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1 June 2014 TIAA-CREF Asset Management Documeent title on one or two Awaiting lines in the Gustan Cranes: Book 24pt Supply Discipline & Office Market Performance TIAA-CREF Global Real Estate Strategy & Research Martha Peyton, Ph.D. Managing Director Edward F. Pierzak, Ph.D. Managing Director Fabiana Lotito Senior Director The recovery in US commercial real estate that began in 2010 has been helped along by a very constrained pace of construction. Of the four main property types, only the apartment sector is generating supply inflows in line with historical norms. But, as vacancy rates continue declining, accompanied by increasingly strong credit availability, the stage is set for an upswing in commercial construction. The specter of cranes on the horizon cannot be far off. For investors, the key question is the potential impact on property investment performance as construction returns. With this in mind, this report examines the concept of supply discipline for US office markets and its relationship with total return performance. The analysis shows that the discipline associated with the best investment performance is composed of a combination of strong demand growth that produces significant absolute rent growth and just enough new construction to preserve that rent growth. Market Discipline Commercial real estate investors are likely to agree that supply-disciplined markets are preferable locations to markets without supply discipline. Yet, when pressed to offer a technique for identifying supply-disciplined markets, many are unable to do so, as their assessments are often based on experience and intuition. In essence, investors know a supply-disciplined market when they see one, but they have difficulty defining the concept in a technical sense. So, what constitutes a supply-disciplined property market? A simple definition is a market where new construction has historically responded in a lesser, yet aligned, manner to demand. This alignment can be measured technically using a metric from introductory economics called the price elasticity of supply (PES). 1 PES measures the responsiveness, or elasticity, of a quantity supplied to a change in price. It is simply calculated as the percent change in quantity supplied divided by the percent change in price. This concept can be easily adaptable to the supply response in individual property markets. For PES values less than 1, a change in price produces a lesser change in supply. In these situations, supply is considered inelastic; a condition consistent with supply-disciplined markets. For PES values greater than 1, supply is considered elastic; a likely situation for markets that lack supply discipline.

2 For the analysis described in this report, we focus on the office sector and calculate each office market s PES by dividing its average annual percent change in stock by its average annual percent change in rent. 2 The analysis includes only the nineteen metro markets with full twenty calendar-year histories (1994 to 2013) for both CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE-EA) and National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data. 3 Figure 1 displays the PES values for the nineteen US office markets. The chart also shows two horizontal lines that serve as breakpoints and allow for the assignment of each market into one of three groups. Markets with PES values less than that of the US (roughly 0.5) were assigned to the low PES group and those with values near or greater than 1 were assigned to the high PES group; all other markets were placed in the moderate PES group. 4 Office Market Price Elasticity of Supply (1994 to 2013) Figure 1 3.0% 2.5% 16% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% PES=1.0 13% US PES % New York Houston New Houston York Los San Angeles Francisco Oakland Boston Denver Washington DallasChicago San Orange D.C. Diego Philadelphia County Austin Minneapolis Seattle St. Sacramento Louis Atlanta Los Angeles San Francisco Oakland Boston Denver Dallas Washington D.C. Chicago San Diego Orange County Philadelphia Austin Minneapolis Seattle St. Louis Sacramento Atlanta Sources: CBRE-EA, as of 4Q13; TIAA-CREF Perusing the list of markets in each PES group reveals few surprises; the results are very much consistent with investor expectations for each of the markets. The low PES markets include localities where new office construction is generally difficult for one or more reasons. For example, limited site availability and long development approval processes are clearly factors in both New York and San Francisco. In contrast, Atlanta, which is in the high PES group, is physically unconstrained and relatively friendly to developers. Washington, DC lies somewhere between these two extremes; it is physically constrained within the District itself, but close-in suburbs with excellent public transportation do offer substitute locations where building is easier. The one market with an unexpected PES result is Houston. Real estate practitioners with long memories will recall vacancy rates above 30% in Houston during the oil-bust years in the late 1980s. Easy credit, plenty of open land, and an absence of zoning restrictions all contributed to overbuilding even as demand waned. But, over the last 20 years, office construction in Houston has moderated with an average addition to stock of approximately 1% per year versus the national pace of roughly 1.3%. Could it be that Houston has become supply disciplined? A closer look at the annual data reveals that Houston s average annual supply growth over the last twenty years may be a statistical anomaly because virtually no new office supply was delivered in the market for the first five years of the analysis, 1994 to Yet, even after accounting for this dearth of development activity, Houston would continue to be categorized as a low PES office market. 2

3 Discipline Pays Conventional wisdom suggests that investing in supply-disciplined property markets pays. But, does it? To answer this question, we examined the relationships between low, moderate, and high PES market portfolios and total return. Using NCREIF data from 1994 to 2013, average annual total return performance for each office market was compared to overall office sector performance and total return spreads were calculated for each market. Positive spreads indicated portfolio outperformance; negative spreads underperformance. Portfolio spreads were then calculated for each of the PES groups by taking the simple average of each group s individual market spreads. Figure 2 displays the average annual total return spreads for the low, moderate, and high PES market portfolios. Office Market Price Elasticity of Supply & Total Return Spreads (1994 to 2013) Figure 2 Average Annual Total Return Spreads (bps) % 96 4% Sources: CBRE-EA, as of 4Q13; NCREIF, as of 4Q13; TIAA-CREF It is not possible to invest in an index. Performance for indices does not reflect investment fees or transactions costs. The results reveal a pecking order across the varying degrees of supply discipline. As expected, the low PES, or supply-disciplined, market portfolio had the best performance; its average annual total return spread was nearly 100 basis points. The high PES, or supply-undisciplined, market portfolio had the worst performance, underperforming by an average of roughly 100 basis points. The moderate PES market portfolio underperformed, but the average result was near zero, suggesting performance comparable to that of the broad office sector. The results indicate that, on average, supply-disciplined markets have historically outperformed; markets that lack supply discipline have underperformed. Tell Me More But, this categorization alone is not a basis for making investment judgments because not all markets within a particular PES group offer equivalent attractiveness. For example, with its historically limited supply and modest rent growth, Hartford, CT would be considered a low PES market. 5 But, despite its low PES value, Hartford lacks broad appeal for real estate investors. Its supply discipline is not enough to compensate for its shortcomings which constrain the demand for office space. 3

4 Differences across markets are illustrated in Figure 3. For the low PES portfolio, all of the total return spreads were positive, indicating market outperformance, but portfolio performance was primarily driven by New York and San Francisco. For the high PES portfolio, market performance was consistently bad with the exception of the high growth markets, Austin and Seattle. For the moderate PES group, markets were equally split between outperformers and underperformers. In all, there were 6 markets that can be viewed as significant chronic underperformers: Philadelphia, Chicago, Sacramento, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Minneapolis. All of these markets underperformed the broad office sector, on average, by more than 150 basis points per year over the last 20 years. Individual Office Market Average Annual Total Return Spreads (1994 to 2013) Figure % New York New San York Francisco Oakland Los Angeles Houston Orange Boston Washington County San Diego Denver D.C. Dallas Philadelphia Chicago Seattle Austin Sacramento St. Louis Atlanta Minneapolis San Francisco Oakland Los Angeles Houston Boston Orange County Washington D.C. San Diego Denver Dallas Philadelphia Chicago Seattle Austin Sacramento St. Louis -283 Atlanta Minneapolis Sources: CBRE-EA, as of 4Q13; NCREIF, as of 4Q13; TIAA-CREF With chronic underperformers in both the moderate and high PES groups, there is obviously more to the market supply discipline story that needs explaining. To explore this view, Figure 4 plots the components of the PES calculation, average annual change in stock and average annual change in rent, for individual office markets. Each market is identified along with its average annual total return spread in basis points over the last twenty calendar years. The scatter plot also displays the lines that correspond to the breakpoints for the groups. The purple line shows all points where PES values equal 1; the blue line shows all points where PES values equal the US value, roughly

5 Average Annual Percentage Change in Stock & Rent (1994 to 2013) Figure 4 Average Annual Change in Rent 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% NY; +255 LA; +24 Hou; +9 SF; +159 DEN; -9 OAK; +31 DAL; -88 BOS; +131 OC; +128 PHI; -174 CHI; -230 STL; -192 MIN; -283 DC; +103 SD; +51 SEA; +190 US PES 0.5 SAC; -188 ATL; -194 AUS; +49 PES= % 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Average Annual Change in Stock Sources: CBRE-EA, as of 4Q13; NCREIF, as of 4Q13; TIAA-CREF The complexity of the chart requires very careful examination which is rewarded with a clear conclusion. Supply discipline is not only about the relative response of supply to changes in rent as in the PES measure, it is also about the absolute response of supply to absolute changes in rent. The metro markets enclosed in the oval are the 6 chronic underperforming office markets; they include both moderate and high PES markets. In these markets, supply responded to rent changes that were too weak to produce outperformance in total return. In contrast, both Seattle and Austin are high PES markets where supply has been very responsive to rent changes, but those rent changes have been strong enough to propel outperformance. These observations suggest that investors need to consider both supply discipline and the absolute magnitude of expected rent changes in their market selection processes. The latter encompasses all the factors that influence local economic vitality and demand for space. 5

6 Conclusion: Supply Discipline and Investment Decisions We find that supply-disciplined office markets as a group have indeed produced stronger investment returns versus the group of markets lacking supply discipline. This finding alone justifies using supply discipline, as shown in the PES metric described in this report, as a criteria for identifying attractive markets for investment. But, when individual metro area market performance was examined, the story proved to be more complicated. The best performing metro areas not only had disciplined supply relative to rent growth as shown by their low PES scores, but also had stronger rent growth than other markets in an absolute sense. On the other end of the spectrum, metro areas with weak absolute rent growth produced much less attractive investment performance even when supply elasticity was moderate. These results validate the process that we use for selecting target markets. In that process, we focus on metro areas that have historically demonstrated supply discipline combined with strong demand for space. Supply discipline alone is not enough. 1 See David Lynn, Ph.D., CRE, Bohdy Hedgcock, and Jeff Organisciak, Supply Constrained Markets, Real Estate Issues, Volume 35, Number 2, This paper identifies the price elasticity of supply (PES) as a useful, albeit not perfect, proxy for market supply constraints. 2 See David Lynn, Ph.D., CRE, Bohdy Hedgcock, and Jeff Organisciak, Supply Constrained Markets, Real Estate Issues, Volume 35, Number 2, In calculating PES, this paper uses cumulative supply and rent changes from 2004 to Recognizing the linkages between CBD and suburban locations within a market, office markets are examined in a broad context. Efforts to focus on market segments have the potential to create data mapping issues, as well as suffer from limited observations. Furthermore, the CBD versus suburban distinction is not always clear or relevant in some markets. 4 A degree of latitude was allowed in assigning individual markets to PES groups. As a result, the breakpoints can be considered fuzzy thresholds. 5 The Hartford, CT office market was not included in the analysis due to its lack of a full twenty calendar-year history in NCREIF. Using twenty-year CBRE-EA data, it had limited average annual supply growth (0.22%) and modest average annual rent growth (1.36%), resulting in a PES value of Real estate securities are subject to various risks, including fluctuations in property values, higher expenses or lower income than expected, and potential environmental problems and liability. The material is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any product or service to which this information may relate. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. Past performance does not guarantee future results. TIAA-CREF Asset Management provides investment advice and portfolio management services to the TIAA-CREF group of companies through the following entities: Teachers Advisors, Inc., TIAA-CREF Investment Management, LLC, TIAA-CREF Alternatives Advisors, LLC, and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA ). TIAA-CREF Alternatives Advisors, LLC is a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA) Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America-College Retirement Equities Fund (TIAA-CREF), 730 Third Avenue, New York, NY C (06/14)

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