INVESTMENT BANKING AND CAPITAL MARKETS THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP

Transcription

1 INVESTMENT BANKING AND CAPITAL MARKETS Market Report Fourth Quarter 24 Edition New York, Frankfurt March 1, 25 THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page Global Investment Banking Outlook 2 Investment Banking Results 4 th Quarter 24 1 Market Review Corporate Finance and Advisory 16 Fixed-Income Trading 23 Equity Trading 27 Data Definitions 32-1-

3 Global Investment-Banking Outlook -2-

4 GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUES GREW BY 14 PERCENT TO $184 BILLION GLOBALLY IN 24 Investment banking revenues grew by 14 percent from 23 to $184 billion globally All three major businesses, corporate finance, equities and fixed-income trading, grew significantly from 23 Fixed-income trading benefited from a steep yield curve in the first half of 24 Equities trading was supported by the growing hedge fund industry Pent-up demand in equities underwriting and several mega acquisitions led to a significant increase of corporate finance and advisory revenues Investments into growth areas such as commodities trading and prime brokerage led to a slight decline in profitability Average profit margins of the leading ten banks decreased slightly from 32. percent to 3.5 percent Bear Stearns and Citibank were among the most profitable investment banks in 24 Citibank achieved pre-tax profit margins of over 4 percent, while Bear Stearns generated 37 percent in pre-tax profits -3-

5 GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED $21 BILLION BY 27 Investment banking industry is expected to grow at a measured rate of five percent annually until 27 Commoditization in equities and a slow down in fixed income will compress profit margins slightly M&A Advisory is expected to grow faster than its long-term growth rate Industry consolidation and friendly market conditions will spur advisory and equities underwriting businesses Strong Euro may prompt some U.S. acquisitions by European companies Hedge funds and equities derivatives will be key growth drivers of equities business in the next two years while proprietary trading revenues are expected to stay stable Increasing interest rates in the U.S. are leading to slower growth in fixed income. However, overall global fixed income revenues will remain robust Commodities and foreign exchange trading continue to grow European interest rates are unlikely to increase soon -4-

6 GLOBAL INDUSTRY REVENUES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW EXCEED $21 BILLION BY 27 $B 25 Global Investment Banking Revenues 213 $B 125 Global Investment Banking Profits Global Fixed Income Equities Note: CF&A stands for corporate finance and advisory Sources: Company financial reports; BCG analysis and forecasts CF&A -5-

7 INVESTMENT-BANKING RESULTS OF LEADING PLAYERS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN vs. 23 Pre-tax profit margin (%) 5% Citi 4% BS LB ML JPMC (1) GS 23 Ø: 32.% Ø 1.6% 3% MS DB UBS 24 Ø: 3.5% 2% 1% CSFB % Ø +12.9% Revenues ($B) (1) JPMC only, not including Banc One Note: Ø calculated on a revenue-weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading Sources: Company reports, BCG analysis -6-

8 REVENUES IN CORPORATE FINANCE AND ADVISORY ARE PROJECTED TO GROW TO $5 BILLION BY 27 Investment Banking Division Revenues Investment Banking Division Regional Revenue Split 24 $B DCM ECM M&A % 25% 5% 75% 1% M&A ECM (1) DCM (2) Americas Europe Asia (1) Equity Capital Markets (2) Debt Capital Markets Sources: Company financial reports; Thomson SDC; Dealogic; BCG analysis and forecasts -7-

9 GLOBAL EQUITIES REVENUES EXPECTED TO REACH $62 BILLION BY 27 Program Trading and Global Equity Finance Show Strongest Growth Revenue Pools By Products Equities Trading Regional Revenue Split 24 $B 8 62 Equity Derivatives Global Equity Finance Program Cash % 25% 5% 75% 1% Cash Program GEF (1) Derivatives Arb/Prop Americas Europe Asia (1) Global Equity Finance Includes prime brokerage (~8%) Sources: Company financial reports; BCG analysis and forecasts -8-

10 CREDIT AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRODUCTS DRIVE FUTURE GROWTH IN FIXED INCOME Revenues from Interest Rate Businesses Are Expected to Contract Revenues ($B) (1) Includes principal finance and real estate investments Sources: Company financial reports; BCG analysis and forecasts Other (1) MBS/ABS Credit Deriv. Credit Markets Commodities Foreign Exchange Interest Rates Interest Rate Derivatives -9-

11 Investment Banking Results 4 th Quarter 24-1-

12 INVESTMENT-BANKING PROFITS IMPROVED IN THE FOURTH QUARTER 24 Strong Growth in Corporate Finance & Advisory BCG performance index increased by almost 2 points to 95.7 in 4 th quarter 24 Strong revenue growth in sales and trading as well as corporate finance and advisory Trading revenues of ten leading banks increased by nine percent on average from 3 rd quarter Corporate finance and advisory businesses generated 19 percent more revenues than in the previous period Average profitability of the banks improved in fourth quarter 24 Profit margins increased by four percent to 3.7 percent in 4 th quarter 24 Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley recorded big profit margin improvements Profit margins at both banks increased by 1 and 14 percent respectively, partially caused by offsetting compensation expense which was accrued in the previous three quarters Source: Company reports, BCG analysis -11-

13 BCG PERFORMANCE INDEX ENDED 24 ON THE UPSWING Index BCG Investment Banking Performance Index Q1/1 Q2/1 Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3 Q1/4 Q2/4 Q3/4 Q4/4 Note: The BCG IB performance index is calculated based on aggregate profits of 1 leading banks Source: Company reports, BCG analysis -12-

14 STRONG RECOVERY OF INVESTMENT-BANKING BUSINESSES IN FOURTH QUARTER 24 $B 8 Equity Origination $B 4 M&A Advisory (1) Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 $B 1,2 U.S. Bond Trading (2) $Tr 1 Equity Trading 1, Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Asia U.S. Europe Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 (1) Announced transactions (2) Daily average trading volumes for treasuries, agencies, asset-/mortgage-backed securities (ABS/MBS), and corporate bonds Sources: Dealogic; SDC; FIBV; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; BCG analysis -13-

15 REVENUES AND PROFIT MARGINS IMPROVED IN 4 TH QUARTER 24 4Q4 vs. 3Q4 Pre-tax profit margin (%) 5% 4% BS Citi ML Q4/4 Ø: 3.7% Ø+3.9% 3% LB JPMC (1) MS UBS GS Q3/4 Ø: 26.8% 2% 1% DB CSFB Q4/4 Q3/4 % Ø +12.6% Revenues ($B) (1) JPMC only, not including Banc One Note: Ø calculated on a revenue-weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading Source: Company reports; BCG analysis -14-

16 TRADING AND INVESTMENT BANKING GREW STRONGLY IN 4 TH QUARTER 24 Trading revenue as percentage of total revenues 4Q4 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% BS Trading Revenues 4Q4 vs. 3Q4 CSFB LB JPMC ML MS UBS DB Citi GS CF&A revenue as percentage of total revenues 4Q4 Ø: 74.% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% Corporate Finance/ Advisory Revenues 4Q4 vs. 3Q4 BS UBS LB ML MS CSFB DB GS JPMC Citi Ø: 27.6% 55% 1% Revenues 4Q4 Revenues Ø+9.4% ($B) 3Q4 Ø % ($B) Note: Trading and corporate finance revenues do not total 1% because of other revenue Sources: Company reports; BCG analysis -15-

17 Market Review Corporate Finance and Advisory -16-

18 UNDERWRITING AND ADVISORY DEAL VOLUMES LEAPED IN FOURTH QUARTER 24 Overall global M&A announcements in 24 grew by 55 percent from 23 Several big merger announcements - such as the merger of the British and the Dutch parents of Shell and the planned acquisition of Nextel by Sprint - drove volumes up by 75 percent in the 4 th quarter Stronger stock markets in 24 helped to increase global equities underwriting by 58 percent from 23 Pent-up demand from the previous years was main growth driver Improving stock market led to strong growth in Europe. European equities underwriting grew by 6 percent from 23 While overall global bond underwriting volumes remained robust, corporate bond issuance decreased in 24 Increasing interest rates led to a slow down of corporate refinancing volumes in the U.S. -17-

19 M&A and Equity Origination STRONG REVIVAL OF THE EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS AND ADVISORY BUSINESS $B 16 Equity Capital Markets $B 8 Announced M&A Deals Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis Global Asia U.S. Europe Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4-18-

20 M&A and Equity Origination GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGAN STANLEY REMAINED LEADERS IN GLOBAL M&A U.S. M&A European M&A Relative market position 24 1% 8% Gained share LB GS Relative market position 24 1% 8% Gained share ML MS Rothschild GS 6% 4% 2% % JPMC BoA DB Citi UBS SG Wachovia HSBC MS ML BNP Lazard CSFB BS Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative market position 23 6% 4% 2% % BNP DKW Cazenove DB ABN CSFB HSBC SG LB Calyon ING Greenhill UBS JPMC Citi Lazard Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative market position 23 Notes: Based on date effective relative to market leader JPMC volumes include Bank One Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis -19-

21 M&A and Equity Origination MORGAN STANLEY WON SIGNIFICANT SHARE IN EQUITIES U.S. Equity Capital Markets European Equity Capital Markets Relative market position 24 1% 8% 6% 4% Gained share JPMC UBS ML Citi LB CSFB MS GS Relative market position 24 1% 8% 6% 4% Gained share LB SG BNP ML UBS ABN CSFB MS JPMC Citi GS DB 2% % DB BS Wachovia SG BoA Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 23 2% % DKW Calyon Cazenove HSBC ING Lazard Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 23 Notes: Share relative to market leader JPMC volumes include Bank One Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis -2-

22 GLOBAL BOND ORIGINATION REMAINED ROBUST Fixed-Income Origination $B 1,5 All Bonds 1322 $B 3 Corporate Bonds 1,25 1, Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/ Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Note: Corporate bonds for industrial issuers only Source: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis Global Asia U.S. Europe -21-

23 Fixed-Income Origination UBS GAINED LEADERSHIP IN EUROPEAN FIXED INCOME ORIGINATION U.S. Bond Underwriting European Bonds Underwriting Relative market position 24 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gained share Barclays Wachovia HSBC Nomura ABN BNP DB ML BoA BS UBS CSFB GS MS LB JPMC Citi Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative market position 24 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gained share Coba ING Calyon BoA BS GS Nomura SG LB UBS HSBC CSFB Barclays Citi ABN JPMC BNP MS DKW ML DB Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative market position 23 Relative market position 23 Notes: Relative to market leader JPMC volumes include Bank One Source: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis -22-

24 Market Review: Fixed-Income Trading -23-

25 Fixed-Income Trading BANKS FIXED-INCOME SALES & TRADING FINISHED THE YEAR STRONGLY 24 was a record year in fixed income trading A very strong first quarter 24 led to an overall year-on-year increase in fixed income Global fixed income trading revenues of the leading banks increased by 6 percent from last year As the U.S. yield curve continues to flatten, fixed income revenue growth is most likely to slow down Spread between 2-year and 1-year treasuries currently less than 1 basis points Measured interest rate increases are likely to continue in 25 However, a dramatic fixed income revenue decline seems unlikely European interest rates are expected to remain low Growth in commodities and foreign exchange trading will support overall trading revenues -24-

26 Fixed-Income Trading YIELD CURVE FLATTENED 1-year/2-year U.S. Treasury Yield Spread Basis points Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Dec-99 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Source: Bloomberg -25-

27 Fixed-Income Trading FIXED-INCOME REVENUES FINISHED THE YEAR STRONGLY Fourth Quarter Revenues Increased U.S. Daily Average Bond-Trading Volumes Fixed-Income Trading Revenues by Quarter $B 1, Index Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Note: Daily average trading volumes with inter/dealer brokers and others; aggregated trading revenues for 1 leading investment banks surveyed Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; BCG analysis Total Corp. Bonds MBS/ABS Treasury/ Agencies Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4-26-

28 Market Review Equity Trading -27-

29 DECLINING TRADING VOLUMES AND LOW VOLATILITY AFFECTED EQUITIES TRADING BUSINESS Equity Trading Rising stock prices led to improved trading volumes in the 4 th quarter 24 S&P 5 stock index increased by nine percent, while the FTSE E3 and the Nikkei were up six percent in the last quarter 24 As a result, global stock exchange trading increased by almost two trillion U.S. Dollars to $1.9 trillion in the 4 th quarter 24 was a strong year in equities trading. For the first time since 2, equities trading revenues overall improved. Several trends continue to shape the equities trading business: Hedge fund growth: Hedge fund asset growth creates prime brokerage business opportunities for several players. But hedge funds also contributed significantly to overall cash revenues Low market volatility: The VIX market volatility index fell in 24 and is now more than 5 percent below its year end level 22 Increase in program trading continues to depress commissions: Program trading volumes at the New York Stock Exchange increased by 3 percent from 23 to

30 Equity Trading EQUITIES MARKET VOLATILITY REACHED LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2 Market Volatility Index (VIX) Percentage change 6 Index % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% % 2-4% -27% 1-6% -8% -54% J Q1/1 A J Q3/1 O J Q1/2 A J OQ3/2 J AQ1/3 J O Q3/3 J A Q1/4 J O Q3/4 J -1% Q4/4 vs. 3Q4 24 vs vs. 22 Source: Bloomberg -29-

31 STOCK PRICES CONTINUED TO RISE IN 4 TH QUARTER Equity Trading Development of Main Equity Indices Percentage change 12 Index 5% 1 S&P 5 3% 8 Nikkei 225 FTSE E3 1% 6% 9% 6% 9% 9% 8% 6-1% 4 2-3% J Q1/1 A J Q3/1 O J Q1/2 A J Q3/2 O J Q1/3 A J Q3/3 O J Q1/4 A J Q3/4 O J -5% Change 4Q/4 vs. 3Q/4 Change 24 vs. 23 Nikkei 225 S&P 5 (1) Indexed Source: Thomson Financial Datastream FTSE E3-3-

32 EQUITY TRADING VOLUMES AND REVENUES IMPROVED Equity Trading 14 $Tr , 1, 5,1 4,9 Global Exchange Trading Volumes ,8,8 4,4 4,3 6.8,8 3, , , ,6 4,5 4,6 4, ,9 5, ,8 4, , ,4 8 4,7 5,7 % Equity Trading Revenue by Quarter (Indexed) ,4 2,7 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,5 2,6 2,8 3,6 3,4 3, 3,6 2 Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Global Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Asia U.S. Europe Note: Single counted, includes investment funds traded at exchanges; aggregated trading revenues for 1 leading investment banks surveyed Sources: FIBV; BCG analysis -31-

33 Data Definitions -32-

34 DATA DEFINITION OVERVIEW Regional deal allocation is based on issuer s country (parent issuer s country, where available). M&A deals are allocated by target nation Dealogic was used for European capital market data, Thomson SDC for U.S. and Asian data Relative market shares are based on bookrunner league tables Equity origination data include common stock IPOs and secondary issues only Bond origination data contain all convertible and nonconvertible bonds, including ABS, MBS, municipals, agency, and corporate bonds Corporate bonds are limited to industrials and utilities excluding financial services issuers Equity trading data reflect institutional block trades as advertised in AutEx BlockDATA The second quarter ended on November 3, 24, for Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley; all others ended on December 31,