Table 1: Fortune 500 Companies Based in the Atlanta Metro Area, 2013 Reflecting the size of the student body, the Atlanta metro region contains one
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1 Macro Overview Atlanta The University Effect Atlanta is home to the largest number of post-secondary education institutions in the Southeast, spurring a growing supply of educated workers, particularly in the sciences. 399 Park Avenue 11 th Floor New York, NY October 2013 Atlanta, the ninth largest metropolitan area in the United States, is home to the most Fortune 500 companies after New York and Houston (Table 1). The City has experienced a burgeoning tech boom and was voted the second-most tech-friendly, 1 creating a dynamic mix of well-established businesses and start- According to the Atlanta Regional Council for Higher Education, the Atlanta region boasts 57 colleges and universities that collectively enroll more than 250,000 students each year, ups alike. In 2012, Georgia state taxes per capita were the second lowest in the country, 2 and Atlanta currently ranks 11 th among large metro areas (populations in excess of 1 million) for Best Places for Business and Careers according to Forbes. 3 making the area the sixth largest in terms of annual college graduates at the Bachelor's level or higher. Table 1: Fortune 500 Companies Based in the Atlanta Metro Area, 2013 Reflecting the size of the student body, the Atlanta metro region contains one Rank Company Rank Company of the youngest populations as 1 The Home Depot Inc. 8 First Data Corp. measured by median age, creating an 2 United Parcel Service Inc. 9 AGCO Corp. area with one of the largest fractions of 3 The Coca-Cola Co. 10 RockTenn working-age residents in the Southeast, second only to Raleigh. 4 Delta Air Lines Inc. 11 HD Supply 5 Southern Co. 12 Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. Moreover, many of Atlanta s students 6 Genuine Parts Co. 13 Newell Rubbermaid Inc. are pursuing science-related degrees. Of the nearly 1.2 million residents with 7 SunTrust Banks Inc. 14 NCR Corp. a Bachelor s degree as of 2011, nearly 200,000 (or 16.3%) held a degree in Source: headquarters.pdf?sfvrsn=0 computers, mathematics, statistics, engineering or physical science, almost a full point higher than the equivalent percentage across the United States. With two Georgia institutions ranking among the top 35 in terms of total R&D spending (Georgia Tech and Emory), Office employment has rebounded more quickly in Atlanta than has been the case nationally (Chart 1 on the following page); the City has more employees in the Financial Activities, Information and Professional/Business Service sectors than it did prior to the last recession (Chart 2 on the following page), a as well as a community college that distinction that has failed to materialize for the U.S. as a whole more than four ranks among the nation s top 50 best (Atlanta Technical College) the Atlanta years after the official end of the recession. region is likely to continue providing high-quality talent for the area s many technology companies in the years to come. 1 Source: 2 Source: 3 Source: When metro areas of all sizes are considered, Atlanta ranks 22 nd. 1
2 Chart 1: Office Employment (Indexed to July 2007 = 100, Pre-Recession U.S. Peak) Chart 2: Office Employment by Sector, Atlanta Metro Area (000s, SA) 2
3 Diversified job base As the home of the state s capital, it is not surprising to find a large percentage of government workers in Atlanta, however the local economy is quite diverse (Chart 3), evidenced in the mix of the area s top employers (Tables 2 and 3). Chart 3: Distribution of Atlanta Region Employment by Sector, August 2013 Table 2: Metro Atlanta s Largest Private Sector Employers Table 3: City of Atlanta Principal Employers Rank Company Employment Rank Company Employment 1 Delta Air Lines 27,000 1 Allied Barton Security 4,205 2 Wal-Mart Stores 26,000 2 International Business 3,769 Machines 3 Emory 23,872 3 The Coca-Cola Company 3,608 University/Healthcare 4 AT&T 18,000 4 Turner Broadcasting System 2,000 5 Publix Supermarkets 17,765 5 Cable News Network 1,889 6 Coca-Cola Co. 9,000* 6 Air Service Corporation 1,665 7 Southern Company 8,777 7 Accenture 1,555 (and subsidiaries) 8 WellStar Health System 8,583 8 AT&T Services 1,247 9 United Parcel Service 8,369 9 Georgia-Pacific 1, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics 7, Tenet Health System 1,164 Source: Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce Source: City of Atlanta Fiscal Year 2013 Adopted Budget *Includes all employees within Georgia. 3
4 Even as the local economy has recovered all of the jobs lost in the wake of the recession that started in December 2007, the gains have come via private sector growth; government sector jobs have fallen by approximately 8.0% over the last 4 ½ years (Chart 4). Chart 4: Government and Private Sector Payrolls, Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area One source of growth in the professional and business services area has been the emergence of technology firms. As shown in Table 4, the Atlanta metro region has one of the largest counts of computer systems design and related services firms (firms in computer facilities management services and custom computer programming, for example), with roughly 1/3 more employees in this sector than San Francisco, and an employee count almost comparable to that of the Los Angeles metro region. Table 4: Computer Systems Design and Related Services Establishment and Employment Count Metropolitan Statistical Area / County Establishment Count, March 2013 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 13,007* 161,388* New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 13, ,778 Manhattan 3,143 48,298 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 4,086 71,785 San Francisco 1,322 31,281 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,395 58,044 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 5,447 46,263 Average Employment, Q Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 5,644 42,089 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Employment data are not available for Q1 2013; Q data shown instead. The establishment count in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area rose from 13,007 in Q to 13,081 in Q1 2013, however. 4
5 Not surprisingly, the number of accelerators and incubators in Atlanta has increased (Map 1), reflecting public and private interest in furthering Atlanta s technology sector, particularly given the large number of engineering graduates in the area. The redevelopment of Ponce City Market the 1.1 million square foot former home to Sears, Roebuck is likely to see a number of technology tenants occupy the 450,000 square feet that will be dedicated to office use, particularly after decisions by software firm Cardlytics and electronic health record firm athenahealth to lease approximately 75,000 square feet each. Further enhancing the appeal of the Ponce City Market is its designation as a Georgia Opportunity Zone, (Map 2), which allows companies that locate in such areas to receive a $3,500 income tax credit for each new job created (in excess of two employees). Map 1: Atlanta Incubators/Accelerators Map 2: Georgia Opportunity Zones in Atlanta Low and stable unemployment rate Despite the rebound in the area s payroll count, the current unemployment rate for the Atlanta MSA (8.4%), like the unemployment rate for the state as a whole (8.7%) has failed to decrease as rapidly as that of the U.S. (7.2%) especially notable given Atlanta s substantially lower unemployment rate in the early part of the last decade (Chart 5 on the following page). One reason behind Atlanta s unemployment rate stickiness is the fact that the fraction of the eligible (aged 16+) population participating in the labor force either as an employee or as an active jobseeker has remained relatively unchanged over the past three years; while the labor force participation rate in the U.S. has declined by 1.4 percentage points since January 2010 nationally, the decline in the Atlanta metro region has been roughly one-quarter of a percentage point. Atlanta has a relatively high percentage of working-age residents, especially in comparison to its regional neighbors (Chart 6 on the following page); moreover, Atlanta has experienced positive net migration, boosting the growth of its labor force, on both a domestic and international basis (Table 5 on the following page). 5
6 Chart 5: Unemployment Rate by Region (%, SA) Chart 6: Fraction of Total Population that is Working-Age (25-64) by Metropolitan Statistical Area, December 2012 Table 5: Population and Labor Force Growth, Atlanta Metropolitan Area Year Natural* Population Growth Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Total Population Change** Labor Force Change April 1,2010-June 30, ,370 12,833 21,477 87,946 38,071 July 1, 2011-July 1, ,314 24,207 18,536 83,153 39,089 Source: U.S. Census *Change due to birth and death. **Total population change may not sum to components, as the sum includes a residual that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component. 6
7 Robust growth among Southern cities Atlanta is one of few major cities in the South to have more than regained all the jobs lost during the recession. As shown in Chart 7, the current level of office-using employment in places such as Miami and Tampa has failed to exceed the pre-recession peak, making Atlanta one of the larger cities to have experienced such a vigorous rebound. Atlanta possesses a highly-educated workforce (Table 6), one reason the recovery in employment has been so sound. Chart 7: Office-Using Employment for Major Southeastern Metropolitan Statistical Areas Table 6: Median Age and Educational Attainment by Major Southeastern Metro Area Metro Area Median Age Bachelor's Degree or Higher* Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA % 12.6% Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC % 10.4% Durham-Chapel Hill, NC % 21.1% Greensboro-High Point, NC % 8.2% Jacksonville, FL % 8.7% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL % 10.7% Raleigh-Cary, NC % 14.1% Richmond, VA % 12.2% Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL % 9.4% U.S. Average % 10.9% Source: 2012 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates *Based on population aged 25+. Master's Degree or Professional School Degree or Higher* 7
8 Infrastructure improvements Atlanta is a major logistics hub, and is among the top three distribution cities in the U.S., with 40% of North American manufacturing and distribution centers located within 500 miles of the city. 4 Atlanta is also home to the world s mosttraveled airport the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. The 1.2 million square foot Maynard H. Jackson International Terminal (MHJIT), which opened in the spring of 2012, brought several enhancements to the airport, including the addition of 40 international gates that can now connect travelers from the U.S. to nearly 80 destinations in more than 50 countries. While the City was adversely affected by a double-dip decline in property values (Chart 8), which negatively affected property tax revenue receipts (Chart 9), Atlanta has continued its plan for infrastructure improvements. One such plan includes an East-West electric streetcar, covering 2.6 track miles with 12 stops, that aims to be operational by Q (Map 3 on the following page). Chart 8: S&P/Case-Shiller Single Family Home Price Index: YoY % Change in Index (3-Month Moving Average) Chart 9: Property Tax Levies by Fiscal Year (ending June 30th) 4 Source: 8
9 Another project, currently in the planning stages, is the Georgia Multimodal Passenger Terminal (MMPT), Map 3: Atlanta Streetcar Project Map which will bring together various bus and rail transit services in central downtown Atlanta. The project, construction of which could begin as early as Q4 2014, will be delivered through a public-private partnership that leverages private sector funds and federal grants. The MMPT will be located in The Gulch in close proximity to the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority s (MARTA) Five Points Station although the exact location has not yet been determined. The hope is that establishment of the MMPT will catalyze mixed-use development, creating a hub for existing and proposed transportation Source: networks across the state, including intercity and commuter rail and buses. A third project, also in the planning stages, is the exploration of alternatives for providing high-capacity transit along GA 400 in north Fulton County that would improve transit linkages and coverage to communities within this corridor. Options include the use of heavy rail, light rail or bus rapid transit within existing right-of-way for 11.9 miles from the North Springs MARTA station in Dunwoody (Map 4) north to Windward Parkway in Alpharetta. Map 4: MARTA Extension Project 9
10 Map 5: Atlanta BeltLine Project Overview Progress continues, as well, on the Atlanta BeltLine (Map 5), among the largest, most wide-ranging urban redevelopment and mobility projects currently underway in the country. The project will remediate 1,100 acres of brownfields and provide a network of public parks, multi-use trails and transit by reusing 22-miles of historic railroad corridors circling downtown. More than a fifth of the City s population lives within the BeltLine planning area, but the benefit of improved transit and the connection of 45 of Atlanta s neighborhoods to one another is expected to be felt more widely throughout the entire City. That the City has made improvement to its infrastructure a priority suggests favorable prospects for Atlanta going forward. A rebound in employment is likely to continue, playing to the area s educated population, favorable migration trends and growing development in technology. RESEARCH CONTACT Heidi Learner Chief Economist hlearner@studley.com Studley is the leading global commercial real estate services firm specializing in tenant representation. Founded in 1954, Studley pioneered the conflict-free business model of representing only tenants in their commercial real estate transactions. Today, with 60 offices worldwide, Studley provides strategic real estate solutions to top-tier corporations, not-for-profit organizations and law firms. For more information, please visit 10
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