The Young and Restless in Detroit

Transcription

1 The Young and Restless in Detroit Summary The Young and Restless 25 to 34 year olds with a bachelor s degree or higher level of education, are economically important and are fueling the growth of many of the nation s metropolitan areas. They are increasingly drawn to close-in urban neighborhoods, and their migration is fueling economic growth and urban revitalization. This report charts Detroit s record in attracting and retaining these talented young adults. The young and restless are under-represented in Metro Detroit compared to the average of the nation s largest metropolitan areas. This group makes up 3.8 percent of Detroit s population, compared to about 5.0 percent in the typical large metro. Detroit has seen a moderate decrease in the number of well-educated young adults since 2000 a loss of about 10.5 percent compared to an average increase of 27 percent in the typical large metro area. Detroit s college-educated 25 to 34 year olds are about 13 percent less likely to live in close-in-urban neighborhoods than other metro Detroit residents. This contrasts with the typical large metropolitan area, where well-educated young adults are more than twice as likely as other residents to live in these close-in neighborhoods. Detroit has experienced a small, but statistically marginal decline in the number of well-educated young adults living in close-in urban neighborhoods since 2000, in contrast to the general pattern of welleducated young adults increasingly moving to close-in urban neighborhoods. Young and Restless as a Share of Total Metro Population One key indicator of the economic role of well-educated young adults is their share of the metropolitan population. Table 1 shows the fraction of the total metropolitan population that is between 25 and 34 years of age and has completed at least a fouryear college degree. In the typical large metropolitan area in 2012, 25 to 34 year olds with a four-year degree made up about 1 in 20 metro residents. In Detroit, well-educated young adults make up a smaller share of the metro population than in the typical large metro area: 3.8 percent versus 5.0 percent. Detroit would rank in the bottom quarter of large metro areas in its share of young

2 and restless. (The federally designated Detroit Metropolitan area consists of Summit and Portage counties.) Detroit s performance is illustrated in Figure 1, below. Table 1: 25 to 34 Year olds with a 4-year degree as a percentage of metro population Detroit Median, Top 51 Detroit Rank % 4.2% 33rd % 5.0% 45th Figure 1. Percent of the Population aged 25 to 34 years old with a four-year degree, 2012 Detroit ( ) Compared to Largest U.S. Metro Areas How to read this box-dot chart: Each dot represents one of the 51 largest U.S. Metro areas. The box shows lines for the median (middle line) and for the 75 th percentile (top of box) and 25 th percentile (bottom of box). Whiskers correspond to the 90 th and 10 th percentile values. Values for Detroit relative to these large metros are shown as an orange dot. Growth in the Number of Young and Restless The larger size of the millennial generation now moving in to the 25 to 34 year old age group, coupled with increasing college attainment rates has led over the past decade to a national increase in the number of year olds with a four-year degree. These well-educated young adults are increasingly concentrated in large The Young and Restless in Detroit November

3 metropolitan areas. Over the past decade, 50 of the 51 largest metropolitan areas have recorded an increase in 25 to 34 year olds with a four-year degree. Detroit is the only metro out of the nation s most populous 51 that had a decrease in the number of well-educated young adults- a decrease of 10.5 percent. This is far less than the 27 percent increase in the median large metropolitan area in the past decade. Detroit s performance is last (51 st ) when ranked against the 51 largest metropolitan areas on this measure. Table 2: Growth in Year Olds with a Four Year Degree, Detroit Median, Top 51 Detroit Rank , ,104 Pct. Change -10.5% 27.20% 51st Figure 2. Change in 25 to 34 year old metropolitan population with a four-year degree, 2000 to 2012 Detroit ( ) Compared to Largest U.S. Metro Areas How to read this box-dot chart: Each dot represents one of the 51 largest U.S. Metro areas. The box shows lines for the median (middle line) and for the 75 th percentile (top of box) and 25 th percentile The Young and Restless in Detroit November

4 (bottom of box). Whiskers correspond to the 90 th and 10 th percentile values. Values for Detroit relative to these large metros are shown as an orange dot. The Young and Restless in Close-In Neighborhoods Nationally, young adults are much more likely than other Americans to live in closein neighborhoods, and their movement to urban centers is fueling growth and revitalization in many cities. Our study defines close-in urban neighborhoods as those census tracts located within 3 miles of the center of the region s central business district. This map shows extent of Detroit s close-in neighborhoods. The Young and Restless in Detroit November

5 In Detroit, about 3,150 college-educated young adults live in the region s close-in neighborhoods, a decline of about 5.9 percent since Detroit s performance over the past decade is worse than all but one of the 51 largest U.S. metro areas. Estimates for 2010 are based on a pooled sample of surveys taken from 2008 through 2012 and may not reflect recent trends in population in the urban core. Given the small sample size of the American Community Survey and the small difference involved here, the change is not likely to be statistically significant. Table 3: Young and Restless in Detroit s Close-in Urban Neighborhoods Number Detroit Rank , ,153 Pct. Change -5.9% 50th The Young and Restless in Detroit November

6 Figure 3: Change in Close-in Population Aged 25 to 34 with a 4-year degree, 2000 to 2010 Detroit ( ) Compared to Largest U.S. Metro Areas How to read this box-dot chart: Each dot represents one of the 51 largest U.S. Metro areas. The box shows lines for the median (middle line) and for the r the 75 th percentile (top of box) 25 th percentile (bottom of box). Whiskers correspond to the 90 th and 10 th percentile values. Values for Detroit relative to these large metros are shown as an orange dot. Relative Preference for Close-In Urban Neighborhoods Our national analysis indicates a pervasive trend of growing relative preference by well-educated young adults for close-in neighborhoods in the nation s largest metropolitan areas. We calculate relative preference by comparing the share of well-educated young adults living in close-in neighborhoods (within 3 miles of the center of the central business district), with the share of the total population living in these same neighborhoods. A ratio of greater than one indicates that young adults are more likely to live in these close-in neighborhoods. Detroit has a relative preference indicator of less than one, indicating that young adults are less likely than the aggregate of all metro area residents to live in close-in urban neighborhoods. In Detroit, the relative preference for close-in neighborhoods The Young and Restless in Detroit November

7 has declined since 2000; today, well-educated young adults in metro areas are about 13% less likely than the typical metro area resident to live in these close-in urban neighborhoods. Table 4: Relative Preference for Living in Close-In Neighborhoods Detroit % % Figure 4: Relative Preference for Close-in Urban Neighborhoods, 25 to 34 Year-olds with a fouryear degree compared to all metro residents, 2010 Detroit ( )Compared to Largest U.S. Metro Areas How to read this box-dot chart: Each dot represents one of the 51 largest U.S. Metro areas. The box shows lines for the median (middle line) and for the r the 75 th percentile (top of box) 25 th percentile (bottom of box). Whiskers correspond to the 90 th and 10 th percentile values. Values for Detroit relative to these large metros are shown as an orange dot. The data for this report are drawn from Census 2000, and the annual American Community Survey conducted from 2008 through 2012, and are reported for the entire metropolitan area, and also for close-in urban neighborhoods. Data for closein neighborhoods are computed using Geographic Information System (GIS) The Young and Restless in Detroit November

8 software to compute the fraction of the population living within 3 miles of the center of the region s central business district. Detail of Detroit s Close-in Neighborhoods: 3-Mile Radius The Young and Restless in Detroit November