Data Centre Real Estate Market Update

Transcription

1 Data Centre Real Estate Market Update Supply and Demand in the Face of Recession 1 st December 28 Andrew Jay Head of EMEA Technology Practice Group CB Richard Ellis

2 Agenda Market Positioning Demand Supply Pricing Conclusions CB Richard Ellis Page 2

3 Market Positioning Retail Colocation Total Market Wholesale Colocation Self Build Carrier Neutral Hotels CBRE data centre research: Amsterdam, Frankfurt, London, Madrid, Paris CB Richard Ellis Page 3

4 Demand Internal Drivers Existing facilities no longer fit for purpose Insufficient power/cooling to accommodate new (blade) technology Pressure to use space for people Requirement for Zero Downtime 2N specification Landlord conflict to limit data centre plant Increasing reliance on IT Expansion of IT equipment Data centre consolidation initiatives CB Richard Ellis Page 4

5 Demand External Drivers Terrorist threat or catastrophic event 9/11 Statutory and regulatory pressures on business continuity (PAS 56) and disaster recovery (FSA regulations) Corporate Governance Sarbanes Oxley Meeting criteria for insurance purposes Meeting client expectations CB Richard Ellis Page 5

6 Demand Total Market Take-up Q1/Q2 Thousand m² Amsterdam Frankfurt London Madrid Paris Total CB Richard Ellis Page 6

7 Demand Total Market Take-up Projection Thousand m² Amsterdam Frankfurt London Madrid Paris Total CB Richard Ellis Page 7

8 Thousand m² Self Build Wholesale Colocation Retail Colocation Demand Take-up by Market Type & Sector Wholesale Colocation Model Real estate model Variety of product offerings Modular bespoke fitout is contract led FM services are optional No managed services Pricing is driven by return on build cost * * Projected take-up CB Richard Ellis Page 8

9 Demand Take-up by Market Type & Sector Self Build Wholesale Colocation 21% Corporate Systems Integrator 14 Retail Colocation 25 15% 64% Technology & Telecoms 12 55, m² Thousand m² , m² 31% 15% 54% 28 9% 152, m² (projection) 25% 66% * 27 32% 8% 6% 29? * Projected take-up 158, m² CB Richard Ellis Page 9

10 Demand Take-up By Market Type Company Location Market Type Floor Area (m²) Adapt London Retail Colocation 1,5 IBM Paris Retail Colocation 1, AT&T Paris Retail Colocation 4 German Bank London Wholesale Colocation 4, BT London Wholesale Colocation 2, Petrochemical Company London Wholesale Colocation 2, US Investment Bank London Self Build 15, SAVVIS London Self Build 6, Rackspace London Self Build 5, CB Richard Ellis Page 1

11 Demand Build Time and Cost million Months Site Sourcing Power Feasibility Planning Site Acquisition Power Payment Fitout (incl. building shell) CB Richard Ellis Page 11

12 Demand 25 Credit Crunch: LIBOR % above Bank of England base rate Demand Pipeline 1. Bear Stearns collapse credit market closes.5 2. Banks write down toxic debt Lehman Brothers collapse - Armageddon Thousand m² CB Richard Ellis Page 12 projection

13 CB Richard Ellis Page 13 New Supply Demand Demand (projected) Demand and Supply 2 Credit Crunch Impact New Supply (planned) Demand (actual) New Supply (actual) Thousand m² 25 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 26 Q1 26 Q2 26 Q3 26 Q4 27 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 28 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 29 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 21 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4

14 Supply London Colocation Market Existing colocation facilities at 1 Jan facilities, 16, m² 6 km around central London CB Richard Ellis Page 14

15 Supply London Colocation Market Existing colocation facilities at 1 Jan facilities, 16, m² New supply (pre-crunch) 25 to facilities, 46,9 m² 6 km around central London CB Richard Ellis Page 15

16 Supply London Colocation Market Existing colocation facilities at 1 Jan facilities, 16, m² New supply (pre-crunch) 25 to facilities, 46,9 m² New supply (actual) 25 to facilities, 145,9 m² 6 km around central London 64% reduction in proposed new floor space CB Richard Ellis Page 16

17 Supply Colocation Total Supply Total (RHS) Amsterdam Frankfurt London Madrid Paris Thousand m² Thousand m² CB Richard Ellis Page 17 projection

18 Supply New Supply To Market, Q1 25 to Q3 28 Developer Location Gross Size (m²) City Total (m²) Equinix Amsterdam 3, Interxion Amsterdam 4, Telecity Group Amsterdam 4, Interxion Frankfurt 2,5 11, 2,5 Colony Capital/Data IV Paris 6, Digital Realty Trust Paris 2, Equinix Paris 5,9 Interxion x2 Paris 3,4 35,3 Broadoaks London 2, Digital Realty Trust x3 Equinix x2 Infinity Pioneer Technology London London London London 2,4 12,5 7, 14, Sentrum x4 London 41, Telecity Group London 5, 11,9 15,7 CB Richard Ellis Page 18

19 Supply Future Supply Pipeline from Q4 28 to Q1 21 Developer Location Gross Size (m²) City Total (m²) Global Switch Amsterdam 8, 8, Interxion Madrid 3, 3, Colony Capital/Data IV Paris 18, Digital Realty Trust Paris 1, Equinix Paris 1, Global Switch Paris 1, Telecity Group Paris 3, 51, Equinix London 1, e-shelter London 12, Sentrum London 1, Telehouse London 12, 44, 16, CB Richard Ellis Page 19

20 Supply Vacancy Rates 6% 5% Overall Frankfurt Madrid Amsterdam London Paris 4% 3% 2% 1% % CB Richard Ellis Page 2 projection

21 Pricing Colocation Pricing Pricing trending towards per kw Retail Pricing 2,9-3,5+ per m² pa (1,25 Watts per m²) - 2,56 per kw per annum Wholesale Pricing 1,8-2,4 per m² pa (1,25 Watts per m²) - 1,68 per kw per annum Rents driven by SPECIFICATION Power density Level of service provided Supply and demand (by market and building) CB Richard Ellis Page 21

22 Conclusions Underlying demand drivers remain increased reliance on IT and need for increased processing power Credit Crunch has had relatively minor impact on Demand compared to Supply Capital constraints mean less opportunities to self build OPEX solutions preferred BEWARE fragile supply and demand dynamics CB Richard Ellis Page 22

23 Questions? Thank you If you wish to receive the quarterly CBRE data centre research bulletin, please CB Richard Ellis Page 23