Using Freight Market Intelligence to Understand Known Unknowns in Pricing

Transcription

1 Using Freight Market Intelligence to Understand Known Unknowns in Pricing Friday, January 25, :00pm EST / 11:00am PST Presented by: & CHAINalytics

2 Today s Speakers Insert Evan s Headshot Evan Armstrong President Armstrong & Associates Matt Harding Principal, Transportation Practice Chainalytics Moderator: Brian Fish, Director, Business Development, Chainalytics 2

3 Global Third-Party Logistics Market Trends & Analysis Website:

4 About Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Founded in 1980 Supply Chain Market Research and Consulting Services Over 19,400 Newsletter Subscribers Current Market Research: Who's Who in Logistics and Supply Chain Management Americas Who's Who in Logistics and Supply Chain Management International Over 350 Detailed 3PL Profiles; 6,000+ 3PL Customer Relationships The Business of Warehousing in North America 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices Targeted in-depth market research papers Articles & Press Coverage: American Shipper, Global Logistics & Supply Chain Strategies, Journal of Commerce, Logistics Management, Logistics Quarterly, Modern Materials Handling, Traffic World, Transport Topics, Wall Street Journal Consulting Services: Logistics Outsourcing, Benchmarking, Supply Chain Evaluation & Redesign, Strategic Planning, Mergers & Acquisitions, Expert Witness, Systems Evaluation & Selection Global Resources: U.S. Organization; Eric Xiang, Shanghai China; Latin America, Japan and South Korea Alliance Partners 4

5 A&A has reviewed over 100 distinct 3PL operations, some multiple times. 5

6 Provider profile information and 3PL customer reviews 6

7 Domestic and International Providers Connect the Global Supply Chain 3PL Connectivity Ports Manufacturing Suppliers Customers Distribution Centers Repair Center Customs Carriers Transportation Services: Air Brokerage Operations Dedicated Contract Carriage Freight Forwarding Home Delivery Just-In-time (JIT) Less-than-Truckload (LTL) Sourcing Package Delivery Ocean Shipping Rail Rail TOFC/COFC Small Package Specialized Truckload TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SERVICES Transportation Planning Transportation Execution: Freight Bill Payment: Carrier Mgmt and Contracting Contract File Maintenance Pre-Audit Inbound Shipment Planning Exception handling Post-Audit Outbound Shipment Planning Load Tendering Performed In-house End-to-End Matching Loss/Damage Claims Outsourced Mode Conversion/Optimization Tracking & Tracing Value-Added Services Call Centers Lot Control Reverse Logistics Cross Docking Merge In Transit Store Support Customization Manufacturing Support Sequencing/Metering Inventory Control/Vendor Mgmt Pick/Pack Specialty Packaging KanBan Pool Distribution Sub Assembly Kitting Repair/Refurbish Labeling Returnable Container Mgmt OTHER 3PL SERVICES, SKILLS & HANDLING Consulting/Process Reengineering Purchase Order Mgmt Bulk Commodities Factoring/Financial Services Project Logistics Hazardous Materials Installation/Removal Quality Control Food Grade/Sterile Order Management Union Services Temperature Controlled 7

8 Top Global Fortune 500 Buyers of 3PL Services

9 US$ Billions Global 3PL Market Trends by Major Geographic Region The Global 3PL Market reached $616B in Region / Year CAGR 2013E vs North America $ $ $ $ $ $ % 5-7% Europe $ $ $ $ $ $ % 0-2% Asia Pacific $ 94.3 $ $ $ $ $ % 12-15% South America $ 10.4 $ 15.4 $ 16.2 $ 27.6 $ 33.3 $ % 15-18% 9

10 Top 25 Global 3PLs Rank Third-Party Logistics Provider (3PL) Gross Logistics Revenue (US$ Millions)* 1 DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding 32,160 2 Kuehne + Nagel 22,181 3 DB Schenker Logistics 20,704 4 Nippon Express 20,313 5 C.H. Robinson Worldwide 10,336 6 CEVA Logistics 9,602 7 UPS Supply Chain Solutions 8,923 8 Hyundai GLOVIS 8,588 9 DSV 8, Panalpina 7, SDV/Bolloré Logistics 6, Sinotrans 6, Toll Holdings 6, Expeditors International of Washington 6, DACHSER 5, Geodis 5, GEFCO 5, Norbert Dentressangle 4, UTi Worldwide 4, Hellmann Worldwide Logistics 4, Agility 4, Yusen Logistics 3, Wincanton 3, Caterpillar Logistics Services 3, GENCO ATC 3, PL has been dominated by large European and U.S.- based 3PLs. Growing Asia-Pacific 3PLs, like Toll Holdings are experiencing above average recent growth. The largest global 3PLs have operations in geographies representing over 90% of the world s GDP. *Revenues are company reported or A&A estimates and have been converted to US$ using the average exchange rate in order to make noncurrency related growth comparisons.

11 Trends in 3PL/Customer Relationships % of Domestic Fortune 500 Companies using 3PLs 11

12 U.S. 3PL Market E (US$ Billions) CAGR = 10.3% The U.S. 3PL industry has experienced a strong rebound from the economic downturn in For 2011, 3PL growth was three times the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). With Asia cooling and Europe in decline, growth for 2011 was 5.1% and is estimated at 6.3% for should be similar to

13 3PL Gross Revenue by Industry E Fortune 1000 (US$B) Major Industry Growth Automotive Consumer Goods Elements Food, Groceries Healthcare Industrial Retailing Technological Other CAGR 0.9% 4.7% 4.1% 6.5% 8.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.3% 2.5% E CAGR 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 6.3% 8.4% 8.0% 5.1% 5.3% 2.9% 13

14 (US$ Millions) Growth by U.S. 3PL Market Segment 2011 Gross Revenue (US$ Billions) 2011 Net Revenue (US$ Billions) % Change 2013E vs Net Revenue PL Market Segment CAGR Domestic Transportation Management % 8-10% International Transportation Management % 2-4% Dedicated Contract Carriage % 3-5% Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution % 5-7% Total % 4-6% 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 Net Revenue Growth by 3PL Segment E ITM has been the Highest Growth Segment, but has cooled. VAWD is Maturing. DCC is Mature. Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution (VAWD) - Asset Based Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) - Asset 14 Based

15 After-Tax Net Income Margin Trends by 3PL Market Segment 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2011, 17.4% 7.3% 4.5% 3.0% Year Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution (VAWD) - Asset-Based Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) - Asset-Based International Transportation Management (ITM) - Non-Asset Based Domestic Transportation Management (DTM) - Non-Asset Based 15

16 U.S. DTM Network Transportation Managers Robust TMS for network transportation planning and execution Heavy EDI/electronic systems interfaces Some Buy/Sell side arrangements with a lot of Freight Under Management FUM = Freight Under Management, Managed Transportation Shipper may hold contracts with core carriers Shipper contracts with a 3PL which gets a management fee (1.5-3% of FUM) 16

17 Top 30 DTM/Freight Brokers Ranked by 2011 Net Revenue 8,740 CHRW s net revenue is 40% of the total Top

18 Typical DTM/Freight Brokerage Services Pricing Models Service Type Spot market/transactional freight brokerage Large contract customer Enterprise transportation management Net Revenue/Income Source Spread (gross margin) between amount paid to carrier and amount collected from shipper (target is 15% gross margin) 5-7% gross margin Basic 3PL DTM: Use of TMS with standardized reporting. Large 3PL Network Transportation Management: TMS with carrier contracting and payment, shipment/load optimization, end-to-end load matching 4-5% of freight under management, accessorial charges for value-adds as requested 1.5-3% of freight under management, fee per logistics engineer plus markup, accessorial charges for value-adds as requested 18

19 U.S. DTM/Freight Brokerage Average Gross Margin Trend (Annual sample groups represent >40% of total market) 19

20 3PLs Expanding Oil & Natural Gas Business in the Bakken Formation Bakken Formation, a Significant New Domestic Source of Oil and Natural Gas: According to the 2008 United States Geological Survey, the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin Province in Montana and North Dakota has estimated average undiscovered volumes of: 3.65 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids. Source: USGS According to OilShaleGas.com, there are now over 6,000 active oil wells in the Bakken Formation with most activity in Montana and North Dakota. 20

21 3PLs Expanding Oil & Natural Gas Business in the Bakken Formation BNSF Logistics Bakken Operations Logistics Support Case Study Example: BNSFL manages up to 10 to 15 oil rig moves per month for multiple oil & gas exploration companies including Continental Resources and Brigham Oil. Each move requires approximately 30 days to relocate a rig from one location to another. To assemble a rig, 20 to 30 truckloads of materials and components are needed. Overhead cranes are required to unload larger rig components. To locally coordinate the oil rig moves, BNSFL opened an office in Williston, North Dakota last year. To support natural gas fracking operations, BNSFL manages inbound transportation for multiple exploration/drilling companies to the drilling sites. Inbound materials include drilling pipe, pumping units, frac sand, and fracking chemicals. The frac sand is sourced domestically from mines in Illinois and Wisconsin and a small amount of ceramic sand is imported via ocean containers from China and Brazil. BNSFL supports frac sand moves with door-to-door ocean import services, rail to truck transload services and intermodal rail-truck deliveries. In 2011, BNSFL transloaded sand from 528 rail hopper cars to trucks for final delivery to drilling sites. BNSFL s parent BNSF Railway delivered over 25,000 railcars of frac sand into the Bakken last year. 21

22 Top 20 Dedicated Contract Carriage Providers Rank DCC Provider Power Units 1 J.B. Hunt Dedicated Contract Services 4,639 2 Ryder Supply Chain Solutions 4,217 3 Greatwide Logistics Services 4,016 4 Swift Transportation 4,000 5 Schneider National 3,950 6 Werner Enterprises 3,400 7 Ruan Transport 3,309 8 Penske Logistics 2,600 9 NFI Transportation 1, U.S. Xpress Enterprises 1, Cardinal Logistics Management 1, UPS Freight Truckload 1, PD 1, Exel (DHL Supply Chain - Americas) 1, C.R. England Averitt Express LINC Logistics Landair Aim Integrated Logistics CRST Dedicated Services

23 Top 25 North American Warehousing 3PLs by Millions Sq.Ft. Rank Third-Party Logistics Provider (3PL) Warehouse Space (in MMSF) 1 Exel (DHL Supply Chain - Americas) GENCO ATC Jacobson Companies Americold CEVA Logistics (The Americas) OHL Ryder Supply Chain Solutions Caterpillar Logistics Services Kenco Logistic Services UTi Worldwide UPS Supply Chain Solutions NFI Logistics Menlo Worldwide Logistics DSC Logistics APL Logistics (North America) Kuehne + Nagel (The Americas) Penske Logistics WSI Warehouse Services Saddle Creek DB Schenker Americas syncreon New Breed Logistics Schneider Logistics Kane Is Able 8.5 Most major North American valueadded warehousing and distribution (VAWD) 3PLs have national warehousing networks. 23

24 Select 3PL Acquisitions Purchase Price ($M) Multiple Target Buyer Year Jacobson Companies Oak Hill Capital ** EGL Apollo Management/CEVA , ** Chic Holdings Ltd. Menlo Worldwide Logistics * Christian Salvesen Norbert Dentressangle ** Geodis SNCF , * ABX Logistics DSV A/S , * IBM (internal global logistics ops.) Geodis ** YRC Dedicated Contract Carriage Greatwide Logistics ** Summit Logistics International Toll Holdings ** ATC Technology Corporation GENCO ** Total Logistic Control Ryder ** TDG Norbert Dentressangle ** Exel Transportation Services (Mode) Hub Group * Caterpillar Logistics Services Platinum Equity * Phoenix International C.H. Robinson Worldwide ** Carmichael International APL Logistics ** EBIT* or EBITDA** Multiple Source: Primary, Company Information; Secondary, A&A Estimates 24

25 3PL Market Predictions Asia-Pacific and South America will continue to be the fastest growing 3PL Markets. Increasing focus on domestic markets for finished goods distribution Indonesia could be the real deal with the 5 th largest global workforce at 117.4M, a median age of 28.5 years, and 16 th largest GDP growing at 6.5%. A more modern-oriented Middle East should bolster growth in air and ocean freight. 3PL M&A activity will continue at a healthy pace, but good targets are limited. Recent M&A deals have involved smaller ITM 3PLs indicating an expansion by domestic transportation managers internationally via M&A. Purchases have been strategic and reflect the prevailing interest in non-asset businesses. Mexican-American cross border traffic should continue to increase. Increased near-shoring Slowing U.S. auto sales could impose limits. 25

26 3PL Market Predictions (Continued) Overall U.S. 3PL Market Growth should be similar to GDP growth is estimated at 1.5%. DTM will lead. Project Logistics for Oil & Gas will continue to be strong. Long-term manufacturers relying on oil & gas as inputs will increase production in North America. Domestic Transportation Management/Freight Brokerage will continue to become increasingly competitive. The greatest pressure will be on small brokers. Gross margin pressure will continue with all players trying to achieve scale. Expansion into DCC by general truckload providers will continue. 26

27 Thank You! Milwaukee Wisconsin Office Evan Armstrong Armstrong & Associates, Inc West Lincoln Avenue Suite 207 West Allis, WI USA Stoughton Wisconsin Office Richard Armstrong Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 100 Business Park Circle Suite 202 Stoughton, WI USA

28 Agenda 1 Brief Overview of Chainalytics 2 Known Unknowns & Pricing Dynamics 3 FMIC Tools 28

29 Value-Driven Click to edit Supply Master Chain title Decisions style Years Supply Chain Design Quarters Packaging Optimization Months Weeks Planning Horizon Sales, Inventory & Operations Planning Logistics Operations Transportation Service Supply Chain When should we buy or make product to make the best use of our capacity? What is the best flowpath? How much and where should inventory be positioned in the supply chain? At what service level can we profitably satisfy demand? Should our warehousing and material operations be insourced or outsourced? How should we transport product through the supply chain? Can we reduce our transport and logistics costs by improving cube utilization? How well do our current operations mitigate repair and warranty costs? How can we increase visibility to stakeholders? 29

30 Click Who to edit is Chainalytics? Master title style Our Genesis Market Lacked Proven, Focused Supply Chain Analytics Competence Best Analytical Minds in Supply Chain Named to 100 Great Supply Chain Partners List by SupplyChainBrain; Recognized for 8 Years Running Launched Freight Market Intelligence Consortium (FMIC) Mike Kilgore named a Pro to Know by Supply & Demand Chain Executive; Steve Ellet, Gary Girotti, Irv Grossman, Jeff Metersky, Matt Harding, and Kevin Zweier also recognized Established Chainalytics India Private Limited in Bangalore FMIC named Top Supply Chain Innovation by Supply & Demand Chain Executive Named to ARC Advisory s 10 Coolest Supply Chain Boutiques TODAY More Than 90 FTEs Worldwide 300+ Unique Clients 17 of Gartner s Top 25 Supply Chains 5 of Top 10 Retailers 7 of Top 10 Food & Beverage Manufacturers 6 of Top 10 CPG Companies Transportation Practice Best Practice & System Assessment Mode Analysis Procurement 2009 Launched Sales & Operations Variability Consortium (SOVC) vs Strategic Growth via Mergers & Acquisitions Supply Chain Operations (Chainnovations) Packaging Optimization (Adalis Packaging Solutions Group) Strategic Investment by Global Environment Fund (GEF) Business Intelligence Freight Market Intelligence Consortium Membership-Based Consortium for All Major Modes of Transportation (TL, LTL, Ocean, and Air) Analyze $19B in Freight Spend from 100+ Customers in All Major Industry Sectors Robust Technology 30

31 Click Some to edit of Master Our Clients title style RETAIL FOOD AND BEVERAGE HOME/OFFICE NON-DURABLES HOME/OFFICE DURABLES HIGH TECH COMMUNICATION AND UTILITIES Packaging Healthcare Auto/Industrial Chemical/Process LSP OTHER INDUSTRIES SERVED 31

32 3PL Freight Click Market to edit Intelligence Master title style Consortium Truckload Member Demographics Key Statistics: $1.8B+ in Transportation Spend, Over 1MM Truckloads (Dry Van and Temp Control) >250 >250 Miles Miles Dry Dry Van Van Destination Origin Markets 32

33 North American Click to edit Truckload Master Rate title Environment style Market Position by Week of Year SOFT CAPACITY All Member Volume, By Origin Region, All Volume, By Week All Regions, vs. Market % By Week TIGHT CAPACITY 33

34 Freight Market Click Intelligence to edit Master and title Known style Unknowns Area of Responsibility Knowns Unknowns Managing Capacity Valuing Carrier Capabilities Growing Customer Relationships Understanding Market Rates and Profitability Market capacity is guaranteed to ebb and flow. Current carrier activity is well known experience is derived from internal business intelligence. The amount of spot and contract logistics needs each customer expects. Seasonality and the global economic environment strain margins and service levels. Where does market capacity impact rates and for how long? How does the broader market activity create new opportunities? When should the balance between brokerage and contract volumes change? When does the market indicate triggers to bid? 34

35 Processes Click within to a edit Market Master Orientation title style Framework Content Service Providers Market Focus Logistics Service Providers Value Focus Other Constituencies Support & Performance Focus Market Intelligence Homogenize Big Data Develop Econometric Market Model Monthly TL Data Quarterly LTL Data Transportation & Carrier Relations Management Procurement Contract Logistics Spot Market Services Data Driven Exchange External Customers Minimize Cost Maximize Service Internal Stakeholders Procurement/Pricing Network Strategy Vendor Alignment Synthesize Output Develop Market Intelligence Lane, Trend Reports 10K+ Docs/Year Reports Web Tools Integration Planning & Execution Business Intelligence Synthesize Market Intelligence External Service Providers Carrier Relationships Bid Response Contracting Performance/KPI 35

36 Click 3PL FMIC to edit Content Master Delivery title style Truckload Dry Van Scope Frequency Reports Technologies North America (All Distances) Monthly Delivery Trailing 3 Months Trailing 12 Months Summary Reports Lane Reports Trend Reports Spotlight Reports Web Single Rate Web Batch Upload ifmi Truckload Temp Control North America (>250 Miles) Monthly Delivery Trailing 3 Months Trailing 12 Months Summary Reports Lane Reports Trend Reports Spotlight Reports Web Single Rate Web Batch Upload ifmi Less than Truckload North America (All Distances) Quarterly Delivery Trailing 3 Months Trailing 12 Months Summary Reports Lane Reports Trend Reports Spotlight Reports Spreadsheet Rating Tools 36

37 Click 3PL to edit FMIC Master Reports title style Summary 37

38 Click 3PL to edit FMIC Master Reports title style Detail 38

39 Click 3PL to edit FMIC Master Reports title style Trends 39

40 Click 3PL to edit FMIC Master Reports title style Configurable by Customer, Geography, Business Unit, etc. 40

41 Click to edit Technology Master title style Integrated Freight Market Intelligence (ifmi) ifmi Automated Rate Server Installs within your firewall Unlimited use Updates monthly Supports Freight Brokerage Transportation Engineering Network Design Rate Analytics Live at two major 3PLs 41

42 Click to edit Technology Master title style Batch Lane Lookup via Web Portal 42

43 Thank you! Evan Armstrong e evan@3plogistics.com p Matt Harding e mharding@chainalytics.com p