Report

Transcription

1 2014 Mobile Trends Report

2 1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING

3 1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING Trend Overview Smartphones have the shortest product lifecycle of any product in consumer electronics: Shelf life has declined by almost 50% since 2005 Mobile phones can last as few as 4 short months on a retailers shelf Average shelf-life for some mobile phones is currently 8-10 months Trend Driver OEMs are developing and cycling devices at a faster pace than ever with each generation adopting the latest carrier driven technologies, market-driven software developments and consumer driven features/enhancements. Additionally, in an attempt to capture niche driven market share, the development of multiple models within the same price point is also trending among OEMs. With the Apple and Samsung iconic devices representing the top 10 postpaid smartphone spots which account for 60+% of total market share, the ability for all others to move any sizeable volume of product in the market is finite and ultra-competitive. All of these conditions result in a glut of inventory in the market that creates a race to the bottom for OEMs and retailers to capture the attention of price sensitive consumers and ultimately driving the shrinking device lifecycle trend.

4 1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING Industry Perspective While the mobile phone is in the mature stage of the product lifecycle, its revenues and ASP continue to increase. This can be attributed in part to two main factors: 1 2 APPLE GOOGLE 0.7% MOTOROLA HTC OTHER LG Q Q Prepaid/Postpaid Smartphones Only SAMSUNG 5% 6% 7% 12% 26% 44% Market power of Apple and Samsung allows them to maintain high ASPs in an environment of low competition. As smartphones cannibalize other product lines (cameras, portable gaming, navigation, media players), they re able to command a greater share of the consumers wallet.

5 1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING CARRIER DRIVE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Tier 1 carriers are trying to break consumers habit of upgrading to a new phone every 18 months to 2 years. OEM MAINTAIN PROFITS There is a major impact for non-apple and Samsung manufacturers who are struggling to stay relevant. Without consumer demand, product pricing can tumble quickly. TREND IMPACT CONSUMER FEWER OPTIONS If retailers and operators continue to lose money on offering a larger product selection, they may reduce choice for consumers. RETAILER HIGH RISK The big question for retailers and carriers is how do you pick the next winner. While going with Apple and Samsung is the safe bet today, consumers want to see more choices on the shelf but that can be a costly endeavor if costs are high and product doesn t turn quickly.

6 1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING Brightstar Perspective The shrinking life cycle creates a variety of pressures on overall profitability for Tier 2 and Tier 3 OEMs due to supply chain inefficiencies, promotional inequities, and brand awareness. The ability to drive analysis and make decisions throughout the product lifecycle is critical. Brightstar has developed tools that use key indicators to identify product value at all points allowing operators and retailers to make decisions earlier to move through declining product faster, ultimately reducing profit erosion. Solutions like Virtual Inventory (VIP) or endless aisle combine technology with product selection and have proven to be very successful at retail. Brightstar s VIP solution enables national retailers to offer product without having to range or own inventory in store.

7 2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE

8 2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE Trend Overview No-contract is estimated to be 50% of market by the end of No-contract plans have seen 19% growth from No-contract plans now have a 37% share. NO-CONTRACT PLAN GROWTH Trend Drivers 1) Better no-contract phone offerings 2) Better no-contract plans 3) Carrier interest in getting out of the postpaid subsidization game IN MILLIONS

9 2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE Industry Perspective No-contract is driving the unit volume growth in mobile phones. With only a 37% category share in mobile, no contract is driving the entire 7% projected unit volume growth for mobile phones in UNIT VOLUME (YEAR OVER YEAR) POSTPAID PREPAID (ESTIMATED) In 2013, T-Mobile made a game-changing play with their Un-Carrier strategy of replacing service contracts with phone leasing contracts, leading the industry toward a tipping point.

10 OEM DEVICE VALUE Product that used to be contract only is now being offered without one. While traditionally no-contract or prepaid product has been devices later in the lifecycle, now consumers demand the latest and greatest regardless of plan. This could have a negative impact on device value and end up reducing the number of devices offered going forward. CARRIER COMPETITIVE PRICING Carriers are plentiful in this category so there are lots of plan options for consumers. Carriers need to offer competitive plans that are focused on pricing, not just services and they need to offer a range of phone options that appeal to this changing consumer. Tier 1 operators are now competing heavily with traditional no-contract carriers which may reduce options in the future. TREND IMPACT RETAILER CATEGORY MANAGEMENT The category and the consumer are changing and retail needs to adapt no-contract merchandising to these changes and maximize the potential of this new opportunity. Also, while the price for no-contract phones are increasing they are still not to the level of postpaid s which could affect the categories dollar growth as no-contract begins to overtake postpaid s share. CONSUMER 2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE DEVICE AFFORDABILITY This could change the game. Having popular phone models appear in prepaid faster is a great benefit to the consumer but that means that the price for these still popular phones will be high. Many consumers want to consider no-contract as an option but they will need financing to be able to afford the phone along with the more affordable plan.

11 3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST

12 3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST Trend Overview Mobile Buy-Back & Trade-In solutions have grown to the point where consumers are expecting it as part of the activation/upgrade process. Most devices are graded as C stock (61%) at time of trade-in, which typically nets a consumer $50. Trade-In is now a promotional strategy as well as a profit driver. TRADE IN YOUR SMARTPHONE OR TABLET GET UP TO A $300 IN STORE CREDIT Trend Drivers Certain devices are retaining their value much longer. Phones are not disposable anymore and people in secondary markets can own a popular phone, like the iphone, at a much reduced price when it is used / refurbished. Buy-Back & Trade-In programs create opportunities for consumers to replace and recycle old devices while helping to finance their next device. Another driver for the trend is insurance replacements, which is becoming a popular service for mobile phones. Using recycled devices to meet consumer claims is critical for service profitability.

13 3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST Industry Perspective While Buy-Back & Trade-In is a critical service offering, it has some concerning potential downsides. Some industry experts believe the influx of used and refurbished product could significantly drive down prices and profits, further shortening the product life-cycle, and slow down product innovation D S1 8 7 PRICE 6 P5 4 3 P2 1 0 SURPLUS S QUANTITY BOUGHT & SOLD As supply increases, a surplus of the good is created. In order to combat this, prices must drop to drive demand to clear the surplus, driving down profitability.

14 3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST CARRIER DRIVE LOYALTY Carriers are using trade-in programs to help retain customer loyalty, to drive promotional activities and to demonstrate corporate social responsibility by recycling or reusing devices. OEM INCREASE DEMAND OEMs will experience increased demand as the consumer upgrade cycle shortens however if the market becomes saturated with refurbished products and prices/profit fall, new production innovations could decline as well. TREND IMPACT CONSUMER SELF-SUBSIDY Consumers receive cash or credit in exchange for their used devices, which can offset the cost of their new phones. RETAILER MUST PLAY TO COMPETE Retailers must offer a trade-in program to compete with other retailers and the carriers.

15 4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON

16 4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON Trend Overview As more consumers move to a no-contract model, they are realizing the true unsubsidized cost of their phones. With average prices for top tier smartphones at $550, they are looking for financing options. OEMs are offering financing programs: HTC & Motorola launched programs in Retailers have programs: Amazon, Best Buy and Walmart all introduced financing options on select phones. Movement to No-Contract is impacting the necessity of this model. Industry Perspective Financing is going to become a key service offering with the other changes in the market. Savvy consumers will compare various financing offers against each other to make decisions about their carrier, phone, and store. There are opportunities to expand financing solutions beyond handsets to include supplemental accessories and services resulting in incremental growth in basket and profit.

17 4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON CARRIER TRANSFORMATIONAL Tier 1 carriers are following T-Mobile and offering consumers a device finance plan. Some believe that a focus on financing rather than providing a subsidy would be transformative for the industry. OEM PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATOR OEMs can use financing as a differentiator to try and gain additional market share in an hyper competitive space. TREND IMPACT CONSUMER FINANCING A MUST Financing will become an integral part of the purchase decision process. More expensive devices, more accessories to buy and less subsidization means consumers will need financing in order to afford the products they desire. RETAILER GRAB YOUR SHARE All channels will need to offer this as an option for consumers if they want to remain a viable part of the mobile retail market. Retailers can set themselves apart with unique product bundles and complementary financing solutions.

18 4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON Brightstar Perspective A variety of financial services products are beginning to penetrate the category offering attractive consumer solutions that focus on increased ASPs & basket lift to supplement the profit squeezed device sale and drive incremental margin growth. Financing will not be limited to handsets, but also can be used to drive increased accessory sales and services that will become critical to the profitability of the industry.