Risk Management. Sharif Project Management Session 10.1

Transcription

1 Risk Management Sharif Project Management Session

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3 Project Risk An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative impact on a project objective External: unpredictable External: predictable Internal: non-technical Internal: technical Legal Business risks Insurable (pure) risk Direct property damage Indirect consequential loss Legal liability Personnel 3

4 Risk Continuun Total Risk Uncertainty No Risk Scope of Risk Management Unknown Unknowns Known Unknowns Knowns No Information Partial Information Complete Information Enter New Markets Feasibility Studies Closeout Reports 4

5 Financial Risks Up-front funding and payback period based upon number of planes sold Mitigation strategies Funding by life cycle phase Continuous financial risk management Sharing risks with subcontractors Risk reevaluation based upon sales commitments 5

6 Market Risks Forecasting customers expectations on cost, configuration, and amenities based upon a year life of a plane Mitigation strategies Close customer contact and input Willingness to custom-design per customer Development of a baseline design that allows for customization 6

7 Technical Risks Because of the long lifetime for a plane, we must forecast technology and its impact on cost, safety, reliability and maintainability Mitigation strategies A structured change management process Use of proven technology rather than high risk technology Parallel product improvement and new product development processes 7

8 Production Risks Coordination of manufacturing and assembly of a large number of subcontractors without impacting cost, schedule, quality or safety Mitigation strategies Close working relationships with subcontractors A structured change management process Lessons learned from other new projects Use of learning curves 8

9 Risk Types at Boeing Financial risks Market risks Technical risks Production risks 9

10 Definition of Risk Risk = f(likelihood, Impact) event Likelihood is the probability of occurrence Impact is the amount at stake 10

11 Components of Risk Risk Event Risk Probability Impact Timing Tolerance Probability Impact 11

12 Variation through the Project Life Cycle? Risk Event Probability? Amount at Stake? Cost to make Changes? Time along project life cycle 12

13 Rating Impacts for a Risk 13

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15 RISK MANAGEMENT Chapter 17 15

16 Basic Concept Risk management focuses on: Known unknowns Proactive management The alternative to proactive management is reactive management, also called crisis management. This requires significantly more resources and takes longer for problems to surface. 16

17 Risk Management Plan The systematic processes of identifying, analyzing & responding to project risks A formal approach to the process as opposed to an intuitive one. Define objectives Identify Risk Quantify Risk Develop Response Risk Control 17

18 Risk Management Processes PMBOK Risk planning Risk assessment Risk identification Risk analysis/quantification Risk handling Risk monitoring 18

19 Risk management Risk management focuses on the future Risk and information are inversely related Historically, we focused our attentions on schedule and cost risk management. Today, our primary emphasis is on technological risk management: Can we design it and build it? What is the risk of obsolescence? 19

20 Why bother with Risk Management? Arguments AGAINST Arguments FOR 20

21 مديريت بين مراحل رابطه پروژه ريسك مديريت با پروژه 21

22 Decision-Making Categories Complete uncertainty Relative uncertainty (partial information) Complete certainty Tolerance For Risk Risk avoider Risk neutral Risk lover 22

23 Developing and Using Payoff Tables Establishing the procedure to follow Construct the Payoff table Decision-making under certainty Decision-making under complete uncertainty Decision-making under risk Maximin Approach Maximax Approach Minimax regret Approach Insufficient Reason Approach Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Approach Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) Approach Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Approach 23

24 FIVE STEPS TO DEVELOP PAYOFF TABLE List all the alternatives. List the future consequences of each alternative. Identify the payoffs associated with each combination. Assess the degree of certainty that these combinations will materialize Decide on a decision criterion. 24

25 Developing Contingency Plans 25

26 Problem-Solving Idea Generation: Brainstorming 26

27 Risk Quantification STAGE I STAGE II GUID- ANCE WARHEAD PROGRAM SUMMARY DESIGN TEST MANU. COST LEGEND HIGH MEDIUM 27 LOW

28 Risk Handling Assumption (retention) Avoidance Control (mitigation) Transfer 28

29 Future Risks Inexperienced Customer s Knowledge Experienced INCREASING RISKS Simple Contract Type Complex 29

30 How Much Risk is Acceptable? High tolerance for risk Medium tolerance for risk Low tolerance for risk 30

31 Degrees of Downstream Risk Low Risk R&D Manufacturing Marketing Time 31

32 Degrees of Downstream Risk Moderate Risk R&D Information Exchange Manufacturing Marketing Time 32

33 Degrees of Downstream Risk High Risk R&D Manufacturing Marketing Time 33

34 Prioritization of Risks First (Highest) Priority Schedule Cost Technical Performance or Quality Second Priority Third Priority 34

35 Risk Intensity Product Changes Radical Breakthrough Next Generation Addition to Family Add-ons & Enhancements Process Changes New Process Next Generation Changes and Upgrades Fine-Tuning & Incidentals Risk Type Market High High Medium Medium Technical High High Medium Medium Timing High High Medium Low Cost Low Medium Medium Low Price Medium Medium Low Low Quality Medium Medium Medium Low 35

36 Risk Controls Too Long Schedule Length Appropriate No Risk Plan Low Risk Controls Too Many Risk Management Filters and Gates High 36

37 Risk Control Measures Extreme Range of Controls Intensity of Controls Standard Controls Low Low Risk Intensity High 37

38 Which Method to Use? Rigid Policies/ Procedures Project Procedural Documentation Guidelines Assumption High Reduction Transfer Tolerance for Risk Avoidance Low 38

39 The Risk-Reward Matrix High Risk Medium Low Low High Medium Reward 39 Quality Quality of of Resources Resources Needed Needed Medium High High Low Low Medium

40 Mitigation Strategies Available Technical Risk Assessment and Forecasting Financial Risk Assessment Technical Technical Strategy Strategy Product/Market Product/Market Strategy Strategy Market Risk Assessment and Forecasting Project Objectives Project Planning Schedule Risk Assessment Project Execution Numerous Opportunities for Tradeoffs Resulting from Risk Analyses Limited 40

41 Interacting Risks Desirable Product Feature A Specification Limit On Characteristic B Undesirable Undesirable Product Feature B Desirable 41

42 Risk Planning Poor Risk Management Technical Inability 42 Customer Customer Expectations Expectations Actual Performance Actual Performance Performance Time