LNG & LPG US Supply & Infrastructure Trends

Transcription

1 LNG & LPG US Supply & Infrastructure Trends June 19, 2013 Chris Sighinolfi, CFA (212) Jefferies LLC

2 We need to export more of our goods. Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America. So tonight, we set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America. We have to seek new markets aggressively, just as our competitors are. If America sits on the sidelines while other nations sign trade deals, we will lose the chance to create jobs on our shores. - President Obama 2010 State of the Union Address

3 US LNG A Paradigm Shift Early/Mid 2000s: Domestic dry gas production seemingly unable to grow Sizable imports from Canada Volatile pricing Growing LNG imports (viewed as the bridge supply) Present Day: Abundant domestic dry gas supplies Growing exports to Canada & Mexico Muted price volatility Pursuing LNG export

4 Shale Gas Unleashes Domestic Supply Natural Gas Rigs Hurricane Impacts Dry Gas Production (Bcf/d) /15/1997 1/15/1999 1/15/2001 1/15/2003 1/15/2005 1/15/2007 1/15/2009 1/15/2011 1/15/ Month Average Gas Rigs (LHS) Dry Gas Production (RHS) From , US gas-directed rig activity increased by >3.5x, yet daily dry gas production grew by <1% Unconventional resources changed the productive landscape, leashing ~25% growth in daily US dry gas output since 2007 and lowering the cost of supply Source: EIA & Baker Hughes

5 Affecting Flows North of the Border US Pipeline Imports from Canada US Pipeline Exports to Canada Bcf/d Bcf/d US Pipeline Net Imports From Canada Bcf/d Pipeline net imports from Canada have fallen ~45% since 2007 Source: EIA

6 South of the Border & From Seaborne Trade US Pipeline Exports to Mexico Bcf/d Pipeline exports to Mexico have more than doubled since US LNG Imports 1.50 Bcf/d While LNG flows to the US have all but ceased Source: EIA

7 Curtailing Domestic Prices $8.00 $7.25 $6.50 Gas Price ($/MMBtu) $5.75 $5.00 $4.25 $ NYMEX Strip 2015 NYMEX Strip 2016 NYMEX Strip Source: FactSet

8 And Mitigating Price Volatility $8.00 Northeast Basis Spreads ($/MMBtu) $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 ($2.00) ($4.00) ($6.00) ($8.00) Northeast Basis Spreads $8.00 Rockies Basis Spreads ($/MMBtu) $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 ($2.00) ($4.00) ($6.00) ($8.00) 4/24/2006 4/24/2007 4/24/2008 4/24/2009 4/24/2010 4/24/2011 4/24/2012 4/24/2013 Rockies Basis Spreads Source: SNL Energy Note: Northeast basis is Henry Hub to Dominion South Point; Rockies is Henry Hub to Cheyenne Plains

9 Attracting Growth From Domestic Users 60.0% Composition of US Electric Power Generation 4, % 4,000 Market Share 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 3,500 3,000 Total Gen (MM MWh) 10.0% 2, % ,000 Coal Natural Gas Nuclear All Other Total Power Generation $6.00 Y/Y Coal-to-Gas Substitution 8.0 $6.00 Coal-to-Gas Substitution Since Spot Prices ($/MMBtu) $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ (2.0) (4.0) Bcf/d (estimate) Spot Prices ($/MMBtu) $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ (2.0) Bcf/d (estimate) NYMEX Monthly Natural Gas Price (LHS) Implied Y/Y Natural Gas Fuel Switching (RHS) NYMEX Monthly Natural Gas Price (LHS) Implied Natural Gas Fuel Switching (RHS) Source: EIA, FactSet, and Jefferies estimates

10 And Interest From International Consumers Isle of Grain, UK $9.50 Altamira, Mexico $16.55 Lake Charles, LA $3.44 Canaport, NB $4.04 Cove Point, MD $3.72 Barcelona, Spain $10.15 Sakai, Japan $15.05 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil $15.07 Dahej, India $13.55 Kaohsiung, Taiwan $14.55 Bahia Blanca, Argentina $15.07 Global landing prices for LNG (July 2013) Source: Waterborne LNG

11 Catalyzing a Debate on US LNG Exports Why the Debate? The Natural Gas Act (NGA) requires the DOE to authorize exports unless they will not be consistent with the public interest The NGA provides that exports to an FTA country are deemed to be in the public interest and shall be granted without modification or delay The world s largest LNG importers do not have FTAs with the US DOE receives flood of LNG export applications following its approval of Sabine Pass for non-fta export in May, 2011 Points of Contention For Non-FTA Export: Social Policy (perception of domestic winners & losers) Economic Environmental

12 In Response, the DOE Commissioned Studies Microeconomic Impact Study (EIA January 2012) Increased domestic prices Higher domestic production Reduced domestic consumption Elevated consumer costs for natural gas and electricity Macroeconomic Impact Study (NERA December 2012) A net economic benefit results in all analyzed scenarios US economic welfare increases as the volumes of natural gas exports increases While net benefits exist, the composition of income is altered by exports

13 Meanwhile, the Permit Backlog Grows Existing North American LNG Import/Export Terminals Proposed/Potential North American LNG Import/Export Terminals Source: FERC Office of Energy Projects

14 And Projects Jockey For A Place in the Queue LNG Project Company Proposed Volume (Bcf/d) FTA Approval DOE Non- FTA Approval DOE Sabine Pass Liquefaction Cheniere Energy (LNG) 2.2 Approved Approved Freeport LNG Expansion & FLNG Liquefaction ConocoPhillips (COP) 1.4 Approved Approved Lake Charles Exports, LLC Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) & BG Group (BG) 2.0 Approved Under Review Dominion Cove Point LNG, LP Dominion Resources (D) 1.0 Approved Under Review Freeport LNG Expansion & FLNG Liquefaction ConocoPhillips (COP) 1.4 Approved Under Review Cameron LNG, LLC Sempra Energy (SRE) 1.7 Approved Under Review Jordan Cove Energy, L.P. Veresen, Inc. (VSN-TSE) 1.2 (FTA) & 0.8 (non-fta) Approved Under Review LNG Development Co, LLC N/A 1.3 Approved Under Review Cheniere Marketing, LLC Cheniere Energy (LNG) 2.1 Approved Under Review Excelerate Liquefaction Solutions I, LLC N/A 1.4 Approved Under Review Carib Energy (USA) LLC N/A 0.3 (FTA) & 0.1 (non-fta) Approved Under Review Gulf Coast LNG Export, LLC N/A 2.8 Approved Under Review Southern LNG Company, LLC El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB) 0.5 Approved Under Review Gulf LNG Liquefaction Co, LLC Kinder Morgan (KMI) & General Electric (GE) 1.5 Approved Under Review CE FLNG, LLC Cambridge Energy Group 1.1 Approved Under Review Golden Pass Products LLC Exxon Mobile (XOM), Qatar Petroleum, ConocoPhillips (COP) 2.6 Approved Under Review Pangea LNG (North America) Holdings N/A 1.1 Approved Under Review SB Pow er Solutions Inc. N/A 0.1 Approved N/A Main Pass Energy Hub, LLC N/A 3.2 Approved N/A Waller LNG Services, LLC N/A 0.2 Approved N/A Magnolia LNG, LLC N/A 0.5 Approved N/A Trunkline LNG Export, LLC Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 2.0 Approved Under Review Gasfin Development USA, LLC N/A 0.2 Approved N/A Freeport-McMoRan LLC N/A 3.2 Approved Under Review Sabine Pass Liquefaction Cheniere Energy (LNG) 0.3 Pending Approval Under Review Sabine Pass Liquefaction Cheniere Energy (LNG) 0.2 Pending Approval Under Review Venture Global LNG N/A 0.7 Pending Approval Under Review Total Applications Received 30.6 Bcf/d Bcf/d Source: DOE Office of Fossil Energy Note: Listed in the order DOE will process

15 Where Does The Process Stand Today? May 17 th - DOE Authorizes Freeport LNG for 1.4 Bcf/d Non-FTA Export 2 nd proposed facility to be authorized and first since EIA & NERA studies Dow Chemical publishes support for the decision (has an interest in the facility) May 21 st Ernest Moniz sworn in as US Energy Secretary Initially indicates further review may be needed before making any final decisions However, tells House Energy Committee on June 13 th he is committed to further decisions on export applications this year May 29 th President Obama Tells the crowd at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) fundraiser in Chicago by 2020, we ll be a net exporter of natural gas May 29 th Jon Wellinghoff announces his resignation from FERC FERC Commissioner since 2006 FERC Chairman since 2009

16 What Do We Expect? New US natural gas pipeline capacity will primarily address Supply debottlenecking & ongoing growth in gas-fired electric power generation Continued export growth to Canada and Mexico Limited new long-haul pipeline capacity expected (except FL) Diversified supplies and limited basis differentials negate need for new capacity Underutilized pipes may be repurposed Expect additional DOE & FERC approvals for non-fta LNG export Authorizations unlikely to affect near-term gas outlook Arbitrage opportunities to compress as global capacity comes online US LNG exports to link US storage to global markets Canadian LNG export opportunities to also progress Ongoing debate between consumers/suppliers over price linkages

17 Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Produced as part of the natural gas stream in many locations Separated from dry gas (methane) via gas processing NGLs separated into individual liquid products via fractionation Five component products, each with independent supply/demand factors Ethane (C2) Propane (C3) Normal Butane (C4) Isobutane (C4) Natural Gasoline (C5+) Historically linked to price of crude oil (no longer true)

18 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) LPG is composed of propane and butane Used as a fuel in heating appliances Used as an engine fuel Typically, blends have higher propane concentrations in the winter vs. butane in the summer Propane (C3) A popular fuel for rural heating and cooking ( natural gas on wheels ) Used in the production of ethylene and propylene Also used as an engine fuel and for crop drying Butane (C4) Primarily used as a blending agent for motor gasoline Also used as a feedstock for the manufacture of ethylene, propylene, and butadiene

19 NGL Values Alter Producer Behavior MMBbl NGL Supply/Demand As US natural gas prices weakened beginning in 2009, producers shifted the focus of their drilling efforts on oil and liquid-rich (NGL) plays US NGL supply is up 33% since NGLs yielded ~$10-12/MMBtu more than natural gas in Total NGL Domestic Supply Total NGL Domestic Demand New midstream processing capacity has been announced and is being constructed to keep up with the fast-acting producer community Bcf/d US Processing Capacity E 2014E 2015E Source: EIA, Bentek, and Jefferies estimates

20 Driving an Oversupply of Light-end Products NGL Barrel Composition 2012 US NGL Barrel Volume Breakdown 2012 US NGL Barrel Price Breakdown Natural Gasoline 12% Ethane 41% Natural Gasoline 30% Ethane 16% Isobutane 9% N-Butane 8% Isobutane 16% Propane 27% Propane 30% N-Butane 11% While a majority of the NGL revenue stream is derived from heavies (butane & natural gasoline), more than 70% of the composite barrel volume is light-end products (ethane & propane) Source: EIA & Bentek

21 Prompting Pricing Relationships to Break Down Year Ethane Propane N-Butane Isobutane Natural Total NGL Gasoline Barrel % 68% 81% 86% 94% 65% % 65% 77% 79% 91% 61% % 71% 83% 86% 97% 67% % 60% 71% 73% 88% 57% % 58% 74% 81% 89% 55% % 61% 79% 84% 97% 58% % 64% 81% 90% 103% 61% 1Q12 23% 51% 79% 83% 97% 51% 2Q12 18% 44% 73% 79% 92% 45% 3Q12 15% 41% 65% 74% 92% 42% 4Q12 14% 42% 78% 86% 103% 45% % 45% 74% 80% 96% 46% 2013 YTD 12% 40% 65% 67% 96% 41% '02-'11 Average 41% 66% 81% 85% 95% 63% Source: Bentek Note: Mt. Belvieu product prices vs. WTI crude prices

22 As Strong Supplies Outstrip Domestic Demand Field Level NGL Production ((MMBbls) E yr avg (MMBbls) 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% -60.0% -70.0% -80.0% NGL Component Price Relative Performance Since 2012 Ethane Propane N-Butane Isobutane Series5 Natural Gasoline NGL Composite Source: EIA & Bentek

23 Interest Grows From International Consumers Announced Propane Export Projects 1) Enterprise Expansion (1Q13) Current Capacity 133 MBbl/d Expanded Capacity 117 MBbl/d Total Capacity 91,250 MBbl/yr 2) Coastal Caverns (1Q13) Expanded Capacity 8 MBbl/d Total Capacity 3,042 MBbl/yr 3) Targa Expansion (3Q13) Current Capacity 33 MBbl/d Expanded Capacity 73 MBbl/d Total Capacity 38,933 MBbl/yr 4) Targa Expansion (3Q14) Starting Capacity 107 MBbl/d Expanded Capacity 60 MBbl/d Total Capacity 60,833 MBbl/yr 5) Vitol Expansion (4Q14) Expanded Capacity 8 MBbl/d Total Capacity 3,042 MBbl/yr 6) Energy Transfer Partners (1Q15) Expanded Capacity 200 MBbl/d Total Capacity 73,000 MBbl/yr 7) Occidental Petroleum (2015) Expanded Capacity 125 MBbl/d Total Capacity MBbl/yr Incremental Capacity Addition 592 MBbl/d MBbl/d E 2014E 2015E ~80% of current Field Level Production* *Production as of 1Q13 Propane Export Capacity (MBbl/d) ~40% CAGR in exports from E Capacity 365 Exports *Grey line denotes Jefferies estimates, which assume a 75% utilization on new capacity Source: EIA, Bentek, and Jefferies estimates

24 Where is US Propane Going? Enterprise Products Partners Propane Destinations (2012) Source: EPD Presentation

25 Limited Regulatory Hurdles = Market Access Propane Supply/Demand Analysis (MBbl/d) 2, Supply/Demand (MBbl/d) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Exports (MBbl/d) Propane Supply Propane Demand Propane Exports We expect propane exports to fundamentally tighten the domestic Supply/Demand picture by estimates assume the following: 1) 100% utilization and a 2.5 GPM recovery on incremental processing capacity; 2) 2% annual demand growth from ; 3) a 5% compound annual decline in US imports; 4) flat production from US refineries; 5) 75% utilization on new export capacity; and, 6) 75% utilization on new PDH facility capacity Source: EIA and Jefferies estimates

26 What Do We Expect? Ongoing growth in field level supplies Driven by producer activity Aided by new natural gas processing capacity Sloppy ethane market until cracking capacity comes online in ~2016 Expect widespread ethane rejection to persist Anticipate ethane will trade near Btu parity with natural gas Propane pricing to strengthen on the back of expanded US exports Assumes normalized weather Aided by Propane Dehydration (PDH) unit build-outs Butane pricing to continue decoupling from crude oil Limited near-term growth in refinery capacity Potential to capture part of the export market share Natural gasoline to maintain crude price relationship Aided by ongoing exports to Canada (via rail)

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