# REAL OPTIONS VALUATION, INC.

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1 User Manual JJohnatthan Mun,, Ph..D..,, MBA,, MS,, BS,, CRM,, FRM,, CFC,, MIIFC Reall Opttiions Valluattiion,, IInc..

3 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION TO RISK SIMULATOR Welcome to Risk Simulator Installation Requirements and Procedures Licensing What s New in Version General Capabilities Simulation Module Forecasting Module Optimization Module Analytical Tools Module Statistics and BizStats Module MONTE CARLO RISK SIMULATION What Is Monte Carlo Simulation? Getting Started with Risk Simulator A High-Level Overview of the Software Running a Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Chart Tabs Using Forecast Charts and Confidence Intervals Correlations and Precision Control The Basics of Correlations Applying Correlations in Risk Simulator The Effects of Correlations in Monte Carlo Simulation... 27

4 2.3.4 Precision and Error Control Understanding the Forecast Statistics Understanding Probability Distributions for Monte Carlo Simulation Discrete Distributions Continuous Distributions FORECASTING Different Types of Forecasting Techniques Running the Forecasting Tool in Risk Simulator Time-Series Analysis Multivariate Regression Stochastic Forecasting Nonlinear Extrapolation Box-Jenkins ARIMA Advanced Time-Series AUTO-ARIMA (Box-Jenkins ARIMA Advanced Time-Series) Basic Econometrics J-S Curve Forecasts GARCH Volatility Forecasts Markov Chains Limited Dependent Variables: Logit, Probit, Tobit (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) Spline (Cubic Spline Interpolation and Extrapolation) OPTIMIZATION Optimization Methodologies Optimization with Continuous Decision Variables Optimization with Discrete Integer Variables

5 4.4 Efficient Frontier and Advanced Optimization Settings Stochastic Optimization RISK SIMULATOR ANALYTICAL TOOLS Tornado and Sensitivity Tools in Simulation Sensitivity Analysis Distributional Fitting: Single Variable and Multiple Variables Bootstrap Simulation Hypothesis Testing Data Extraction and Saving Simulation Results Create Report Regression and Forecasting Diagnostic Tool Statistical Analysis Tool Distributional Analysis Tool Scenario Analysis Tool Segmentation Clustering Tool RISK SIMULATOR 2011/2012 NEW TOOLS Random Number Generation, Monte Carlo vs. Latin Hypercube, and Correlation Copulas Deseasonalizing and Detrending Data Principal Component Analysis Structural Break Analysis Trendline Forecasts Model Checking Tool Percentile Distributional Fitting Tool Distribution Charts and Tables: Probability Distribution Tool

6 5.22 ROV BizStats Neural Network and Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasting Methodologies Optimizer Goal Seek Single Variable Optimizer Genetic Algorithm Optimization ROV Decision Tree Module Decision Tree Simulation Modeling Bayes Analysis Expected Value of Perfect Information, MINIMAX and MAXIMIN Analysis, Risk Profiles, and Value of Imperfect Information Sensitivity Scenario Tables Utility Function Generation Helpful Tips and Techniques TIPS: Assumptions (Set Input Assumption User Interface) TIPS: Copy and Paste TIPS: Correlations TIPS: Data Diagnostics and Statistical Analysis TIPS: Distributional Analysis, Charts and Probability Tables TIPS: Efficient Frontier TIPS: Forecast Cells TIPS: Forecast Charts TIPS: Forecasting

7 TIPS: Forecasting: ARIMA TIPS: Forecasting: Basic Econometrics TIPS: Forecasting: Logit, Probit, and Tobit TIPS: Forecasting: Stochastic Processes TIPS: Forecasting: Trendlines TIPS: Function Calls TIPS: Getting Started Exercises and Getting Started Videos TIPS: Hardware ID TIPS: Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) vs. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) TIPS: Online Resources TIPS: Optimization TIPS: Profiles TIPS: Right-Click Shortcut and Other Shortcut Keys TIPS: Save TIPS: Sampling and Simulation Techniques TIPS: Software Development Kit (SDK) and DLL Libraries TIPS: Starting Risk Simulator with Excel TIPS: Super Speed Simulation TIPS: Tornado Analysis TIPS: Troubleshooter INDEX

8 1 1. INTRODUCTION TO RISK SIMULATOR 1.1 Welcome to Risk Simulator T he Risk Simulator is a Monte Carlo simulation, Forecasting, and Optimization software. The software is written in Microsoft.NET C# and functions together with Excel as an add-in. This software is also compatible and often used with the Real Options Super Lattice Solver (SLS) software and Employee Stock Options Valuation Toolkit (ESOV) software, also developed by Real Options Valuation, Inc. Note that although we attempt to be thorough in this user manual, the manual is absolutely not a substitute for the Training DVD, live training courses, and books written by the software s creator (e.g., Dr. Johnathan Mun s Real Options Analysis, 2nd Edition, Wiley Finance, 2005; Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, and Optimization, 2nd Edition, Wiley Finance, 2010; and Valuing Employee Stock Options (2004 FAS 123R), Wiley Finance, 2004). Please visit our website at for more information about these items. The Risk Simulator software has the following modules: Monte Carlo Simulation (runs parametric and nonparametric simulation of 42 probability distributions with different simulation profiles, truncated and correlated simulations, customizable distributions, precision and error-controlled simulations, and many other algorithms) Forecasting (runs Box-Jenkins ARIMA, multiple regression, nonlinear extrapolation, stochastic processes, and time-series analysis) Optimization Under Uncertainty (runs optimizations using discrete integer and continuous variables for portfolio and project optimization with and without simulation) Modeling and Analytical Tools (runs tornado, spider, and sensitivity analysis, as well as bootstrap simulation, hypothesis testing, distributional fitting, etc.) ROV BizStats (over 130 business statistics and analytical models) ROV Decision Tree (decision tree models, Monte Carlo risk simulation on decision trees, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, Bayesian joint and posterior probability updating, expected value of information, MINIMAX, MAXIMIN, risk profiles) 1 P age

11 Figure 1.2 Risk Simulator Splash Screen Figure 1.3 Risk Simulator Icon Toolbars in Excel 2007/ P age

12 1.4 What s New in Version 2012 The following lists the main capabilities of Risk Simulator, where the highlighted items indicate the latest additions to version 2011/ General Capabilities 1. Available in 11 languages English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Simplified Chinese, and Traditional Chinese. 2. ROV Decision Tree module is included in the latest version and is used to create and value decision tree models. Additional advanced methodologies and analytics are also included: o Decision Tree Models o Monte Carlo risk simulation o Sensitivity Analysis o Scenario Analysis o Bayesian (Joint and Posterior Probability Updating) o Expected Value of Information o MINIMAX o MAXIMIN o Risk Profiles 3. Books analytical theory, application, and case studies are supported by 10 books. 4. Commented Cells turn cell comments on or off and decide if you wish to show cell comments on all input assumptions, output forecasts, and decision variables. 5. Detailed Example Models 24 example models in Risk Simulator and over 300 models in Modeling Toolkit. 6. Detailed Reports all analyses come with detailed reports. 7. Detailed User Manual step-by-step user manual. 8. Flexible Licensing certain functionalities can be turned on or off to allow you to customize your risk analysis experience. For instance, if you are only interested in the forecasting tools in Risk Simulator, you may be able to obtain a special license that activates only the forecasting tools and leaves the other modules deactivated, thereby saving some costs on the software. 9. Flexible Requirements works in Window 7, Vista, and XP; integrates with Excel 2010, 2007, 2003; and works in MAC operating systems running virtual machines. 10. Fully customizable colors and charts tilt, 3D, color, chart type, and much more! 11. Hands-on Exercises detailed step-by-step guide to running Risk Simulator, including guides on interpreting the results. 12. Multiple Cell Copy and Paste allows assumptions, decision variables, and forecasts to be copied and pasted. 5 P age

13 13. Profiling allows multiple profiles to be created in a single model (different scenarios of simulation models can be created, duplicated, edited, and run in a single model). 14. Revised Icons in Excel 2007/2010 a completely reworked icon toolbar that is more intuitive and user friendly. There are four sets of icons that fit most screen resolutions (1280 x 760 and above). 15. Right-Click Shortcuts access all of Risk Simulator's tools and menus using a mouse rightclick. 16. ROV Software Integration works well with other ROV software including Real Options SLS, Modeling Toolkit, Basel Toolkit, ROV Compiler, ROV Extractor and Evaluator, ROV Modeler, ROV Valuator, ROV Optimizer, ROV Dashboard, ESO Valuation Toolkit, and others! 17. RS Functions in Excel insert RS functions for setting assumptions and forecasts, and right-click support in Excel. 18. Troubleshooter allows you to re-enable the software, check for your system requirements, obtain the Hardware ID, and others. 19. Turbo Speed Analysis runs forecasts and other analyses tools at blazingly fast speeds (enhanced in version 5.2). The analyses and results remain the same but are now computed very quickly; reports are generated very quickly as well. 20. Web Resources, Case Studies, and Videos download free models, getting-started videos, case studies, whitepapers, and other materials from our website Simulation Module random number generators ROV Advanced Subtractive Generator, Subtractive Random Shuffle Generator, Long Period Shuffle Generator, Portable Random Shuffle Generator, Quick IEEE Hex Generator, and Basic Minimal Portable Generator sampling methods Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Correlation Copulas applying Normal Copula, T Copula, and Quasi-Normal Copula for correlated simulations probability distributions arcsine, Bernoulli, beta, beta 3, beta 4, binomial, Cauchy, chisquare, cosine, custom, discrete uniform, double log, Erlang, exponential, exponential 2, F distribution, gamma, geometric, Gumbel max, Gumbel min, hypergeometric, Laplace, logistic, lognormal (arithmetic) and lognormal (log), lognormal 3 (arithmetic) and lognormal 3 (log), negative binomial, normal, parabolic, Pareto, Pascal, Pearson V, Pearson VI, PERT, Poisson, power, power 3, Rayleigh, t and t2, triangular, uniform, Weibull, Weibull Alternate Parameters using percentiles as an alternate way of inputting parameters. 26. Custom Nonparametric Distribution make your own distributions for running historical simulations, and applying the Delphi method. 27. Distribution Truncation enabling data boundaries. 28. Excel Functions set assumptions and forecasts using functions inside Excel 29. Multidimensional Simulation simulation of uncertain input parameters. 6 P age

14 30. Precision Control determines if the number of simulation trials run is sufficient. 31. Super Speed Simulation runs 100,000 trials in a few seconds Forecasting Module 32. ARIMA autoregressive integrated moving average models ARIMA (P,D,Q). 33. Auto ARIMA runs the most common combinations of ARIMA to find the best-fitting model. 34. Auto Econometrics runs thousands of model combinations and permutations to obtain the best-fitting model for existing data (linear, nonlinear, interacting, lag, leads, rate, difference). 35. Basic Econometrics econometric and linear/nonlinear and interacting regression models. 36. Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasts time-series forecast methods 37. Cubic Spline nonlinear interpolation and extrapolation. 38. GARCH volatility projections using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models: GARCH, GARCH-M, TGARCH, TGARCH-M, EGARCH, EGARCH-T, GJR-GARCH, and GJR-TGARCH. 39. J-Curve exponential J curves. 40. Limited Dependent Variables Logit, Probit, and Tobit. 41. Markov Chains two competing elements over time and market share predictions. 42. Multiple Regression regular linear and nonlinear regression, with stepwise methodologies (forward, backward, correlation, forward-backward). 43. Neural Network Forecasts linear, nonlinear logistic, hyperbolic tangent, and cosine 44. Nonlinear Extrapolation nonlinear time-series forecasting. 45. S Curve logistic S curves. 46. Time-Series Analysis 8 time-series decomposition models for predicting levels, trends, and seasonalities. 47. Trendlines forecasting and fitting using linear, nonlinear polynomial, power, logarithmic, exponential, and moving averages with goodness of fit Optimization Module 48. Linear Optimization multiphasic optimization and general linear optimization. 49. Nonlinear Optimization detailed results including Hessian matrices, LaGrange functions, and more. 50. Static Optimization quick runs for continuous, integers, and binary optimizations. 51. Dynamic Optimization simulation with optimization. 52. Stochastic Optimization quadratic, tangential, central, forward, and convergence criteria. 7 P age

15 53. Efficient Frontier combinations of stochastic and dynamic optimizations on multivariate efficient frontiers. 54. Genetic Algorithms used for a variety of optimization problems. 55. Multiphasic Optimization testing for local versus global optimum allowing better control over how the optimization is run, and increases the accuracy and dependency of the results. 56. Percentiles and Conditional Means additional statistics for stochastic optimization, including percentiles as well as conditional means, which are critical in computing conditional value at risk measures. 57. Search Algorithm simple, fast, and efficient search algorithms for basic single decision variable and goal seek applications. 58. Super Speed Simulation in Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization runs simulation at super speed while integrated with optimization Analytical Tools Module 59. Check Model tests for the most common mistakes in your model. 60. Correlation Editor allows large correlation matrices to be directly entered and edited. 61. Create Report automates report generation of assumptions and forecasts in a model. 62. Create Statistics Report generates comparative report of all forecast statistics. 63. Data Diagnostics runs tests on heteroskedasticity, micronumerosity, outliers, nonlinearity, autocorrelation, normality, sphericity, nonstationarity, multicollinearity, and correlations. 64. Data Extraction and Export extracts data to Excel or flat text files and Risk Sim files, runs statistical reports and forecast result reports. 65. Data Open and Import retrieves previous simulation run results. 66. Deseasonalization and Detrending deseasonalizes and detrends your data. 67. Distributional Analysis computes exact PDF, CDF, and ICDF of all 42 distributions and generates probability tables. 68. Distributional Designer allows you to create custom distributions. 69. Distributional Fitting (Multiple) runs multiple variables simultaneously, accounts for correlations and correlation significance. 70. Distributional Fitting (Single) Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square tests on continuous distributions, complete with reports and distributional assumptions. 71. Hypothesis Testing tests if two forecasts are statistically similar or different. 72. Nonparametric Bootstrap simulation of the statistics to obtain the precision and accuracy of the results. 73. Overlay Charts fully customizable overlay charts of assumptions and forecasts together (CDF, PDF, 2D/3D chart types). 74. Principal Component Analysis tests the best predictor variables and ways to reduce the data array. 8 P age

16 75. Scenario Analysis hundreds and thousands of static two-dimensional scenarios. 76. Seasonality Test tests for various seasonality lags. 77. Segmentation Clustering groups data into statistical clusters for segmenting your data. 78. Sensitivity Analysis dynamic sensitivity (simultaneous analysis). 79. Structural Break Test tests if your time-series data has statistical structural breaks. 80. Tornado Analysis static perturbation of sensitivities, spider and tornado analysis, and scenario tables Statistics and BizStats Module 81. Percentile Distributional Fitting using percentiles and optimization to find the best-fitting distribution. 82. Probability Distributions Charts and Tables run 45 probability distributions, their four moments, CDF, ICDF, PDF, charts, and overlay multiple distributional charts, and generate probability distribution tables. 83. Statistical Analysis descriptive statistics, distributional fitting, histograms, charts, nonlinear extrapolation, normality test, stochastic parameters estimation, time-series forecasting, trendline projections, etc. 84. ROV BIZSTATS over 130 business statistics and analytical models: Absolute Values, ANOVA: Randomized Blocks Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Single Factor Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Two Way Analysis, ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation, Autoeconometrics (Detailed), Autoeconometrics (Quick), Average, Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasting, Control Chart: C, Control Chart: NP, Control Chart: P, Control Chart: R, Control Chart: U, Control Chart: X, Control Chart: XMR, Correlation, Correlation (Linear, Nonlinear), Count, Covariance, Cubic Spline, Custom Econometric Model, Data Descriptive Statistics, Deseasonalize, Difference, Distributional Fitting, Exponential J Curve, GARCH, Heteroskedasticity, Lag, Lead, Limited Dependent Variables (Logit), Limited Dependent Variables (Probit), Limited Dependent Variables (Tobit), Linear Interpolation, Linear Regression, LN, Log, Logistic S Curve, Markov Chain, Max, Median, Min, Mode, Neural Network, Nonlinear Regression, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Goodness of Fit, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Independence, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Population Variance, Nonparametric: Friedman s Test, Nonparametric: Kruskal-Wallis Test, Nonparametric: Lilliefors Test, Nonparametric: Runs Test, Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One Var), Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (Two Var), Parametric: One Variable (T) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Proportion, Parametric: Two Variable (F) Variances, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Dependent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Equal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Unequal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Proportions, Power, Principal Component Analysis, Rank Ascending, Rank Descending, Relative LN Returns, Relative Returns, Seasonality, Segmentation Clustering, Semi-Standard Deviation (Lower), Semi-Standard Deviation (Upper), Standard 2D Area, Standard 2D Bar, Standard 2D Line, Standard 2D Point, Standard 2D Scatter, Standard 3D Area, Standard 3D Bar, Standard 9 P age

17 3D Line, Standard 3D Point, Standard 3D Scatter, Standard Deviation (Population), Standard Deviation (Sample), Stepwise Regression (Backward), Stepwise Regression (Correlation), Stepwise Regression (Forward), Stepwise Regression (Forward-Backward), Stochastic Processes (Exponential Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Geometric Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion with Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion), Structural Break, Sum, Time-Series Analysis (Auto), Time-Series Analysis (Double Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Double Moving Average), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter s Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter s Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Single Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Single Moving Average), Trend Line (Difference Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential), Trend Line (Linear Detrended), Trend Line (Linear), Trend Line (Logarithmic Detrended), Trend Line (Logarithmic), Trend Line (Moving Average Detrended), Trend Line (Moving Average), Trend Line (Polynomial Detrended), Trend Line (Polynomial), Trend Line (Power Detrended), Trend Line (Power), Trend Line (Rate Detrended), Trend Line (Static Mean Detrended), Trend Line (Static Median Detrended), Variance (Population), Variance (Sample), Volatility: EGARCH, Volatility: EGARCH-T, Volatility: GARCH, Volatility: GARCH-M, Volatility: GJR GARCH, Volatility: GJR TGARCH, Volatility: Log Returns Approach, Volatility: TGARCH, Volatility: TGARCH- M, Yield Curve (Bliss), and Yield Curve (Nelson-Siegel). 10 P age

19 2.2 Getting Started with Risk Simulator A High-Level Overview of the Software The Risk Simulator software has several different applications including Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, optimization, and risk analytics. The Simulation Module allows you to run simulations in your existing Excel-based models, generate and extract simulation forecasts (distributions of results), perform distributional fitting (automatically finding the best-fitting statistical distribution), compute correlations (maintain relationships among simulated random variables), identify sensitivities (creating tornado and sensitivity charts), test statistical hypotheses (finding statistical differences between pairs of forecasts), run bootstrap simulation (testing the robustness of result statistics), and run custom and nonparametric simulations (simulations using historical data without specifying any distributions or their parameters for forecasting without data or applying expert opinion forecasts). The Forecasting Module can be used to generate automatic time-series forecasts (with and without seasonality and trend), multivariate regressions (modeling relationships among variables), nonlinear extrapolations (curve fitting), stochastic processes (random walks, mean-reversions, jump-diffusion, and mixed processes), Box-Jenkins ARIMA (econometric forecasts), Auto ARIMA, basic econometrics and auto econometrics (modeling relationships and generating forecasts), exponential J curves, logistic S curves, GARCH models and their multiple variations (modeling and forecasting volatility), maximum likelihood models for limited dependent variables (logit, tobit, and probit models), Markov chains, trendlines, spline curves, and others. The Optimization Module is used for optimizing multiple decision variables subject to constraints to maximize or minimize an objective, and can be run either as a static optimization, dynamic, and stochastic optimization under uncertainty together with Monte Carlo simulation, or as a stochastic optimization with super speed simulations. The software can handle linear and nonlinear optimizations with binary, integer, and continuous variables, as well as generate Markowitz efficient frontiers. The Analytical Tools Module allows you to run segmentation clustering, hypothesis testing, statistical tests of raw data, data diagnostics of technical forecasting assumptions (e.g., heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and the like), sensitivity and scenario analyses, overlay chart analysis, spider charts, tornado charts, and many other powerful tools. ROV BizStats (over 130 business statistics and analytical models). ROV Decision Tree (decision tree models, Monte Carlo risk simulation on decision trees, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, Bayesian joint and posterior probability updating, expected value of information, MINIMAX, MAXIMIN, risk profiles). The Real Options Super Lattice Solver is a software that complements Risk Simulator, used for solving simple to complex real options problems. 12 P age

20 Starting a New Simulation Profile The following sections walk you through the basics of the Simulation Module in Risk Simulator, while future chapters provide more details about the applications of other modules. To follow along, make sure you have Risk Simulator installed on your computer to proceed. In fact, it is highly recommended that you first watch the getting started videos on the web (www.realoptionsvaluation.com/risksimulator.html) or attempt the step-by-step exercises at the end of this chapter before coming back and reviewing the text in this chapter. This approach is recommended because the videos will get you started immediately, as will the exercises, whereas the text in this chapter focuses more on the theory and detailed explanations of the properties of simulation Running a Monte Carlo Simulation Typically, to run a simulation in your existing Excel model, the following steps have to be performed: 1. Start a new simulation profile or open an existing profile. 2. Define input assumptions in the relevant cells. 3. Define output forecasts in the relevant cells. 4. Run simulation. 5. Interpret the results. If desired, and for practice, open the example file called Basic Simulation Model and follow along with the examples below on creating a simulation. The example file can be found either on the start menu at Start Real Options Valuation Risk Simulator Examples or accessed directly through Risk Simulator Example Models. To start a new simulation, you will first need to create a simulation profile. A simulation profile contains a complete set of instructions on how you would like to run a simulation. That is, all the assumptions, forecasts, run preferences, and so forth. Having profiles facilitates creating multiple scenarios of simulations. That is, using the same exact model, several profiles can be created, each with its own specific simulation properties and requirements. The same person can create different test scenarios using different distributional assumptions and inputs or multiple persons can test their own assumptions and inputs on the same model. Start Excel and create a new model or open an existing one (you can use the Basic Simulation Model example to follow along). Click on Risk Simulator New Simulation Profile. Specify a title for your simulation as well as all other pertinent information (Figure 2.1). 13 P age

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